The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
MD-102
(13)
|
RI-4
(162)
|
NH-4
(263)
|
TX-38
(161)
|
TN-11
(61)
|
HI-4
(17)
|
NJ-14
(176)
|
CO-94
(272 | 275)
|
SC-9
(123)
|
AR-6
(50)
|
VT-3
(20)
|
OR-7
(183)
|
FL-29
(301 | 266) |
MO-10
(114)
|
ND-3
(44)
|
MA-11
(31)
|
MN-10
(193)
|
NC-15
(316 | 237) |
IN-11
(104)
|
NE-53
(41)
|
CA-55
(86)
|
ME-23
(195)
|
NV-6
(322 | 222)
|
UT-6
(93)
|
KY-8
(36)
|
NY-29
(115)
|
NM-5
(200)
|
OH-18
(216)
|
MS-6
(87)
|
AL-9
(28)
|
IL-20+13
(136)
|
WI-10
(210)
|
IA-6
(198)
|
SD-3
(81)
|
ID-4
(19)
|
DE-3
(139)
|
MI-16
(226)
|
AZ-11
(192)
|
KS-6
(78)
|
WV-5
(15)
|
WA-12
(151)
|
VA-13
(239)
|
GA-16+13
(181)
|
LA-8
(72)
|
OK-7
(10)
|
CT-7
(158)
|
PA-20
(259)
|
AK-3
(164)
|
MT-3
(64)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above. 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Alaska
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Indiana
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Mississippi
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Oregon
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Strong Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Utah
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
--
--
Chronology of Category Changes
[Click dates in tables below for more on what prompted the category change]
| Changes (November 7) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio | Toss Up Clinton | Toss Up Trump | |
| Pennsylvania | Lean Clinton | Toss Up Clinton | |
Notes:
Clinton 322
Trump 216
| Changes (November 4) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Hampshire | Lean Clinton | Toss Up Clinton | |
| Changes (October 21) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utah | Strong Trump | Lean Trump | |
| Changes (October 18) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | Strong Trump | Lean Trump | |
| Changes (October 12) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maine CD2 | Lean Trump | Toss Up Trump | |
| Changes (October 8) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | Strong Trump | Lean Trump | |
| Oregon | Strong Clinton | Lean Clinton | |
| Changes (October 6) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rhode Island | Lean Clinton | Strong Clinton | |
| Changes (October 4) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi | Lean Trump | Strong Trump | |
| Pennsylvania | Toss Up Clinton | Lean Clinton | |
| Changes (October 3) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon | Lean Clinton | Strong Clinton | |
| Changes (October 1) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | Lean Trump | Strong Trump | |
| Kansas | Lean Trump | Strong Trump | |
| Maine | Toss Up Clinton | Lean Clinton | |
| Mississippi | Strong Trump | Lean Trump | |
| Oregon | Strong Clinton | Lean Clinton | |
| Utah | Lean Trump | Strong Trump | |
Notes:
Maine's second congressional district shifts to Trump's side of partisan line.
Clinton 340
Trump 198
| Changes (September 30) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada | Toss Up Trump | Toss Up Clinton | |
Notes:
Clinton 341
Trump 197
| Changes (September 27) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | Lean Clinton | Toss Up Clinton | |
| Changes (September 25) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | Lean Clinton | Toss Up Clinton | |
| Maine | Lean Clinton | Toss Up Clinton | |
Notes:
Clinton falls under 270 electoral votes in her Strong and Lean states after Colorado and Maine shift in to Toss Up territory. The electoral vote distribution remains Clinton 335, Trump 203.
| Changes (September 23) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | Lean Trump | Strong Trump | |
| Changes (September 21) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada | Toss Up Clinton | Toss Up Trump | |
Notes:
Clinton: 335
Trump: 203
| Changes (September 9) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | Lean Trump | Strong Trump | |
| Changes (September 7) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Connecticut | Lean Clinton | Strong Clinton | |
| Missouri | Toss Up Trump | Lean Trump | |
| Rhode Island | Strong Clinton | Lean Clinton | |
| Changes (August 18) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada | Toss Up Trump | Toss Up Clinton | |
Notes:
Clinton 347 (+6)
Trump 191 (-6)
| Changes (August 17) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi | Toss Up Trump | Strong Trump | |
| Changes (August 14) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Hampshire | Toss Up Clinton | Lean Clinton | |
Notes:
Clinton over 270 electoral votes on the weight of just Strong and Lean states. Blue-leaning toss ups are superfluous.
| Changes (August 12) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia | Toss Up Clinton | Lean Clinton | |
| Changes (August 11) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Carolina | Lean Trump | Toss Up Trump | |
| Changes (August 9) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri | Lean Trump | Toss Up Trump | |
| Changes (August 8) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utah | Toss Up Trump | Lean Trump | |
| Changes (August 7) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | Toss Up Clinton | Toss Up Trump | |
Notes:
Clinton 341 (-11)
Trump 197 (+11)
| Changes (August 4) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | Toss Up Clinton | Lean Clinton | |
| Changes (August 3) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | Toss Up Trump | Toss Up Clinton | |
| Tennessee | Lean Trump | Strong Trump | |
Notes:
Clinton 352 (+11)
Trump186 (-11)
| Changes (July 27) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | Toss Up Trump | Lean Trump | |
| Changes (July 19) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada | Toss Up Clinton | Toss Up Trump | |
Notes:
Clinton 341 (-6)
Trump 197 (+6)
| Changes (July 17) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia | Lean Up Clinton | Toss Up Clinton | |
| Changes (July 16) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | Toss Up Clinton | Toss Up Trump | |
Notes:
Clinton 347 (-6)
Trump 191 (+6)
| Changes (July 15) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri | Toss Up Trump | Lean Trump | |
| Virginia | Toss Up Clinton | Lean Clinton | |
| Changes (July 13) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | Toss Up Clinton | Lean Clinton | |
| Changes (July 12) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | Lean Clinton | Toss Up Clinton | |
| Changes (July 11) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada | Toss Up Trump | Toss Up Clinton | |
| Oregon | Toss Up Clinton | Lean Clinton | |
Notes:
Clinton 353 (+6)
Trump 185 (-6)
| Changes (July 8) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | Toss Up Clinton | Toss Up Trump | |
| Nevada | Lean Clinton | Toss Up Trump | |
| New Hampshire | Lean Clinton | Toss Up Clinton | |
Notes:
Clinton 347 (-17)
Trump 191 (+17)
| Changes (July 5) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | Lean Clinton | Toss Up Clinton | |
| Changes (June 27) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | Lean Clinton | Toss Up Clinton | |
| Maine | Strong Clinton | Lean Clinton | |
| Wisconsin | Strong Clinton | Lean Clinton | |
| Changes (June 23) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | Strong Trump | Lean Trump | |
| Changes (June 14) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | Strong Trump | Lean Clinton | |
Notes:
Clinton 364 (+6)
Trump 174 (-6)
Initial projection (6/13/16):
Clinton 358
Trump 180
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