As the political world prepares for day two at the virtual Democratic National Convention, there remain just eleven weeks between now and election day on November 3. And as is typically the case during convention weeks, the polling output slows to a trickle. That has certainly been evident over the last several days and Tuesday was no exception. The result is little change in the FHQ averages. But little does not mean no changes.
Polling Quick Hits:
Michigan
(Biden 52, Trump 43):
In the most frequently surveyed state of the cycle to date, Michigan got an outdated update from two weeks ago from GQR Research. Outdated or not, the survey found Biden up nine points on the president, a margin on par with the near double digit margins in a handful of in the field around the tail end of July. Those were also polls that tended to have the former vice president north of 50 percent. And this one was no exception. Meanwhile, Trump has not eclipsed 43 percent in a survey of the Wolverine state for over a month now. Often, presidential campaigns want steady numbers, but typically not when they are steady for an incumbent president behind in the polls.
Wisconsin
(Biden 49, Trump 43):
Next door in the Badger state, Biden's lead has also stabilized in August. The race in Wisconsin has settled into a 4-6 point Biden advantage with just one (high side) outlier among the six polls in the field there this month. The latest Morning Consult poll of Wisconsin fit that bill as well. There, too, Trump has found it hard to crack 43 percent (other than in the Marquette poll last week) in August. That is not a recipe for defending in 2020 a state the president meaningfully flipped by a narrow margin in 2016.
NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
MA-112
(14)
|
NJ-14
(173)
|
WI-10
(252)
|
AK-3
(125)
|
UT-6
(60)
|
HI-4
(18)
|
OR-7
(180)
|
PA-203
NE CD2-1
(273 | 286) |
MO-10
(122)
|
IN-11
(54)
|
CA-55
(73)
|
DE-3
(183)
|
FL-29
(302 | 265)
|
SC-9
(112)
|
ID-4
(43)
|
VT-3
(76)
|
CO-9
(192)
|
NV-6
(308 | 236)
|
KS-6
(103)
|
KY-8
(39)
|
NY-29
(105)
|
NM-5
(197)
|
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
|
MT-3
NE CD1-1
(97)
|
AL-9
(31)
|
WA-12
(117)
|
ME-2
(199)
|
NC-15
(334 | 219)
|
LA-8
(93)
|
ND-3
(22)
|
MD-10
(127)
|
VA-13
(212)
|
ME CD2-1
OH-18
(353 | 204)
|
MS-6
(87)
|
SD-3
(19)
|
IL-20
(147)
|
MN-10
(222)
|
IA-6
(185)
|
AR-6
(79)
|
OK-7
(16)
|
ME CD1-1
RI-4
(152)
|
MI-16
(238)
|
GA-16
(179)
|
NE-2
(73)
|
WV-5
(9)
|
CT-7
(159)
|
NH-4
(242)
|
TX-38
(163)
|
TN-11
(71)
|
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 286 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. | ||||
There no changes to either the Electoral College Spectrum nor the Watch List upon the introduction of these two state-level surveys. The rank ordering of state remains the same as it was a day ago, and the 13 states and jurisdictions list below in addition to underpolled Nevada remain the states to watch for new polling releases.
--
There were no new polls from Nevada today.
Days since the last Nevada poll was in the field: 110.
--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Potential Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
from Toss Up Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
Georgia
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
Iowa
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
Louisiana
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Maine
|
from Strong Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
Maine CD2
|
from Toss Up Biden
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Mississippi
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Missouri
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Nebraska CD2
|
from Lean Biden
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Biden
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Biden
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
South Carolina
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Virginia
|
from Strong Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.
--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (8/17/20)
The Electoral College Map (8/15/20)
The Electoral College Map (8/14/20)
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