Invisible Primary: Visible -- Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...
First, over at FHQ Plus...
- The Trump campaign influenced frontrunner-friendly delegate allocation rules on the state level for 2020. One of the state parties that made it that way was Massachusetts, but Bay state Republicans are eyeing rules changes for 2024 that may diminish the frontrunner advantage in the allocation. All the details at FHQ Plus.
If you haven't checked out FHQ Plus yet, then what are you waiting for? Subscribe below for free and consider a paid subscription to support FHQ's work and unlock the full site.
In Invisible Primary: Visible today...
...
The Des Moines Register had a fantastic and well-researched piece on the impact the Republican National Committee debate qualification rules may be having on the regular rhythms on the campaign trail in Iowa, home to the first-in-the-nation caucuses. Visits are down versus previous cycles. Ads are up.
What's different? For one there is a more stringent set of RNC debate criteria requiring both a polling and donor threshold for the first debate rather than the either/or requirement Democrats had four years ago. It is a persuasive argument about the nationalization of the presidential nomination process overall. But that is not new in 2023. And it was not new in 2019 either. But this is the latest manifestation of the nationalization of the process that has been going on for quite some time, pushing further and more meaningfully into the invisible primary every cycle.
Look, it is not that Iowa does not and will not matter. There will continue to be value in being first (no matter which state is there). It is only that the Hawkeye state, first or not, is just another state. Still first, but first after significant jockeying in the invisible primary. The debate qualifications build on that evolution.
...
Benjy Sarlin had a nice piece up at Semafor today that kind of builds on something Amy Walter touched on last month. It is one of those 2024 is not 2016 because Trump is more popular pieces. But it takes things a step further, pushing back against the recent Romney notion that Republicans should consolidate behind a Trump alternative before Super Tuesday next year.
And the argument is simple enough: Republicans already did that for 2024. They massed behind the idea of DeSantis and it is not going at all well to this point. As Sarlin points out, there are not alternatives waiting in the wings who can save this thing in the way that only the rosiest depictions of Rick Perry (pre-launch) could in 2012. [Or Jeb Bush. Or some other white knight.]
It just does not work that way. And it is not that parties cannot coordinate in that way. It is that a broader party network cannot coordinate in that way that quickly, try as it might. Folks might respond that Democrats coordinated quite quickly, aligning behind Joe Biden after South Carolina in 2020. And while that is true, Biden had been the frontrunner throughout much of the invisible primary in 2018-19. He was the former vice president. He was not coming into the race anew at that point in late February 2020. In other words (and probably too simplistically), Biden was an easier point of coordination.
Trump is popular and DeSantis may still be the best point of alternative coordination for Republicans in 2023-24. And that may be a cause for celebration among DeSantis fans as much as it is depressing for a certain segment of Republicans.
...
From around the invisible primary...
- There may have been some complaints in recent days about the paid canvassing operation that Never Back Down, the super PAC affiliated with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, but the group hit one million doors knocked last week in Greenville, South Carolina. One may question the effectiveness of the canvassing effort across seven states, including the four early voting states, but that is a notable milestone even if the success rate is not one hundred percent. More than half of the interactions have been in South Carolina (390,000 knocks) and Iowa (211,000 knocks).
- New Jersey 101.5 dug into the FEC reports from the Garden state and former President Donald Trump so far leads the way in receipts with more than half a million dollars to his credit.
- Also in the money primary, DeSantis is expected, although it is not confirmed, to attend a fundraiser in Greenwich, Connecticut in September. The event is said to be host by Scott Frantz and his wife, who have held similar fundraisers in the past for George W. Bush and Mitt Romney.
- Elsewhere in the travel primary, DeSantis will headline South Carolina Rep. Jeff Duncan's Faith and Freedom BBQ in the Upstate next month.
- In the endorsement primary, Florida Senator Rick Scott remains on the sidelines and seems intent on keeping his endorsement in the non-endorsement category at the presidential level.
- Vivek Ramaswamy filled the room in in Muscatine, Iowa and had to cancel an event in Nevada over the weekend because demand was so high.
--
No comments:
Post a Comment