Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...
There are a number of 2024 storylines nestled in just one bill introduced in the Iowa House this week. The measure introduced by Rep. Bobby Kaufmann (R-82nd, Cedar), House Study Bill 245, would end same-day registration before the caucuses, require registration 70 days before the nation's kick-off Republican presidential nomination event and mandate in-person participation. That is a small list of changes but together, they offer some big challenges.
FHQ hesitates to say the most important one, but the most important one with respect to the calendar anyway, is the likely impetus behind the change in registration requirements for caucus participation. The proposed 70 day buffer between registration and caucus day is aimed at preventing caucus-goers from participating in more than one party's caucus. Under the current law, an Iowan can walk into their caucus site, register with that party and participate in the caucus. With the caucuses starting at the same time and both parties holding caucuses on the same night, that means that it is impossible for someone to walk into one site participate as, say, a Democrat and then make their way over to a local Republican caucus site, register and participate there as well.
But what if those Democratic and Republican caucuses in the Hawkeye state were not on the same evening? What if, and bear with me here, one national party stripped Iowa of its first-in-the-nation status while the other did not?
Well, it would open the door to the possibility that the two parties' events would occur at different points on the calendar. And that would subsequently make it more likely that an Iowan could, with the help of same-day registration, participate in both parties' caucuses. Now, there may be a reason for someone like Rep. Kaufmann, the son of the Republican Party of Iowa chair and adviser to the 2024 Trump campaign to put forth such legislation, but FHQ will leave that to others to discuss.
However, the takeaway from this move is that there is a tacit acknowledgment that the Iowa Democratic and Republican caucuses may be on different dates in 2024. In their account, The Gazette in Iowa was maybe a bit forward in describing it thusly...
"That provision is designed to prevent Iowans from participating in both the Democrats’ and Republicans’ caucuses, now that starting in 2024 the two events will no longer be held on the same night."
Obviously, that reality is not yet set in stone. Iowa Democrats may still defy the new DNC calendar rules for 2024 and hold caucuses alongside Republicans (likely in January) next year. But they may not. And this bill would lay the groundwork for there to be no mischief, no Operation Chaos, in Iowa in 2024. And that mischief making could go both ways. After all, rank and file Iowa Republicans, having already completed their precinct caucuses, could venture over to hypothetically later Democratic caucuses and make things look bad for President Biden.
But that is small consolation to an Iowa Democratic Party that appears not to have been consulted on these potential changes to the caucuses and puts the party in a short- to medium-term bind. The state party already has no public draft delegate selection plan available (ahead of a May 3 deadline to submit them to the national party), but it now may also have to scrap the one big innovation they pitched to the national party last year: an all-mail caucus process.
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In the travel primary, Tim Scott is on his way back to Iowa today, and oh yeah, it appears as if the South Carolina senator will launch an exploratory committee for a presidential run as well. Scott becomes the fourth candidate to have held elective (federal or statewide) office and the second from the Palmetto state to join the fray.
Speaking of Iowa, Texas Governor Greg Abbott (R) turned down an invitation from the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition to speak at their event in the Hawkeye state next weekend. Tim Scott will be there. Asa Hutchinson will be there. Abbott will not. Read into that what one may about the invisible primary.
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It was not that long ago that the notion of Trump's slipping support among evangelicals was raised around here. But FHQ wondered aloud then whether a similar dynamic would pop up in 2024 as did in 2016. Namely, that there may be an elite/mass public divide among evangelicals or a regular attendee/seldom attends church split among those who consider themselves evangelical. That may or may not be the case, but the AP provides a bit more nuance to the story by checking in with evangelicals in Iowa. And there are pastors there who still support Trump. This will continue to be a segment of the Republican primary electorate to track both in Iowa and nationally as the invisible primary continues.
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Over at FHQ Plus...
- A thorough update on the primary calendar chock full of little goodies foreshadowing maneuvering to come in a number of states.
If you haven't checked out FHQ Plus yet, then what are you waiting for? Subscribe below for free and consider a paid subscription to support FHQ's work.
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On this date...
...in 1980, Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy won the Arizona Democratic caucuses, just his fourth win to that point in the calendar. The wins would pick up down the stretch, but Kennedy conceded the nomination at the national convention in New York that summer.
...in 2007, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) joined the race for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination.
...in 2015, former New York Senator and First Lady Hillary Clinton formally entered the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination race.
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