New State Polls (11/4/16)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona
|
11/1-11/2
|
+/-4.12%
|
550 likely voters
|
39
|
47
|
7
|
+8
|
+1.67
| |
California
|
10/22-10/30
|
+/-2.3%
|
1382 likely voters
|
54
|
30
|
7
|
+24
|
+22.93
| |
Colorado
|
10/31-11/3
|
+/-3.02%
|
1150 likely voters
|
45
|
44
|
2
|
+1
|
--
| |
Colorado
|
11/2-11/3
|
+/-4.0%
|
605 likely voters
|
43
|
38
|
6
|
+5
|
--
| |
Colorado
|
11/3-11/4
|
+/-3.7%
|
704 likely voters
|
48
|
43
|
3
|
+5
|
+4.13
| |
Florida
|
10/31
|
+/-2.2%
|
1995 registered voters
|
49
|
46
|
1
|
+3
|
+2.11
| |
Georgia
|
11/1-11/2
|
+/-4.2%
|
538 likely voters
|
45
|
49
|
1
|
+4
|
--
| |
Georgia
|
11/3-11/3
|
+/-3.1%
|
1000 likely voters
|
46
|
48
|
2
|
+2
|
+3.05
| |
Indiana
|
10/30-11/1
|
+/-4.9%
|
399 registered voters
|
39
|
49
|
9
|
+10
|
--
| |
Indiana
|
11/1-11/3
|
+/-4.0%
|
600 likely voters
|
37
|
48
|
6
|
+11
|
+9.71
| |
Iowa
|
11/1-11/2
|
+/-3.0%
|
1076 likely voters
|
41
|
44
|
6
|
+3
|
--
| |
Iowa
|
11/1-11/3
|
+/-3.6%
|
700 likely voters
|
41
|
44
|
5
|
+3
|
+1.17
| |
Kansas
|
9/1-10/13
|
+/-3.2%
|
892 likely voters
|
39
|
47
|
0
|
+8
|
--
| |
Kansas
|
11/1-11/3
|
+/-5.5%
|
313 likely voters
|
34
|
58
|
0
|
+24
|
+12.48
| |
Massachusetts
|
10/23-11/2
|
+/-5.0%
|
417 likely voters
|
56
|
26
|
7
|
+30
|
+23.92
| |
Michigan
|
11/1-11/3
|
+/-4.0%
|
600 likely voters
|
42
|
38
|
13
|
+4
|
--
| |
Michigan
|
11/3-11/4
|
+/-3.2%
|
957 likely voters
|
46
|
41
|
6
|
+5
|
+6.86
| |
Missouri
|
10/31-11/1
|
+/-3.0%
|
1083 likely voters
|
41
|
52
|
7
|
+11
|
+8.13
| |
Nevada
|
10/31-11/1
|
+/-3.7%
|
688 likely voters
|
48
|
45
|
7
|
+3
|
+1.02
| |
New Hampshire
|
10/31-11/1
|
+/-3.5%
|
781 likely voters
|
48
|
43
|
9
|
+5
|
--
| |
New Hampshire
|
10/28-11/2
|
+/-4.28%
|
695 likely voters
|
44
|
44
|
4
|
+/-0
|
--
| |
New Hampshire
|
11/1-11/2
|
+/-2.0%
|
1001 registered voters
|
41
|
43
|
3
|
+2
|
+4.75
| |
New Jersey
|
10/27-11/2
|
+/-3.75%
|
678 likely voters
|
51
|
40
|
6
|
+11
|
+11.79
| |
New Mexico
|
11/1-11/2
|
+/-3.0%
|
1102 likely voters
|
46
|
43
|
1
|
+3
|
+7.21
| |
North Carolina
|
10/31-11/1
|
+/-2.9%
|
1169 likely voters
|
49
|
47
|
4
|
+2
|
+1.46
| |
Pennsylvania
|
10/31
|
+/-1.9%
|
2606 registered voters
|
47
|
46
|
3
|
+1
|
--
| |
Pennsylvania
|
10/31-11/1
|
+/-3.0%
|
1050 likely voters
|
48
|
44
|
8
|
+4
|
--
| |
Pennsylvania
|
11/2-11/3
|
+/-4.4%
|
504 likely voters
|
46
|
46
|
4
|
+/-0
|
+5.16
| |
Utah
|
10/30-10/31
|
+/-2.6%
|
1424 registered voters
|
29
|
35
|
8
|
+6
|
--
| |
Utah
|
11/1-11/3
|
+/-4.38%
|
500 likely voters
|
24
|
33
|
7
|
+9
|
+9.631
| |
Virginia
|
10/29-11/2
|
+/-3.8%
|
654 likely voters
|
45
|
38
|
9
|
+7
|
--
| |
Virginia
|
11/3-11/4
|
+/-2.8%
|
1238 likely voters
|
48
|
43
|
4
|
+5
|
+6.35
| |
Wisconsin
|
10/31-11/1
|
+/-4.4%
|
500 likely voters
|
44
|
38
|
9
|
+6
|
--
| |
Wisconsin
|
10/31-11/1
|
+/-3.3%
|
891 likely voters
|
48
|
41
|
10
|
+7
|
+6.43
| |
1Excluding the two head-to-head online panel surveys in Utah lowers Trump's average advantage there to 7.95 points. Those polls are outliers in view of the majority of surveys in the Beehive state during 2016 and serve as an anchor on the data. The change would shift Utah within the Lean Trump category, closer to Toss Up Trump. McMullin garnered 28% in the Y2 survey and 24% support in the Gravis survey. He currently has an FHQ graduated weighted average share of support of 23.23%, trailing both Trump and Clinton.
| |||||||||
--
Changes (11/4/16)
4 more days.
| Changes (November 4) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Hampshire | Lean Clinton | Toss Up Clinton | |
There were another 34 survey releases from across 20 states to close the final full work week before election day. The partisan consolidation that happened for Hillary Clinton after the first debate continued for Donald Trump following the latest round of FBI/emails revelations. That has triggered a subtle but consistent narrowing of the margins in Clinton lean and toss up states.
But those subtle shifts have not translated to many changes to the alignment of states on the Electoral College Spectrum and the shading of states has been steady. However, while no states jumped the partisan line changing the distribution of electoral votes, New Hampshire did inch across the Lean/Toss Up line it has recently been hovering around. But like Colorado, the Granite state remains tilted in Clinton's direction.
Elsewhere, both Iowa and Nevada shifted off the Watch List, moving deeper into their respective candidate's columns. Both are still toss ups, but neither is within one point of pushing across the partisan line any longer. That leaves Ohio as the only state at FHQ that is within range of changing categories and altering the electoral vote breakdown.
On the Electoral College Spectrum, there was only some minor shuffling among a small group of solid Trump states. Utah once again flip-flopped spots with Indiana and the far end of the Lean Trump area and the new polling out of Kansas pushed the Sunflower state past South Dakota among the Strong Trump states.
Again, it is a steady picture here heading into the last weekend before next Tuesday's election.
--
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
MD-102
(13)
|
RI-4
(162)
|
NH-4
(263)
|
TX-38
(161)
|
TN-11
(61)
|
HI-4
(17)
|
NJ-14
(176)
|
CO-94
(272 | 275)
|
SC-9
(123)
|
AR-6
(50)
|
VT-3
(20)
|
OR-7
(183)
|
FL-29
(301 | 266) |
MO-10
(114)
|
ND-3
(44)
|
MA-11
(31)
|
NM-5
(188)
|
NC-15
(316 | 237) |
UT-6
(104)
|
NE-53
(41)
|
CA-55
(86)
|
MN-10
(198)
|
NV-6
(322 | 222)
|
IN-11
(98)
|
KY-8
(36)
|
NY-29
(115)
|
MI-16
(214)
|
OH-18
(340 | 216)
|
MS-6
(87)
|
AL-9
(28)
|
IL-20+13
(136)
|
ME-23
(216)
|
IA-6
(198)
|
SD-3
(81)
|
ID-4
(19)
|
DE-3
(139)
|
WI-10
(226)
|
AZ-11
(192)
|
KS-6
(78)
|
WV-5
(15)
|
WA-12
(151)
|
VA-13
(239)
|
GA-16+13
(181)
|
LA-8
(72)
|
OK-7
(10)
|
CT-7
(158)
|
PA-20
(259)
|
AK-3
(164)
|
MT-3
(64)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above. 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Alaska
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Colorado
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Indiana
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Mississippi
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Oregon
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Strong Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Utah
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (11/3/16)
The Electoral College Map (11/2/16)
The Electoral College Map (11/1/16)
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