New State Polls (11/7/16)
| |||||||||
Morning Polls
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Colorado
|
11/1-11/2
|
+/-2.27%
|
1863 likely voters
|
42
|
41
|
6
|
+1
|
+3.91
| |
Florida
|
11/1-11/2
|
+/-2.02%
|
2352 likely voters
|
45
|
48
|
3
|
+3
|
--
| |
Florida
|
11/3-11/6
|
+/-3.3%
|
884 likely voters
|
46
|
45
|
5
|
+1
|
+1.98
| |
Georgia
|
11/6
|
+/-2.8%
|
1200 likely voters
|
46
|
49
|
2
|
+3
|
+3.04
| |
Missouri
|
11/4-11/5
|
+/-3.5%
|
750 likely voters
|
41
|
47
|
4
|
+6
|
+8.02
| |
Nevada
|
11/1-11/2
|
+/-2.31%
|
1793 likely voters
|
45
|
46
|
4
|
+1
|
--
| |
Nevada
|
11/4-11/5
|
+/-3.9%
|
600 likely voters
|
47
|
46
|
2
|
+1
|
+0.96
| |
New Hampshire
|
11/4-11/5
|
+/-3.0%
|
1000 likely voters
|
45
|
44
|
3
|
+1
|
--
| |
New Hampshire
|
11/3-11/6
|
+/-3.7%
|
707 likely voters
|
49
|
38
|
4
|
+11
|
+4.82
| |
New Mexico
|
11/6
|
+/-1.8%
|
8439 likely voters
|
46
|
44
|
1
|
+2
|
+6.44
| |
North Carolina
|
11/1-11/2
|
+/-1.92%
|
2596 likely voters
|
45
|
48
|
2
|
+3
|
--
| |
North Carolina
|
11/3-11/6
|
+/-3.3%
|
870 likely voters
|
47
|
45
|
4
|
+2
|
--
| |
North Carolina
|
11/4-11/6
|
+/-3.5%
|
800 likely voters
|
44
|
44
|
6
|
+/-0
|
+1.36
| |
Ohio
|
11/1-11/2
|
+/-1.94%
|
2557 likely voters
|
44
|
45
|
3
|
+1
|
--
| |
Ohio
|
10/31-11/3
|
--
|
1194 likely voters
|
40
|
43
|
2
|
+3
|
--
| |
Ohio
|
11/4-11/5
|
+/-3.2%
|
900 likely voters
|
39
|
46
|
6
|
+7
|
+0.01
| |
Pennsylvania
|
11/1-11/2
|
+/-1.89%
|
2683 likely voters
|
46
|
45
|
3
|
+1
|
+5.00
| |
Virginia
|
11/1-11/2
|
+/-1.77%
|
3076 likely voters
|
46
|
44
|
3
|
+2
|
--
| |
Virginia
|
11/4-11/6
|
+/-3.6%
|
1193 likely voters
|
48
|
42
|
5
|
+6
|
+6.20
| |
Wisconsin
|
11/1-11/2
|
+/-1.88%
|
2720 likely voters
|
49
|
41
|
4
|
+8
|
+6.49
| |
Afternoon Polls
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
Arizona
|
11/4-11/6
|
+/-4.12%
|
550 likely voters
|
44
|
47
|
1
|
+3
|
+1.71
| |
Florida
|
11/5-11/6
|
+/-3.4%
|
853 likely voters
|
48
|
46
|
1
|
+2
|
--
| |
Florida
|
11/6
|
+/-2.89%
|
1100 likely voters
|
46
|
50
|
1
|
+4
|
+1.89
| |
Georgia
|
11/3-11/5
|
+/-4.6%
|
995 likely voters
|
43
|
49
|
3
|
+6
|
+3.14
| |
Michigan
|
11/6
|
+/-2.77%
|
1200 likely voters
|
47
|
49
|
1
|
+2
|
+6.51
| |
Nevada
|
11/1-11/4
|
+/-3.02%
|
1100 likely voters
|
45
|
50
|
2
|
+5
|
+0.80
| |
Pennsylvania
|
11/3-11/5
|
+/-2.68%
|
1300 likely voters
|
47
|
48
|
2
|
+1
|
--
| |
Pennsylvania
|
11/3-11/5
|
+/-4.3%
|
931 likely voters
|
45
|
43
|
4
|
+2
|
+4.84
| |
Utah
|
11/3-11/5
|
+/-2.67%
|
1350 likely voters
|
30
|
40
|
2
|
+10
|
--
| |
Utah
|
11/3-11/5
|
+/-4.9%
|
762 likely voters
|
23
|
40
|
4
|
+17
|
+9.971
| |
Evening Polls
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
Florida
|
11/1-11/2
|
+/-2.8%
|
1220 registered voters
|
46
|
45
|
2
|
+1
|
+1.87
| |
Michigan
|
11/1-11/4
|
+/-3.0%
|
1079 registered voters
|
46
|
41
|
3
|
+5
|
+6.46
| |
Nevada
|
11/3-11/6
|
+/-2.9%
|
1158 likely voters
|
45
|
43
|
5
|
+2
|
+0.83
| |
New Mexico
|
11/1-11/2
|
+/-2.7%
|
1327 registered voters
|
45
|
37
|
2
|
+8
|
+6.58
| |
North Carolina
|
11/1-11/4
|
+/-2.8%
|
1250 registered voters
|
46
|
45
|
3
|
+1
|
+1.36
| |
Virginia
|
11/1-11/4
|
+/-2.7%
|
1362 registered voters
|
47
|
42
|
3
|
+5
|
--
| |
Virginia
|
11/2-11/6
|
+/-4.4%
|
802 likely voters
|
45
|
41
|
14
|
+4
|
+6.12
| |
1Excluding the two head-to-head online panel surveys in Utah lowers Trump's average advantage there to 8.48 points. Those polls are outliers in view of the majority of surveys in the Beehive state during 2016 and serve as an anchor on the data. The change would shift Utah within the Lean Trump category, closer to Toss Up Trump. McMullin garnered 24% in the YouGov survey and 25% support in the Trafalgar survey. He currently has an FHQ graduated weighted average share of support of 23.39%, trailing both Trump and Clinton.
| |||||||||
--
Changes (11/7/16) -- Early edition
One last day.
| Changes (November 7 -- Morning) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio | Toss Up Clinton | Toss Up Trump | |
- Ohio jumped the partisan line from Toss Up Clinton to Toss Up Trump, but note the average: +0.01. The Buckeye state is close here at FHQ.
- Nevada rejoins the Watch List, slipping under the Clinton +1 threshold, but the Silver state has been hovering there.
- Colorado slides off the Watch List. It is now just a bit more than a point from the Lean/Toss Up line (+5) on the Clinton side of the partisan line.
- The ZiaPoll survey of New Mexico -- given the sample size, it was the whole state -- drew the average in a bit further. It has tracked down to about a six and a half point lead for Clinton in the Land of Enchantment. That pushed New Mexico down to the lower half of the Lean Clinton group of states on the Electoral College Spectrum.
| Changes (November 7 -- Afternoon) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | Lean Clinton | Toss Up Clinton | |
- The Trafalgar and YouGov surveys were enough of a drag on the FHQ average in Pennsylvania that the Keystone state slipped just under the Lean/Toss Up line. Pennsylvania, then, follows New Hampshire as states that have until recently been just above that line but have hopped over it into the Toss Up Clinton area. Both remain clustered around that line, however; just on the opposite side.
- That move also flips Pennsylvania on the Watch List, but keeps it in the same position on the Spectrum.
- The Trafalgar survey of Michigan is the first to show Trump ahead since 2015. It may be a sign of something in the Great Lakes state or it could be an outlier (balancing out that MSU survey from last week). Either way, it decreased the average margin enough to ease Michigan past Maine on the Spectrum.
- Also, Utah once again traded spots with Indiana, pushing to the very end of the Lean Trump area. The new polls out of the Beehive state nudge Trump even closer to 40 percent in the averages. Again, that will be enough to keep Clinton and McMullin at bay there and Utah in the Republican column.
- The Breibart wave of last minute Gravis polling releases mostly confirmed the state of the race in each of the states. There was some shuffling among the New Mexico, Michigan, Wisconsin cluster in the Lean Clinton area. New Mexico bounced back slightly after pushing down that column earlier in the day. Everything else held steady.
Barring anything unforeseen or any straggler surveys, this is likely what the final map will look like on election day. There are a few polls yet to be added into the dataset (the non-Breitbart wave of Gravis polls), but the expectation is that that will not alter the bottom line any if at all. It will not where it counts in any event: Clinton 322, Trump 216.
--
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
MD-102
(13)
|
RI-4
(162)
|
NH-4
(263)
|
TX-38
(161)
|
TN-11
(61)
|
HI-4
(17)
|
NJ-14
(176)
|
CO-94
(272 | 275)
|
SC-9
(123)
|
AR-6
(50)
|
VT-3
(20)
|
OR-7
(183)
|
FL-29
(301 | 266) |
MO-10
(114)
|
ND-3
(44)
|
MA-11
(31)
|
MN-10
(193)
|
NC-15
(316 | 237) |
IN-11
(104)
|
NE-53
(41)
|
CA-55
(86)
|
ME-23
(195)
|
NV-6
(322 | 222)
|
UT-6
(93)
|
KY-8
(36)
|
NY-29
(115)
|
NM-5
(200)
|
OH-18
(216)
|
MS-6
(87)
|
AL-9
(28)
|
IL-20+13
(136)
|
WI-10
(210)
|
IA-6
(198)
|
SD-3
(81)
|
ID-4
(19)
|
DE-3
(139)
|
MI-16
(226)
|
AZ-11
(192)
|
KS-6
(78)
|
WV-5
(15)
|
WA-12
(151)
|
VA-13
(239)
|
GA-16+13
(181)
|
LA-8
(72)
|
OK-7
(10)
|
CT-7
(158)
|
PA-20
(259)
|
AK-3
(164)
|
MT-3
(64)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above. 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Alaska
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Indiana
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Mississippi
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Oregon
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Strong Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Utah
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (11/6/16)
The Electoral College Map (11/5/16)
The Electoral College Map (11/4/16)
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