The work week ends on a quiet note with a couple of poll releases from two deeply blue states. In both cases President Trump is running behind where he was in California and Massachusetts in November 2016 while Biden comes in around where Hillary Clinton was in each, around 60 percent. In other words, both remain deeply blue states.
Polling Quick Hits:
California
(Biden 61, Trump 25):
In a survey that was in the field before the announcement that the junior senator from the Golden state was joining the Democratic ticket, Redfield and Wilton Strategies found Biden up big in the state. The former vice president has been north of 61 percent in a few other polls, but this marks a low point for Trump in 2020 California polling. Again, that does not necessarily amount to much in a state so tilted in the Democrat's favor, but it is indicative of the decay in Trump support over the last four years.
Massachusetts
(Biden 61, Trump 28):
Over in the Bay state, the second survey release of the week -- this one from YouGov -- there again has Biden out to a 30+ point lead. And even in Massachusetts, the swing from 2016 to now is on par with the average swing across all states. But looking below to the Electoral College Spectrum, that has not exactly changed the position of Massachusetts in the rank ordering. It remains the state furthest out of the president's reach. And it is out further now than it was during the last cycle (as measured by the margin).
NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
MA-112
(14)
|
NJ-14
(173)
|
WI-10
(252)
|
AK-3
(125)
|
UT-6
(60)
|
HI-4
(18)
|
OR-7
(180)
|
PA-203
NE CD2-1
(273 | 286) |
MO-10
(122)
|
IN-11
(54)
|
CA-55
(73)
|
DE-3
(183)
|
FL-29
(302 | 265)
|
SC-9
(112)
|
ID-4
(43)
|
VT-3
(76)
|
CO-9
(192)
|
NV-6
(308 | 236)
|
KS-6
(103)
|
KY-8
(39)
|
NY-29
(105)
|
NM-5
(197)
|
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
|
MT-3
NE CD1-1
(97)
|
AL-9
(31)
|
WA-12
(117)
|
ME-2
(199)
|
NC-15
(334 | 219)
|
LA-8
(93)
|
ND-3
(22)
|
MD-10
(127)
|
VA-13
(212)
|
ME CD2-1
OH-18
(353 | 204)
|
MS-6
(87)
|
SD-3
(19)
|
IL-20
(147)
|
MN-10
(222)
|
GA-16
(185)
|
AR-6
(79)
|
OK-7
(16)
|
ME CD1-1
RI-4
(152)
|
MI-16
(238)
|
IA-6
(169)
|
NE-2
(73)
|
WV-5
(9)
|
CT-7
(159)
|
NH-4
(242)
|
TX-38
(163)
|
TN-11
(71)
|
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 286 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. | ||||
Needless to say, these two polls were status quo maintaining surveys. Neither did anything to alter their respective positions on the Spectrum. And neither changed the Watch List below. [Neither is close to being on it.] That means that Pennsylvania stays the tipping point state and the 13 states and districts that were on the List are unchanged from Thursday. Those 13 and Nevada remain the states to watch if one is looking for changes at FHQ.
--
There were no new polls from Nevada today.
Days since the last Nevada poll was in the field: 106.
--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Potential Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
from Toss Up Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
Georgia
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
Iowa
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
Louisiana
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Maine
|
from Strong Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
Maine CD2
|
from Toss Up Biden
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Mississippi
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Missouri
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Nebraska CD2
|
from Lean Biden
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Biden
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Biden
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
South Carolina
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Virginia
|
from Strong Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.
--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (8/13/20)
The Electoral College Map (8/12/20)
The Electoral College Map (8/11/20)
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