Obama v. Pawlenty (2012 Trial Heats, July '10)

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The next series of updates are for candidates with only three polls (or less) conducted in hypothetical 2012 general election match ups against President Obama. As such, the trend analyses for Tim Pawlenty, Ron Paul and Jeb Bush are more susceptible to wild fluctuations given the relatively scant level of data available compared to the four candidates (Gingrich, Huckabee, Palin and Romney) covered thus far. These are clearly cases where other variables -- presidential approval and state of the economy -- may be helpful in balancing out polls like the Politico internet poll. In the midst of many other polls, that survey merely appears as an outlier. It is still an outlier for a candidate with just a few polls against Obama, but in such a case, it serves as a distinct statistical anchor. In such cases, the straight average "feels" more trustworthy for the three candidates with more than one survey conducted against Obama.

That is true for Tim Pawlenty. The Politico survey underestimates both Obama's and Pawlenty's shares of poll respondents given the other data available. It is difficult to fathom, for instance, either Obama below 40% support or Pawlenty, despite a lack of national name recognition, mustering just more than 20% support. Now, to be completely honest, a simple average is just as susceptible to outliers, but the numbers for Obama are much closer to the range in which they lie against the Big Four prospective Republican candidates. Similarly, Pawlenty's numbers, while still low, are at least closer the level of support an unknown, yet named, Republican candidate.

More than anything, this may have been what spurred Pawlenty and his inner circle to produce and release the video FHQ mentioned on Thursday. The timing was a bit abnormal, but the intent is clear, despite nary a mention of a presidential race or 2012. And hopefully, it will serve as an impetus for other polling outlets to include Pawlenty in future surveys. Political junkies thinking of 2012 can hope so at least. Trips to Iowa certainly aren't hurting those chances either.

2012 Presidential Trial Heat Polling (Obama v. Pawlenty)
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Obama	Pawlenty	Undecided
Politico [Internet]	July 9-14, 2010	+/- 3.1%	1011 likely voters	39	21	40
Public Policy Polling	Dec. 4-7, 2009	+/- 2.8%	1253 likely voters	48	35	17
Public Policy Polling	Oct. 16-19, 2009	+/- 3.5%	766 likely voters	50	30	20
Average				45.67	28.67	--
Regression Average				38.3	20.99	--

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Obama v. Gingrich (2012 Trial Heats, July '10)

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And Newt Gingrich?

The last of the Big Four routinely brought up the rear in terms of performance against Obama relative to the other three (Huckabee, Palin and Romney) during 2009. So far behind did the former speaker lag that Public Policy Polling dropped him from consideration. However, the Georgian did so well in some of the surveys of early primary/caucus states that they brought him back in 2010.

Not unlike the other three, Gingrich has seen President Obama's support dry up in these monthly glimpses into the state of the 2012 race. But it isn't all about Obama trailing off; Gingrich has crept up as well. His polling average is right on 40%, but his time-adjusted estimate brings the former speaker closer to Obama. Gingrich does not fare as well as Huckabee or Romney, but bests Palin against Obama. He settles in just in between both extremes. What is lacking on Gingrich is that there are fewer polls and that PPP surveys make up three-quarters of the data on him. Now, to be fair, PPP makes up the majority of all the candidates' data, but some more variation would likely be helpful. As with the other candidates*, most of the non-PPP polls show Obama with a larger lead. Rasmussen is the exception. But Rasmussen has not asked the Gingrich question yet. Perhaps that will change as we near 2011 and the time when presidential announcements begin to be made.

2012 Presidential Trial Heat Polling (Obama v. Gingrich)
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Obama	Gingrich	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	July 9-12, 2010	+/- 3.8%	667 likely voters	45	46	9
Public Policy Polling	June 4-7, 2010	+/- 3.8%	650 likely voters	47	39	14
Public Policy Polling	May 7-9, 2010	+/- %	707 likely voters	49	42	9
Public Policy Polling	April 9-11, 2010	+/- 3.9%	622 likely voters	45	45	10
CNN	April 9-11, 2010	+/- 3.5%	907 reg. voters	55	43	--
Clarus Research	March 17-20, 2010	+/- 3%	1050 reg. voters	48	36	16
Clarus Research	Aug. 14-18, 2009	+/- 3.1%	1003 voters	52	34	15
Public Policy Polling	Aug. 14-17, 2009	+/- 3.3%	909 likely voters	49	41	10
Public Policy Polling	July 15-16, 2009	+/- 4.1%	577 likely voters	50	42	9
Public Policy Polling	June 12-16, 2009	+/- 3.9%	638 likely voters	49	41	10
Public Policy Polling	May 14-18, 2009	+/- 3.1%	1000 likely voters	53	36	11
Public Policy Polling	April 17-19, 2009	+/- 3.7%	686 likely voters	52	39	9
Average				49.45	40.00	--
Regression Average				46.82	42.24	--

*This seems to hurt Palin the most. She is the candidate most often polled against Obama by other polling firms.

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Obama v. Romney (2012 Trial Heats, July '10)

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Among the four candidate who are surveyed most frequently in hypothetical 2012 general election match ups against President Obama, Mitt Romney does the best. [Yes, that spoils the Gingrich results on some level, but so be it.] The former Massachusetts governor's numbers are on par with Mike Huckabee's as measured by both the straight average of polls conducted and the regression trend estimate, but Romney actually leads Obama in the latter -- the only candidate to do so. While Romney tended to keep Obama's level of support at low levels as compared to most of the other Republicans polled, the 2008 presidential candidate also failed to muster much support of his own during the first half on 2009. Since July of last year, though, Romney has fared far better against Obama compared to the other Republicans across a variety of polling houses.

That consistency across polls has boosted Romney, whereas his closest competitor -- at least by our measure -- Mike Huckabee has been very consistent in the Public Policy Polling surveys while lagging in other polls. Again, that speaks toward Romney's inching upward more than it speaks to Huckabee falling. For all intents and purposes, the two hold a very similar position in relation to Obama in a potential general election race. Romney has some establishment support within the Republican Party, perhaps even similar to what McCain enjoyed in 2008. However, Romney looked good heading into the 2008 primary season too only to fall by the wayside once McCain was able to string together victories in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida heading into the pivotal Super Tuesday states. He will have to show a lot of establishment support if he wants to avoid that fate again.

2012 Presidential Trial Heat Polling (Obama v. Romney)
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Obama	Romney	Undecided
Politico [Internet]	July 9-14, 2010	+/- 3.1%	1011 likely voters	39	35	26
Public Policy Polling	July 9-12, 2010	+/- 3.8%	667 likely voters	43	46	11
Public Policy Polling	June 4-7, 2010	+/- 3.8%	650 likely voters	45	42	13
Public Policy Polling	May 7-9, 2010	+/- %	707 likely voters	46	44	11
Public Policy Polling	April 9-11, 2010	+/- 3.9%	622 likely voters	44	45	10
CNN	April 9-11, 2010	+/- 3.5%	907 reg. voters	53	45	--
Clarus Research	March 17-20, 2010	+/- 3%	1050 reg. voters	45	41	14
Public Policy Polling	March 12-14, 2010	+/- 2.6%	1403 likely voters	44	44	12
Harris [Internet]	March 10-12, 2010	+/- --%	2344 adults	46	39	15
Public Policy Polling	Feb. 13-15, 2010	+/- 3.5%	743 likely voters	45	43	12
Public Policy Polling	Jan. 18-19, 2010	+/- 2.8%	1151 likely voters	44	42	15
Public Policy Polling	Dec. 4-7, 2009	+/- 2.8%	1253 likely voters	47	42	12
Rasmussen	Nov. 24, 2009	+/- 3.5%	800 likely voters	44	44	5
Public Policy Polling	Nov. 13-15, 2009	+/- 3%	1066 likely voters	48	43	9
Public Policy Polling	Oct. 16-19, 2009	+/- 3.5%	766 likely voters	48	40	12
Public Policy Polling	Sept. 18-21, 2009	+/- 3.9%	621 likely voters	48	39	13
Clarus Research	Aug. 14-18, 2009	+/- 3.1%	1003 voters	47	38	15
Public Policy Polling	Aug. 14-17, 2009	+/- 3.3%	909 likely voters	47	40	12
Rasmussen	July 16-17, 2009	+/- 3%	1000 likely voters	45	45	3
Public Policy Polling	July 15-16, 2009	+/- 4.1%	577 likely voters	49	40	11
Public Policy Polling	June 12-16, 2009	+/- 3.9%	638 likely voters	48	40	12
Public Policy Polling	May 14-18, 2009	+/- 3.1%	1000 likely voters	53	35	12
Public Policy Polling	April 17-19, 2009	+/- 3.7%	686 likely voters	50	39	11
Average				46.3	41.18	--
Regression Average				42.97	43.04	--

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Obama v. Huckabee (2012 Trial Heats, July '10)

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On to Mike Huckabee.

How does the former Arkansas governor and 2008 presidential candidate fare against Obama? We are far removed from concerns over gubernatorial commutations of late 2009, but less distance is between those following the prospective 2012 race and talk of Huckabee sitting it out. Indeed, Huckabee has recently reminded those following the 2012 frivolities from this great distance that he does quite well in polls against the president in those hypothetical match ups. There is truth to that notion. The 2008 GOP nomination runner up has consistently been the best positioned Republican in most polls that survey him alongside Palin and Romney (and less frequently Gingrich) against Obama, yet one doesn't get the feeling that the elites within the Republican Party are all that enamored of Huckabee much less his chances for the nomination in 2012 or the general election against Obama. [In fact, Romney, among those named as 2012 possibilities, most strongly holds that distinction.]

Here, though, is Huckabee very closely matched against Obama in polls in 2009 and 2010. If you scroll below to the time series regression, it is evidence of a trend toward parity among the two men in a future race. Still, very much like Obama in 2006-2007, Huckabee is in the position of needing early primary/caucus wins in 2012 to legitimately enter the discussion. The establishment is not behind him like Romney, nor is there as much grassroots passion behind him as Palin commands. That is not a good combination despite good numbers. Unlike Romney, Huckabee cannot lean on the "I'm the better general election candidate" if it is a Palin-Huckabee argument. He doesn't have either of the establishment or grassroots pieces of the nomination puzzle. The former governor has to hope to catch lightning in a bottle again and win Iowa to force the issue.

2012 Presidential Trial Heat Polling (Obama v. Huckabee)
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Obama	Huckabee	Undecided
Politico [Internet]	July 9-14, 2010	+/- 3.1%	1011 likely voters	39	35	25
Public Policy Polling	July 9-12, 2010	+/- 3.8%	667 likely voters	45	47	8
Public Policy Polling	June 4-7, 2010	+/- 3.8%	650 likely voters	46	44	10
Public Policy Polling	May 7-9, 2010	+/- %	707 likely voters	46	45	8
Public Policy Polling	April 9-11, 2010	+/- 3.9%	622 likely voters	45	47	9
CNN	April 9-11, 2010	+/- 3.5%	907 reg. voters	54	45	--
Clarus Research	March 17-20, 2010	+/- 3%	1050 reg. voters	47	39	14
Public Policy Polling	March 12-14, 2010	+/- 2.6%	1403 likely voters	46	44	10
Public Policy Polling	Feb. 13-15, 2010	+/- 3.5%	743 likely voters	46	43	11
Public Policy Polling	Jan. 18-19, 2010	+/- 2.8%	1151 likely voters	44	45	11
Public Policy Polling	Dec. 4-7, 2009	+/- 2.8%	1253 likely voters	50	44	6
Rasmussen	Nov. 24, 2009	+/- 3.5%	800 likely voters	45	41	8
Public Policy Polling	Nov. 13-15, 2009	+/- 3%	1066 likely voters	49	44	7
Public Policy Polling	Oct. 16-19, 2009	+/- 3.5%	766 likely voters	47	43	10
Public Policy Polling	Sept. 18-21, 2009	+/- 3.9%	621 likely voters	48	41	11
Clarus Research	Aug. 14-18, 2009	+/- 3.1%	1003 voters	48	38	15
Public Policy Polling	Aug. 14-17, 2009	+/- 3.3%	909 likely voters	47	44	10
Public Policy Polling	July 15-16, 2009	+/- 4.1%	577 likely voters	48	42	10
Public Policy Polling	June 12-16, 2009	+/- 3.9%	638 likely voters	50	43	8
Public Policy Polling	May 14-18, 2009	+/- 3.1%	1000 likely voters	52	39	9
Public Policy Polling	April 17-19, 2009	+/- 3.7%	686 likely voters	49	42	9
Average				46.88	42.5	--
Regression Average				43.91	43.46	--

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Obama v. Palin (2012 Trial Heats, July '10)

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As FHQ has not updated its 2012 presidential trial heat poll graphics since December, there is a lot of catching up to do. And what better place to start than with the most talked about candidate, former Alaska governor Sarah Palin.

Let me make a few notes before diving in to all of this. First of all, I will spare you the mess of all the candidate data being dumped into one post by splitting this up into one post per candidate. We'll start with Palin and move on to the other candidates who have been surveyed multiple times in a hypothetical match ups against the president. I don't know whether I'll continue this practice in the future, but it makes sense in trying to synthesize all of the data from the first half of 2010. One addition I have made here is to add a table with all the past numbers included (dates, sample sizes, margin of error, etc.). [You'll find that at the conclusion of the post.] Such an inclusion likely works against the traditional -- all candidates in one -- presentation of the data if kept permanently (and I think it should be. There is too much data now not to.). The best course of action in future is likely to have timely breaking news-type updates when new polls are released followed by updated graphics for each candidate and finally a post discussing the trends across all candidates. That is how we will procede in the short term anyway.

There are a few other things to mention as well. Obviously, things are getting bunched up with so many polls having been conducted in the cases of some candidates. This is most problematic in terms of reporting the polling firms on the figure itself. It is really pronounced in the case of Obama v. Palin. I doubt this practice will be able to survive for much longer. FHQ is currently looking into some Flash- and Java-based alternatives that will allow users to simply hover over a data point on the graph and receive the attendant information. I'll keep you posted on that progress and in the meantime, if anyone has suggestions on how to do that relatively quickly and easily, please just drop a note in the comments section or shoot me an email.

And what of Obama and Palin?

For the sake of brevity, FHQ will confine this catch-up analysis to the overall trend throughout 2010. A poll-by-poll analysis eight months into the year seems like overkill. Public Policy Polling has surveyed this match up every month since March 2009 and as such is by far the most consistent player on the 2012 polling front. Palin has fairly regularly brought up the rear compared to the other three regulars (Gingrich, Huckabee and Romney) against Obama and yet, she, like the others has seen her share of respondents increase in 2010 as Obama's approval has declined. The one noticeable trend is that Palin does better in the PPP (and Rasmussen) surveys than she does in polls conducted by other firms. That is likely to elicit the classic robo-call versus live (phone) interview debate among some, but with so few polls from other outlets, FHQ will simply rate it as something to keep tabs on in the future. Palin's PPP presence has shifted from consistently in the 30s in 2009 to consistently in the 40s in 2010. Other firms are more likely to find her in the 30s in 2010.

The bottom line in this hypothetical match up is that Obama stays closer to 50% against Palin than he does against any of the other regular GOP names in the presidential race. I'll dispense with the straight averages comparison -- it is included in the table below -- but will mention the regression time series. Taking that trend into consideration, Obama leads Palin 49-41. That is all well and good, but none of this particularly matters until and unless the Republican nomination race in 2012 boils down to a two person race where general election electability becomes the argument a la Obama v. Clinton in 2008.

2012 Presidential Trial Heat Polling (Obama v. Palin)
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Obama	Palin	Undecided
Politico [Internet]	July 9-14, 2010	+/- 3.1%	1011 likely voters	48	36	16
Time	July 12-13, 2010	+/- --%	1003 adults/873 r.v.	55	34	4
Public Policy Polling	July 9-12, 2010	+/- 3.8%	667 likely voters	46	46	9
Public Policy Polling	June 4-7, 2010	+/- 3.8%	650 likely voters	50	41	9
Public Policy Polling	May 7-9, 2010	+/- %	707 likely voters	50	43	6
Public Policy Polling	April 9-11, 2010	+/- 3.9%	622 likely voters	47	45	7
CNN	April 9-11, 2010	+/- 3.5%	907 reg. voters	55	42	--
Clarus Research	March 17-20, 2010	+/- 3%	1050 reg. voters	52	34	14
Public Policy Polling	March 12-14, 2010	+/- 2.6%	1403 likely voters	49	41	10
Harris [Internet]	March 10-12, 2010	+/- --%	2344 adults	52	35	13
Public Policy Polling	Feb. 13-15, 2010	+/- 3.5%	743 likely voters	50	43	7
Public Policy Polling	Jan. 18-19, 2010	+/- 2.8%	1151 likely voters	49	41	9
Public Policy Polling	Dec. 4-7, 2009	+/- 2.8%	1253 likely voters	50	44	6
Rasmussen	Nov. 24, 2009	+/- 3.5%	800 likely voters	46	43	3
Public Policy Polling	Nov. 13-15, 2009	+/- 3%	1066 likely voters	51	43	5
Public Policy Polling	Oct. 16-19, 2009	+/- 3.5%	766 likely voters	52	40	8
Public Policy Polling	Sept. 18-21, 2009	+/- 3.9%	621 likely voters	53	38	9
Clarus Research	Aug. 14-18, 2009	+/- 3.1%	1003 voters	53	34	13
Public Policy Polling	Aug. 14-17, 2009	+/- 3.3%	909 likely voters	52	38	10
Marist	Aug. 3-6, 2009	+/- 5%	854 reg. voters	56	33	11
Rasmussen	July 16-17, 2009	+/- 3%	1000 likely voters	48	42	3
Public Policy Polling	July 15-16, 2009	+/- 4.1%	577 likely voters	51	43	6
Public Policy Polling	June 12-16, 2009	+/- 3.9%	638 likely voters	52	40	8
Public Policy Polling	May 14-18, 2009	+/- 3.1%	1000 likely voters	56	37	7
Public Policy Polling	April 17-19, 2009	+/- 3.7%	686 likely voters	53	41	6
Public Policy Polling	March 13-15, 2009	+/- 3.7%	691 likely voters	55	35	10
Average				51.2	39.54	--
Regression Average				49.11	40.51	--

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Is it 21 or tied? Obama v. Palin (2012) --Time poll

The talk of the evening and this morning -- at least on the 2012 presidential front -- is the discrepancy between the Public Policy Polling survey on 2012 general election scenarios (FHQ mentioned the numbers from it yesterday.) and a new national poll from Time Magazine. The point of overlap -- again with 2012 in mind -- is the Barack Obama versus Sarah Palin question.

Here's PPP:

Obama: 46

Palin: 46

Not sure: 9

And here's Time:

11. If the presidential election were held today and the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat, and Sarah Palin, the Republican, and you had to choose, for whom would you vote? (Only registered voters responding)

Barack Obama, the Democrat 55%
Sarah Palin, the Republican 34%
Other / Neither 7%
Would not vote in election 1%
Undecided / Don't know / No answer 4%

21-0. That's a large gap. FHQ natural inclination in a situation like this is to split the difference and move on. None of this is without caveat. PPP has conducted a national 2012 trial heat poll between Obama and Palin every month since March 2009. The Raleigh-based polling outfit, then, has established something of a baseline in this hypothetical race. But there has been some variability in those polls as well. Things were similarly tight between the two candidates back in April before jumping back into the high single digits in May and to ten points a month ago.

So, before saying the true, yes hypothetical, lead is 10 points and moving on, allow FHQ one last comment. Tom Jensen said it best in the wrap up to his post on the poll's highlights a day ago. I'm paraphrasing here: Perhaps we'll look back on this time and see this as an aberration for Obama or the point at which the wheels really began falling off. That's true. One thing is for certain though and this hasn't really been talked about enough. No other Republican candidate can solidify the Democratic base better than Palin. To be sure, she can perhaps do a good job of unifying the Republican Party as well. Her presence on the ballot would do wonders for the oft-cited enthusiasm gap that the GOP holds in terms of voter turnout during 2010 (and maybe 2012 as well). It would neutralize it. What Palin has to do if she is serious about a run at the White House is figure out the formula for adding independents. Until the former Alaska governor can do that consistently, the true gap between her and Obama will likely stay in that high single digit to 10 point range. If Obama keeps trending downward, that won't hurt Palin's cause.

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PPP: 2012 Trial Heats (July '10): GOP Candidates Sweep Past Obama

Public Policy Polling [pdf] today released the numbers on their monthly national survey on the 2012 presidential election. From all indications, President Obama is losing independents; something that has been seen in recent approval numbers as well. Obama trails (Gingrich, Huckabee, Romney) or ties (Palin) all four of the major Republican candidates.

Here's the breakdown:

Obama: 45

Gingrich: 46

Not sure: 9

Obama: 45

Huckabee: 47

Not sure: 8

Obama: 46

Palin: 46

Not sure: 9

Obama: 43

Romney: 46

Not sure: 11

Tom Jensen puts the numbers in perspective well at the conclusion of his post on the poll:

Obviously 2012 is a long ways off and the immediate relevance of these numbers is limited. It's possible we'll look back on polls like this 28 months from now after Obama's been reelected and laugh. But it's also possible that we'll look back on the summer of 2010 after he's been defeated and see it as the time when his prospects for reelection really took a turn for the worse. For now there's really no way to tell.

No way to tell indeed, but those traditional indicators of presidential electoral success -- presidential approval and the economy -- certainly aren't hurting the GOP's prospects at the moment.

[Note: I hope to have an update of the monthly graphs up sometime this evening, but if not, they'll be up in the morning. As I mentioned on Twitter yesterday, FHQ is woefully behind on those figures. Rest assured, it is on our To-Do list.]

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Gallup on 2012: Obama in a Deadlock with Generic Republican

Oh, and there was an open-ended GOP primary question too. [Here's the Gallup release.]

2012 General Election

Obama: 44%

Republican: 42%

Other: 3%

Not Sure: 11%

Sample: 1025 adults (nationwide)

Margin of Error: +/- 4%

Conducted: Feb 1-3, 2010

Notes: Obama garners nearly 90% support from Democrats and the Republican gets 86% from Republicans in the survey. Among independents, though, the GOP holds a 45%-31% advantage over the president.

2012 GOP Primary Race

Romney: 14%

Palin: 11%

McCain: 7%

(Scott) Brown: 4%

Huckabee: 3%

Gingrich: 3%

Paul: 2%

Pawlenty: 1%

(Bob) McDonnell: 1%

Fred Thompson: 1%

Jindal: 1%

Other: 10%

None/No Opinion: 42%

Sample: 495 Republicans or Republican-leaning independents (nationwide)

Margin of Error: +/-5%

Conducted: Feb 1-3, 2010

Notes: That's a lot of survey respondents who have no opinion or chose no one. Despite that lack of a clear "face of the party," the generic GOP candidate still fares rather well against the president. Yes, generics usually do pretty well, but still, it isn't a bad place to be if you happen to be on the right.

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PPP: 2012 Presidential Trial Heats (Jan. '10): Obama Trails (Huckabee) for the First Time

MA Senate Special: Open Thread

PPP: 2012 Presidential Trial Heats (Jan. '10): Obama Trails (Huckabee) for the First Time

Public Policy Polling [pdf] today released their monthly look at the 2012 presidential playing field. Here's a quick look a the toplines (I'll be back later with a full analysis and updated figures.):

Huckabee: 45%
Obama: 44%

Undecided: 11%

Obama: 49%
Palin: 41%
Undecided: 9%

Obama: 44%
Petraeus: 34%
Undecided: 21%

Obama: 44%
Romney: 42%
Undecided: 15%


Margin of Error: +/- 2.8%
Sample: 1151 registered voters (nationwide)
Conducted: January 18-19, 2010

NOTES:

1) The president is under 50% against all four prospective GOP presidential aspirants in this month's poll for the first time since PPP started these examinations last March. How is January going for the president again?

2) The sample voted for McCain in 2008 at the same rate as the actual results (46%), but Obama has dropped off in this sample versus the actual vote total in November 2008 (53% to 47%). Yes, the sample still favors the Obama slightly, but that makes for a much more competitive balance between the president and his Republican counterparts.

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MA Senate Special: Open Thread

Final Democratic Change Commission Meeting

Merry Christmas from FHQ

Public Policy Polling: December 2009 Presidential Trial Heats In Depth

You can find the archive of all the 2012 trial heat polls here.

In a month when President Obama slipped into the 40s against each Republican polled against him in a hypothetical 2012 general election match up (via Public Policy Polling [pdf]), things obviously were not looking that good across the board. In an overall sense, we quickly get a feel for that tightening simply by looking at the trendlines for each of the prospective Republican presidential aspirants (There's now even a trendline for Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty -- see below and in the left sidebar).

[Click to Enlarge]

Obama: 46%
Huckabee: 45%
Undecided: 9%

[Click to Enlarge]

Obama: 50%
Palin: 44%
Undecided: 6%

[Click to Enlarge]

Obama: 48%
Pawlenty: 35%
Undecided: 17%

[Click to Enlarge]

Obama: 47%
Romney: 42%
Undecided: 12%

Margin of Error: +/- 2.8%
Sample: 1253 registered voters (nationwide)
Conducted: December 4-7, 2009

There isn't really much to the poll other than to say that overall, things are much closer than they were, say, at the beginning of PPP's process of looking at the the 2012 back in March (Palin) and April (Gingrich, Huckabee, Romney added). And that largely tracks with the president's approval numbers throughout the year. FHQ would be remiss, though, if we didn't at least bring up a few nuggets from the internals of the poll.

On the 2008 presidential vote:

• Huckabee does the best of any of the Republican candidates at pulling together the most McCain voters (85%) and minimizing the number of repeat Obama voters (89%). The former Arkansas governor was the only Republican to keep Obama's support among his former voters below 90%.

On ideology:

• President Obama is still approaching 90% approval among liberals and is right at two-thirds approval among moderates. Not surprisingly, the president is taking the biggest hit among self-described conservatives (only 15% approve).
• Sarah Palin is the most favorable candidate to conservatives, but both she and Mike Huckabee garner 79% support from the group against the president.
  

On age:

• Obama consistently loses the 65+ set and essentially breaks even (to slightly loses) the 46-65 demographic to all the Republicans polled. However, the president is well above 50% with everyone under 45.

On race:

• Palin is the most favorable Republican among Hispanic respondents, but only reaches 37% favorability. The president continues to hold over 90% support among registered African American voters and about two-thirds of Hispanic voters against all four Republicans.

On gender:

• Men still prefer Republicans and women Obama, but this is noteworthy because it is the first time Sarah Palin has led the president among men (48-45) in a PPP survey.
  

On region:

• The quirk is gone (...in December at least). Obama didn't sweep the South as he has on several other occasions in these PPP polls. Instead, the president was swept in the region where the Republican Party found its base in the 2008 presidential election. More troubling to Obama from an electoral standpoint is that the president was swept by all four Republicans in the midwest. The president was able to make inroads in the peripheral South in 2008 and can potentially afford to jettison states like Virginia and North Carolina in 2012. But if Michigan and Indiana and Ohio begin to creep into the mix in terms of competitiveness, things could get interesting in the fall of 2012. Much of that will depend on the state of the economy, though.
  

What will January and a new year bring? Stay tuned.


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PPP: 2012 Presidential Trial Heats (Dec. '09): Huckabee within 1 Point of Obama

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PPP: 2012 Presidential Trial Heats (Dec. '09): Huckabee within 1 Point of Obama

Public Policy Polling [pdf] today released their monthly look at the 2012 presidential playing field. Here's a quick look a the toplines (I'll be back later with a full analysis and updated figures.*):

Obama: 46%
Huckabee: 45%
Undecided: 9%

Obama: 50%
Palin: 44%
Undecided: 6%

Obama: 48%
Pawlenty: 35%
Undecided: 17%

Obama: 47%
Romney: 42%
Undecided: 12%


Margin of Error: +/- 2.8%
Sample: 1253 registered voters (nationwide)
Conducted: December 4-7, 2009

Quick notes:
1) Palin is ahead of Obama among men (a first).
2) Obama didn't sweep the South this month. Every GOP candidate was ahead of the president in the region most loyal to the GOP and the midwest isn't looking too good either.
3) Huckabee was the only Republican to break even in terms of favorability/unfavorability. The other three Republicans had higher unfavorables.
4) Palin still has yet to bring Obama under the 50% mark in these PPP polls.

*Two polls now for Pawlenty (v. Obama) means we have a new trendline to add to the sidebar.


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Rasmussen 2012 Trial Heats (Nov. '09): Another Tie for Romney Against Obama

There's nothing like Black Friday for a 2012 polling dump. Earlier this week, Rasmussen provided us with its first glance at the 2012 presidential trial heats since July and back in the summer, the firm only included Romney and Palin against Obama. This time they have added Mike Huckabee to the mix, and more interestingly, Lou Dobbs as a third party candidate. But we'll get to that moment. I'll give you the numbers and figures to start and return later to add in the analysis.

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Obama: 45%
Huckabee: 41%
Other: 6%
Not Sure: 8%

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Obama: 46%
Palin: 43%
Other: 9%
Not Sure: 3%

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Obama: 44%
Romney: 44%
Other: 6%
Not Sure: 5%

Pollster: Rasmussen
Margin of Error: +/- 3.5%
Sample: 800 likely voters (nationwide)
Conducted: November 24, 2009

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Not surprisingly, Lou Dobbs hurts the Republican candidates more so than the president when he is included in the line of questioning in the survey. Romney is hit the hardest; losing 10% off his total from the two candidate question. But the former Massachusetts governor had the most to lose since he did the best of the Republicans against Obama in the two candidate polling.

And here's one more from Democracy Corps [pdf] with Dobbs and Nader included as third party candidates.

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Pollster: Democracy Corps
Margin of Error: +/- 3%
Sample: 1000 (2008 election) voters (nationwide)
Conducted: November 12-16, 2009


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Public Policy Polling: November 2009 Presidential Trial Heats In Depth

NOTE: Please note that you can now track past updates of these trial heat polls by clicking here or on the "2012 trial heat polls" tag at the bottom of the post.

For the ninth straight month Public Policy Polling released a series of 2012 presidential trial heat polls matching President Obama up against four prospective Republican candidates. And despite the fact that Obama slipped below 50% for the first time in a few polls this past week (see Gallup, Quinnipiac, PPP), the president wasn't in any significantly different position relative to the Republicans than he was a month ago; just under 50% against all but Sarah Palin and still ahead across the board. Yet, this month while Mike Huckabee remained the closest to the president, he was not alone in that distinction. Mitt Romney climbed to within five points of the president as well, climbing above the 40% mark for the first time in any PPP poll this year.

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Obama: 49%
Huckabee: 44%
Undecided: 7%

That said, Huckabee does better consolidating the conservative and Republican bases. Romney, however, nearly evenly divides the independent support with the president. And that really demonstrates the current tension within the GOP; the battle we've been talking about here at FHQ since Obama claimed victory a year ago. Will Republicans nominate someone in 2012 from a far more conservative background than, say, John McCain, or will efforts be made to make the party's nominee more inviting to independent voters? That continues to be the question as 2009 draws to a close.

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Obama: 51%
Palin: 43%
Undecided: 5%

What's more, this poll from PPP is not without its quirks. [No poll ever is, really.] First, the same bizarre regional disparity that popped up in the polling firm's July poll again reared its head this month. Obama inexplicably swept the South (except for a tie with Ron Paul) again while losing out completely in the midwest. I can foresee the midwest potentially being a problem for Obama in 2012, but there's absolutely no way that the South is vulnerable to Obama inroads; not even if Steve Schmidt's catastrophe occurs. Palin, indeed, proves to be trailing by the largest margin (a distinction shared with Ron Paul), but still loses the South while winning the midwest against the president.

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Obama: 46%
Paul: 38%
Undecided: 16%

If that wasn't enough, Paul actually pulls Obama's support to its lowest level in any of PPP's surveys this year. But is that Ron Paul's impact or is the Texas congressman merely serving, as I asked earlier today, as a proxy for a generic Republican in a hypothetical race against Obama? There are enough undecideds in that match up to raise that question. Independents are not necessarily on board with Paul, but Democrats are least with Obama against Paul than against any other Republican in the survey. As Christian Heinze at GOP12 asked, "Is an Anybody But Obama theme starting to take hold?" Intriguing as that question is, FHQ is almost more interested in a slightly different question: Is an Anybody but Huckabee/Palin/Romney theme starting. Certainly, neither question is being answered very adequately at this point, not in the direct context of the 2012 race anyway. Newt Gingrich, Jeb Bush and especially Tim Pawlenty did not see anywhere near the numbers Paul has in this particular poll. And I say "especially" in Pawlenty's case because he doesn't carry the baggage that Gingrich and Bush carry and is unknown enough to potentially fill the void of generic Republican in a ballot question. But Pawlenty from last month lags well behind Paul's numbers here.

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Obama: 48%
Romney: 43%
Undecided: 9%

All in all, it was another interesting round of numbers from the good folks over in Raleigh. Ron Paul may have earned a spot in next month's poll simply due to his showing here. We'll see.
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NOTE: And just as a bonus, here's the updated Obama/Gingrich trendline. And no, it isn't so much an update as a reminder that Gingrich has not been polled against Obama since August.

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