New State Polls (11/5/16)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Colorado
|
11/1-11/2
|
+/-2.9%
|
1125 registered voters
|
40
|
40
|
3
|
+/-0
|
+4.00
| |
Iowa
|
11/1-11/3
|
+/-4.4%
|
500 likely voters
|
44
|
43
|
7
|
+1
|
--
| |
Iowa
|
11/1-11/4
|
+/-3.5%
|
800 likely voters
|
39
|
46
|
6
|
+7
|
+1.33
| |
Pennsylvania
|
11/1-11/2
|
+/-3.1%
|
1016 registered voters
|
47
|
45
|
3
|
+2
|
--
| |
Pennsylvania
|
10/30-11/4
|
+/-5.5%
|
405 likely voters
|
44
|
40
|
5
|
+4
|
+5.08
| |
Washington
|
10/31-11/2
|
+/-3.8%
|
681 likely voters
|
50
|
38
|
4
|
+12
|
+12.52
| |
--
Changes (11/5/16)
3 days left.
Compared to the Saturday before election day four years ago, the 2016 edition was fairly slow. Whereas there were 20 polls released on November 3, 2012, there were just six new surveys added to the dataset with just three days remaining until the election.
The polls added did little to change the picture painted here at FHQ, but underneath that, the trajectory of the race continues to indicate a narrowing of the margins in the states where Clinton is ahead in the one to seven point range. Notably, that included a handful of surveys out of Colorado and Pennsylvania. No, the change was not significant in either, but both continued to track toward the partisan line and toward Trump. But both the Centennial and Keystone states remain clustered on the Watch List around that Lean/Toss Up line (+5) on the Clinton side of the ledger.
Other than that, there is only so much that six polls can do in the grand scheme of things. Iowa, a Toss Up Trump state since the conventions, showed no signs of flipping back to Clinton. If anything, the Hawkeye state, while still close, is seemingly firmly rooted on the Trump side of the partisan line.
The map, Electoral College Spectrum and Watch List all remain unchanged from a day ago.
--
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
MD-102
(13)
|
RI-4
(162)
|
NH-4
(263)
|
TX-38
(161)
|
TN-11
(61)
|
HI-4
(17)
|
NJ-14
(176)
|
CO-94
(272 | 275)
|
SC-9
(123)
|
AR-6
(50)
|
VT-3
(20)
|
OR-7
(183)
|
FL-29
(301 | 266) |
MO-10
(114)
|
ND-3
(44)
|
MA-11
(31)
|
NM-5
(188)
|
NC-15
(316 | 237) |
UT-6
(104)
|
NE-53
(41)
|
CA-55
(86)
|
MN-10
(198)
|
NV-6
(322 | 222)
|
IN-11
(98)
|
KY-8
(36)
|
NY-29
(115)
|
MI-16
(214)
|
OH-18
(340 | 216)
|
MS-6
(87)
|
AL-9
(28)
|
IL-20+13
(136)
|
ME-23
(216)
|
IA-6
(198)
|
SD-3
(81)
|
ID-4
(19)
|
DE-3
(139)
|
WI-10
(226)
|
AZ-11
(192)
|
KS-6
(78)
|
WV-5
(15)
|
WA-12
(151)
|
VA-13
(239)
|
GA-16+13
(181)
|
LA-8
(72)
|
OK-7
(10)
|
CT-7
(158)
|
PA-20
(259)
|
AK-3
(164)
|
MT-3
(64)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above. 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Alaska
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Colorado
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Indiana
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Mississippi
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Oregon
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Strong Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Utah
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (11/4/16)
The Electoral College Map (11/3/16)
The Electoral College Map (11/2/16)
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