Showing posts with label Hawaii. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hawaii. Show all posts
Thursday, March 23, 2023
Hawaii Committee Shakes Up Presidential Primary Bill
Tuesday, March 7, 2023
Hawaii Senate Passes Super Tuesday Presidential Primary Bill
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Wednesday, March 1, 2023
Second Hawaii Committee Green Lights Super Tuesday Presidential Primary Bill
An amended SB 1005 was quickly passed by the panel with no objections. The move now clears the way for the legislation to be considered by the full Senate.
With the House companion bill bottled up in committee, the Senate version becomes the only viable path to creating a stand-alone presidential primary for 2024 in the Aloha state, a state that has only ever known party-run delegate selection/allocation processes.
Hawaii is the last state government under unified Democratic control with no state-run presidential primary.
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Saturday, February 25, 2023
Hawaii Super Tuesday Primary Bill Stymied in House Committee
Testimony was taken in a hearing on HB 1485, and unlike the committee discussion on the Senate companion, the House bill revealed an internal squabble among the Hawaii Democratic Party over the potential change. While the state party supports the transition from a party-run process to a state-run primary -- both the state party chair and national committeeman spoke in favor of the move in the hearing -- the Stonewall Caucus within the party objected. At issue was not the party-run to state-run change, but rather, the possible shift from a closed caucus or party-run primary process to the open primary called for in the Hawaii constitution. That constitutional provision conflicts with a stated preference for a closed process in the Hawaii Democratic Party constitution.
But that intra-party disagreement was not what derailed HB 1485 in committee. After all, all Hawaii officials are nominated in the very same open primaries. No, instead it was a technical issue that will bottle the legislation up in committee on the House side and likely kill it.
On the recommendation of committee chair, Rep. David Tarnas (D-8th, Hawi), JHA deferred the measure because it missed a just-passed deadline for bills to have been moved out of their initial committees. HB 1485 came to the panel with no stated appropriation, but the Hawaii Office of Elections estimated the cost to the state at $2.7 million, something that would cause it to be re-referred to the Finance Committee. That need for a secondary committee referral triggered the lateral deadline.
However, HB 1485 being blocked does not kill the effort to create a presidential primary election in Hawaii this session. It just kills the House version. The Senate companion legislation, the amended SB 1005, made it through its first committee ahead of the deadline and will move to Ways and Means where the price tag of the proposed stand-alone primary will be debated. It is that bill -- the Senate companion -- that will now become the vehicle for the Super Tuesday presidential primary effort.
No hearing has been scheduled for SB 1005 in Senate Ways and Means as of now.
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Friday, February 17, 2023
Super Tuesday Presidential Primary Bill Inches Forward in Hawaii
By a vote of 4-1 with the lone Republican on the panel in opposition, the Hawaii Senate Judiciary Committee recommended SB 1005 be passed with amendments. None of the amendments dealt with the scheduling of the primary, but instead mainly focused on technical corrections/additions to the introduced legislation from the Scott Nago, the chief elections officer from the Hawaii Office of Elections.1
Aside from those issues, the biggest concern that emerged in the committee hearing for the bill was about a state party's ability to opt out of the proposed state-run primary. After hearing from a representative of the Hawaii Democratic Party, Sen. Joy San Buenaventura (D-2nd, Puna) asked of there was any input from the state Republican Party on the matter and whether an opt-out was included in the legislation for any party that may choose to stick with the caucuses that have been traditionally used to select and allocate delegates to the national conventions. With no representative from the state Republican Party present and the lone Republican on the committee, Sen. Brenton Awa (R-23rd, Kāne'ohe), silent on the matter, that question was left largely unanswered. However, an amendment was inserted in the legislation to provide for a deadline of six months before the proposed presidential primary for state parties to inform the state as to their intentions to participate in the presidential primary or not.
The Hawaii Office of Elections estimated the cost of the presidential primary election to be north of $2.7 million. That was not a roadblock in the committee consideration of the bill, but it may receive push back when the full Senate -- or Ways and Means, where SB 1005 is headed next -- takes up the legislation. Whether that potential resistance is enough to derail the whole package is an open question. Cost of the election will be weighed against any pressure the Democratic majority feels to bend toward the discouragements of the national party to avoid caucuses. Hawaii is the only state with unified Democratic control of state government as of now with no state-run presidential primary option.
Related:
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1 Most of the amendments were geared toward firming up specific deadlines for candidate filing and about language that would have to be tweaked due to the nature of a presidential primary. Unlike other primaries, the winner of a presidential primary is not necessarily the candidate who will appear on the general election ballot, a distinction not currently included in Hawaii electoral code.
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Thursday, January 26, 2023
Companion Super Tuesday Bill Introduced in Hawaii House
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This legislation has been added to the updated 2024 presidential primary calendar.
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Monday, January 23, 2023
Hawaii Senate Bill Proposes Super Tuesday Presidential Primary
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This legislation has been added to the updated 2024 presidential primary calendar.
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Friday, January 20, 2023
Hawaii Bill Would Establish a Presidential Primary
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This legislation has been added to the updated 2024 presidential primary calendar.
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Friday, October 16, 2020
The Electoral College Map (10/16/20)
Update for October 16.
The work week comes to a close in much the same way that it began. Which is to say that the polling releases slowed down relative to the last few days while posting a handful more surveys than came out on Monday. Regardless, today's batch offered some unusual results from both some of the usual suspects and some of the less frequently surveyed states further out in the order on both sides of the partisan line. And perhaps suggesting that the results were uncommon is coded language for the fact that a few of these polls do not exactly match the story of consistency that FHQ has so often told in recent weeks. That said, even with a few polls that stray from consistency, little changed and that is especially true in the states that matter in the heart of the order on the Electoral College Spectrum below.
In any event, on to the polls...
Polling Quick Hits:
Alaska
(Trump 45, Biden 39)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +6.59]
The Last Frontier has seen but nine publicly released surveys in calendar 2020 and Siena/NYT Upshot_ was the latest to wade into the presidential, Senate and House races to gauge public sentiment as time until election day inched down below three weeks this week. What Siena found in the presidential race in its first survey there this season was not off target with respect to the overall margin. It is in line with the average margin FHQ has had for Alaska for a few weeks now. What is different in this poll is how much support both caudates are pulling. Both are at their low points by fairly significant margins. Biden lags around five points behind his graduated weighted average share of support in Alaska polling and Trump is six points off his. And this is due to Siena not prompting potential leaners among at large group of undecided respondents and those supporting other minor party candidates. But again, since the margin is consistent with where the race is Alaska has been, this poll does not shift the state much in the order among Lean Trump states.
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +6.59]
The Last Frontier has seen but nine publicly released surveys in calendar 2020 and Siena/NYT Upshot_ was the latest to wade into the presidential, Senate and House races to gauge public sentiment as time until election day inched down below three weeks this week. What Siena found in the presidential race in its first survey there this season was not off target with respect to the overall margin. It is in line with the average margin FHQ has had for Alaska for a few weeks now. What is different in this poll is how much support both caudates are pulling. Both are at their low points by fairly significant margins. Biden lags around five points behind his graduated weighted average share of support in Alaska polling and Trump is six points off his. And this is due to Siena not prompting potential leaners among at large group of undecided respondents and those supporting other minor party candidates. But again, since the margin is consistent with where the race is Alaska has been, this poll does not shift the state much in the order among Lean Trump states.
Arizona
(Trump 46, Biden 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.03]
Siena's survey in Alaska was not the only first time in _____ poll of the day. Targoz Market Research_ was also recently in the field but in Arizona and had Trump ahead there by one percent. Trump leads in the Grand Canyon state are not non-existent, but they have happened with some relative infrequency. Out of the 82 publicly available polls in Arizona, Trump has led in just 15 of them. In October alone there have been 13 polls conducted in the state and Trump has led in only two of them. That is just around one in every six surveys with Trump ahead. They occur. And this poll in particular finds Trump right in the middle of his range of support while Biden is toward the bottom of his recent range. Arizona remains close, but as indicated by the nature of the polling above, Biden has been consistently out in front in the state.
Siena's survey in Alaska was not the only first time in _____ poll of the day. Targoz Market Research_ was also recently in the field but in Arizona and had Trump ahead there by one percent. Trump leads in the Grand Canyon state are not non-existent, but they have happened with some relative infrequency. Out of the 82 publicly available polls in Arizona, Trump has led in just 15 of them. In October alone there have been 13 polls conducted in the state and Trump has led in only two of them. That is just around one in every six surveys with Trump ahead. They occur. And this poll in particular finds Trump right in the middle of his range of support while Biden is toward the bottom of his recent range. Arizona remains close, but as indicated by the nature of the polling above, Biden has been consistently out in front in the state.
Florida
(Biden 48, Trump 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.36]
It was not that long ago -- in the lead up to the first debate -- that FHQ cited how often Biden +3 leads were popping up in the data in the Sunshine state. The latest Mason-Dixon poll of Florida likely voters hits that sweet spot and is at least some evidence of some contraction in the race there since July when the firm was last in the field there. Then, it was Biden 50-46 but during a period that was part of that polling surge across the country for the former vice president. The interesting thing is that both candidates have lost some support since that time. It is not much, to be sure, but both ticked down some to a point that is consistent with where the FHQ averages are for both candidates in Florida.
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.36]
It was not that long ago -- in the lead up to the first debate -- that FHQ cited how often Biden +3 leads were popping up in the data in the Sunshine state. The latest Mason-Dixon poll of Florida likely voters hits that sweet spot and is at least some evidence of some contraction in the race there since July when the firm was last in the field there. Then, it was Biden 50-46 but during a period that was part of that polling surge across the country for the former vice president. The interesting thing is that both candidates have lost some support since that time. It is not much, to be sure, but both ticked down some to a point that is consistent with where the FHQ averages are for both candidates in Florida.
Hawaii
(Biden 61, Trump 28)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +29.86]
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +29.86]
Like Alaska, there has been little polling of Hawaii in calendar 2020 and even fewer pollsters involved. Other than a few waves of small sample surveys from Survey Monkey, MRG Research has been the only other pollster to conduct any surveys in the Aloha state and had an update released today. Like the July poll, this latest survey was among registered and not likely voters, but still saw some movement. But it was movement for just one candidate. Trump held steady in the upper 20s which is behind both his 2016 showing and his current polling average in the state. On the other hand, Biden added support in the three months since the last MRG survey of Hawaii and pulled in line with Clinton's pace there four years ago and his own current FHQ average share of support in the state. And that is not an uncommon feature of the 2020 polling in the bluest of states. Any difference between the polling of 2020 and the 2016 results in those states is typically on Trump's side of the equation. The president tends to trail his 2016 showing while Biden is often consistent with where Clinton ended up in November 2016. But hold on to that thought for a moment. It returns later on in the post.
Michigan
(Trump 47, Biden 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.08]
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.08]
With just one exception, Trafalgar Group has shown a close race for Michigan's 16 electoral votes; something that often looks similar to the 2016 results in the state. That exception was the last survey the firm conducted immediately prior to the first presidential debate at the end of September that found Biden up a couple of points. If that is one's touchstone, then it looks as if there has been a modest shift in October toward Trump. Instead, it is that late September poll that stands out in the Trafalgar series in the Great Lakes state. What is more the whole series does not exactly jibe well with the full universe of polls in Michigan in calendar 2020. Michigan has been the most frequently surveyed state this cycle and just 13 of the 103 surveys have had Biden below 47 percent as he is in the this survey. And of those 13, eight found the former vice president either tied or in the lead. All of those tended to have a high share of undecided/other respondents. And the rest were from Trafalgar which has had both candidates consistently in the mid-40s other than the pre-debate poll cited above. Typically, that ends up with Trump at the high end of his range and Biden near the low point of his.
New Jersey
(Biden 56, Trump 36)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +19.05]
Over in the Garden state, the new Stockton University survey -- its first there of the cycle -- fell in line with the current FHQ average shares of both candidates there. But as was the case in Hawaii, the poll was consistent with the averages but was more evidence of Biden being on par with Clinton's showing in New Jersey and Trump lagging behind his by more than four points. Again, that is the trend in some deeper blue states: Biden seemingly consolidating Clinton support and Trump being unable to put together the same 2016 coalition.
North Carolina
(Biden 49, Trump 49)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.76]
Emerson was back in the field in North Carolina for the first time since September and although there were some changes they were in part methodological. The 51-49 Biden edge then is a tie at Emerson now, but the college pollster added an other response in this latest survey that was not there last month. The presence of other in the October poll siphoned off a couple of point and it came mainly from Biden. However, the bottom line in this Emerson series in the Tar Heel state is that it has been close and obviously continues to be in this latest update. But in this case, the survey has Biden support in line with his average at FHQ while Trump is running out in front of his average support.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
DC-3
VT-3
(6)2
|
IL-20
(162)
|
WI-10
(253)
| MO-10
(125)
|
TN-11
(60)
|
MA-11
(17)
| OR-7
(169)
|
PA-203
(273 | 285)
| AK-3
(115)
|
KY-8
(49)
|
MD-10
(27)
| NJ-14
(183)
|
NV-6
(279 | 265)
| SC -9
(112)
|
AL-9
(41)
|
HI-4
(31)
|
ME-2
(185)
|
FL-29
(308 | 259)
|
KS-6
(103)
|
SD-3
(32)
|
CA-55
(86)
|
CO-9
(194)
|
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
|
NE CD1-1
MT-3
(97) |
ID-4
(29)
|
NYI-29
(115)
|
VA-13
(207)
|
NC-15
ME CD2-1
(335 | 219)
|
NE-2
(93)
|
AR-6
(25)
|
DE-3
(118)
|
NH-4
(211)
|
GA-16
(351 | 203)
|
IN-11
(91)
|
OK-7
(19)
|
WA-12
(130)
|
NM-5
(216)
|
OH-18
(187)
|
UT-6
(80)
|
ND-3
(12)
|
ME CD1-1
CT-7
(138)
|
MN-10
(226)
|
IA-6
(169)
|
MS-6
(74)
|
WV-5
(9)
|
RI-4
(142)
| NE CD2-1
MI-16
(243)
|
TX-38
(163)
|
LA-8
(68)
|
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is. | ||||
If one expected big changes from floods of state-level polling over the last few days, then this smaller batch should certainly temper expectations today. They should be low in a fairly consistent race anyway. And while there were no changes to the map or the Watch List below, some of the polls above whether unusual or not from and/or from sporadically surveyed states triggered a couple of changes. The margin grew in Hawaii after the MRG poll was added there, pushing the Aloha state past New York and California deeper into the Biden coalition of states. The Siena poll of Alaska had the opposite effect. Yes, the Last Frontier remains in a tightly clustered group with Missouri and South Carolina, but the poll release there today drew the average in just enough to pull Alaska past Missouri toward the partisan line. Still, both of those states are safely blue and red respectively. And that is unlikely to change between now and election day.
18 days to go.
Where things stood at FHQ on October 16 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008
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NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Potential Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Georgia
|
from Toss Up Biden
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Strong Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
New Mexico
|
from Strong Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Biden
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
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Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.
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Related posts:
Wednesday, August 5, 2020
The Electoral College Map (8/5/20)
Update for August 5.
There are now just 90 days until election day on November 3. And that threshold has been marked by a change to the map here at FHQ. Ohio has once again hopped the partisan line in the order of states below and shifted to a Biden toss up. However, the Buckeye state, like Pennsylvania during the latter half of July, is a state constantly teetering on the brink of a change, hovering near the line that separates Biden's and Trump's respective coalitions of states. In other words, even though this change restores the map to what it was when FHQ began these near daily updates in mid-June, Ohio is in a position where that could change as new polling data is introduced.
And not to return once again to this well, but if Ohio is among the most competitive states -- and it is the most competitive on the map at the moment -- on November 3, then it says a lot about where the election is likely headed.
Polling Quick Hits:
Hawaii (Biden 56, Trump 29):
Yesterday, there were a handful of polls from reliably red or blue states that helped fill out the picture on the extremes of both candidates' current coalitions. Today adds another poll from such state, and it is the first survey in the field in Hawaii in calendar 2020. Unsurprisingly, Biden leads and comfortably in the MRG Research poll, but his share of support in the poll is behind where Clinton ended up in the Aloha state in November 2016. But there was a large share of undecideds (10 percent).
Florida (Biden 43, Trump 43):
Zogby Analytics had an interesting series of battleground polls from a quartet of states. But it was an interesting set taken together. Inconsistent with other recent polling, Florida was the most competitive of the bunch while Ohio and Pennsylvania were less tipped toward Biden than North Carolina. All four were within four points of each other which is a seemingly tight range. Yet, at FHQ the spread between the is right at five points, but the order of the states is different. Such outcomes are not that atypical within a group in that sort of range, but it does look off when Florida and Pennsylvania have consistently been more Biden-favorable in polls than North Carolina and Ohio have been. The tie in Florida in particular is on the very low end of the range of margins in the Sunshine state in 2020 polling there.
Iowa (Biden 47, Trump 47):
Monmouth was also out with another state-level survey with different samples and assumptions about what turnout may look like in November. As was the case with the earlier Georgia and Pennsylvania polls from Monmouth, the new Iowa poll had a range of results that differ based on the assumptions made. And like those earlier state-level polls the race got more competitive as the sample moved from registered to likely and from likely (high turnout) to likely (low turnout). But in the Hawkeye state that meant the race got more positive for Biden through that succession instead of more Trump-friendly. But FHQ has taken to using the low turnout version and does so again in this instance. That said, for context, the change in the averages is about half a point. Trump's already narrow advantage in Iowa dips from 1.5 points with the registered sample included to just a bit more than a point (and just off the Watch List) with the low turnout assumption.
Michigan (Biden 53, Trump 41):
Hodas and Associates was again in the field in July in the blue wall states that Trump flipped in 2016. And again, as in June, they collectively and individually paint a rather rosy picture for Joe Biden. In the Michigan survey, however, the former vice president saw both his margin and share of support slip from June to July while still maintaining a double digit lead. That Biden +12 is not necessarily an outlier, but it is on the upper end of the range in the Wolverine state in late July polling. More importantly, it was outdated enough in early August that the impact was reduced in the FHQ graduated weighted average. While it boosted Biden's overall advantage here in the state, it remained around Biden +7.5.
North Carolina (Biden 44, Trump 40):
The survey of the Tar Heel state from Zogby Analytics was in line with other recent polling in the field in the state. But while the margin may have been consistent, neither candidate's share of support was. Both were on the low end with inflated (unprompted) undecideds. But while Biden's share in the poll was off by almost three points from the FHQ average share, Trump's was lower by more than five points.
Ohio (Biden 43, Trump 41):
The same thing was true of the Zogby Analytics survey in Ohio as well. Yes, the two point Biden edge was enough to tip the Buckeye state over the partisan line into Biden territory, but with a higher than typical share of undecideds, both candidates ran behind their established averages at FHQ, but Trump was disproportionately affected, running four points behind where the aggregated polling outlook has the president in the Buckeye state. These polls may not be outliers with respect to their margins, but their shares of support for the two major party candidates is well below where they have tended to be in all four states.
Pennsylvania (Biden 44, Trump 43 via Zogby Analytics | Biden 51, Trump 45 via Hodas & Associates):
Rather than go broken record and repeat the same story about Zogby, there was a Hodas poll more worthy of a discussion. Like the Michigan poll above, Biden led in July, but by less than was true in June. Like the Michigan survey, the Pennsylvania poll also saw the margin decrease by six points. By unlike the still-rosy picture in Michigan, the Pennsylvania results were right in line with where FHQ currently has the race in the Keystone state pegged: in the mid-single digits. Biden's share of support was still north of 50 percent and that has been a facet of these Hodas polls over the last couple of months. Overall, however, Pennsylvania remains just above the Lean/Toss up line in the Lean Biden category.
Wisconsin (Biden 52, Trump 38):
Finally, in the Badger state, Hodas and Associates also found Biden out to a big lead. But yes, it also trailed off some from the 17 point advantage Biden had in Wisconsin in the June wave of blue wall surveys. And even though the margin shrank, Biden's +14 in this poll is still on the high side of the range of polling in the Badger state. Most of that is a function of Trump's low standing in these polls. The president comes in again under 40 percent, four points behind his FHQ average share of support.
NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.
There were nine new polls from eight different states released today, and with the exception of maybe the Iowa survey, all of them were quirky in one way or another. Quirks though many of those surveys may have contained, they did not fundamentally shake things up here at FHQ. Yes, Ohio jumped back onto Biden turf, but a slight breeze could have accomplished that as close as the Buckeye state was in the averages before that Zogby survey was added. Again, new polling data may take Ohio back over the partisan line when it is introduced. The state remains the closest and that should be expected rather than not, barring a further large national shift in Biden's direction. Everything else stayed the same in the rank ordering of states depicted on the Electoral College Spectrum above.
But the Watch List lost one state. Wisconsin nudged over the six point barrier and is no longer within a point of shifting from a Lean to Toss up Biden state. But that push across the six point barrier was fueled by a (somewhat outdated) outlier. In other words, its addition was discounted, but still pushed the average margin up enough (but just by two one hundredths of a point). Everything else other than Ohio stayed the same on the List. Those 12 states remain the ones to watch, where polling data may trigger a change.
And add underpolled Nevada to that list as well.
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There were also no new polls from Nevada today.
Days since the last Nevada poll was in the field: 97.
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NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
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Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.
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Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (8/4/20)
The Electoral College Map (8/3/20)
The Electoral College Map (8/2/20)
Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.
| Changes (August 5) | |||
| State | Before | After | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio |
Toss Up Trump
|
Toss Up Biden
| |
And not to return once again to this well, but if Ohio is among the most competitive states -- and it is the most competitive on the map at the moment -- on November 3, then it says a lot about where the election is likely headed.
Polling Quick Hits:
Hawaii (Biden 56, Trump 29):
Yesterday, there were a handful of polls from reliably red or blue states that helped fill out the picture on the extremes of both candidates' current coalitions. Today adds another poll from such state, and it is the first survey in the field in Hawaii in calendar 2020. Unsurprisingly, Biden leads and comfortably in the MRG Research poll, but his share of support in the poll is behind where Clinton ended up in the Aloha state in November 2016. But there was a large share of undecideds (10 percent).
Florida (Biden 43, Trump 43):
Zogby Analytics had an interesting series of battleground polls from a quartet of states. But it was an interesting set taken together. Inconsistent with other recent polling, Florida was the most competitive of the bunch while Ohio and Pennsylvania were less tipped toward Biden than North Carolina. All four were within four points of each other which is a seemingly tight range. Yet, at FHQ the spread between the is right at five points, but the order of the states is different. Such outcomes are not that atypical within a group in that sort of range, but it does look off when Florida and Pennsylvania have consistently been more Biden-favorable in polls than North Carolina and Ohio have been. The tie in Florida in particular is on the very low end of the range of margins in the Sunshine state in 2020 polling there.
Iowa (Biden 47, Trump 47):
Monmouth was also out with another state-level survey with different samples and assumptions about what turnout may look like in November. As was the case with the earlier Georgia and Pennsylvania polls from Monmouth, the new Iowa poll had a range of results that differ based on the assumptions made. And like those earlier state-level polls the race got more competitive as the sample moved from registered to likely and from likely (high turnout) to likely (low turnout). But in the Hawkeye state that meant the race got more positive for Biden through that succession instead of more Trump-friendly. But FHQ has taken to using the low turnout version and does so again in this instance. That said, for context, the change in the averages is about half a point. Trump's already narrow advantage in Iowa dips from 1.5 points with the registered sample included to just a bit more than a point (and just off the Watch List) with the low turnout assumption.
Michigan (Biden 53, Trump 41):
Hodas and Associates was again in the field in July in the blue wall states that Trump flipped in 2016. And again, as in June, they collectively and individually paint a rather rosy picture for Joe Biden. In the Michigan survey, however, the former vice president saw both his margin and share of support slip from June to July while still maintaining a double digit lead. That Biden +12 is not necessarily an outlier, but it is on the upper end of the range in the Wolverine state in late July polling. More importantly, it was outdated enough in early August that the impact was reduced in the FHQ graduated weighted average. While it boosted Biden's overall advantage here in the state, it remained around Biden +7.5.
North Carolina (Biden 44, Trump 40):
The survey of the Tar Heel state from Zogby Analytics was in line with other recent polling in the field in the state. But while the margin may have been consistent, neither candidate's share of support was. Both were on the low end with inflated (unprompted) undecideds. But while Biden's share in the poll was off by almost three points from the FHQ average share, Trump's was lower by more than five points.
Ohio (Biden 43, Trump 41):
The same thing was true of the Zogby Analytics survey in Ohio as well. Yes, the two point Biden edge was enough to tip the Buckeye state over the partisan line into Biden territory, but with a higher than typical share of undecideds, both candidates ran behind their established averages at FHQ, but Trump was disproportionately affected, running four points behind where the aggregated polling outlook has the president in the Buckeye state. These polls may not be outliers with respect to their margins, but their shares of support for the two major party candidates is well below where they have tended to be in all four states.
Pennsylvania (Biden 44, Trump 43 via Zogby Analytics | Biden 51, Trump 45 via Hodas & Associates):
Rather than go broken record and repeat the same story about Zogby, there was a Hodas poll more worthy of a discussion. Like the Michigan poll above, Biden led in July, but by less than was true in June. Like the Michigan survey, the Pennsylvania poll also saw the margin decrease by six points. By unlike the still-rosy picture in Michigan, the Pennsylvania results were right in line with where FHQ currently has the race in the Keystone state pegged: in the mid-single digits. Biden's share of support was still north of 50 percent and that has been a facet of these Hodas polls over the last couple of months. Overall, however, Pennsylvania remains just above the Lean/Toss up line in the Lean Biden category.
Wisconsin (Biden 52, Trump 38):
Finally, in the Badger state, Hodas and Associates also found Biden out to a big lead. But yes, it also trailed off some from the 17 point advantage Biden had in Wisconsin in the June wave of blue wall surveys. And even though the margin shrank, Biden's +14 in this poll is still on the high side of the range of polling in the Badger state. Most of that is a function of Trump's low standing in these polls. The president comes in again under 40 percent, four points behind his FHQ average share of support.
NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
MA-112
(14)
|
NJ-14
(173)
|
WI-10
NE CD2-1
(253)
|
AK-3
(125)
|
TN-11
(56)
|
HI-4
(18)
|
OR-7
(180)
|
PA-203
(273 | 285)
|
MO-10
(122)
|
NE-2
(45)
|
CA-55
(73)
|
DE-3
(183)
|
FL-29
(302 | 265)
|
SC-9
(112)
|
ID-4
(43)
|
VT-3
(76)
|
CO-9
(192)
|
NV-6
(308 | 236)
|
MT-3
(103)
|
AL-9
(39)
|
NY-29
(105)
|
NM-5
(197)
|
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
|
UT-6
(100)
|
ND-3
(30)
|
WA-12
(117)
|
ME-2
(199)
|
NC-15
(334 | 219)
|
LA-8
NE CD1-1
(94)
|
SD-3
(27)
|
MD-10
(127)
|
VA-13
(212)
|
OH-18
(352 | 204)
|
MS-6
(85)
|
KY-8
(24)
|
IL-20
(147)
|
MN-10
(222)
|
GA-16
(186)
|
IN-11
(79)
|
OK-7
(16)
|
RI-4
ME CD1-1
(152)
|
MI-16
(238)
|
IA-6
(170)
|
AR-6
(68)
|
WV-5
(9)
|
CT-7
(159)
|
NH-4
(242)
|
TX-38
ME CD2-1
(164)
|
KS-6
(62)
|
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. | ||||
There were nine new polls from eight different states released today, and with the exception of maybe the Iowa survey, all of them were quirky in one way or another. Quirks though many of those surveys may have contained, they did not fundamentally shake things up here at FHQ. Yes, Ohio jumped back onto Biden turf, but a slight breeze could have accomplished that as close as the Buckeye state was in the averages before that Zogby survey was added. Again, new polling data may take Ohio back over the partisan line when it is introduced. The state remains the closest and that should be expected rather than not, barring a further large national shift in Biden's direction. Everything else stayed the same in the rank ordering of states depicted on the Electoral College Spectrum above.
But the Watch List lost one state. Wisconsin nudged over the six point barrier and is no longer within a point of shifting from a Lean to Toss up Biden state. But that push across the six point barrier was fueled by a (somewhat outdated) outlier. In other words, its addition was discounted, but still pushed the average margin up enough (but just by two one hundredths of a point). Everything else other than Ohio stayed the same on the List. Those 12 states remain the ones to watch, where polling data may trigger a change.
And add underpolled Nevada to that list as well.
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There were also no new polls from Nevada today.
Days since the last Nevada poll was in the field: 97.
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NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Potential Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
from Toss Up Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
Georgia
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
Indiana
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Louisiana
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Mississippi
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Missouri
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Nebraska CD1
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Nebraska CD2
|
from Lean Biden
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Biden
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Biden
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
Utah
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Virginia
|
from Strong Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
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Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.
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Related posts:
The Electoral College Map (8/4/20)
The Electoral College Map (8/3/20)
The Electoral College Map (8/2/20)
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