Update for October 10.
For the first time what seems like quite a while, the weekend kicked off with a slow poll release day on Saturday. There was just one leftover survey that did not make it out in time to be included in yesterday's update and another single poll on Saturday. And both were gauging the state of the race in the Peach state.
Polling Quick Hits:
Georgia
(Trump 49, Biden 47 via Landmark Communications | Biden 47, Trump 46 via Public Policy Polling)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.16]
The Georgia surveys added to the FHQ state-level polling dataset were both from firms that have been in the field a number of times in the state this year, leaving a relatively solid basis for comparison. Landmark conducted a Georgia poll just last week and Biden's two point advantage then is a two point lead for Trump now. The former vice president was steady at 47 percent while Trump gained four points in that week between polls. But other than a late August, post-convention survey which had the president ahead by seven points, the series from Landmark has had the race within two points one way or the other.
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.16]
The Georgia surveys added to the FHQ state-level polling dataset were both from firms that have been in the field a number of times in the state this year, leaving a relatively solid basis for comparison. Landmark conducted a Georgia poll just last week and Biden's two point advantage then is a two point lead for Trump now. The former vice president was steady at 47 percent while Trump gained four points in that week between polls. But other than a late August, post-convention survey which had the president ahead by seven points, the series from Landmark has had the race within two points one way or the other.
The same could be said of the Georgia series from Public Policy Polling, but in the opposite direction. Of the five polls the Raleigh-based pollster has conducted in the Peach state, four of them have had the race for the 16 electoral votes on the line in Georgia within a couple of points. The one exception was a late June poll -- during Biden's surge across the country -- that had the Democratic nominee up by four. But since the last time the firm surveyed Georgia in August, nothing has changed. Biden continues to hold a 47-46 edge.
And while the PPP surveys average out around Biden +2, the Landmark series finds it to be around Trump +2. Split the difference and call it a tie (which is pretty much where things are in Georgia at the moment).
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
DC-3
VT-3
(6)2
|
IL-20
(162)
|
WI-10
(253)
|
SC-9
(125)
|
TN-11
(60)
|
MA-11
(17)
| OR-7
(169)
|
PA-203
(273 | 285)
| MO-10
(116)
|
KY-8
(49)
|
MD-10
(27)
| NJ-14
(183)
|
NV-6
(279 | 265)
| AK-3
(116)
|
AL-9
(41)
|
CA-55
(82)
|
ME-2
(185)
|
FL-29
(308 | 259)
|
KS-6
(103)
|
SD-3
(32)
|
NY-29
(111)
|
CO-9
(194)
|
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
|
NE CD1-1
MT-3
(97) |
ID-4
(29)
|
HI-4
(115)
|
VA-13
(207)
|
NC-15
ME CD2-1
(335 | 219)
|
NE-2
(93)
|
AR-6
(25)
|
DE-3
(118)
|
NH-4
(211)
|
GA-16
(203)
|
IN-11
(91)
|
OK-7
(19)
|
WA-12
(130)
|
NM-5
(216)
|
OH-18
(187)
|
UT-6
(80)
|
ND-3
(12)
|
ME CD1-1
CT-7
(138)
|
MN-10
(226)
|
IA-6
(169)
|
MS-6
(74)
|
WV-5
(9)
|
RI-4
(142)
| NE CD2-1
MI-16
(243)
|
TX-38
(163)
|
LA-8
(68)
|
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is. | ||||
Needless to say, with just two polls from the same state, there was not much opportunity for any significant shake up to how things have been aligned around here in recent days. Georgia remained the most competitive state on the Trump side of the partisan line, but has been consistently tipped -- and barely so -- in Trump's direction. It continues to be, along with Ohio, among the small group of states that is within range of hopping the partisan line and altering the projected electoral vote tally.
And with 24 days to go until November 3 concludes the voting in the 2020 presidential election, Georgia and Ohio -- states Trump with ease four years ago -- are indicative of the swing toward the Democrats since 2016 and the current predicament in which the president finds him ensnared.
Where things stood at FHQ on October 10 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008
--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.
--
Related posts:
Where things stood at FHQ on October 10 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008
--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Potential Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Georgia
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Strong Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
New Mexico
|
from Strong Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Biden
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.
--
Related posts:
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