This is part twenty-eight of a series of posts that will examine the Republican delegate allocation rules by state. The main goal of this exercise is to assess the rules for 2016 -- especially relative to 2012 -- in order to gauge the potential impact the changes to the rules along the winner-take-all/proportionality spectrum may have on the race for the Republican nomination. For this cycle the RNC recalibrated its rules, cutting the proportionality window in half (March 1-14), but tightening its definition of proportionality as well. While those alterations will trigger subtle changes in reaction at the state level, other rules changes -- particularly the new binding requirement placed on state parties -- will be more noticeable.
WASHINGTON, DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
Election type: convention
Date: March 12
Number of delegates: 19 [16 at-large, 3 automatic]
Allocation method: proportional (with majority winner-take-all trigger)
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15% (districtwide)
2012: winner-take-all primary
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Changes since 2012
Quite a bit has changed with the way Republicans in the District of Columbia will allocate delegates in 2016 as compared to 2012. First, the District government shifted back the primary from April to June. The second Tuesday in June on which the primary falls in 2016 is outside of the window in which nominating contests can occur under Republican National Committee rules.
Faced with sanctions from the national party, DC Republicans opted out of the June primary election, replacing it with an earlier convention to select, allocate and bind delegates to the national convention. Curiously, the party scheduled that convention just inside the proportionality window on the tail end. That normally is of little consequence, but in this case it meant the DCGOP giving up its traditional winner-take-all method of delegate allocation. Instead of the party allocating all 19 delegates to the winner of the primary as in the past, in 2016, those delegates will be proportionally allocated. That cuts into the already small power and influence of the delegation. 19 delegates bound as a bloc is more beneficial to a candidate and the party is more meaningful than a proportional split of those 19 delegates.
Thresholds
To qualify for a proportional share of those 19 delegates, under DCGOP rules, a candidate must first win at least 15 percent in the presidential preference vote at the district convention. Should no candidate reach the 15 percent barrier, then the threshold is lowered to ten percent. There is an additional contingency in place if no candidate reaches ten percent -- dropping the threshold to eight percent -- but with a winnowed field, it seems likely that those alternate thresholds are little more than insurance.
Additionally, there is nothing in the rules of the Washington, DC Republican Party delegate selection plan prohibiting a backdoor winner-take-all outcome if only one candidate surpasses whatever defined threshold above is being used. Yet, a winnowed field makes it less likely that any candidate will take a backdoor to all 19 delegates.
And while the timing of the convention forced the party to abandon its past winner-take-all allocation method, such an option -- some candidate winning all 19 delegates -- is still on the table, but only if a candidate wins a majority of the vote districtwide. As the field of candidates shrinks, the odds of only one candidate reaching the 15 percent threshold decreases, but the chances of the winner-take-all trigger being tripped increase.
Delegate allocation (at-large and automatic delegates)
The allocation calculation the Republican Party is using in the district divides the candidate share of the vote by the total qualifying vote; just those over 15 percent (or whatever threshold is being used). The smaller the field is, the less likely it is that any candidate will receive anything more than a proportional share of the 19 delegates. But if any candidate or candidates fall(s) below that threshold, the delegate share for the qualifying candidates increases beyond a simple proportional share. All that really means is that as the unqualified share of the vote increases, the share of the delegates allocated to those above the threshold increases as well.
Candidates have to win at least 15 percent of the vote to qualify. One cannot round up to that threshold from 14.8 percent, for example.
Fractional delegates are rounded to the nearest whole number. If the allocation results in an overallocation of delegates, then the superfluous delegate is removed from the total of the candidate furthest from the rounding threshold. In the event of an under-allocation, an extra delegate -- one to get the total to 19 delegates allocated -- is awarded to the candidate closest to the round threshold. Compared to other states, these rounding rules do not by default favor those at the top of the vote order in the preference vote.
Binding
The binding rules hold delegates in place -- bound to a particular candidate -- through the first ballot at the national convention. There are only a couple of exceptions to that rule. For starters, when candidates withdraw from the race, any delegates allocated to that candidate are released and immediately unbound for the convention. However, if only one candidate's name is placed in nomination at the national convention, then the DC delegates are bound to vote as a bloc for that candidate.
Delegates will not only be allocated and bound at the March 12 convention, but they will be selected as well. In a vote similar to the one called for in the Virgin Islands rules, the top 16 votegetters become national convention delegates and the next 16 in the order are the alternates. Candidates for delegate file to run on their own, but can accept the endorsement the candidates and their campaigns along the way. The delegate candidate either affirms that endorsement or does not. In the case of the former, the delegate is listed on the convention ballot with the candidate they are supporting listed with the delegate.
Even if an endorsement is not accepted by the delegate candidate or is not made in the first place, a delegate still has to sign an affidavit that he or she will support the candidate to whom they are bound by the results of the convention. The endorsement part of that would tend to help the candidates to handpick delegates or at the very least indirectly influence who their delegates are. But in the end, the delegates would have accept the endorsement and be elected in the delegate preference vote. That means that there could emerge from the DCGOP convention delegates who prefer another candidate, but are bound to another.
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State allocation rules are archived here.
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Showing posts with label GOP state convention. Show all posts
Showing posts with label GOP state convention. Show all posts
Saturday, March 12, 2016
Tuesday, May 15, 2012
2012 Republican Delegate Allocation: Nebraska
This is the thirty-seventh in a multipart series of posts that will examine the Republican delegate allocation by state.1 The main goal of this exercise is to assess the rules for 2012 -- especially relative to 2008 -- in order to gauge the impact the changes to the rules along the winner-take-all/proportionality spectrum may have on the race for the Republican nomination. As FHQ has argued in the past, this has often been cast as a black and white change. That the RNC has winner-take-all rules and the Democrats have proportional rules. Beyond that, the changes have been wrongly interpreted in a great many cases as having made a 180ยบ change from straight winner-take-all to straight proportional rules in all pre-April 1 primary and caucus states. That is not the case.
The new requirement has been adopted in a number of different ways across the states. Some have moved to a conditional system where winner-take-all allocation is dependent upon one candidate receiving 50% or more of the vote and others have responded by making just the usually small sliver of a state's delegate apportionment from the national party -- at-large delegates -- proportional as mandated by the party. Those are just two examples. There are other variations in between that also allow state parties to comply with the rules. FHQ has long argued that the effect of this change would be to lengthen the process. However, the extent of the changes from four years ago is not as great as has been interpreted and points to the spacing of the 2012 primary calendar -- and how that interacts with the ongoing campaign -- being a much larger factor in the accumulation of delegates (Again, especially relative to the 2008 calendar).
For links to the other states' plans see the Republican Delegate Selection Plans by State section in the left sidebar under the calendar.
NEBRASKA
As if it wasn't bad enough that the Nebraska presidential primary is non-binding, now everyone other than Mitt Romney has stopped contesting the nomination in the remaining primary and caucus states yet to have voted. That makes the primary in the Cornhusker state even less consequential. It has been a while since the presidential nomination campaign saw its last non-binding contest with delegates not also directly on the same ballot. One has to go back to the North Dakota caucuses on Super Tuesday for the last non-binding contest. And typically that is the mark of the caucus state: an early start allows for the caucus/convention process to have culminated with national convention delegate selection in a timely enough manner prior to the start of the national convention. Nebraska is atypical in that regard. The process there begins with a May beauty contest presidential preference primary that has no role in the selection of delegates, continues with early June (June 1-10) county conventions where delegates are chosen to attend the July 14 state convention. It is from the pool of county convention delegates at the state convention that the at-large and congressional district delegates are chosen to go to, in this case, Tampa.
In other words, there is a reason that most are following the Nebraska senate nomination races as opposed to the presidential primary. Well, actually there are few reasons.
Nebraska delegate breakdown:
Again, don't look to the primary as to how the delegates in Nebraska will be allocated. The state convention is where all the delegate action will happen. In terms of the at-large delegates, Article VII, Section 3.b,d of the Nebraska Republican Party constitution covers the selection of at-large delegates.2 Delegate candidates file with the party no more than ten business days following the primary and are selected at the state convention. State law binds delegate candidates to the presidential candidate to whom they are aligned as indicated on the filing form. [Filing as an uncommitted delegate candidate is also an option.] This is a soft binding mechanism as delegates selected to attend the national convention are to use their "best efforts" to support the candidate to whom they have pledged. "Best efforts" is undefined in the statute and there is no specified penalty for not observing the intent of the pledge on the filing form.
Congressional district allocation:
Nebraska state law calls for district conventions to be held for the purposes of selecting congressional district delegates -- among other business -- "immediately after the adjournment of the state postprimary convention". That will take place on July 14. Article VII, Section 3.c further defines the procedure, calling for the district delegate candidates, like the at-large candidates, to file no later than 10 business days after May primary.
Automatic delegate allocation:
Though the national committeeman and committeewoman are elected at the state convention in presidential years (Article IV, Section 1), neither assumes office until after the national convention in the same year. Nebraska Republican Party state chairmen are elected in odd years (Article IX, Section 4). All three automatic delegates from Nebraska are in place then and will not change hands prior to the Tampa convention. All three are unbound and free to endorse or vote for any Republican presidential nomination candidate of their preference.
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1 FHQ would say 50 part, but that doesn't count the territories and Washington, DC.
2 Relevant sections of the Nebraska Republican Party constitution related to delegate selection:
Article IV
Representatives on Republican National Committee
Section 1. In each year when a President of the United States is to be elected, the State Convention shall elect a National Committeeman and a National Committeewoman to take office at the close of the succeeding National Convention. The State Chairman shall certify the names of the National Committeeman and National Committeewoman so elected to the National Committee.
Article VII
Post-Primary Conventions
Section 3. National Convention Delegates
(a) In each Presidential election year, delegates and alternates to the Republican National Convention shall be elected in the manner specified in this Section 3, as authorized by the Rules of the National Convention.
(b) All National Convention delegates designated by the Rules of the National Convention as at-large delegates shall be elected at-large by the State Convention. All National Convention alternate delegates designated as at-large alternates shall be elected at-large by the State Convention following the election of at-large National Convention delegates.
(c) All National Convention delegates and alternates designated by the Rules of the National Convention as district delegates or district alternates, respectively, shall be elected by the caucus of delegates of that U.S. House of Representatives district at the State Convention in accordance with the Congressional district boundaries delineated under Nebraska State law. Candidates for National Convention District delegate and District alternate delegate shall file for election in person or by mailing a notice of intent to the State Headquarters postmarked no later than the 10th business day after the state primary election. Only persons elected and credentialed as delegates or alternates to the State Convention shall be qualified to be elected at the State Convention as District National Convention delegates or alternates.
(d) At-large candidates for National Convention delegate and alternate delegate shall file for election in person or by mailing a notice of intent to the State Headquarters postmarked no later than the 10th business day after the state primary election. Only persons elected and credentialed as delegates or alternates to the State Convention shall be qualified to be elected at the State Convention as at-large National Convention delegates or alternates.
(e) All candidates for delegate and alternate at the State Convention shall designate the presidential candidate to whom they are committed or state that they are uncommitted, and shall be bound by such commitment if elected, all in accordance with Nebraska State Law. Delegate and alternate candidates shall indicate their commitments by mailing a notice to State Headquarters, postmarked no later than five business days prior to the date registration for the State Convention commences.
Article IX
State Party Administration
Section 4. ELECTION AND TERMS OF OFFICE. The Chairman and Treasurer shall be elected by the State Central Committee at a meeting held no later than May 1 of each odd-numbered year. The Vice Chairman, the Assistant Chairmen, the Secretary, the General Counsel and the Finance Chairman shall be appointed by the State Chairman with the approval of the Executive Committee as soon as practicable after the election of the State Chairman and shall take office immediately, subject to the approval of their appointments by the State Central Committee at its next meeting. The term of office of the State Officers and members of the State Central Committee shall be approximately two years. They shall serve until their successors have been elected.
Recent Posts:
2012 Republican Delegate Allocation: West Virginia
2012 Republican Delegate Allocation: North Carolina
2012 Republican Delegate Allocation: Indiana
Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.
The new requirement has been adopted in a number of different ways across the states. Some have moved to a conditional system where winner-take-all allocation is dependent upon one candidate receiving 50% or more of the vote and others have responded by making just the usually small sliver of a state's delegate apportionment from the national party -- at-large delegates -- proportional as mandated by the party. Those are just two examples. There are other variations in between that also allow state parties to comply with the rules. FHQ has long argued that the effect of this change would be to lengthen the process. However, the extent of the changes from four years ago is not as great as has been interpreted and points to the spacing of the 2012 primary calendar -- and how that interacts with the ongoing campaign -- being a much larger factor in the accumulation of delegates (Again, especially relative to the 2008 calendar).
For links to the other states' plans see the Republican Delegate Selection Plans by State section in the left sidebar under the calendar.
NEBRASKA
As if it wasn't bad enough that the Nebraska presidential primary is non-binding, now everyone other than Mitt Romney has stopped contesting the nomination in the remaining primary and caucus states yet to have voted. That makes the primary in the Cornhusker state even less consequential. It has been a while since the presidential nomination campaign saw its last non-binding contest with delegates not also directly on the same ballot. One has to go back to the North Dakota caucuses on Super Tuesday for the last non-binding contest. And typically that is the mark of the caucus state: an early start allows for the caucus/convention process to have culminated with national convention delegate selection in a timely enough manner prior to the start of the national convention. Nebraska is atypical in that regard. The process there begins with a May beauty contest presidential preference primary that has no role in the selection of delegates, continues with early June (June 1-10) county conventions where delegates are chosen to attend the July 14 state convention. It is from the pool of county convention delegates at the state convention that the at-large and congressional district delegates are chosen to go to, in this case, Tampa.
In other words, there is a reason that most are following the Nebraska senate nomination races as opposed to the presidential primary. Well, actually there are few reasons.
Nebraska delegate breakdown:
- 35 total delegates
- 23 at-large delegates
- 9 congressional district delegates
- 3 automatic delegates
Again, don't look to the primary as to how the delegates in Nebraska will be allocated. The state convention is where all the delegate action will happen. In terms of the at-large delegates, Article VII, Section 3.b,d of the Nebraska Republican Party constitution covers the selection of at-large delegates.2 Delegate candidates file with the party no more than ten business days following the primary and are selected at the state convention. State law binds delegate candidates to the presidential candidate to whom they are aligned as indicated on the filing form. [Filing as an uncommitted delegate candidate is also an option.] This is a soft binding mechanism as delegates selected to attend the national convention are to use their "best efforts" to support the candidate to whom they have pledged. "Best efforts" is undefined in the statute and there is no specified penalty for not observing the intent of the pledge on the filing form.
Congressional district allocation:
Nebraska state law calls for district conventions to be held for the purposes of selecting congressional district delegates -- among other business -- "immediately after the adjournment of the state postprimary convention". That will take place on July 14. Article VII, Section 3.c further defines the procedure, calling for the district delegate candidates, like the at-large candidates, to file no later than 10 business days after May primary.
Automatic delegate allocation:
Though the national committeeman and committeewoman are elected at the state convention in presidential years (Article IV, Section 1), neither assumes office until after the national convention in the same year. Nebraska Republican Party state chairmen are elected in odd years (Article IX, Section 4). All three automatic delegates from Nebraska are in place then and will not change hands prior to the Tampa convention. All three are unbound and free to endorse or vote for any Republican presidential nomination candidate of their preference.
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1 FHQ would say 50 part, but that doesn't count the territories and Washington, DC.
2 Relevant sections of the Nebraska Republican Party constitution related to delegate selection:
Article IV
Representatives on Republican National Committee
Section 1. In each year when a President of the United States is to be elected, the State Convention shall elect a National Committeeman and a National Committeewoman to take office at the close of the succeeding National Convention. The State Chairman shall certify the names of the National Committeeman and National Committeewoman so elected to the National Committee.
Article VII
Post-Primary Conventions
Section 3. National Convention Delegates
(a) In each Presidential election year, delegates and alternates to the Republican National Convention shall be elected in the manner specified in this Section 3, as authorized by the Rules of the National Convention.
(b) All National Convention delegates designated by the Rules of the National Convention as at-large delegates shall be elected at-large by the State Convention. All National Convention alternate delegates designated as at-large alternates shall be elected at-large by the State Convention following the election of at-large National Convention delegates.
(c) All National Convention delegates and alternates designated by the Rules of the National Convention as district delegates or district alternates, respectively, shall be elected by the caucus of delegates of that U.S. House of Representatives district at the State Convention in accordance with the Congressional district boundaries delineated under Nebraska State law. Candidates for National Convention District delegate and District alternate delegate shall file for election in person or by mailing a notice of intent to the State Headquarters postmarked no later than the 10th business day after the state primary election. Only persons elected and credentialed as delegates or alternates to the State Convention shall be qualified to be elected at the State Convention as District National Convention delegates or alternates.
(d) At-large candidates for National Convention delegate and alternate delegate shall file for election in person or by mailing a notice of intent to the State Headquarters postmarked no later than the 10th business day after the state primary election. Only persons elected and credentialed as delegates or alternates to the State Convention shall be qualified to be elected at the State Convention as at-large National Convention delegates or alternates.
(e) All candidates for delegate and alternate at the State Convention shall designate the presidential candidate to whom they are committed or state that they are uncommitted, and shall be bound by such commitment if elected, all in accordance with Nebraska State Law. Delegate and alternate candidates shall indicate their commitments by mailing a notice to State Headquarters, postmarked no later than five business days prior to the date registration for the State Convention commences.
Article IX
State Party Administration
Section 4. ELECTION AND TERMS OF OFFICE. The Chairman and Treasurer shall be elected by the State Central Committee at a meeting held no later than May 1 of each odd-numbered year. The Vice Chairman, the Assistant Chairmen, the Secretary, the General Counsel and the Finance Chairman shall be appointed by the State Chairman with the approval of the Executive Committee as soon as practicable after the election of the State Chairman and shall take office immediately, subject to the approval of their appointments by the State Central Committee at its next meeting. The term of office of the State Officers and members of the State Central Committee shall be approximately two years. They shall serve until their successors have been elected.
Recent Posts:
2012 Republican Delegate Allocation: West Virginia
2012 Republican Delegate Allocation: North Carolina
2012 Republican Delegate Allocation: Indiana
Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.
Monday, April 23, 2012
Race to 1144: MN, MO & WY Conventions
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Source:
Contest Delegates (via contest results and rules, and RNC)
Automatic Delegates (Democratic Convention Watch)
Delegate breakdown (post-MN, MO & WY conventions):
Changes since Colorado, Minnesota and North Dakota state/district conventions (4/17/12):
- Romney: +31 delegates (Wyoming: +14, Missouri: +12, Tennessee: +2, Arkansas: +1, Illinois: +1, Oregon: +1, Alabama: +1)
- Santorum: +7 delegates (Missouri: +7)
- Paul: +16 delegates (Minnesota: +10, Missouri: +4, Colorado: +2)
- Gingrich: +/- 0 delegates (Missouri: +1, Alabama: -1)
1) It should be noted that the delegates are difficult to classify in both Nevada and Vermont as both sets of automatic delegates are bound and proportionally allocated with either all of the delegates (Nevada) or with the at-large delegates (Vermont). Those six delegates are in the bound/pledged category in the spreadsheet above but are considered "contest delegates" in the bar chart at the top. It would not be surprising to see those six delegates among those who signed pledges to Romney at the RNC meeting in Scottsdale this past week when and if that list is made public.
2) Speaking of that list of pledges, at least five of the automatic delegates have been identified.
3) FHQ remembered to follow Colorado and Minnesota last weekend while I was on the road at a conference in Chicago, but the Wyoming Republican Party state convention was something I missed. All 14 of the delegates to be allocated at the state convention were allocated to Mitt Romney:
"The Wyoming Republican Party chose 14 delegates Saturday to this summer's Republican National Convention and all of them are committed to support Romney. The state will send a total of 29 delegates to the RNC."4) Two of the unpledged delegates coming out of the Colorado conventions a week ago are Ron Paul supporters.
"Todd King of Lewis and Luke Kirk of Bayfield, both supporters of Texas congressman Ron Paul, were elected delegates to the Republican National Convention in Tampa, Fla., in August. They edged out the official slate of Romney delegates at Friday evening’s convention of 3rd Congressional District Republicans."Don't be surprised when and if more of the other 12 unpledged Colorado delegates reveal themselves to be aligned with Paul.
5) The four congressional district conventions that have been held in Minnesota have favored Texas congressman, Ron Paul, thus far. Ten of his supporters won slots in the four conventions held over the weekend, bringing Paul's total delegates won in the North Star state to 20 -- half the total Minnesota delegation. The affiliation of the weekend's remaining two delegates are unknown.
6) In the eight Missouri congressional district conventions over the weekend, Mitt Romney won half of the 24 total delegates at stake. The other twelve delegates were divided among Santorum (7 delegates), Paul (4 delegates) and Gingrich (1 delegate). Romney swept all of the delegates in the 4th and 8th districts. Ron Paul did the same in the 5th district. Three candidates took delegates in each of the 1st and 6th districts while the final three districts elected Romney-Santorum slates.
7) The allocation of the delegates in Georgia is based on the most recent vote returns published online by the office of the Georgia Secretary of State. The allocation here differs from the RNC allocation in Georgia. The above grants Gingrich one additional delegate (which has been taken from Romney's total). Due to the way the Georgia Republican Party rounds fractional delegates, the FHQ count was off by one delegate (+Romney/-Gingrich). The congressional district count is unaffected (Gingrich 31, Romney, 8 and Santorum 3), but the way the at-large delegates are allocated to Gingrich and Romney -- the only candidates over 20% statewide -- is a bit quirky. Gingrich's portion of the vote would have entitled him to 14.6 delegates and Romney's 8.0. Under Georgia Republican rules, Gingrich is given 14 delegates and Romney 8. That leaves nine delegates unclaimed because the remaining candidates did not clear the 20% threshold. The candidate with the highest "remainder" is awarded the first delegate and the candidates over 20% trade turns until all of those delegates are allocated. Remember, Gingrich did not round up to 15 delegates (14.6), but that 0.6 gives him a larger "remainder" than Romney. The former speaker, then, is allocated the first of nine delegates. With an odd number of delegates leftover, Gingrich would have a fifth turn after Romney's fourth and that would end the allocation of those "extra" delegates. Gingrich would claim five to Romney's four. Of the 31 at-large delegates, Gingrich is allocated 19 and Romney 12. Please note that for winning the statewide vote, Gingrich is allocated the three automatic delegates. That makes the final allocation Gingrich 53, Romney 20 and Santorum 3. The RNC, though, has a different interpretation.
8) The Alabama primary results by congressional district have not been released by the Alabama Republican Party. UPDATE (4/23/12, 1pm): Admittedly, FHQ had not checked on the Alabama delegate situation in a while [BOO! -- But thanks to Matt for prompting me to check in the comments below.]. In the meantime, the Alabama Republican Party revamped their website and now glosses over the delegate allocation. The press releases section now skips from April to February in the inverted chronology with nothing from March. I was still unable to track down the certified results by congressional district, but there is a certified delegate allocation from the Alabama Republican Party floating around out there:
Alabama Republican Presidential Primary Certified Results
What was "preliminary" about the delegate list in the memo on March 23 was "confirmed" by the Alabama Republican Party on or around April 6.
Recent Posts:
Another Weekend, Another Mixed Bag for Romney in Caucus State Delegate Allocation
In Missouri, A Bill to Bind Delegates Based on the Presidential Primary; Not the Caucus
Race to 1144: CO, MN & ND Conventions
Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.
Tuesday, April 17, 2012
Race to 1144: CO, MN & ND Conventions
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Source:
Contest Delegates (via contest results and rules, and RNC)
Automatic Delegates (Democratic Convention Watch)
Delegate breakdown (post-CO, MN & ND conventions):
Changes since Maryland, Washington, DC & Wisconsin (4/3/12):
- Romney: +25 delegates (Colorado: +14, North Dakota: +7, New York: +2, Connecticut: +1, Massachusetts: +1)
- Santorum: +15 delegates (North Dakota: +7, Colorado: +6, Minnesota: +2)
- Paul: +12 delegates (Minnesota: +10, North Dakota: +2)
- Gingrich: +1 delegate (North Dakota: +1)
1) Mitt Romney has picked up five automatic delegates in the time since the April 3 primaries: two in New York and one each in Colorado, Connecticut and Massachusetts.
2) The AP reported in the week after the North Dakota Republican state convention that of the 25 total delegates, Romney added 12, Santorum 8, Paul 2 and Gingrich 1. The remaining two contest delegates were uncommitted.
3) In Colorado, Romney was awarded 13 delegates, Santorum 6 and the final 14 contest delegates remained uncommitted following the state and congressional district conventions over the weekend.
4) The four congressional district conventions that have been held in Minnesota have favored Texas congressman, Ron Paul, thus far. Ten of his supporters have won slots while Santorum delegates filled out the 12 delegate slate.
5) The allocation of the delegates in Georgia is based on the most recent vote returns published online by the office of the Georgia Secretary of State. The allocation here differs from the RNC allocation in Georgia. The above grants Gingrich one additional delegate (which has been taken from Romney's total). Due to the way the Georgia Republican Party rounds fractional delegates, the FHQ count was off by one delegate (+Romney/-Gingrich). The congressional district count is unaffected (Gingrich 31, Romney, 8 and Santorum 3), but the way the at-large delegates are allocated to Gingrich and Romney -- the only candidates over 20% statewide -- is a bit quirky. Gingrich's portion of the vote would have entitled him to 14.6 delegates and Romney's 8.0. Under Georgia Republican rules, Gingrich is given 14 delegates and Romney 8. That leaves nine delegates unclaimed because the remaining candidates did not clear the 20% threshold. The candidate with the highest "remainder" is awarded the first delegate and the candidates over 20% trade turns until all of those delegates are allocated. Remember, Gingrich did not round up to 15 delegates (14.6), but that 0.6 gives him a larger "remainder" than Romney. The former speaker, then, is allocated the first of nine delegates. With an odd number of delegates leftover, Gingrich would have a fifth turn after Romney's fourth and that would end the allocation of those "extra" delegates. Gingrich would claim five to Romney's four. Of the 31 at-large delegates, Gingrich is allocated 19 and Romney 12. Please note that for winning the statewide vote, Gingrich is allocated the three automatic delegates. That makes the final allocation Gingrich 53, Romney 20 and Santorum 3. The RNC, though, has a different interpretation.
6) The Alabama primary results by congressional district have not been released by the Alabama Republican Party. The distribution above is based on the RNC interpretation of the allocation.
7) Iowa Republican Party Chairman Spiker was a part of the Paul campaign in Iowa and resigned his position upon taking up the post of party chair. While he has expressed his intent to side with whomever the Republican nominee will be, Spiker has not also directly signaled any neutrality in the race. The door is open for his support of Paul at a potential contested convention. While FHQ includes Spiker in Paul's delegate total, it is necessary to make note of the possible future subtraction of one delegate that would bring the Texas congressman's total to 26.
Recent Posts:
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Hey Hey, Ho Ho. This Romney Protest's Got to Go?
Santorum Suspends: A Nomination Race in Context
Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.
Monday, April 16, 2012
Mixed Results for Romney in First Contests Since Becoming Presumptive Nominee
If you were expecting a repeat of North Dakota in Colorado or Minnesota over the weekend in state and/or congressional district conventions, you were dealt a bit of a surprise.
Unlike what transpired in the Peace Garden state two weeks ago, presumptive Republican presidential nominee, Mitt Romney, was unable to dominate the proceedings in either Colorado's state and congressional district conventions or in the three congressional district conventions in Minnesota's 3rd, 5th and 6th districts. Instead Romney was shut out in the North Star state, overperformed his statewide straw poll showing in the Colorado state convention, and broke even or was bested in the seven congressional district conventions in the Centennial state.
In Minnesota:
According to Minnesota Republican National Committeewoman Pat Anderson, Ron Paul swept all three congressional district conventions in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. Remember on February 7 when the twitterverse collectively scoffed at the the notion that Paul would get the "maximum number of delegates out of Minnesota"? FHQ filed that memory away. As of now, four congressional districts have held conventions. Paul adds nine from the past weekend's three conventions to the one delegate he received in the 7th district at the end of March.1 Half way through the congressional district delegate allocation, 83% of the delegates so far selected support Ron Paul. FHQ has been saying it since January, and we'll say it again: Ron Paul will get his delegates. Will he win the Republican nomination? No, but he will likely overshoot his delegate total from four years ago in St. Paul this summer in Tampa.
In Colorado:
Statewide:
In winning eight delegate spots out of 12 total at-large delegates, Mitt Romney outperformed his 35% straw poll share of the vote by almost 100%.2 In other words, had Colorado proportionally allocated its at-large delegates, Romney would have received just four delegates. On this particular weekend, this statewide (state convention) vote was the closest thing to North Dakota that was witnessed across two other (mostly) non-binding caucus states.
Congressional Districts:
Of all the candidates, Mitt Romney had the most delegates at five of the seven Colorado congressional district conventions. Of course, that overlooks the fact that there was a fairly significant cache of unpledged delegates across all seven districts. It also turns a blind eye to the reality that Santorum's and Paul's collective delegate strength was greater than Romney's in five of the seven districts. In those two districts where Romney outmatched the Paul/Santorum "team"3 -- the 3rd and 6th districts -- Romney won one and two delegates respectively. Unpledged delegates won the other two delegate positions in the 3rd and the other one in the 6th. It may, then, have been less about a collective effort between Paul and Santorum supporters than the majority of unpledged delegates in both of those districts.
What was truly strange was that Santorum won any of the congressional district delegates. He placed fourth in the number of congressional district convention delegates in the 1st (one delegate won) and 2nd (one delegate won), and third in the 4th (one delegate won), 5th (two delegates won), and 7th (one delegate won). No candidate received all three delegates from any of the seven congressional districts, but Santorum winning two delegates in a district where he finished behind "Unpledged" and Paul -- in that order -- was noteworthy the weekend after the former Pennsylvania senator suspended his campaign.
Meanwhile, it was perhaps even stranger that Ron Paul emerged from the Colorado district conventions with no pledged delegates. Many Paul supporters celebrated the overall unpledged victory, claiming that those are Ron Paul delegates. And with Santorum out, that may not necessarily be untrue, though Santorum delegates comprise six of the 20 total slots that were not either Romney delegates or automatic delegates in the Colorado delegation.
What, then, can we take away from the weekend?
For starters, this provides us with perhaps the polar opposite to what happened in North Dakota, where the state party put forth a delegate slate for vote before the entire state convention that was weighted toward Mitt Romney. Romney may or may not do well among the Minnesota at-large delegate slate, the Paul, Santorum and Gingrich supporters aren't rolling over and playing dead.
...even if Romney is the presumptive Republican nominee.
And again, this further fills out the picture of the connection between the straw poll results and the actual delegate allocation in the non-binding/unbound delegate caucus states. It may be that at some point everyone rallies behind Mitt Romney as the Republican nominee, but that is not happening yet as the state conventions for these caucus states roll around. North Dakota was evidence that the party (state or national) was willing that to be the case, but Colorado and Minnesota have given the counterargument: That the straw poll, or more to the point, the precinct caucuses are not entirely meaningless. There is no binding mechanism, but that does not mean that the delegates chosen to move from one round of the caucus/convention process are not devoid of presidential candidate preferences. The fallout from North Dakota and the results in Colorado and (so far in) Minnesota should speak to that. None of these allocations have been proportional to the straw poll results, nor have they been winner-take-all. They are the organic byproduct of the caucus/convention system; unbound by direct allocation rules.
The expectation is that Romney will likely move toward a consolidation of the vote in the remaining primary states, but these caucus states -- finishing up a process that was borne out of an earlier and competitive portion of this race -- will be worth watching. Delegates committed to the non-Romney candidates may continue to be for their candidates.
...or at least against the presumptive nominee as these processes run their course. Want a signal that the not-Romney voters and delegates have given up? Watch these delegate allocating state conventions as primaries continue to tip toward Romney.
--
1 Delegates supporting Rick Santorum took the other two slots.
2 Colorado Republican Party National Delegate Results:
Colorado Republican Party National Delegate Results
3 This was something that FHQ brought up last week in setting the stage for the Colorado delegate allocation.
Recent Posts:
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Unlike what transpired in the Peace Garden state two weeks ago, presumptive Republican presidential nominee, Mitt Romney, was unable to dominate the proceedings in either Colorado's state and congressional district conventions or in the three congressional district conventions in Minnesota's 3rd, 5th and 6th districts. Instead Romney was shut out in the North Star state, overperformed his statewide straw poll showing in the Colorado state convention, and broke even or was bested in the seven congressional district conventions in the Centennial state.
In Minnesota:
According to Minnesota Republican National Committeewoman Pat Anderson, Ron Paul swept all three congressional district conventions in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. Remember on February 7 when the twitterverse collectively scoffed at the the notion that Paul would get the "maximum number of delegates out of Minnesota"? FHQ filed that memory away. As of now, four congressional districts have held conventions. Paul adds nine from the past weekend's three conventions to the one delegate he received in the 7th district at the end of March.1 Half way through the congressional district delegate allocation, 83% of the delegates so far selected support Ron Paul. FHQ has been saying it since January, and we'll say it again: Ron Paul will get his delegates. Will he win the Republican nomination? No, but he will likely overshoot his delegate total from four years ago in St. Paul this summer in Tampa.
In Colorado:
Statewide:
In winning eight delegate spots out of 12 total at-large delegates, Mitt Romney outperformed his 35% straw poll share of the vote by almost 100%.2 In other words, had Colorado proportionally allocated its at-large delegates, Romney would have received just four delegates. On this particular weekend, this statewide (state convention) vote was the closest thing to North Dakota that was witnessed across two other (mostly) non-binding caucus states.
Congressional Districts:
Of all the candidates, Mitt Romney had the most delegates at five of the seven Colorado congressional district conventions. Of course, that overlooks the fact that there was a fairly significant cache of unpledged delegates across all seven districts. It also turns a blind eye to the reality that Santorum's and Paul's collective delegate strength was greater than Romney's in five of the seven districts. In those two districts where Romney outmatched the Paul/Santorum "team"3 -- the 3rd and 6th districts -- Romney won one and two delegates respectively. Unpledged delegates won the other two delegate positions in the 3rd and the other one in the 6th. It may, then, have been less about a collective effort between Paul and Santorum supporters than the majority of unpledged delegates in both of those districts.
What was truly strange was that Santorum won any of the congressional district delegates. He placed fourth in the number of congressional district convention delegates in the 1st (one delegate won) and 2nd (one delegate won), and third in the 4th (one delegate won), 5th (two delegates won), and 7th (one delegate won). No candidate received all three delegates from any of the seven congressional districts, but Santorum winning two delegates in a district where he finished behind "Unpledged" and Paul -- in that order -- was noteworthy the weekend after the former Pennsylvania senator suspended his campaign.
Meanwhile, it was perhaps even stranger that Ron Paul emerged from the Colorado district conventions with no pledged delegates. Many Paul supporters celebrated the overall unpledged victory, claiming that those are Ron Paul delegates. And with Santorum out, that may not necessarily be untrue, though Santorum delegates comprise six of the 20 total slots that were not either Romney delegates or automatic delegates in the Colorado delegation.
| 2012 Colorado Republican Party Congressional District Delegate Breakdown (National Convention Delegates Won in Parentheses) | |||||
| District | Unpledged | Romney | Santorum | Paul | Gingrich |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 20 (2) | 31 | 7 (1) | 36 | 5 |
| #2 | 51 (2) | 14 | 7 (1) | 13 | 1 |
| #3 | 89 (2) | 27 (1) | 19 | 6 | 2 |
| #4 | 78 (2) | 28 | 23 (1) | 13 | 0 |
| #5 | 35 | 9 (1) | 14 (2) | 17 | 0 |
| #6 | 48 (1) | 31 (2) | 11 | 4 | 0 |
| #7 | 56 (1) | 21 (1) | 16 (1) | 10 | 0 |
| (Total) | (10) | (5) | (6) | (0) | (0) |
What, then, can we take away from the weekend?
For starters, this provides us with perhaps the polar opposite to what happened in North Dakota, where the state party put forth a delegate slate for vote before the entire state convention that was weighted toward Mitt Romney. Romney may or may not do well among the Minnesota at-large delegate slate, the Paul, Santorum and Gingrich supporters aren't rolling over and playing dead.
...even if Romney is the presumptive Republican nominee.
And again, this further fills out the picture of the connection between the straw poll results and the actual delegate allocation in the non-binding/unbound delegate caucus states. It may be that at some point everyone rallies behind Mitt Romney as the Republican nominee, but that is not happening yet as the state conventions for these caucus states roll around. North Dakota was evidence that the party (state or national) was willing that to be the case, but Colorado and Minnesota have given the counterargument: That the straw poll, or more to the point, the precinct caucuses are not entirely meaningless. There is no binding mechanism, but that does not mean that the delegates chosen to move from one round of the caucus/convention process are not devoid of presidential candidate preferences. The fallout from North Dakota and the results in Colorado and (so far in) Minnesota should speak to that. None of these allocations have been proportional to the straw poll results, nor have they been winner-take-all. They are the organic byproduct of the caucus/convention system; unbound by direct allocation rules.
The expectation is that Romney will likely move toward a consolidation of the vote in the remaining primary states, but these caucus states -- finishing up a process that was borne out of an earlier and competitive portion of this race -- will be worth watching. Delegates committed to the non-Romney candidates may continue to be for their candidates.
...or at least against the presumptive nominee as these processes run their course. Want a signal that the not-Romney voters and delegates have given up? Watch these delegate allocating state conventions as primaries continue to tip toward Romney.
--
1 Delegates supporting Rick Santorum took the other two slots.
2 Colorado Republican Party National Delegate Results:
Colorado Republican Party National Delegate Results
3 This was something that FHQ brought up last week in setting the stage for the Colorado delegate allocation.
Recent Posts:
Hey Hey, Ho Ho. This Romney Protest's Got to Go?
Santorum Suspends: A Nomination Race in Context
Cart Before the Horse: Pennsylvania/Colorado Edition
Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.
Saturday, March 31, 2012
Romney Turns the Tables on Santorum/Paul at North Dakota Republican Convention
UPDATE: The AP is reporting the North Dakota delegate preferences as follows: Romney: 12, Santorum: 8, Paul: 2, Uncommitted: 2 and Gingrich 1. [4/6/12]
FHQ tweeted yesterday that a better indicator of where Rick Santorum stands in the Republican presidential nomination race currently may be the North Dakota Republican state convention this weekend instead of the Wisconsin primary on Tuesday.
Why?
Well, the emerging conventional wisdom is that the contest is, at best, slipping away from Santorum if it has not already completely slipped out of his campaign's grasp. Wisconsin is another one of those midwestern/Rust Belt opportunities for the former Pennsylvania senator (see Michigan, Ohio and Illinois), but North Dakota represents a state where he has already done well; winning the March 6 straw poll in the Peace Garden state. If he performs up to or overperforms the 39% of the vote he received in the straw poll in the convention delegate selection, then nothing really changes. If, however, Santorum underperforms in the delegate count compared to his straw poll vote share in North Dakota, then that is likely to be indicative of lack of organization within the Santorum campaign concerning caucus/convention states, state party establishment coalescence around Mitt Romney (or another candidate or candidates), and/or the delegates at the state convention collectively coming to a different conclusion as to which delegates represent the state at the national convention.
Recall that the 25 North Dakota delegates to the Republican National Convention in Tampa are technically unbound. The straw poll had no binding effect on the delegates who will ultimately be chosen. That said, it appears that the North Dakota Republican Party has made some effort to use that unbound loophole to their advantage; putting up for a vote at today's convention proceedings a group of delegates that seemingly leans heavily toward Mitt Romney. Romney placed third in the Super Tuesday straw poll in North Dakota with just under 24% of the vote.
However, news emerging from the convention this morning indicates that Romney may have the support of up to 60% of the national convention delegates placed in nomination and voted on by the state convention delegates.1 The formula used by the North Dakota State Executive Committee that yielded that outcome was weighted toward volunteers, donors and elected officials, obviously a group aligned with the establishment in the North Dakota GOP and more likely -- it could be argued -- to support Romney.
Given that both Rick Santorum and Ron Paul finished ahead of Romney in the straw poll, their supporters on the floor of Saturday's convention meeting were not happy and quite vocal in opposition to the slate of delegates put forth by the state party for a vote by the state convention delegates. Former North Dakota Republican Party chairman and Santorum supporter, Gary Emineth, called the delegate selection process "a railroad job" and that the party establishment had "hijacked" the process.. Additionally, current chairman, Stan Stein, shouted down dissenting voices and failed to recognize others as the process fell into a back and forth of parliamentary procedure.
The party and most of the convention was willing to proceed to the other business of the day: endorsements in races down-ballot from the presidential race. Following that, the convention adjourned for today while ballots were still being counted from the national delegate vote. That will be finalized tonight sometime.
So much for those AP fantasy delegates allocated to Santorum and Paul after Super Tuesday. Unbound these delegates may be, but they have preferences that in the aggregate seem to favor Mitt Romney well above his straw poll support level.
We'll see by just how much tomorrow.
--
1 Others in attendance at the North Dakota Republican Party state convention indicated that the NDGOP slate put forward would have given Romney 20 delegates, Santorum 6 and Paul 2. That would have been over 70% of the 28 total delegates the party will send to Tampa who would have backed Romney; about triple the level of support he received compared to the straw poll.
Recent Posts:
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These things are over sooner rather than later.
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Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.
FHQ tweeted yesterday that a better indicator of where Rick Santorum stands in the Republican presidential nomination race currently may be the North Dakota Republican state convention this weekend instead of the Wisconsin primary on Tuesday.
Why?
Well, the emerging conventional wisdom is that the contest is, at best, slipping away from Santorum if it has not already completely slipped out of his campaign's grasp. Wisconsin is another one of those midwestern/Rust Belt opportunities for the former Pennsylvania senator (see Michigan, Ohio and Illinois), but North Dakota represents a state where he has already done well; winning the March 6 straw poll in the Peace Garden state. If he performs up to or overperforms the 39% of the vote he received in the straw poll in the convention delegate selection, then nothing really changes. If, however, Santorum underperforms in the delegate count compared to his straw poll vote share in North Dakota, then that is likely to be indicative of lack of organization within the Santorum campaign concerning caucus/convention states, state party establishment coalescence around Mitt Romney (or another candidate or candidates), and/or the delegates at the state convention collectively coming to a different conclusion as to which delegates represent the state at the national convention.
Recall that the 25 North Dakota delegates to the Republican National Convention in Tampa are technically unbound. The straw poll had no binding effect on the delegates who will ultimately be chosen. That said, it appears that the North Dakota Republican Party has made some effort to use that unbound loophole to their advantage; putting up for a vote at today's convention proceedings a group of delegates that seemingly leans heavily toward Mitt Romney. Romney placed third in the Super Tuesday straw poll in North Dakota with just under 24% of the vote.
However, news emerging from the convention this morning indicates that Romney may have the support of up to 60% of the national convention delegates placed in nomination and voted on by the state convention delegates.1 The formula used by the North Dakota State Executive Committee that yielded that outcome was weighted toward volunteers, donors and elected officials, obviously a group aligned with the establishment in the North Dakota GOP and more likely -- it could be argued -- to support Romney.
Given that both Rick Santorum and Ron Paul finished ahead of Romney in the straw poll, their supporters on the floor of Saturday's convention meeting were not happy and quite vocal in opposition to the slate of delegates put forth by the state party for a vote by the state convention delegates. Former North Dakota Republican Party chairman and Santorum supporter, Gary Emineth, called the delegate selection process "a railroad job" and that the party establishment had "hijacked" the process.. Additionally, current chairman, Stan Stein, shouted down dissenting voices and failed to recognize others as the process fell into a back and forth of parliamentary procedure.
The party and most of the convention was willing to proceed to the other business of the day: endorsements in races down-ballot from the presidential race. Following that, the convention adjourned for today while ballots were still being counted from the national delegate vote. That will be finalized tonight sometime.
So much for those AP fantasy delegates allocated to Santorum and Paul after Super Tuesday. Unbound these delegates may be, but they have preferences that in the aggregate seem to favor Mitt Romney well above his straw poll support level.
We'll see by just how much tomorrow.
--
1 Others in attendance at the North Dakota Republican Party state convention indicated that the NDGOP slate put forward would have given Romney 20 delegates, Santorum 6 and Paul 2. That would have been over 70% of the 28 total delegates the party will send to Tampa who would have backed Romney; about triple the level of support he received compared to the straw poll.
Recent Posts:
2012 Republican Delegate Allocation: Wisconsin
These things are over sooner rather than later.
South Carolina House Moves to Safeguard Future Presidential Primary Calendar Position
Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.
Saturday, April 18, 2009
Jones Reelected OK GOP Chair: 2012 Primary Seemingly Safe
Oklahoma GOP chairman, Gary Jones was reelected today. Delegates to the Oklahoma Republican Convention chose their current chair over vice chairman, Cheryl Williams by a nearly three to one margin (1282.4 to 461.6 -- Yeah, I don't know how those tenths of a delegate work either.). After the chair vote, one of Williams' supporters attempted to nominate her for her current position, but since she had not submitted her name for the office of vice chair, she was called out of order and was not among the group being voted on.
The Oklahoma GOP, then, has the same chair, a new vice chair, and after a fully charged debate, will stick with the state's presidential primary in 2012. Ho hum; nothing to see here.
H/t: Michael Bates for the tweets from Oklahoma City and the convention.
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The Oklahoma GOP, then, has the same chair, a new vice chair, and after a fully charged debate, will stick with the state's presidential primary in 2012. Ho hum; nothing to see here.
H/t: Michael Bates for the tweets from Oklahoma City and the convention.
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2012 Primary on the Line in Oklahoma City at the OK GOP Convention
As FHQ discussed last weekend, the Oklahoma 2012 presidential primary may be in jeopardy depending upon the candidate selected as the state party's next chairman. Current chair, Gary Jones represents the status quo (and a presidential primary in 2012), while vice chair, Cheryl Williams, and her supporters are advocating a switch to a caucus. As we pointed out last week, though, that Oklahoma is lost in the shuffle primary season in and primary season out is not about the state having a primary as opposed to a caucus.And the big names in the Oklahoma GOP seem to realize that. Sen. Tom Coburn, when addressing the convention, questioned the wisdom of taking up a caucus system and dropping the primary. The senator is also stressing the drawbacks of the potential division that could emerge between the two factions of the party. This chair vote today at the convention is seen as a proxy of the vote in the caucus/primary discussion.
Usually, I'd say let's just sit back and wait for the results to come in, but we don't have to do that. I'm not a big fan of Twitter (It seems silly to an often verbose person like myself.), but in real-time situations like this it can be useful. And believe it or not there are a couple of good Twitter feeds coming in from the Oklahoma GOP convention. BatesLine has the best numbers coming through right now, though. Here's a link to the feed.
It looks as if Jones (and the primary) is gaining a pretty good amount of support in Oklahoma's rural counties. If I have time later, I'll put up a county-by-county map of the results.
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