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UPDATE: Here's a look at the 2008 results using the 2012-2020 electoral college along with the electoral college spectrum and a look at the potential battleground states for 2012.
Census Bureau: Texas Gains the Most in Population
Last State Population Estimates Before 2010 Census Counts
Texas gained more people than any other state between July 1, 2008, and July 1, 2009 (478,000), followed by California (381,000), North Carolina (134,000), Georgia (131,000) and Florida (114,000), according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau estimatesCalifornia remained the most populous state, with a July 1, 2009, population of 37 million. Rounding out the top five states were Texas (24.8 million), New York (19.5 million), Florida (18.5 million) and Illinois (12.9 million).
"This is the final set of Census Bureau state population estimates that will be published before the official 2010 Census population counts to be released next December," said Census Bureau Director Robert Groves. "We are focused now on ensuring we get a complete and accurate count in 2010. The census counts will not only determine how many U.S. House seats each state will have but will also be used as the benchmark for future population estimates."
Wyoming showed the largest percentage growth: its population climbed 2.12 percent to 544,270 between July 1, 2008, and July 1, 2009. Utah was next largest, growing 2.10 percent to 2.8 million. Texas ranked third, as its population climbed 1.97 percent to 24.8 million, with Colorado next (1.81 percent to 5 million).
The only three states to lose population over the period were Michigan (-0.33 percent), Maine (-0.11 percent) and Rhode Island (-0.03 percent). The latter two states had small population changes.
Other highlights:
- Net domestic migration has slowed dramatically in many states in the South and West, including Nevada, Arizona, Idaho, North Carolina, South Carolina and Montana.
- Several states have negative net domestic migration, which means more people are moving out than moving in. Florida and Nevada, which earlier in the decade had net inflows, are now experiencing new outflows.
- Louisiana’s July 1, 2009 population, 4.5 million, is up 40,563, or 0.91 percent, from a year earlier.
- The nation’s population as of July 1, 2009, was 307 million, an increase of 0.86 percent since July 1, 2008.
- The estimated July 1, 2009, population for Puerto Rico was 4 million, up by 0.32 percent (12,735) from one year earlier.
"Our central claim is that a substantial, systematic bias against the urban party does not require any intentional manipulation of maps by its opponents. On the contrary, our contention is that under political geography conditions that are quite common in industrialized societies, virtually any districting scheme that privileges compactness and contiguity will produce a bias against the urban party."In other words, if you were to take an evenly divided state with some number of urban centers and randomly divide the state into congressional or state legislative districts -- while adhering to the court mandated principles of compactness and contiguity -- the party most representative of the urban areas would garner substantially fewer than 50% of the seats in the congressional delegation or in either state legislative chamber. If, for example, you were to take, say, Florida and its basically tied election in 2000 and just randomly draw some districts (Well, not randomly. You'd have to keep the population in each district proportionate to the other districts.), the urban party wouldn't receive 50% of the seats (to approximate 50% of the statewide vote). That party would be more likely to get between 39-42% of the seats.
State Government Control (in states likely to gain or lose congressional seats following the 2010 Census) | |||||
State | +/- seats | Governor's Party | State House Control* | State Senate Control* | 2010 Elections** |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona | +2 | Districts drawn by commission | |||
Florida | +2 | R | R | R | governor, house |
Georgia | +1 | R | R | R | governor, house, senate |
Illinois | -1 | D | D | D | governor, house |
Iowa | -1 | D | D | D | governor, house |
Louisiana | -1 | R | D | D | *** |
Massachusetts | -1 | D | D | D | governor, house, senate |
Michigan | -1 | D | D | R | governor, house, senate |
Minnesota | -1 | R | D | D | governor, house, senate |
Missouri | -1 | D | R | R | house |
Nevada | +1 | R | D | D | governor, house |
New Jersey | -1 | Districts drawn by commission | |||
New York | -1 | D | D | D | governor, house, senate |
Ohio | -2 | D | D | R | governor, house |
Pennsylvania | -1 | D | D | R | governor, house |
South Carolina | +1 | R | R | R | governor, house |
Texas | +4 | R | R | R | governor, house |
Utah | +1 | R | R | R | governor, house |
*Source: National Conference of State Legislatures **Source: National Conference of State Legislatures ***Next round of state level elections: 2011 |