New Jersey, Virginia & 2010

What do any of the three have to do with each other?

FHQ would argue very little. After examining the polling in both states for the better part of five months, it is fairly clear that these races have virtually no national implications. In New Jersey, the election last night was as much about Jon Corzine as 2006 and 2008 were about George W. Bush. That is to say that each was about an unpopular incumbent. Corzine had not, as FHQ mentioned yesterday, broken the 45% barrier in polling all year and he needed to round his percentage of the vote share up to get there last night. The Democrat's chances hinged completely upon Chris Daggett's ability to siphon off votes from Christie and make 44 or 45% the winning total. When Daggett came up well short of where FHQ and most other monitors expected the independent to end up (He pulled in about half of his expected share; 5%.), Corzine basically had no chance. As was talked about on The Monkey Cage earlier today, someone viewed negatively and behind in the polls has to attack and bring his or her opponent down to their level. Lee Seligman put it better: "It’s not so much that attackers lose as that losers attack." Corzine had to attack, but in the end couldn't bring Christie down to a beatable level.

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The end result in Virginia was the same -- the Republican won -- but the process of getting there was very different. I don't think that Chris Christie or Jon Corzine were particularly great candidates, but in the commonwealth, Bob McDonnell just outclassed Creigh Deeds as a candidate. McDonnell basically held an advantage throughout the year no matter which Democratic candidate was pitted against him; an advantage that crescendoed rapidly when the votes began to be cast a day ago. Deeds, seeing that McDonnell had been spotted an edge, was essentially in the same position John McCain was in a year ago relative to Barack Obama, except the Democrat was without a presidential-level campaign team. [I'm not talking about folks from within the Obama administration. I'm talking about campaign staff that is steeped in experience. McCain had that. Deeds did not.] FHQ isn't here to throw Deeds under the bus. I just think that McDonnell was in the position of being able to take the high road (as most frontrunners are) through the thesis ordeal. Deeds' campaign, meanwhile, latched onto that story and quickly became associated with it to the point that once the issue faded there was no previously constructed message on which Deeds could lean.

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One other thing that might also be mentioned (that I haven't seen discussed anywhere) is how the primaries in this race played out. The parties tinkering with their presidential nomination rules would be wise to take note of this. FHQ won't argue that the Democratic primary battle hurt Deeds. It didn't. But Bob McDonnell was ceded the Republican nomination. In the absence of competition, the former attorney general was never forced to run to the right. Not only did that not provide Deeds or any other Democrat with any fodder for the general election campaign, but it also helped McDonnell, even with the thesis out in the open, to foster a more moderate image. In the end, it isn't the primary battle that's negative so much as the easy road to nomination is beneficial.

Fine, both New Jersey and Virginia were "all politics is local" elections. They were, but they weren't without their cautionary tales for next year's midterm elections. Neither race or outcome is a harbinger, at least not directly, but the underlying numbers present the Democratic Party with a real problem. Let's look at the numbers from 2008 and 2009. No, I don't think that is a fair comparison either, but I did want to compare the level of drop-off from last year to this year across parties. In other words, how much bigger was the drop-off difference between the Democratic and Republican candidates at the top of the ballot?

2009 New Jersey & Virginia Voting Drop-Off (vs. 2008)
State	2008	2009*	Drop-Off
Virginia	Obama: 1,959,532 McCain: 1,725,005	Deeds: 774,676 McDonnell: 1,100,470	Dem: 1,184,856 GOP: 624,535
Total:	3,684,537	1,875,146
New Jersey	Obama: 2,215,422 McCain: 1,613,207	Corzine: 1,048,697 Christie: 1,148,651	Dem: 1,166,725 GOP: 464,556
Total:	3,828,629	2,197,348
*Numbers may have changed slightly since these data were collected on the afternoon of Nov. 4, 2009. Sources: NJ 2008, 2009; VA 2008, 2009

In both cases, turnout dropped by approximately 50% from 2008 to 2009. But the difference between the way in which the number of votes decreased was not uniformly distributed across each party. These are aggregate numbers, so were not talking about the same people in 2008 and 2009, per se. However, it is more than obvious that the Republican Party maintained more of its voters than did the Democrats. In Virginia, Deeds could only hold about 40% of Obama's voters from a year ago. McDonnell, on the other hand, was able to maintain about two-thirds the level of McCain voters. The story in New Jersey was similar. Corzine held but 47% of Obama's level of turnout to Christie's 71% of McCain's.

But that's not all. Some of the exit polling was noteworthy as well. Race actually didn't play that big a role in either state, for instance. The African American share of the electorate on Tuesday was actually higher in New Jersey (14%) than it was in 2008 (12%). In Virginia, there was a decrease in the black share from 20% a year ago to 16% yesterday, and Deeds got the same 92% of those voters that Obama got in 2008. The exit polling breaks on age were also interesting. McDonnell won every age group on Virginia (not surprising when you win by 17 points), while Obama lost narrowly among 40-49 year old and over 65 year old Virginians. In New Jersey, Obama just lost among the senior set while Christie only lost among the very youngest (18-29) group.

The real difference, though, was in the partisan make up of the 2008 versus 2009 electorates (at least through the lens of the exit polling conducted).

2008 vs. 2009 Exit Polling in NJ & VA (Party ID)
State	2009	2008
New Jersey	41% D 31% R 28% I*	44% D 28% R 28% I*
Virginia	33% D 37% R 30% I**	39% D 33% R 27% I**
*Christie won independents 60-30. Obama won them 51-47 over McCain. **McDonnell won independents 66-33. Obama won them 49-48 over McCain. Sources: CNN (NJ and VA) -- 2008, New York Times (NJ and VA) -- 2009

That paints a fairly stark contrast between the two elections. Republicans made up a larger share of the electorate in 2009 and both Republican gubernatorial candidates ran away with the independent vote. If yesterday's results mean anything for 2010, it is that the Democrats may have an enthusiasm gap riddle to solve between now and next year this time. FHQ still contends that these elections were decided based on local forces, but the tie that binds them is the fact that Democrats seemingly sat these races out. Resting up for 2010, or simply complacent post-2008? That is the question.

Outside of that, I'm still scratching my head trying to figure out what a pro-medical marijuana/anti-same sex marriage voter in Maine looks like. Politics is great.


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State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (11/3/09) -- Final

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (11/3/09) -- Final

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (11/3/09) -- Final

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FHQ is of the opinion that it did a better job putting the wraps on this race in our Sunday night update. Nothing in the two polls released on Monday in the Virginia gubernatorial race did anything to disrupt the conventional wisdom that Virginia will continue its streak of electing governors from the party not represented in the White House. If anything, both the PPP and Survey USA survey's provided additional proof that today's vote would be an overwhelming victory for Republican Bob McDonnell. More than anything, though, with the final polls in, we can assess the situation and, in this race at least, go out on a limb and make a prediction. That the state of Virginia in the graphic above is now completely red should be indicative enough of the fact that the evidence is pointing toward a McDonnell victory tonight. But now it is official.

2009 Virginia Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Deeds	McDonnell	Undecided
Public Policy Polling [pdf]	Oct. 31-Nov. 1, 2009	+/- 2.6%	1457 likely voters	42	56	2
Survey USA	Oct. 30-Nov. 1, 2009	+/- 4.1%	502 likely voters	40	58	2

Early on, the exit polls are showing the turnout is lower than expected in some Republican areas. The Democrats are touting those numbers, but it will take an awful lot of that to get Deeds anywhere close to winning this race. And lest everyone --Democrats specifically -- forget, the early 2004 presidential exit polls indicated that the United States would have a new president, President Kerry. Alas, it didn't quite turn out that way, if memory serves. As Markos Moulitsas just tweeted, "WTF, there are exit polls today? Big question -- which side will get punk'd by them?" Indeed. It would not be wise of Deeds supporters to put too much stock into them; not these early ones at least.

Prediction: McDonnell wins.

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State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (11/2/09)

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (11/1/09)

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Is anyone even paying attention to this race anymore after what's happened in the special election race in New York's 23rd congressional district? Nah, I didn't think so. However, the two polls that were released today in the Virginia gubernatorial race confirmed what was already known about the contest: Republican Bob McDonnell is heading for a decent sized victory on Tuesday night.

FHQ, in its post-mortems of the 2008 election, discussed the idea that Obama could have ceded about nine points across the board and still would have won in enough states to clear the 270 electoral vote barrier. Virginia was among the states that would have swung over to the red column had that been reality. Sure, we're talking about an off-year election with lower-than-usual turnout, but the swing from a year ago to now in Virginia has been fairly remarkable. Democrats just never got on board with Creigh Deeds and were not as enthusiastic about this election cycle in the Old Dominion as their partisans across the aisle. Would anyone else have made a difference or was McDonnell just destined to become Virginia's next governor (as the occupant of the White House has dictated for the last three plus decades -- Republican in the White House/Democratic Virginia governor and vice versa)?

We political scientists like to attempt to determine whether a campaign has mattered. It is always easiest to see at when a contest is close, but in runaway elections, campaign effects are harder to come by. Yes, they matter, but often only at the margins. We certainly saw that in this race during McDonnell's thesis fallout. Things tightened for a few weeks but there was a decided regression to the mean after that point. It wasn't unlike a kind of convention bounce. And Deeds got two bounces throughout this process: 1) the thesis and 2) his primary victory in June. Other than those two times, McDonnell was in the driver's seat in this race.

2009 Virginia Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Deeds	McDonnell	Undecided
YouGov/Pollimetrix [pdf]	Oct. 27-30, 2009	+/- 4.5%	742 likely voters	40	53	7
Mason-Dixon	Oct. 28-29, 2009	+/- 4%	625 likely voters	41	53	6

Where does that leave us now? Again, it doesn't leave very far away from where we were a day ago. McDonnell has opened up a double digit lead not only in the most recent polls, but in FHQ's averages as well. And no, he's not looking back. The only real question for Virginia on Tuesday is how much Deeds' performance at the top of the ticket is going to affect the down-ballot races. The Senate is not up for grabs this year in Virginia, so the Democrats will maintain their slim advantage in the chamber. However, the rest of the governing apparatus in the Old Dominion is likely to be controlled by the Republican Party. And that leaves this interesting divide between Virginia at the state level and Virginia at the national level (gave Obama its 13 electoral votes a year ago and elected two Democrats to the Senate over the last two cycles).

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State of the Race: Virginia Governor (10/31/09)

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FHQ is a day late on the updates in New Jersey and Virginia, but it was all for a good cause. Of course, we wanted to do our yearly homage to Halloween, and what better way to do that than in the context of the gubernatorial races in the Garden state and the Old Dominion. [I still like last year's celebratory Halloween post better.]

The news in Virginia didn't change all that much on Friday. In fact, it didn't change at all. The Daily Kos/Research 2000 numbers were leaked on Thursday, and according to the time stamp, we're up on Thursday as well (at some point), but when FHQ went to (virtual) press, they had yet to be posted. No, that isn't a huge deal, but we cannot incorporate a new poll in to our averages until the time frame in which the poll was conducted has been determined. Without that the poll cannot be properly weighted. Regardless, the underlying message was still the same. Despite the fact that Creigh Deeds topped the 43% mark (for just the third time in all of October), Republican Bob McDonnell still led, and led by double digits. Deeds did have an over two to one advantage over McDonnell in Northern Virginia and narrowly edged the former attorney general among women, but those figures were easily offset by how well McDonnell is doing in this poll in the rest of the state (outside Northern Virginia -- a nearly two to one lead) and among men (a three to two advantage).

2009 Virginia Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Deeds	McDonnell	Undecided
Daily Kos/Research 2000	Oct. 26-28, 2009	+/- 4%	600 likely voters	44	54	2

The one stat that continues to give McDonnell much of his cushion is how well the Republican is doing among independents in the Old Dominion. That effect is muted in the Kos survey results compared to other recent polls, but is still high enough for McDonnell to maintain a healthy lead over his Democratic opponent (18 points).

What does that mean for this race? Not much. Well, it doesn't mean anything more than we already knew. Bob McDonnell holds a decided and comfortable margin over Deeds heading into Tuesday's election, and it would take a significant upswing in Deeds' likely turnout numbers and a severe bout of complacency among McDonnell supporters for this one to be anything but a McDonnell win. The true test in this race won't likely be when the race is called so much as how quickly.

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State of the Race: Virginia Governor (10/29/09)

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The race for governor in Virginia is a lot like Michigan in last year's presidential race after the McCain campaign decided to cut their losses and spend their time and money in other states: It isn't any fun when it isn't competitive. Sure, there was some hope that we'd be treated to a close race when the thesis news broke and sunk in about a week or so later. That, though, came a bit too early for Deeds and ended up being a false front anyway. The thesis contributed to this to some degree in that it sidetracked the Deeds campaign for a while, but they never developed a tight message around and/or beyond that one thing to sustain them. So when the thesis effect wore off, Deeds didn't have anything to fall back on. Such is life on the campaign trail.

2009 Virginia Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Deeds	McDonnell	Undecided
Roanoke College	Oct. 21-27, 2009	+/- 4.1%	569 likely voters	39	55	6

Despite the fact that we know there is a Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll floating around out there, FHQ cannot incorporate it into the averages in this race without the full information of the poll. Mainly, without the date the poll was conducted, we can't construct the weight that would be applied to it. When that information is made available we will update the averages accordingly.

In that poll's absence, however, there was but one survey released today. Roanoke College, like many other recent polls, found Bob McDonnell topping the 55% mark; the fourth poll of the last five to have him at or above that level (And the fifth found him at 54%.). While McDonnell is heading up, Deeds is heading down. Well, his decrease doesn't appear to be at as high a rate as McDonnell's increase, so it basically looks as if the Democrat is leveling out and shifting downward slightly. Again, that really isn't a position you want to be in during the final week of the race.

Adding in this one poll shifts McDonnell up to 51.4%, a new high water mark for the former attorney general of the Commonwealth, but also moves Deeds down below 41% for the first time since FHQ began examining this race. Where does that leave us? Well, the state of this race is red and not competitive.

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FHQ is going to go with a Twitter-like, quickie post of the events of the day in both Virginia and New Jersey.

If the worst thing that can be said about your campaign is that complacency may set in, you're in pretty good shape. --Giuliani on McDonnell

That pretty much sums it up in Virginia. The day after Obama rallied with Deeds, the talk from the Republicans concerned complacency. Ouch!

2009 Virginia Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Deeds	McDonnell	Undecided
Rasmussen	Oct. 27, 2009	+/- 3%	1000 likely voters	41	54	4
Virginia Commonwealth [pdf]	Oct. 21-25, 2009	+/- 4.9%	625 likely voters	33	51	15

VCU's poll is its first in the race. The undecideds are higher than would be expected, but McDonnell's total seems about right.

That 33% for Deeds is off, but it wasn't the most recent poll and didn't affect the averages that much.

This Rasmussen poll is akin to the PPP survey a day ago. This one's gone from "feeling" like a 52-45 race recently to a 55-44 race now.

FHQ's averages didn't shift that much. McDonnell held steady and Deeds shifted downward slightly. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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State of the Race: Virginia Governor (10/27/09)

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Another day brought another couple of polls in the Virginia governors race showing Bob McDonnell pulling away from Creigh Deeds. It was not the kind of day Deeds otherwise would have wanted considering that the president was coming in to campaign with the Democrat. The McDonnell campaign has to feel good knowing that even despite Obama's appearance in the Old Dominion, much of the talk surrounding the day's polls centered on comments like, "It basically seems like Democratic voters in Va. are giving up on this election." That's never a good sign coming from a pollster.

2009 Virginia Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Deeds	McDonnell	Undecided
Survey USA	Oct. 25-26, 2009	+/- 4.4%	502 likely voters	41	58	1
Public Policy Polling [pdf]	Oct. 23-26, 2009	+/- 3.6%	729 likely voters	40	55	5

Yet, such was the dichotomy of the day in Virginia. Bob McDonnell didn't gain that much in either the Survey USA poll or the Public Policy Polling survey, but Deeds didn't either. Well, in spite of the talk about landslides surrounding the Survey USA result, Deeds did actually fare better in this week's Survey USA poll versus last week's. But that's a small consolation to the Democrat. Meanwhile, in FHQ's averages, McDonnell has stretch his lead into the double digits; something that seemed to be on the verge of happening these last couple of weeks, but had yet to come to fruition.

With one week to go, that's pretty much all she wrote in Virginia. When candidates turn off the flow of money for buying ad time, it is a pretty good indication.

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State of the Race: Virginia Governor (10/26/09)

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (10/26/09)

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Today continued a string of poor days for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds. It was a day that not only saw his opponent's campaign, Republican Bob McDonnell, hand over $25,000 to the Republican running for attorney general in the state, but also saw a continuation of the back and forth between national Democrats and the Deeds campaign over President Obama's involvement in the race. And if that wasn't enough, the Washington Post late in the day released another poll in the race showing basically no change in a 53-44 lead McDonnell held over the Democrat two and a half weeks ago. And it doesn't look like tomorrow's news is going to be any brighter for Deeds.

2009 Virginia Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Deeds	McDonnell	Undecided
Washington Post	Oct. 22-25, 2009	+/- 3%	1206 likely voters	44	55	1

What the news, well the numbers behind the news at least, mean is that McDonnell is looking like a pretty good bet in next Tuesday's vote. And that's a good pick up for the Republicans given how Virginia has trended at the national level in the last two cycles (two Democratic senators in 2006 and 2008 and 13 electoral votes for Obama last year). Given that it looks like Democratic turnout is going to be low, it seems a near certainty that Republicans will make gains in the other down-ballot races as well. That's especially significant in the year ahead of the Census and a potential redraw of the districts in the Commonwealth. The Democrats narrow lead in the Virginia Senate seems vulnerable and that would mean complete Republican control of the redistricting apparatus in the Old Dominion.

That won't have direct implications for next year (Democratic turnout could be down again, though.), but in 2012? Well, that's a different story.

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Meanwhile, in FHQ's averages in this race, Bob McDonnell is approaching a double digit lead, and it doesn't appear as if he's going to look back.


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State of the Race: Virginia Governor (10/21/09)

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Well, this felt like a slow day on the polling front in Virginia and New Jersey. After a bevy of polls a day ago, there was but one poll released today. [I'm still trying to figure out how I processed all those polls a year ago in the presidential race. Five polls was nothing; especially this late in the race.] And Public Policy Polling's peek into the state of the race in Virginia wasn't like any of the polls a day ago. It seemed to settle in between the optimistic Survey USA poll (Well, optimistic if you're Bob McDonnell.) and the, in FHQ's estimation, more accurate Clarus Research Group survey. At 52-40, favoring McDonnell, though, it looked just as bad to the Deeds campaign. At this point, anything over double digits is a big hit to the Democratic state senator. And when the likely electorate is only 33% Democratic and 16% African American, it just isn't going to turn out well for the Democrat. It is no wonder, then, that when Obama visits, he's hitting the Hampton Roads area instead of Northern Virginia; the black vote is the target.

2009 Virginia Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Deeds	McDonnell	Undecided
Public Policy Polling [pdf]	Oct. 17-19, 2009	+/- 3.8%	666 likely voters	40	52	7

In any event, McDonnell is ahead and lengthening his lead over Creigh Deeds on top of that. The lone card left for Deeds to play is the Obama card because enthusiasm among commonwealth Democrats is what is killing Deeds. As Tom Jensen said today, the electorate has gone from +6 Obama a year ago to +6 McCain today. That's a significant shift in a year and one that even an Obama visit to the Old Dominion can't reverse.

Currently, FHQ has the race at just under ten points, but it is only a matter of time before that tops that threshold.

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And one more thing, while we're on the subject of Virginia: The Virginia Voter Information Project has revamped its web site with the help of Pew, Google and the New Organizing Institute and added some nice features. Below is a Google Gadget to locate where it is that you can vote.

...if you're Virginian.

Hat tip to Paul Gronke at Election Updates for the link.





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The debates are over and all that's left are the final two weeks of the campaign in the Virginia gubernatorial race. And despite the fact that the polling in the race released in the last 24 hours has been all over the place, little has changed. Republican Bob McDonnell is still very much in control. It isn't a commanding lead -- well, unless you count the Survey USA poll -- but it is a comfortable, nearly double digit lead currently. Just like the debate tonight, then, there really is no shake up represented in these polls. Actually what we have are three polls: one high, one low and one in the middle. For my money, I'll take that Clarus Research Group poll out of the three. It is nestled in between two outliers and ends up being quite close to where FHQ has the race at the moment and where most of the recent polling has found the race.

2009 Virginia Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Deeds	McDonnell	Undecided
Survey USA	Oct. 17-19, 2009	+/- 4%	595 likely voters	40	59	1
Clarus Research Group [pdf]	Oct. 18-19, 2009	+/- 4%	575 likely voters	41	49	10
Christopher Newport University	Oct. 8-13, 2009	+/- 4%	506 likely voters	30.9	44.7	21.9

Is it all over in the Old Dominion? Well, Deeds missed his best opportunity to shift the narrative of the race at this evening's debate and I'm hard-pressed to conjure up a scenario where the state senator pulls an election win out. We reached this point in the presidential campaign a year ago too. The talk shifted from who will win to how much Obama would win by. FHQ is of the opinion that we have reached that point in this race. And who are we to go against the trend in Virginia anyway? A Democrat is in the White House, so that means a Republican will win the race for governor in Virginia.

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FHQ would be remiss if it didn't at least mention the Christopher Newport University poll. That 21.9% undecideds is an astronomical figure for this late in the race. However, it is their first poll in the race and they did call the Obama-McCain margin correctly in their poll a few weeks prior to the election a year ago (election results vs. poll results). Still, that's a lot of people who are undecided in a race that has stabilized recently. It make for a nice peak on the purple line on the figure above though.


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Another day brought another upper single digits lead for Republican Bob McDonnell in the Virginia gubernatorial race. Even though, the survey from Rasmussen preceded last night's debate in Richmond, the status quo result combined with the fact that the debate didn't shift the narrative of the race noticeably to make it seem like another typical day in the late stages of this race. And with that debate out of the way, that's one more opportunity lost for Deeds to put a positive spin on his campaign after the longstanding negative attacks on McDonnell for his past writings wore thin with likely voters in recent polls.

2009 Virginia Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Deeds	McDonnell	Undecided
Rasmussen	Oct. 12, 2009	+/- 4%	500 likely voters	43	50	6

With the opportunity lost, however, things are very much stuck in a rut in this race. McDonnell is ahead and has been better than 50% in most of the recent polls. The Republican is exactly on that mark in FHQ's averages of the race, with Deeds still struggling to break the 43% here for the first time since July. If this one's going to get close down the stretch, Deeds is going to have to happen on a magic formula and/or find some other controversial McDonnell writings (even then that latter narrative is likely dead). With the enthusiasm gap working against the Democrat in this race, as evidenced by the low projected African American turnout, it just looks as if the tried and true Virginia gubernatorial election trend will continue: Democratic president, Republican wins the governors race (or as we saw four and eight years ago, Republican president, Democrat wins the governors race).

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It's too bad Public Policy Polling conducted a poll in New Jersey over the weekend. I'm sure those results will be interesting (They are bound to find their way onto FHQ somehow.), but PPP was the last polling outfit to show the Virginia race any closer than eight points -- where the new Mason Dixon poll finds the contest between Bob McDonnell and Creigh Deeds in the Old Dominion. It would be nice to see the before and after because most of the other polling firms weighing in since have shown a widening gap between the two major party candidates in Virginia.

2009 Virginia Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Deeds	McDonnell	Undecided
Mason Dixon	Oct. 6-8, 2009	+/- 4%	625 likely voters	4o	48	12

FHQ doesn't have any problem with the 8-9 point spreads; that's around where we have the race pegged at this point. It just feels like a 52-45 or 53-44 sort of win for McDonnell at this point. [And yes, that feeling is filtered through the polling data we have at the moment. It isn't a totally subjective ruling.] And with three weeks left, Deeds has to find a way to shift the narrative in a way that will help him. Again, the thesis narrative seems to have run its course. The media has moved on. The onus, then, is on the Democrat to alter the race in some way, shape or form. That may start with tonight's debate in Richmond, but even then, Deeds will have to overcome quiet a deficit and the difficult balance between local forces and national factors that have stoked Republican enthusiasm in the state.

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September surprises.

No, they just don't seem to work, at least not from the Deeds campaign's perspective. Bob McDonnell's thesis seemed to have made a dent in the summer margin between the Republican and his Democratic opponent during the latter half of September, but first Rasmussen and now the Washington Post have shown McDonnell stretching what was a shrinking lead a month ago back to around the ten point mark. [We'll set Survey USA to the side for the moment as the firm has consistently shown a much broader McDonnell advantage without terribly much fluctuation. FHQ isn't attacking the methodology just the fact that, unlike the two polls cited above, there really has not been that much change to speak of in the series of Survey USA polls out in this race since the June primary.]

2009 Virginia Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Deeds	McDonnell	Undecided
Washington Post	Oct. 4-7, 2009	+/- 3%	1001 likely voters	44	53	2

So while things may be looking down for Republicans further north in New Jersey, they have trended upward in the Old Dominion. Now mind you, Deeds has been creeping up in FHQ's averages through the last four polls, but that quartet of surveys has also seen McDonnell crest above the 50% barrier and pushed the Republican above that point here at FHQ. Deeds is currently at his highest point in our averages since early July, but he is being outpaced by his opponent at this point and McDonnell is in the drivers seat with just 26 days left until November 3.

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One week further down the gubernatorial campaign trail in the Old Dominion and the picture looks the same.

...at least from Survey USA. The polling firm continues to show a double digit lead for Bob McDonnell. However, this is the closest the race has been in the series of polls Survey USA has done in the Virginia gubernatorial race since the two polls immediately prior to the June 9 Democratic primary (leads of one point and four points for McDonnell, respectively). But minimally closing the gap yet remaining over ten points back is a small consolation to the Deeds campaign as the contest enters the final four weeks. FHQ is still of a mind that these polls are on the McDonnell-heavy side. The likely voter model Survey USA has been using has yielded more Republicans than Democrats -- as has Rasmussen -- yet Rasmussen has found a tighter race. Well, slightly tighter anyway.

2009 Virginia Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Deeds	McDonnell	Undecided
Survey USA	Oct. 2-4, 2009	+/- 4%	608 likely voters	43	54	4

Now, FHQ is not saying that this race is closer it appears; Survey USA just appears to be an outlier. Does that put McDonnell in the driver's seat? This poll certainly isn't hurting the Republican's averages here. He's topped the 50% mark for the first time since the early September Survey USA poll pushed him beyond that point. But that was quickly followed by the seemingly thesis-triggered contraction of the margin between the two major party candidates. For Deeds that September surprise may have come a month too early.

There's still might be time enough for a comeback, but as Tom Jensen at Public Policy Polling tweeted today:

"Very few minds are being changed in Virginia. Deeds will need remarkable Dem turnout: http://tinyurl.com/ybs2rml"

I think that sums it up.

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FHQ typically eschews an out of context glance at one single poll, all by its lonesome. Taken in context, though, single polls can be of use. Take for example the polling numbers released this week in the Virginia governors race. On Tuesday, we got some fairly divergent numbers from Public Policy Polling and Survey USA. The former showed a tighter race, while the latter broke with the trend established across other recent polls, showing a significant berth between Bob McDonnell and Creigh Deeds. If you average the two polls (without any kind of weighting), you end up with a 51.5-42 McDonnell edge. That outcome was echoed in the Rasmussen poll released on Wednesday.

2009 Virginia Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Deeds	McDonnell	Undecided
Rasmussen	Sept. 29, 2009	+/- 4.5%	500 likely voters	42	51	7

Is that where this race stands? Possibly, but by FHQ's measure that overestimates McDonnell's position in the race but is consistent on Deeds. The underlying dynamic in this race is based on who undecideds side with (whether it will break toward one candidate or be split fairly evenly) and how well each side is able to turnout its voters. McDonnell has been mostly stable over the last few weeks in FHQ's averages and comfortably ahead of his Democratic rival. The Republican has been in the 48-49% range while most of the movement has been with Deeds. That continues to be the story. With less than five weeks left in the campaign, Deeds is faced with having to swing those undecideds and independents (something with which the thesis matter seemed to be helping) and energize his base of voters.

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Which is it?

Deeds continues to close in...

or

News 7/Survey USA poll shows frontrunners in November elections

That is the question with two new and divergent polls out today in the Virginia governors race. FHQ is of the opinion that it doesn't have to be an either or proposition. Let's look at the facts:

1) Obviously the PPP poll is more in line with recent polling showing a tighter race. McDonnell is still ahead and is right below the 50% mark.

2) The Survey USA poll, then, appears to be an outlier, but in actuality is fairly closely aligned with the other polls the firm has done on this race since July. The poll at the beginning of September showed a 54-42 McDonnell lead and this current poll matches the former state attorney general's high water polling mark from a Survey USA poll in July. That July poll was also the first poll to show McDonnell breaking away from Deeds following the Democrat's primary victory in early June. That trend survived until about a week into September.

But is it an outlier or not?

2009 Virginia Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Deeds	McDonnell	Undecided
Survey USA	Sept. 26-28, 2009	+/- 4%	631 likely voters	41	55	4
Public Policy Polling [pdf]	Sept. 25-28, 2009	+/- 4.1%	576 likely voters	43	48	9

One really has to look no further than the three areas the Republican Governors Association pointed to this morning to see:

1) The number of Ds to Rs.
2) The spread among women.
3) The spread among independents.

Let's look at the numbers:

In the PPP poll:
1) The sample was 37% Democrats and 29% Republicans.
2) Deeds led by 8 points among women.
3) The Democratic state senator trailed McDonnell by 16 among independents (but that was down from 29 points with the same group a month ago.).

In the Survey USA poll:
1) The sample was 37% Republican and 32% Democratic.
2) McDonnell led by 10 points with women.
3) McDonnell also led by 24 points with independents.

On its face, the Democrat-to-Republican ratio likely explains much of the difference between the two polls. But the numbers among women in the Survey USA poll don't jibe with what has been witnessed in some of the other recent polls showing Deeds making strides among the group. The gap has been relatively small by gender gap standards, but Deeds has seemingly pulled ahead. That divergence doesn't hold with the Survey USA independent numbers. The Insider Advantage polls from late last week showed a similar (+20 point) advantage for McDonnell and, indeed, the previous PPP poll showed a McDonnell edge greater than that.

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Which is it then? Well, the PPP is more in line with recent polling while the internals from Survey USA are not (though they paint a consistent picture throughout the firm's polling in the race). The fact is, the thesis seems to have had some impact, but is hardly costing McDonnell the race. The Republican is still hovering around 50% in FHQ's averages of the race and Deeds is further back hoping the undecideds in the race break for him in the end.


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