Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...
Alexei McCammond at Axios reports that the Haley campaign is circulating a memo to donors that, among other things, is reminding them of the baggage Donald Trump brings to the table. "Still, it’s increasingly clear that Trump’s candidacy is more consumed by the grievances of the past and the promise of more drama in the future, rather than a forward-looking vision for the American people," campaign manager, Betsy Ankney wrote.
This is what campaigns do. They spin. They have to spin an angle that theoretically works to their advantage. One cannot fault Team Haley for that.
However, if one's campaign is in the position of reminding donors and supporters of something that is ubiquitous -- and something the opposition candidate in question is using in the short term to his advantage -- then that says something about the where said campaign is. And that is not a mystery. Haley has been hovering in the low single digits in the polls even after her campaign announcement in February.
But importantly, this is a point of differentiation that the Haley campaign is attempting to make. It is not as forceful as, say, Asa Hutchinson was in the wake of the Manhattan indictment against Trump, but it is a push toward finding a nuanced middle ground that, on the one hand, grants Trump the space to run despite the indictment, yet on the other, reminds supporters and donors of the baggage the former president totes around with him like an anvil. It has been a bit of a tightrope walk so far for most candidates, would-be or in the race.
This will not be the last one hears about these Trump negatives or the instant lame-duck status he would be saddled with should be become the 47th president.
[In the travel primary, Haley is in Denison, Iowa today.]
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Opposite ends of the invisible primary. On one end, Biden: "I plan on running." On the other, Youngkin: "I'm not in Iowa." As invisible primary signals go, those are both fairly clear.
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The endorsement primary continues to lean heavily in Trump's direction. And as a former president and current frontrunner vying for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, that is to be expected. Trump picked up a pledge of support for another member of the Florida delegation to the US House, Rep. Cory Mills (R-FL), upping his congressional total to 39 (45 including members of the Senate). No one else has more than two congressional endorsements. All have room to grow, but Trump definitely has a head start in demonstrating this marker of institutional support from within the party.
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Over at FHQ Plus...
- There are 31 states and territories on the Democratic side that have made draft delegate selection plans publicly available ahead of the May 3 deadline to submit the plans to the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee for approval. That means there are still 26 states and territories that have not gone (as) public at this time. Still, there is a lot buried in all the available plans, a number of clues about the calendar included.
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On this date...
...in 1992, the Virginia Democratic caucuses kicked off and were scheduled to continue through April 13. Bill Clinton ultimately took the most delegates from the event.
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