2020 Democratic Delegate Allocation: GUAM

GUAM

Election type: territorial caucuses
Date: June 6
    [May 2 originally]
Number of delegates: 13 [7 at-large delegates, 6 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional territory-wide
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: territorial caucuses (proportional)
Delegate selection plan (post-coronavirus)


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Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.

That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.

Changes have not exactly been plentiful in Guam over the years with respect to how Democrats in the US territory allocate and select their delegates to the national convention. After all there are only so many ways to conduct that process with a small number of people and with only seven at-large delegates to allocate and select.

But the coronavirus forced Guam Democrats out of their comfort zone and out of the party's first Saturday in May calendar position; the one typically set aside for presidential caucuses. Some time during March or April the territorial party made the decision to indefinitely postpone the caucuses due to the spread of the pandemic. And it was not until June 3 that the party submitted and had approved by the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee a revised delegate selection plan.

That plan basically looks like a normal Guam Democratic Party delegate selection plan. The party will caucus on June 6, gauge presidential preference and allocate delegates in proportion to the share of the qualified vote (15 percent or more) each candidate receives. Given the time available, the party indicates in the plan, it will not be able to conduct any mail-in voting. The Saturday, June 6 caucuses, then, will be an in-person affair among registered Guam Democrats. [Prospective voters can registered at the caucuses.] Additionally, a drive-thru option will be available in some caucus locations.


Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies territory-wide for the allocation of the seven at-large delegates.


Delegate allocation (at-large)
To win any at-large delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the territory-wide vote in the caucuses. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the allocation of those delegates.

See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.


Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
There are no congressional districts or other subdivisions within Guam and as such there are no district delegates to allocate in the June 6 caucuses.


Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.

[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]


Selection
The seven at-large delegates to the national convention from Guam will be selected at the June 6 territory-wide caucuses. Delegate candidates were to have filed by May 30 and will be selected in proportion to the vote of qualifying candidates in the caucuses.

Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of territory-wide delegates, then any territory-wide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. However, given the simultaneity of the allocation and selection on June 6 in Guam, that means that there is no real potential for reallocation of those territory-wide delegates. This reallocation would only applyi if a candidate has fully dropped out.  This is less likely to be a factor with just Biden left as the only viable candidate in the race, but Sanders could still gain territory-wide delegates by finishing with more than 15 percent territory-wide. Under a new deal struck between the Biden and Sanders camps, Biden will be allocated (or reallocated) all of the territory-wide delegates in a given state. However, during the selection process, the state party will select Sanders-aligned delegate candidates in proportion to the share of the qualified territory-wide vote.

Guam Democratic Delegate Selection Plan Sets Territorial Caucuses for May 2

An August 1 press release from the Democratic Party of Guam announced the party's delegate selection plan for the 2020 presidential nomination cycle.

The document details Guam Democrats plans for May 2 caucuses (coinciding with the party-run primary in Kansas). Timing the contest at that point on the calendar -- the same first Saturday in May date the party used in 2016 -- will qualify the Guam Democratic delegation to the Democratic National Convention for a stage III timing bonus that will increase the delegation by one at-large delegate from six base delegates to a total of seven.

Those seven delegates will be allocated under DNC rules to the candidates who receive 15 percent or more of the vote in the May 2 caucuses.

Rounding out the Guam Democratic delegation are an additional six automatic delegates (superdelegates): the four DNC members from the territory (party chair, party vice chair, national committeeman and national committeewoman), the Guam Democratic delegate to Congress and the Democratic Guam governor.


The Guam Democratic Party caucuses have been added to the 2020 FHQ presidential primary calendar.


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Guam Goes for Romney

...unanimously.

...and by a show of hands.

Not unimportantly, Mitt Romney won the Guam caucuses/convention in Saturday voting in the Pacific territory of the US. With the victory came all nine of the delegates in Guam -- both the 3 automatic delegates and the six other delegates apportioned to the territory. All nine are technically unbound and will likely continue to be consider as such by the RNC in its ongoing delegate count. However, all nine delegates have opted to recognize the will of the caucus and support the winner, Romney.

FHQ says "not unimportantly" because those nine delegates -- in the midst of any delegate fight -- are quite potentially much larger than one would assume a tiny territory to be in a nationwide battle for the Republican nomination. It isn't the nine delegates so much as the nine delegate margin. That margin is larger for Romney than the one delegate margin Santorum enjoyed in Oklahoma on Tuesday. But this also sheds light on the role the three other territories -- also with nine delegates each -- might play in this process. In the context of the coming week, the caucuses in Guam, the Northern Marianas, the Virgin Islands and American Samoa could all (if) with one collective voice offset any/most of the gains that Santorum or Gingrich could make in Alabama, Kansas and Mississippi. All three of have an element of proportionality. The 25 of Kansas' 40 delegates are proportional. Alabama's allocation method resembles Georgia's and could provide a nice margin for any candidate if they have a Gingrich-in-Georgia type win. In Mississippi, all 37 bound delegates are proportionally allocated. Each candidate - if they clear the delegate threshold -- will receive delegates in these three states.

But those gains may be neutralized by the territories coming up. After all, Guam ain't just Guam. It and the other territories count, too.

...especially if they deliver all of their delegates to one candidate. And the Northern Marianas look to be leaning toward Romney too.


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Guam Republicans to Select Delegates at March 10 Convention

Guam Republicans will join Republicans in the other outlying Pacific territories, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by holding a March nominating contest. On March 10 -- just like Republicans in the Northern Marianas -- Republicans in Guam will meet at a territorial convention to select their nine delegates to the Republican National Convention in Tampa. That total includes the territory's three automatic delegates: the territorial party chair, the Guam Republican national committeeman and the Guam Republican national committeewoman (all three of which will be elected at the meeting). The remaining six delegates to the national convention will be chosen from among the registered Republicans in attendance at the March 10 meeting. All nine delegates will attend the national convention unbound.

Guam becomes the last state or territory to set a date. The Texas date is still uncertain, but the state had set a date of March 6 last year before it was changed to April 3 late in 2011 and pushed back even further this last week.

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Thanks to Eric Tsai for forwarding the news and link to FHQ.


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Guam: Oh Well, So Much for Frontloading the General Election

There's actually quite a bit of Guam news this morning. Well, any bit of news from Guam is usually quite a bit of news. But I'm one to talk: I've featured the island in at least three posts this election cycle. Anyway, Ballot Access News is reporting that the acting Guamanian governor (Lt. Gov. Michael W. Cruz) vetoed the bill that would have moved the island's straw vote for president from November to coincide with its primary election in September.

Here's the news from the web page of Guam's governor:

Acting Governor Michael W. Cruz vetoed Bill No. 287 yesterday which would have moved Guam's "straw poll" vote for President and Vice-President of the United States from the general election to the primary election.

"It seems conducting the "straw poll" hours before the rest of the United States begins voting would garner more attention than conducting a "straw poll" during the primary election," Acting Governor Cruz said. "If Guam is going to conduct a "straw poll" we should vote the same as all other American citizens which is during the general election."

Although residents of Guam do not officially vote for these positions, Guam has been conducting what is called a "straw poll" casting of ballots for the President and Vice-President hours before the rest of the United States begins voting.

That's interesting not only because of the veto news, but because it answers one of the questions that emerged from the post concerning bill #287 in the first place. Namely, when does Guam actually vote? On election day, which would be prior to the mainland US or after the rest of the US votes. Guamanians seem to take pride in being the first to vote. Hmmm, Guam as a bellwether. Interesting.

It is funny that this news should come out now because the answer to this question was actually independently verified by a Guam (or former Guam) resident who stumbled on that post. Here are his or her comments which actually contain some useful information about the island's ideological and demographic make up:

Hey there! I saw this blog through a google search and I was deeply intrigued. To answer the questions posted on the comments, yes.. Guam does vote a straw poll during election day..... but... as Guam is a day ahead of the mainland US (hence the term, "Where America's Day Begins," we actually do this voting almost a whole day before the US Mainland does their General Election. I myself am privy to this fact as I, being a Liberal Democrat, was part of the 33% Guamanian minority who voted for Kerry in 2004. As I am currently on Hawaii, I plan on making this vote "count" for Obama (As if that matters in this solidly blue state... har har). This year we may see a break of this pattern though (i.e. the Guam straw poll being predictive of the US General Election results). Guam is a peculiar territory.... deeply rooted in Catholic beliefs. If anything, I would brand the electorate there EXTREMELY socially conservative (even the Democrats there are Pro-Life), yet EXTREMELY economically liberal (even the Republicans there support HUGE governement spending on social programs and hiring their close family friends to run them). Obama himself won the island by 7 votes..... and counting the super-delegates in the island, Hillary pulled ahead (you see, Hillary was a symbol to Guam voters as a "What can you do for ME" kinda politician). Obama, does not seem to play to this pandering as much as Hillary.... this may in turn hurt him in the Guam straw poll, but may very well help him in the US Mainland GE. Here's to a hope of broken PATTERNS!!!

And so ends today's lesson on Guam. Any questions?


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Guam: Why Frontload in the Primaries When You Can Do it in the General Election?

Not content with merely being noticed during the presidential primaries this year, the Guamanian legislature has passed a measure to frontload its general election vote (technically a straw poll anyway) to coincide with its primary election on September 6. As Guam goes, so goes the nation. Well, maybe not, but if that were true, it would be the shortest general election campaign ever. The official general election season traditionally kicks off following Labor Day and the primary in Guam falls on the Saturday after Labor Day (September 1 this year).

The good folks in Guam must have missed the fact that college football will have begun by that point. They can't compete with that. Then again McCain will be competing with the first NFL game with his Thursday night acceptance speech at the GOP convention. Who said sports and politics don't mix?

Seriously though, this is an interesting move by the legislature in Guam. They aren't going to get any attention in November anyway (since their votes don't officially count toward the eventual winner of the presidential race), but they may at least get a mention in the media with this move. I wouldn't put this on par with the Iowa straw poll that the Republicans hold in the late summer before primary season begins every four years, but the media will be looking for signals of who will win this election in November. And even a straw poll in Guam will be something different from a convention or what will, by then, be a steady stream, if not torrent, of poll numbers. If you're among the powers that be in Guam, why not not make the move?

Thanks to Ballot Access News for the link.


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7! 7 Votes in Guam!

You have to love when the coincidence of politics overlaps with film. In this case, I'm referring to one of the few memorable lines from the largely forgettable Black Sheep. But seriously, seven votes! Florida, eat your heart out. I don't know that the contest in Guam, or the outcome for that matter, moves the needle in the Democratic nomination race heading into Tuesday's contests in North Carolina and Indiana, but it is remarkable how close the final vote tally between Clinton and Obama was (and I don't care that it was out of just more than 5000 votes). The delegates will be split evenly (all four of them), but Obama did pick up an additional superdelegate when one of his supporters was elected Guam's Democratic party vice chair.

Meanwhile, both candidates had an hour each this morning on the Sunday morning talk shows. Obama played the front-runner on the Meet the Press, acting like and assuming he is the Democratic nominee. Clinton, for her part on This Week, did the same. There has been a stink raised over her appearance on a show hosted by a former member of her husband's administration, George Stephanopoulos. Both she and Stephanopoulous have mentioned and made light of the relationship during the show, but I don't know that she has enjoyed an easier road than Obama got from Tim Russert. On the topic of Florida and Michigan and the rules regarding the DNC's treatment of their nominating contests, Clinton said that it wasn't in the rules that Obama should take his name off the ballot in Michigan. That's the first I've heard that argument. I doubt that one's going to fly with the remaining undecided superdelegates (or the voters in the remaining primary states). It doesn't hurt to try, though, I suppose.

On to North Carolina and Indiana!

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