Invisible Primary: Visible -- Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...
First, over at FHQ Plus...
- One of the early tests of campaign organizational mettle will be in how able the candidates are in getting on the ballot across 57 states and territories in late 2023 and early 2024. Those hurdles often separate the wheat from the chaff in a competitive presidential nomination field. All the details at FHQ Plus.
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In Invisible Primary: Visible today...
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Normally, FHQ would not necessarily pay much attention to the musings of a random Republican congressperson from Nebraska. But Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE, 2nd) recently offered some interesting comments on the 2024 Republican presidential nomination race. Yes, the congressman has been outspoken and skeptical of Donald Trump, and earlier this month followed the lead of a few others in the US House and Senate who have unendorsed the former president.
But Bacon's comments on Wednesday highlighted anew the freezing effect that Trump's presence in the race and hold over a loyal segment of the Republican primary electorate continues to have:
“It is so important to have someone who unites more people than divides.”...
“Someone like Tim Scott is an example. I haven’t endorsed him, but he has a message I really like right now. It’s about America’s best days are ahead, and about bringing people into the party — and the Reagan rule that if you’re with me 80% of the time, we’re on the same team; I don’t hate you.”
Perhaps, like South Dakota Senator Mike Rounds, Bacon is kind of sort of pre-endorsing the junior senator from South Carolina. Maybe he is still considering the non-Trump options (which is understandable). There remains a great deal of uncertainty in the race. But by not sending a direct signal of support for Scott, Bacon is also sending a signal. It is a non-endorsement that may elevate Tim Scott in some sense, but not nearly to the extent the Palmetto state senator wants or needs at this point in the race. And that would only seem to further buttress Trump, whether the former president is actually freezing would-be endorsers or not.
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The border issue animates the Republican Party base and Eagle Pass in Texas has become a popular stop for presidential candidates, upping the Lone Star state's value in the travel primary as primary season in 2024 approaches. It does not hurt that Texas has a Super Tuesday primary.
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Jonathan Bernstein has a solid piece on Robert F. Kennedy Jr. up at Bloomberg. As he notes, presidential primaries define parties, but in elevating Kennedy, media on the right may only be redefining the Republican Party rather than hurting President Biden's chances on the Democratic side.
And Philip Bump has a nice companion item over at The Washington Post that shows that while Kennedy's support has not really increased since he entered the Democratic nomination race, his favorability has.
...among Republicans (as they have sunk with Democrats).
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On this date...
...in 2012, Fred Karger's long shot bid for the Republican presidential nomination came to a close.
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