The 2016 Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
DC-3
HI-4
(7)2
| CT-7
(173)
| MI-16
(248 | 306)
| ME CD2-1 SC-9
(126)
|
TN-11
(60)
|
CA-55
(62)
| DE-3
(176)
| PA-20 (268 | 290) | AK-3
(116)
| AR-6
(49)
|
MA-11
(73)
| OR-7
(183)
| WI-103 (278 | 270) | MS -6
(113)
| AL-9
(43)
|
MD-10
(83)
|
NM-5
(188)
| FL-29 NE CD2-1
(260)
| UT-6
(107)
| SD-3
(34)
|
VT-3
(86)
| VA-13
(201)
| AZ-11
(230)
| MO-10
(101)
| KY-8
(31)
|
NY-29
(115)
| CO-9
(210)
| NC-15
(219)
| IN-11
(91)
| ID-4
(23)
|
IL-20
(135)
| ME-2
(212)
|
GA-16
(204)
| LA-8
(80)
| ND-3
(19)
|
WA-12
(147)
|
NV-6
(218)
| OH-18
(188)
| MT-3
(72)
| OK-7
(16)
|
RI-4
(151)
|
MN-10
(228)
| TX-38
(170)
| KS-6 NE CD1-1
(69)
|
WV-5
(9)
|
ME CD1-1 NJ-14
(166)
| NH-4
(232)
| IA-6
(132)
| NE-2
(62)
|
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Clinton won all the states up to and including Wisconsin (Trump's toss up states through Wisconsin), she would have 278 electoral votes. Clinton's numbers are only totaled through the states she would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics. 3 Wisconsin is the state where Trump crossed the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is. | ||||
Saturday, December 31, 2016
The 2016 Electoral College Spectrum
Final version (certified results)
Tuesday, November 8, 2016
2016 Election Night
11/28/16 3:30pm:
The Michigan results are certified, handing the Great Lakes state to Trump.
11/14/16 5:30pm:
The Trump camp failed to request a recount in New Hampshire before the 5pm deadline. Clinton takes the Granite state's four electoral votes.
11/10/16 7:45pm:
Arizona added to Trump's column.
11/9/16 11:30am:
The AP calls Minnesota for Clinton. That is a narrow hold for Democrats.
11/9/16 2:40am:
Wisconsin puts Trump over the top; another flip for the Republican.
11/9/16 2:15am:
Alaska stays in the Republican column.
11/9/16 2:10am:
And the second congressional district in Nebraska is called for Trump.
11/9/16 2am:
The Maine call is in and we have the second electoral vote split in the Maine/Nebraska era. Maine's second congressional district follows Nebraska's second district in 2008 in going against the statewide result. Clinton wins the state and CD1 while Trump takes CD2.
11/9/16 1:40pm:
Pennsylvania flips to Trump. That 20 electoral votes puts Trump within range of 270 (and with some networks having called Wisconsin for him).
11/9/16 12:25am:
Clinton holds Nevada.
11:35pm:
Trump flips Iowa; something that has been in the cards since at least the conventions. Trump also holds Georgia after a lengthy wait.
11:25pm:
Utah goes for Trump. He will lag behind Romney there, but still take the Beehive state with relative ease.
11:15pm:
North Carolina is a Republican hold for Trump. Oregon is another non-Rust Belt leaner to stay with the Democrats.
11pm:
The next round of closings out west put California, Hawaii and Washington into the Clinton category. Trump takes Idaho. The close night in the Rust Belt extends to the electoral vote count for the time being.
10:55pm:
Florida follows Ohio as a Trump flip. Understatement alert: That is a big one.
10:40pm:
Colorado stays in the blue column. The outside the Rust Belt/midwest leaners are falling into place for Clinton. Those in that region are tighter.
10:25pm:
Ohio goes to Trump and Virginia to Clinton. One of those is bigger symbolically than the other.
10:10pm:
Missouri to Trump and New Mexico to Clinton.
10pm:
Closings in Arizona, Iowa, Nevada, and Utah. No calls. Montana to Trump.
9:30pm:
Arkansas and Louisiana turn red and Connecticut falls into Clinton's column.
9:00pm:
An extended radio hit pulled FHQ away. We will feel in the gaps in time. As for now a big jump for both candidates.
7:30pm:
West Virginia to Trump. North Carolina and Ohio are too close to call as of now.
7:00pm:
Wasting no time, Indiana and Kentucky go Trump and Vermont is added to Clinton's column.
6:00pm:
Let's color this thing in. FHQ will have maps and comments both here and on twitter (@FHQ) all evening.
--
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (11/8/16) -- Election Day
The Electoral College Map (11/7/16)
The Electoral College Map (11/6/16)
Follow FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.
The Michigan results are certified, handing the Great Lakes state to Trump.
11/14/16 5:30pm:
The Trump camp failed to request a recount in New Hampshire before the 5pm deadline. Clinton takes the Granite state's four electoral votes.
11/10/16 7:45pm:
Arizona added to Trump's column.
11/9/16 11:30am:
The AP calls Minnesota for Clinton. That is a narrow hold for Democrats.
11/9/16 2:40am:
Wisconsin puts Trump over the top; another flip for the Republican.
11/9/16 2:15am:
Alaska stays in the Republican column.
11/9/16 2:10am:
And the second congressional district in Nebraska is called for Trump.
11/9/16 2am:
The Maine call is in and we have the second electoral vote split in the Maine/Nebraska era. Maine's second congressional district follows Nebraska's second district in 2008 in going against the statewide result. Clinton wins the state and CD1 while Trump takes CD2.
11/9/16 1:40pm:
Pennsylvania flips to Trump. That 20 electoral votes puts Trump within range of 270 (and with some networks having called Wisconsin for him).
11/9/16 12:25am:
Clinton holds Nevada.
11:35pm:
Trump flips Iowa; something that has been in the cards since at least the conventions. Trump also holds Georgia after a lengthy wait.
11:25pm:
Utah goes for Trump. He will lag behind Romney there, but still take the Beehive state with relative ease.
11:15pm:
North Carolina is a Republican hold for Trump. Oregon is another non-Rust Belt leaner to stay with the Democrats.
11pm:
The next round of closings out west put California, Hawaii and Washington into the Clinton category. Trump takes Idaho. The close night in the Rust Belt extends to the electoral vote count for the time being.
10:55pm:
Florida follows Ohio as a Trump flip. Understatement alert: That is a big one.
10:40pm:
Colorado stays in the blue column. The outside the Rust Belt/midwest leaners are falling into place for Clinton. Those in that region are tighter.
10:25pm:
Ohio goes to Trump and Virginia to Clinton. One of those is bigger symbolically than the other.
10:10pm:
Missouri to Trump and New Mexico to Clinton.
10pm:
Closings in Arizona, Iowa, Nevada, and Utah. No calls. Montana to Trump.
9:30pm:
Arkansas and Louisiana turn red and Connecticut falls into Clinton's column.
9:00pm:
An extended radio hit pulled FHQ away. We will feel in the gaps in time. As for now a big jump for both candidates.
7:30pm:
West Virginia to Trump. North Carolina and Ohio are too close to call as of now.
7:00pm:
Wasting no time, Indiana and Kentucky go Trump and Vermont is added to Clinton's column.
6:00pm:
Let's color this thing in. FHQ will have maps and comments both here and on twitter (@FHQ) all evening.
--
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (11/8/16) -- Election Day
The Electoral College Map (11/7/16)
The Electoral College Map (11/6/16)
Follow FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.
The Electoral College Map (11/8/16) -- Election Day
Changes (11/8/16):
Election Day.
As there were only a few more polls added to the mix on the final day of the 2016 campaign -- or in just under the wire yesterday -- there were only a few subtle changes to the figures here at FHQ.
- South Carolina pushed past Texas toward the partisan line on the Electoral College Spectrum below, but neither will budge from the Trump column. Both had at various points shown to be much closer than normal. Neither, however, will end up anywhere other than red as the results trickle in.
- Wisconsin once again traded spots with Michigan on the Spectrum. Similar to the two Trump states above, neither state seems poised to jump the partisan line away from Clinton. The trajectory of the race has headed in that general direction here at the end, but it is likely that that was more consolidation of partisan support (for Trump) than any wholesale shift away from Clinton or the Democrats. The temptation is there to suggest that the tightening in states like Michigan and Wisconsin is perhaps a reversion to the pre-Obama mean for the pair. Yet, that simply is not the case. Both are within range of exactly where they were in the Obama-Romney race four years ago.
- The map and Watch List remained unchanged from a day ago.
Changes since June 13 (first map of the cycle):
Rather than a noisy race, the opposite occurred instead. It has been a steady race through the lens of the graduated weighted average FHQ utilizes. Yes, that is largely a function of methodology. As the dataset grows -- as the number of polls increase -- shocks become less likely. Note, however, that even with the pedestrian methodology and the limitations it carries, FHQ ended up where a great many of the more sophisticated models are. We will have more on this in the aftermath of the election, but for now, what has changed since June:
- The map always seemingly had 2012 as a jumping off point. Most presidential elections tend to build on the previous elections. The order of states remains largely the same and the movement tends to be more of a uniform shift one way or the other (with exceptions -- see Utah, 2016).
- If 2012 was the starting point, then the first map was the 2012 Obama states plus North Carolina and Arizona. Arizona pushed back across the partisan line toward Trump around the conventions and settled in. North Carolina did not. There have been fluctuations from one poll to another in the Tar Heel state, but it, too, settled into the Clinton column.
- Arizona was not alone in jumping the partisan line over the last few months. The general election campaign witnessed Iowa cross the partisan line into the red and never really look back. Ohio, here at FHQ anyway, was more resistant. While the Buckeye state hopped the partisan line into Trump territory just yesterday, the second debate -- the town hall debate immediately after the Access Hollywood tape was released -- was the turning point in Ohio. The polls shifted toward Trump after that point and the average here shrunk smaller and smaller over time.
- One final change in comparing the first and last maps was the addition of the congressional districts in Maine and Nebraska. FHQ had not previously focused any on any of them, but added them since there was some data. We will confess that it was probably not enough data, but they were added nonetheless. Adding them did shift what had been a reliably electoral vote under the statewide distribution from Maine's second congressional district to Trump's total.
- The tipping point state has changed over time as well. Virginia was the initial spot where either Clinton or Trump would have crossed 270 electoral votes, but that changed a number of times and often included pairs of states as things split at 269-269 over the summer. That settled down later as the order of the states along the Lean/Toss Up line on the Clinton side of the Spectrum reshuffled. Colorado has been in that position since just before the first debate. And bear in mind, while the states have changed, the position of the tipping point state has not. The order has been that stable.
Incorrect Projections?
- FHQ has the least confidence in a few areas. First, Ohio is very close; the closest of all the states here at FHQ. It would not be a surprise if if jumped back over the partisan line into Clinton's column. At the same time, that is not what we are predicting.
- Second, the lack of data from Maine's second congressional district does not inspire confidence. The recent polling has favored Clinton by narrow margins, but a handful of Trump-favorable outliers from the late summer -- even when discounted in the weighted average -- still has that one tipped toward Trump here at FHQ.
- Tough-to-poll Nevada is always a bit of a problem child. It has been biased toward the Republican (compared to the final results) in each of the last two cycles. It would not be a shock if the Silver state is not a more comfortable win for Clinton. But again, that is not the prediction here.
| Final FHQ Margins -- 11/8/16 | ||
State
| Margin | Rating |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama |
+20.86
|
Strong Trump
|
| Alaska |
+5.59
|
Lean Trump
|
| Arizona |
+1.73
|
Toss Up Trump
|
| Arkansas |
+18.46
|
Strong Trump
|
| California |
+22.89
|
Strong Clinton
|
| Colorado |
+3.83
|
Toss Up Clinton
|
| Connecticut |
+12.45
|
Strong Clinton
|
| Delaware |
+13.19
|
Strong Clinton
|
| Florida |
+1.87
|
Toss Up Clinton
|
| Georgia |
+3.17
|
Toss Up Trump
|
| Hawaii |
+28.24
|
Strong Clinton
|
| Idaho |
+24.19
|
Strong Trump
|
| Illinois |
+15.07
|
Strong Clinton
|
| Indiana |
+9.71
|
Lean Trump
|
| Iowa |
+1.33
|
Toss Up Trump
|
| Kansas |
+12.50
|
Strong Trump
|
| Kentucky |
+19.70
|
Strong Trump
|
| Louisiana |
+12.71
|
Strong Trump
|
| Maine |
+6.74
|
Lean Clinton
|
| Maine CD1 |
+15.08
|
Strong Clinton
|
| Maine CD2 |
+3.05
|
Toss Up Trump
|
| Maryland |
+28.12
|
Strong Clinton
|
| Massachusetts |
+23.92
|
Strong Clinton
|
| Michigan |
+6.46
|
Lean Clinton
|
| Minnesota |
+7.39
|
Lean Clinton
|
| Mississippi |
+10.69
|
Strong Trump
|
| Missouri |
+8.02
|
Lean Trump
|
| Montana |
+14.16
|
Strong Trump
|
| Nebraska |
+19.42
|
Strong Trump
|
| Nevada |
+0.81
|
Toss Up Clinton
|
| New Hampshire |
+4.82
|
Toss Up Clinton
|
| New Jersey |
+11.79
|
Strong Clinton
|
| New Mexico |
+6.58
|
Lean Clinton
|
| New York |
+19.73
|
Strong Clinton
|
| North Carolina |
+1.36
|
Toss Up Clinton
|
| North Dakota |
+19.01
|
Strong Trump
|
| Ohio |
+0.14
|
Toss Up Trump
|
| Oklahoma |
+24.96
|
Strong Trump
|
| Oregon |
+9.01
|
Lean Clinton
|
| Pennsylvania |
+4.86
|
Toss Up Clinton
|
| Rhode Island |
+12.52
|
Strong Clinton
|
| South Carolina |
+7.50
|
Lean Trump
|
| South Dakota |
+12.03
|
Strong Trump
|
| Tennessee |
+14.50
|
Strong Trump
|
| Texas |
+7.52
|
Lean Trump
|
| Utah |
+9.97
|
Lean Trump
|
| Vermont |
+24.07
|
Strong Clinton
|
| Virginia |
+6.12
|
Lean Clinton
|
| Washington |
+12.77
|
Strong Clinton
|
| Washington, DC |
+65.00
|
Strong Clinton
|
| West Virginia |
+24.76
|
Strong Trump
|
| Wisconsin |
+6.36
|
Lean Clinton
|
| Wyoming |
+35.69
|
Strong Trump
|
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
HI-42
(7)
|
RI-4
(162)
|
NH-4
(263)
|
SC-9
(161)
|
TN-11
(61)
|
MD-10
(17)
|
NJ-14
(176)
|
CO-94
(272 | 275)
|
TX-38
(152)
|
AR-6
(50)
|
VT-3
(20)
|
OR-7
(183)
|
FL-29
(301 | 266) |
MO-10
(114)
|
ND-3
(44)
|
MA-11
(31)
|
MN-10
(193)
|
NC-15
(316 | 237) |
IN-11
(104)
|
NE-53
(41)
|
CA-55
(86)
|
ME-23
(195)
|
NV-6
(322 | 222)
|
UT-6
(93)
|
KY-8
(36)
|
NY-29
(115)
|
NM-5
(200)
|
OH-18
(216)
|
MS-6
(87)
|
AL-9
(28)
|
IL-20+13
(136)
|
MI-16
(216)
|
IA-6
(198)
|
SD-3
(81)
|
ID-4
(19)
|
DE-3
(139)
|
WI-10
(226)
|
AZ-11
(192)
|
KS-6
(78)
|
WV-5
(15)
|
WA-12
(151)
|
VA-13
(239)
|
GA-16+13
(181)
|
LA-8
(72)
|
OK-7
(10)
|
CT-7
(158)
|
PA-20
(259)
|
AK-3
(164)
|
MT-3
(64)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above. 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Alaska
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Indiana
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Mississippi
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Oregon
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Strong Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Utah
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (11/7/16)
The Electoral College Map (11/6/16)
The Electoral College Map (11/5/16)
Follow FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.
Monday, November 7, 2016
The Electoral College Map (11/7/16)
New State Polls (11/7/16)
| |||||||||
Morning Polls
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Colorado
|
11/1-11/2
|
+/-2.27%
|
1863 likely voters
|
42
|
41
|
6
|
+1
|
+3.91
| |
Florida
|
11/1-11/2
|
+/-2.02%
|
2352 likely voters
|
45
|
48
|
3
|
+3
|
--
| |
Florida
|
11/3-11/6
|
+/-3.3%
|
884 likely voters
|
46
|
45
|
5
|
+1
|
+1.98
| |
Georgia
|
11/6
|
+/-2.8%
|
1200 likely voters
|
46
|
49
|
2
|
+3
|
+3.04
| |
Missouri
|
11/4-11/5
|
+/-3.5%
|
750 likely voters
|
41
|
47
|
4
|
+6
|
+8.02
| |
Nevada
|
11/1-11/2
|
+/-2.31%
|
1793 likely voters
|
45
|
46
|
4
|
+1
|
--
| |
Nevada
|
11/4-11/5
|
+/-3.9%
|
600 likely voters
|
47
|
46
|
2
|
+1
|
+0.96
| |
New Hampshire
|
11/4-11/5
|
+/-3.0%
|
1000 likely voters
|
45
|
44
|
3
|
+1
|
--
| |
New Hampshire
|
11/3-11/6
|
+/-3.7%
|
707 likely voters
|
49
|
38
|
4
|
+11
|
+4.82
| |
New Mexico
|
11/6
|
+/-1.8%
|
8439 likely voters
|
46
|
44
|
1
|
+2
|
+6.44
| |
North Carolina
|
11/1-11/2
|
+/-1.92%
|
2596 likely voters
|
45
|
48
|
2
|
+3
|
--
| |
North Carolina
|
11/3-11/6
|
+/-3.3%
|
870 likely voters
|
47
|
45
|
4
|
+2
|
--
| |
North Carolina
|
11/4-11/6
|
+/-3.5%
|
800 likely voters
|
44
|
44
|
6
|
+/-0
|
+1.36
| |
Ohio
|
11/1-11/2
|
+/-1.94%
|
2557 likely voters
|
44
|
45
|
3
|
+1
|
--
| |
Ohio
|
10/31-11/3
|
--
|
1194 likely voters
|
40
|
43
|
2
|
+3
|
--
| |
Ohio
|
11/4-11/5
|
+/-3.2%
|
900 likely voters
|
39
|
46
|
6
|
+7
|
+0.01
| |
Pennsylvania
|
11/1-11/2
|
+/-1.89%
|
2683 likely voters
|
46
|
45
|
3
|
+1
|
+5.00
| |
Virginia
|
11/1-11/2
|
+/-1.77%
|
3076 likely voters
|
46
|
44
|
3
|
+2
|
--
| |
Virginia
|
11/4-11/6
|
+/-3.6%
|
1193 likely voters
|
48
|
42
|
5
|
+6
|
+6.20
| |
Wisconsin
|
11/1-11/2
|
+/-1.88%
|
2720 likely voters
|
49
|
41
|
4
|
+8
|
+6.49
| |
Afternoon Polls
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
Arizona
|
11/4-11/6
|
+/-4.12%
|
550 likely voters
|
44
|
47
|
1
|
+3
|
+1.71
| |
Florida
|
11/5-11/6
|
+/-3.4%
|
853 likely voters
|
48
|
46
|
1
|
+2
|
--
| |
Florida
|
11/6
|
+/-2.89%
|
1100 likely voters
|
46
|
50
|
1
|
+4
|
+1.89
| |
Georgia
|
11/3-11/5
|
+/-4.6%
|
995 likely voters
|
43
|
49
|
3
|
+6
|
+3.14
| |
Michigan
|
11/6
|
+/-2.77%
|
1200 likely voters
|
47
|
49
|
1
|
+2
|
+6.51
| |
Nevada
|
11/1-11/4
|
+/-3.02%
|
1100 likely voters
|
45
|
50
|
2
|
+5
|
+0.80
| |
Pennsylvania
|
11/3-11/5
|
+/-2.68%
|
1300 likely voters
|
47
|
48
|
2
|
+1
|
--
| |
Pennsylvania
|
11/3-11/5
|
+/-4.3%
|
931 likely voters
|
45
|
43
|
4
|
+2
|
+4.84
| |
Utah
|
11/3-11/5
|
+/-2.67%
|
1350 likely voters
|
30
|
40
|
2
|
+10
|
--
| |
Utah
|
11/3-11/5
|
+/-4.9%
|
762 likely voters
|
23
|
40
|
4
|
+17
|
+9.971
| |
Evening Polls
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
Florida
|
11/1-11/2
|
+/-2.8%
|
1220 registered voters
|
46
|
45
|
2
|
+1
|
+1.87
| |
Michigan
|
11/1-11/4
|
+/-3.0%
|
1079 registered voters
|
46
|
41
|
3
|
+5
|
+6.46
| |
Nevada
|
11/3-11/6
|
+/-2.9%
|
1158 likely voters
|
45
|
43
|
5
|
+2
|
+0.83
| |
New Mexico
|
11/1-11/2
|
+/-2.7%
|
1327 registered voters
|
45
|
37
|
2
|
+8
|
+6.58
| |
North Carolina
|
11/1-11/4
|
+/-2.8%
|
1250 registered voters
|
46
|
45
|
3
|
+1
|
+1.36
| |
Virginia
|
11/1-11/4
|
+/-2.7%
|
1362 registered voters
|
47
|
42
|
3
|
+5
|
--
| |
Virginia
|
11/2-11/6
|
+/-4.4%
|
802 likely voters
|
45
|
41
|
14
|
+4
|
+6.12
| |
1Excluding the two head-to-head online panel surveys in Utah lowers Trump's average advantage there to 8.48 points. Those polls are outliers in view of the majority of surveys in the Beehive state during 2016 and serve as an anchor on the data. The change would shift Utah within the Lean Trump category, closer to Toss Up Trump. McMullin garnered 24% in the YouGov survey and 25% support in the Trafalgar survey. He currently has an FHQ graduated weighted average share of support of 23.39%, trailing both Trump and Clinton.
| |||||||||
--
Changes (11/7/16) -- Early edition
One last day.
| Changes (November 7 -- Morning) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio | Toss Up Clinton | Toss Up Trump | |
- Ohio jumped the partisan line from Toss Up Clinton to Toss Up Trump, but note the average: +0.01. The Buckeye state is close here at FHQ.
- Nevada rejoins the Watch List, slipping under the Clinton +1 threshold, but the Silver state has been hovering there.
- Colorado slides off the Watch List. It is now just a bit more than a point from the Lean/Toss Up line (+5) on the Clinton side of the partisan line.
- The ZiaPoll survey of New Mexico -- given the sample size, it was the whole state -- drew the average in a bit further. It has tracked down to about a six and a half point lead for Clinton in the Land of Enchantment. That pushed New Mexico down to the lower half of the Lean Clinton group of states on the Electoral College Spectrum.
| Changes (November 7 -- Afternoon) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | Lean Clinton | Toss Up Clinton | |
- The Trafalgar and YouGov surveys were enough of a drag on the FHQ average in Pennsylvania that the Keystone state slipped just under the Lean/Toss Up line. Pennsylvania, then, follows New Hampshire as states that have until recently been just above that line but have hopped over it into the Toss Up Clinton area. Both remain clustered around that line, however; just on the opposite side.
- That move also flips Pennsylvania on the Watch List, but keeps it in the same position on the Spectrum.
- The Trafalgar survey of Michigan is the first to show Trump ahead since 2015. It may be a sign of something in the Great Lakes state or it could be an outlier (balancing out that MSU survey from last week). Either way, it decreased the average margin enough to ease Michigan past Maine on the Spectrum.
- Also, Utah once again traded spots with Indiana, pushing to the very end of the Lean Trump area. The new polls out of the Beehive state nudge Trump even closer to 40 percent in the averages. Again, that will be enough to keep Clinton and McMullin at bay there and Utah in the Republican column.
- The Breibart wave of last minute Gravis polling releases mostly confirmed the state of the race in each of the states. There was some shuffling among the New Mexico, Michigan, Wisconsin cluster in the Lean Clinton area. New Mexico bounced back slightly after pushing down that column earlier in the day. Everything else held steady.
Barring anything unforeseen or any straggler surveys, this is likely what the final map will look like on election day. There are a few polls yet to be added into the dataset (the non-Breitbart wave of Gravis polls), but the expectation is that that will not alter the bottom line any if at all. It will not where it counts in any event: Clinton 322, Trump 216.
--
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
MD-102
(13)
|
RI-4
(162)
|
NH-4
(263)
|
TX-38
(161)
|
TN-11
(61)
|
HI-4
(17)
|
NJ-14
(176)
|
CO-94
(272 | 275)
|
SC-9
(123)
|
AR-6
(50)
|
VT-3
(20)
|
OR-7
(183)
|
FL-29
(301 | 266) |
MO-10
(114)
|
ND-3
(44)
|
MA-11
(31)
|
MN-10
(193)
|
NC-15
(316 | 237) |
IN-11
(104)
|
NE-53
(41)
|
CA-55
(86)
|
ME-23
(195)
|
NV-6
(322 | 222)
|
UT-6
(93)
|
KY-8
(36)
|
NY-29
(115)
|
NM-5
(200)
|
OH-18
(216)
|
MS-6
(87)
|
AL-9
(28)
|
IL-20+13
(136)
|
WI-10
(210)
|
IA-6
(198)
|
SD-3
(81)
|
ID-4
(19)
|
DE-3
(139)
|
MI-16
(226)
|
AZ-11
(192)
|
KS-6
(78)
|
WV-5
(15)
|
WA-12
(151)
|
VA-13
(239)
|
GA-16+13
(181)
|
LA-8
(72)
|
OK-7
(10)
|
CT-7
(158)
|
PA-20
(259)
|
AK-3
(164)
|
MT-3
(64)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above. 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Alaska
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Indiana
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Mississippi
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Oregon
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Strong Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Utah
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (11/6/16)
The Electoral College Map (11/5/16)
The Electoral College Map (11/4/16)
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