Invisible Primary: Visible -- Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...
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In Invisible Primary: Visible today...
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KSNV this morning is reporting that the Nevada Republican Party intends to sue to have presidential caucuses reinstated in the Silver state for 2024. Things have been quiet in Nevada on the primary calendar front, but the primary or caucus question there is one of the key decisions in the finalization of the 2024 presidential primary calendar. And this is the clearest signal yet as to how Nevada Republicans plan to allocate and select delegates in 2024.
The Nevada Republican Party was not exactly glowing in its description of the new primary: Due to the inability of Nevada Democrats to execute a smooth, efficient caucus, they want to use unaccountable dark money in an attempt to force Republicans to change the way we choose our Presidential nominee, and allow out-of-state interests to interfere in the Nevada GOP nominating process.
Bluster aside, the legal argument was not provided according to the KSNV report, but it is likely to include as its foundation a political party's first amendment right to freely of associate; that the party has the right to determine its process for choosing its candidates (or in this case, its presidential preference). There is no opt-out clause in the law that in 2021 established a presidential primary in the Silver state. However, that law does prohibit caucuses from occurring before the presidential primary. The provision was included more to insure that delegates would be allocated/selected based on the results of the presidential primary, but did not properly account for the fact that a state party may not want to participate in the state-funded presidential primary.
And Nevada Republicans likely have a leg to stand on there. This may free the party to officially go the caucus route in 2024, but it probably will not end the presidential primary. The big question is whether the prohibition on scheduling the caucuses before the primary is struck down. Nevada Republicans do not need to hold caucuses before February 6, but this move does cast some doubt on where those caucuses may end up next year.
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This is not exactly invisible primary-related, but Elaine Kamarck and Michael Hais at Brookings have a nice look at the gender gap in the youth vote. It is worth reading with both primary season and the general election in mind.
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Invisible Primary quick hits:
- FHQ mentioned last week that the Georgia Republican state convention next week would feature three presidential candidates. Well, make that four. According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, former Vice President Mike Pence will join Donald Trump, Asa Hutchinson and Vivek Ramaswamy as a speaker at the convention next week. [Speaking of the Peach state, the AJC also has a cool presidential candidate visit (to Georgia) tracker.]
- Axios has the scoop that Chris Christie will announce his presidential run in New Hampshire next Tuesday.
- Ron DeSantis was in Iowa yesterday and the state will be big for the Florida governor. But despite the fact that Karl Rove is raving about the strategy and the success it has had for (recent) past Iowa caucus winners, no one since George W. Bush has won Iowa and gone on to claim the Republican presidential nomination.
- Tim Scott is coming off a recent trip to New Hampshire, but his faith-based campaign is not necessarily a good fit in the Granite state. NH Journal looks at the angle Scott's campaign is taking.
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On this date...
...in 2002, Vermont Governor Howard Dean filed paperwork with the Federal Elections Commission establishing an exploratory committee for what would be his run for the 2004 Democratic presidential nomination.
...in 2008, the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee voted to partially reverse its full penalty on rogue primary states, Florida and Michigan as the party's contentious primary contest wound down. The vote restored the full delegations but granted each delegate just half a vote. In a pre-convention concession from the Obama campaign, all delegates were seated and with full voting rights in Denver. [NOTE: This reversal and subsequent concession is important for 2024. It is a precedent that is fueling New Hampshire Democrats' defiance of the DNC calendar changes for the 2024 cycle.]
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