Update for October 18.
On to the polls...
Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona
(Biden 50, Trump 47)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.03]
The margin in the YouGov survey of the Grand Canyon state was consistent with where the FHQ averages currently have the race for the 11 electoral votes at stake in Arizona. But that was the case in the September YouGov poll there. It, too, was Biden +3. But what is different in October is that while the margin is the same, both candidates shares of support were higher with leaners included. Furthermore, Biden surpassed the 50 percent barrier, something that has been more common in the blue wall states that Trump flipped in 2016. And that is not to say that Biden has not been over the majority mark in Arizona, but those instances are more sporadic there than in the Rust Belt. That change is significant as election day approaches.
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.03]
The margin in the YouGov survey of the Grand Canyon state was consistent with where the FHQ averages currently have the race for the 11 electoral votes at stake in Arizona. But that was the case in the September YouGov poll there. It, too, was Biden +3. But what is different in October is that while the margin is the same, both candidates shares of support were higher with leaners included. Furthermore, Biden surpassed the 50 percent barrier, something that has been more common in the blue wall states that Trump flipped in 2016. And that is not to say that Biden has not been over the majority mark in Arizona, but those instances are more sporadic there than in the Rust Belt. That change is significant as election day approaches.
Wisconsin
(Biden 51, Trump 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.28]
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.28]
The addition of the leaners in the Wisconsin survey from YouGov had less of an impact there than in Arizona. In fact, in the Badger state, there was little movement at all from the firm's last poll there in September. Then, it was Biden 50-46. So, Biden tacked on another point and Trump remained stationary on the cusp of the upper 40s. And although there is some consistency there, poll over poll, YouGov has both candidates out in front of their FHQ average shares of support. That currently stands at Biden 50-43 (rounded). The former vice president, then, is mainly in line with his average in this survey, but Trump is at the top of his range here compared to recent polling, and basically stuck where he ended up in 2016 in the Badger state.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
DC-3
VT-3
(6)2
|
IL-20
(162)
|
WI-10
(253)
| MO-10
(125)
|
TN-11
(60)
|
MA-11
(17)
| OR-7
(169)
|
PA-203
(273 | 285)
| AK-3
(115)
|
KY-8
(49)
|
MD-10
(27)
| NJ-14
(183)
|
NV-6
(279 | 265)
| SC -9
(112)
|
AL-9
(41)
|
HI-4
(31)
|
ME-2
(185)
|
FL-29
(308 | 259)
|
KS-6
(103)
|
SD-3
(32)
|
CA-55
(86)
|
CO-9
(194)
|
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
|
NE CD1-1
MT-3
(97) |
ID-4
(29)
|
NYI-29
(115)
|
VA-13
(207)
|
NC-15
ME CD2-1
(335 | 219)
|
NE-2
(93)
|
AR-6
(25)
|
DE-3
(118)
|
NH-4
(211)
|
GA-16
(351 | 203)
|
IN-11
(91)
|
OK-7
(19)
|
WA-12
(130)
|
NM-5
(216)
|
OH-18
(187)
|
UT-6
(80)
|
ND-3
(12)
|
ME CD1-1
CT-7
(138)
|
MN-10
(226)
|
IA-6
(169)
|
MS-6
(74)
|
WV-5
(9)
|
RI-4
(142)
| NE CD2-1
MI-16
(243)
|
TX-38
(163)
|
LA-8
(68)
|
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is. | ||||
This update is steady as she goes. The map, Spectrum and Watch List all are exactly the same today as they were yesterday after the addition of these polls. That is another day gone that the trajectory of the race failed to change (in either direction).
16 days to go.
Where things stood at FHQ on October 18 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008
--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Potential Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Georgia
|
from Toss Up Biden
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Strong Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
New Mexico
|
from Strong Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Biden
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.
--
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