Invisible Primary: Visible -- Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...
First, over at FHQ Plus...
- This week we have explored Delaware potentially being on the move on the primary calendar, taken a truer measure of the crucial spot into which the Trump trial in Manhattan is on the Republican primary calendar and the contingency plans Idaho Democrats are making (but hoping against). All the details at FHQ Plus.
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In Invisible Primary: Visible today...
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Early last week FHQ discussed the organizational strengths the still-nascent DeSantis campaign had through the lens of endorsements. And that is not the only area where the now-announced candidate DeSantis is excelling relative to those who are vying to be the main alternative to former President Trump. The Florida governor shrugged off the technically glitchy launch and reeled in $8.2 million in the first 24 hours after his formal announcement. This adds to the total DeSantis coffers (across the formal campaign and affiliated groups) that are already busting at the seams.
This is an effort behind DeSantis that is well-funded in the money primary, staffed with folks who know how to organize for a delegate battle and that is building institutional support within the broader party network. It is a campaign that is built to run through Super Tuesday (at the very least). Now, building to get to that point and actually doing it are two separate matters. But the pieces are in place for DeSantis to stick around for a while.
And not that DeSantis was not already doing the sorts of things that presidential candidates do, but he has an upcoming swing next week through the states with the first three contests on the 2024 Republican presidential primary calendar.
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Invisible Primary quick hits:
- In the staff primary, Tim Scott is filling out his South Carolina team. He added another couple of campaign hands from First Tuesday Strategies with Palmetto state roots, hiring both Luke Byars (2012 Romney, 1996 Dole/Kemp) as general counsel and Philip Habib as state director. Drea Byars was brought on as national finance adviser and Sarah Jane Walker from the state Republican Party as operations director in the state.
- North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum continues inching toward a bid, envisioning "a path for himself by focusing less on culture war grievances and more on the economy, energy policy and national security."
- In the travel primary, former Vice President Mike Pence is laying the groundwork for campaign in Iowa that makes the Hawkeye state and the caucuses there its central focus.
- And there is more from on the ground in Iowa about Nikki Haley leaning on retail politics to set her apart from the rest of the growing field of Republican candidates.
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It is hard not to get the sense that the fixation on Glenn Youngkin 2024 is stuck in this weird feedback loop.
- Donors looking for a viable Trump alternative keep approaching Youngkin about running.
- Youngkin reaches out to other donors about securing the requisite funding for such a run.
- Media reports on the entreaties from both sides.
- Repeat.
Forget mixed signals. All of this continues despite the fact that Youngkin would not officially jump into the race until after the November state legislative races in Virginia. You know, less than two months before voting likely starts in Iowa. Never mind that Youngkin 2024 would have to launch before November on ballot access grounds alone. Plus there appears to be a certain collective amnesia about the whole thing. It may or may not be on the tail end, but there is still an entertaining of the idea that Ron DeSantis may have waited too long to get into the 2024 race. If late May is too long, then November would be way too long. That may have been lost in the feedback loop.
This talk is likely to continue as the uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump and the impact of his legal troubles has on the race ebbs and flows and whether or if DeSantis rebounds any.
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On this date...
...in 1980, George H.W. Bush withdraws as former California Governor Ronal Reagan crosses the delegate threshold to clinch the 1980 Republican presidential nomination. [Fun fact (and marker of just how much the world has changed): Bush informed Reagan of his decision to leave the race via telegram.]
...in 1992, President George H.W Bush and Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton both swept primaries in Arkansas, Idaho and Kentucky. The Democratic primary in the Gem state was a beauty contest. Idaho Democrats gathered in March 3 caucuses, giving Iowa Senator Tom Harkin a narrow victory.
...in 2016, Donald Trump surpassed the 1237 delegates necessary to claim the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.
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