| Changes (July 25) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | Lean Biden | Toss Up Biden | |
...but only just barely.
Polling Quick Hits:
Pennsylvania (Biden 48, Trump 45):
The latest Gravis poll out of Pennsylvania may have Biden running just a fraction behind his FHQ average in the state, but it has President Trump running a couple of points ahead of his. And that produces a margin that once again shifts the state back into the group of Biden toss ups. But again, as has been mentioned in past updates over the last several days, that a state like Pennsylvania is jumping over into a new category only to snap back the next day only underscores just how huddled it is around that Lean/Toss Up line on the Biden side of the ledger. The shading on the map is less significant than the fact that the Keystone state is tipped nearly five points in Biden's direction. That remains a lot of work for the president to make up in the 101 days until November 3.
NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
MA-112
(14)
|
CT-7
(173)
|
FL-293
(278 | 289)
|
AK-3
(125)
|
TN-11
(56)
|
HI-4
(18)
|
OR-7
(180)
|
PA-20
(298 | 260)
|
MO-10
(122)
|
NE-2
(45)
|
CA-55
(73)
|
DE-3
(183)
|
NH-4
(302 | 240)
|
SC-9
(112)
|
AL-9
(43)
|
VT-3
(76)
|
CO-9
(192)
|
NV-6
(308 | 236)
|
MT-3
(103)
|
ID-4
(34)
|
NY-29
(105)
|
NM-5
(197)
|
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
|
UT-6
(100)
|
ND-3
(30)
|
MD-10
(115)
|
MN-10
(207)
|
NC-15
(334 | 219)
|
MS-6
(94)
|
KY-8
(27)
|
IL-20
(135)
|
ME-2
(209)
|
OH-18
(352 | 204)
|
LA-8
NE CD1-1
(88)
|
SD-3
(19)
|
WA-12
(147)
|
VA-13
(222)
|
GA-16
(186)
|
IN-11
(79)
|
OK-7
(16)
|
RI-4
ME CD1-1
(152)
|
MI-16
(238)
|
TX-38
(170)
|
AR-6
(68)
|
WV-5
(9)
|
NJ-14
(166)
|
WI-10
NE CD2-1
(249)
|
IA-6
ME CD2-1
(132)
|
KS-6
(62)
|
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Florida (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania and Florida), he would have 278 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Florida is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. | ||||
Yes, Pennsylvania is back to being a toss up, but its position on the Electoral College Spectrum above -- just to the Trump side of tipping point Florida -- stays the same as it was at the close of the work week. Nothing else changed on the Spectrum.
The same is true for the Watch List. Friday's 14 states within a point of changing categories all septs their spots. Only Pennsylvania changed the direction of its possible switch.
And finally, another day passes without a new poll from either Nevada or New Hampshire. Only one of the two is on the Watch List, but both are probably miscast as toss ups given the movement of other states that finished around them in 2016. There really needs to be some updated information from both states.
Days since the last Nevada poll was in the field: 86.
Days since the last New Hampshire poll was in the field: 39.
--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Potential Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
from Lean Biden
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
Georgia
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
Louisiana
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Maine
|
from Strong Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
Mississippi
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Missouri
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Montana
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Nebraska CD1
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Nebraska CD2
|
from Lean Biden
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Toss Up Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Toss Up Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
Utah
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Virginia
|
from Strong Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
Wisconsin
|
from Lean Biden
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.
--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (7/24/20)
The Electoral College Map (7/23/20)
The Electoral College Map (7/22/20)
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