| Changes (July 18) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska |
Lean Trump
|
Toss Up Trump
| |
Friday closed with a late polling drop out of the Last Frontier. And it grabs attention as much or more than the early July survey of Alaska from Public Policy Polling.
Why?
It is the second consecutive survey to show a low single digit lead for the president in a perennial red state. And it brought about a change in the averages in Alaska in the process. But here is the thing...
Polling Quick Hits:
Alaska:
While the Alaska Survey Research poll is the second survey in a row to show a marginal lead for Trump in the state, those two polls are the only ones in the Last Frontier in 2020. Those are the data that are out there, but this is a case where some context is needed because Alaska is a state Trump carried by 14 points in 2016. If there was a shift there in line with the average shift -- 7.89 points in the Democrats' direction in four years -- then Trump's advantage would be around six points and not the 2.13 point edge in the FHQ graduated weight averages based on these two polls.
Moreover, just looking at the gains Biden has made in 2020 polling from where Clinton was on election day in 2016, there are only two states -- North Dakota and Utah -- where there is a greater increase for the Democrats than the change in Alaska. That is not to suggest that it is necessarily an outlier, but it is on the far end of the range of Democratic gains over 2016. For now, however, Alaska pushes into the Trump toss up category. But note those caveats above. More polling is warranted there.
NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
MA-112
(14)
|
CT-7
(173)
|
PA-203
NE CD2-1
(269 | 289) |
AK-3
(125)
|
TN-11
(56)
|
HI-4
(18)
|
OR-7
(180)
|
NH-43
(273 | 269)
|
MO-10
(122)
|
NE-2
(45)
|
CA-55
(73)
|
DE-3
(183)
|
FL-29
(302 | 265)
|
MT-3
(112)
|
AL-9
(43)
|
VT-3
(76)
|
CO-9
(192)
|
NV-6
(308 | 236)
|
SC-9
(109)
|
ID-4
(34)
|
NY-29
(105)
|
NM-5
(197)
|
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
|
UT-6
(100)
|
KY-8
(30)
|
MD-10
(115)
|
MN-10
(207)
|
NC-15
(334 | 219)
|
MS-6
(94)
|
ND-3
(22)
|
IL-20
(135)
|
ME-2
(209)
|
OH-18
(352 | 204)
|
AR-6
(88)
|
SD-3
(19)
|
WA-12
(147)
|
VA-13
(222)
|
GA-16
(186)
|
LA-8
NE CD1-1
(82)
|
OK-7
(16)
|
RI-4
ME CD1-1
(152)
|
MI-16
(238)
|
TX-38
(170)
|
IN-11
(73)
|
WV-5
(9)
|
NJ-14
(166)
|
WI-10
(248)
|
ME CD2-1
IA-6
(132)
|
KS-6
(62)
|
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states up to the Keystone state), he would have 289 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 New Hampshire is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state for the former vice president. But because the line between New Hampshire and Pennsylvania creates an Electoral College tie (269-269), Pennsylvania is the tipping point state for Trump. It is where the president surpasses 270 electoral votes. Collectively, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are the tipping point states. | ||||
Although the FHQ average for Alaska dropped the state into a group among the Trump toss ups, the state did not shift all that significantly in the order. Alaska was already on the Biden end of the Lean Trump states and merely swapped spots with Missouri in the order. The margin may feel a little close, but the order of states on the Electoral College Spectrum above did change all that much.
As for the Watch List below -- the group of states within a fraction of a point of changing categories -- the group remains unchanged from a day ago. Alaska did change categories, but with only two polls in the dataset for the state, it jumped from among the Lean states off the list to the Toss Ups and still not on the list. Time (and additional polling) will tell the tale on whether Alaska stays there. But as has been the case with a number of others states discussed in this space, if one is talking about Alaska as one of the closer states on election day, then Biden has already wrapped up the requisite 270 electoral votes with probably a hefty extra cache beyond it.
--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Potential Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Arkansas
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Florida
|
from Toss Up Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
Georgia
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
Louisiana
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Maine
|
from Strong Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
Mississippi
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Missouri
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Montana
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Nebraska CD1
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Nebraska CD2
|
from Lean Biden
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Toss Up Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Biden
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Biden
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
South Carolina
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Utah
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Virginia
|
from Strong Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
Wisconsin
|
from Lean Biden
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.
--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (7/17/20)
The Electoral College Map (7/16/20)
The Electoral College Map (7/15/20)
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