Friday, November 4, 2016

The Electoral College Map (11/4/16)



New State Polls (11/4/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Arizona
11/1-11/2
+/-4.12%
550 likely voters
39
47
7
+8
+1.67
California
10/22-10/30
+/-2.3%
1382 likely voters
54
30
7
+24
+22.93
Colorado
10/31-11/3
+/-3.02%
1150 likely voters
45
44
2
+1
--
Colorado
11/2-11/3
+/-4.0%
605 likely voters
43
38
6
+5
--
Colorado
11/3-11/4
+/-3.7%
704 likely voters
48
43
3
+5
+4.13
Florida
10/31
+/-2.2%
1995 registered voters
49
46
1
+3
+2.11
Georgia
11/1-11/2
+/-4.2%
538 likely voters
45
49
1
+4
--
Georgia
11/3-11/3
+/-3.1%
1000 likely voters
46
48
2
+2
+3.05
Indiana
10/30-11/1
+/-4.9%
399 registered voters
39
49
9
+10
--
Indiana
11/1-11/3
+/-4.0%
600 likely voters
37
48
6
+11
+9.71
Iowa
11/1-11/2
+/-3.0%
1076 likely voters
41
44
6
+3
--
Iowa
11/1-11/3
+/-3.6%
700 likely voters
41
44
5
+3
+1.17
Kansas
9/1-10/13
+/-3.2%
892 likely voters
39
47
0
+8
--
Kansas
11/1-11/3
+/-5.5%
313 likely voters
34
58
0
+24
+12.48
Massachusetts
10/23-11/2
+/-5.0%
417 likely voters
56
26
7
+30
+23.92
Michigan
11/1-11/3
+/-4.0%
600 likely voters
42
38
13
+4
--
Michigan
11/3-11/4
+/-3.2%
957 likely voters
46
41
6
+5
+6.86
Missouri
10/31-11/1
+/-3.0%
1083 likely voters
41
52
7
+11
+8.13
Nevada
10/31-11/1
+/-3.7%
688 likely voters
48
45
7
+3
+1.02
New Hampshire
10/31-11/1
+/-3.5%
781 likely voters
48
43
9
+5
--
New Hampshire
10/28-11/2
+/-4.28%
695 likely voters
44
44
4
+/-0
--
New Hampshire
11/1-11/2
+/-2.0%
1001 registered voters
41
43
3
+2
+4.75
New Jersey
10/27-11/2
+/-3.75%
678 likely voters
51
40
6
+11
+11.79
New Mexico
11/1-11/2
+/-3.0%
1102 likely voters
46
43
1
+3
+7.21
North Carolina
10/31-11/1
+/-2.9%
1169 likely voters
49
47
4
+2
+1.46
Pennsylvania
10/31
+/-1.9%
2606 registered voters
47
46
3
+1
--
Pennsylvania
10/31-11/1
+/-3.0%
1050 likely voters
48
44
8
+4
--
Pennsylvania
11/2-11/3
+/-4.4%
504 likely voters
46
46
4
+/-0
+5.16
Utah
10/30-10/31
+/-2.6%
1424 registered voters
29
35
8
+6
--
Utah
11/1-11/3
+/-4.38%
500 likely voters
24
33
7
+9
+9.631
Virginia
10/29-11/2
+/-3.8%
654 likely voters
45
38
9
+7
--
Virginia
11/3-11/4
+/-2.8%
1238 likely voters
48
43
4
+5
+6.35
Wisconsin
10/31-11/1
+/-4.4%
500 likely voters
44
38
9
+6
--
Wisconsin
10/31-11/1
+/-3.3%
891 likely voters
48
41
10
+7
+6.43
1Excluding the two head-to-head online panel surveys in Utah lowers Trump's average advantage there to 7.95 points. Those polls are outliers in view of the majority of surveys in the Beehive state during 2016 and serve as an anchor on the data. The change would shift Utah within the Lean Trump category, closer to Toss Up Trump. McMullin garnered 28% in the Y2 survey and 24% support in the Gravis survey. He currently has an FHQ graduated weighted average share of support of 23.23%, trailing both Trump and Clinton.


--
Changes (11/4/16)
4 more days.
Changes (November 4)
StateBeforeAfter
New HampshireLean ClintonToss Up Clinton

There were another 34 survey releases from across 20 states to close the final full work week before election day. The partisan consolidation that happened for Hillary Clinton after the first debate continued for Donald Trump following the latest round of FBI/emails revelations. That has triggered a subtle but consistent narrowing of the margins in Clinton lean and toss up states.

But those subtle shifts have not translated to many changes to the alignment of states on the Electoral College Spectrum and the shading of states has been steady. However, while no states jumped the partisan line changing the distribution of electoral votes, New Hampshire did inch across the Lean/Toss Up line it has recently been hovering around. But like Colorado, the Granite state remains tilted in Clinton's direction.

Elsewhere, both Iowa and Nevada shifted off the Watch List, moving deeper into their respective candidate's columns. Both are still toss ups, but neither is within one point of pushing across the partisan line any longer. That leaves Ohio as the only state at FHQ that is within range of changing categories and altering the electoral vote breakdown.

On the Electoral College Spectrum, there was only some minor shuffling among a small group of solid Trump states. Utah once again flip-flopped spots with Indiana and the far end of the Lean Trump area and the new polling out of Kansas pushed the Sunflower state past South Dakota among the Strong Trump states.

Again, it is a steady picture here heading into the last weekend before next Tuesday's election.


--


The Electoral College Spectrum1
MD-102
(13)
RI-4
(162)
NH-4
(263)
TX-38
(161)
TN-11
(61)
HI-4
(17)
NJ-14
(176)
CO-94
(272 | 275)
SC-9
(123)
AR-6
(50)
VT-3
(20)
OR-7
(183)
FL-29
(301 | 266)
MO-10
(114)
ND-3
(44)
MA-11
(31)
NM-5
(188)
NC-15
(316 | 237)
UT-6
(104)
NE-53
(41)
CA-55
(86)
MN-10
(198)
NV-6
(322 | 222)
IN-11
(98)
KY-8
(36)
NY-29
(115)
MI-16
(214)
OH-18
(340 | 216)
MS-6
(87)
AL-9
(28)
IL-20+13
(136)
ME-23
(216)
IA-6
(198)
SD-3
(81)
ID-4
(19)
DE-3
(139)
WI-10
(226)
AZ-11
(192)
KS-6
(78)
WV-5
(15)
WA-12
(151)
VA-13
(239)
GA-16+13
(181)
LA-8
(72)
OK-7
(10)
CT-7
(158)
PA-20
(259)
AK-3
(164)
MT-3
(64)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.
To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above.

4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Alaska
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
Colorado
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Indiana
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Ohio
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
Oregon
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Utah
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (11/3/16)

The Electoral College Map (11/2/16)

The Electoral College Map (11/1/16)

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