After an active week on the polling front, it was nice to have a bit of a break as the race entered the weekend just more than five weeks ahead of election day. Saturday brought just one new survey, and it was one that maintained the status quo. That, in and of itself, continues to be the story on the cusp of debate season.
Polling Quick Hits:
Minnesota
(Biden 48, Trump 42)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +8.03]
Another day and another poll out of the North Star state. And it is another survey that indicates this flip opportunity targeted by the Trump campaign continues to be just out of reach. Mason-Dixon was last in the field in Minnesota in May and had Biden up five. Although the former vice president's share of support has ticked down a notch in the time since, the president's has fallen further. Both are a bit unusual given that the two polls represented a transition from a registered voter sample to one with a likely voter screen. Still, the changes were such that they were more statistical noise than anything. Minnesota polling has settled into an place where Biden is consistently up by the mid- to upper single digits.
NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
DC-3
MA-11
(14)2
|
CT-7
(162)
|
WI-10
(253)
|
AK-3
(125)
|
AL-9
(60)
|
HI-4
(18)
|
NJ-14
(176)
|
NV-6
(259)
|
SC-9
(122)
|
IN-11
(51)
|
CA-55
(73)
|
OR-7
(183)
|
PA-203
(279 | 279)
|
MO-10
(113)
|
UT-6
(40)
|
VT-3
(76)
|
NM-5
(188)
|
FL-29
(308 | 259)
|
KS-6
(103)
|
KY-8
(34)
|
MD-10
(86)
|
ME-2
(190)
|
AZ-11
ME CD2-1
(320 | 230)
|
MT-3
NE CD1-1
(97)
|
ID-4
(26)
|
NY-29
(115)
|
CO-9
(199)
|
NC-15
(335 | 218)
|
LA-8
(93)
|
ND-3
(22)
|
WA-12
(127)
|
VA-13
(212)
|
OH-18
(353 | 203)
|
MS-6
(85)
|
SD-3
(19)
|
IL-20
ME CD1-1
(148)
|
MN-10
(222)
|
IA-6
(185)
|
AR-6
(79)
|
OK-7
(16)
|
RI-4
(152)
|
MI-16
(238)
|
GA-16
(179)
|
NE-2
(73)
|
WV-5
(9)
|
DE-3
(155)
|
NE CD2-1
NH-4
(243)
|
TX-38
(163)
|
TN-11
(71)
|
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 279 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is. | ||||
With just one new poll added to the mix -- and one that was in line with other polling in the state -- there was not much room for fundamental changes here at FHQ. Yes, the Biden +6 in Minnesota drew the margin in a bit there, but not enough to bring it anywhere close shifting into toss up status. The Land of 10,000 Lakes remains just inside the Lean Biden category on the upper end next to the Strong/Lean line. Needless to say, the map stayed the same today as did both the Electoral College Spectrum and the Watch List. The same ten states that were within a fraction of a point of changing categories stayed there on the day with only Georgia, Iowa and Ohio in range of altering the overarching projected electoral vote tally.
Where things stood at FHQ on September 26 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008
--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Potential Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Arkansas
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Georgia
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
Iowa
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
Louisiana
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Mississippi
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Lean Biden
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Biden
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Biden
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
South Carolina
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Virginia
|
from Strong Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.
--
Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/25/20)
The Electoral College Map (9/24/20)
The Electoral College Map (9/23/20)
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