Still Non-Compliant, Arizona's Now Locked into a February 28 Presidential Primary Date

Arizona Governor Jan Brewer today signed a virtually meaningless proclamation establishing a February 28 presidential primary in the Grand Canyon state.¹ The proclamation is next to meaningless because the primary was already set on that date based on the existing state elections law. However, it is significant in that it finally puts to rest the idea that Brewer could shift the primary up to a date earlier than February 28. Over this past weekend, the Arizona governor let pass the opportunity to move the primary up to as early as February 7.

But that speculation ends today, though it could have lasted another week and a half. The Arizona primary is now set on February 28, a week before all non-exempt states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina) are able to hold primaries or caucuses. Pending potential moves in Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Missouri, New Jersey and Wisconsin, the calendar could now conceivably be squeezed into February. Michigan will also be choosing a date in the February 28-March 6 window. But that is quite a bit of movement between now and the end of the month.

With Arizona locked in, though, the picture gets quite a bit clearer:

January 30: Iowa
February 7: New Hampshire
February 11: Nevada
February 18: South Carolina
February 21: Florida, Georgia
February 28: Arizona, Michigan

No, that doesn't get everything into February, but comes quite close. Nevada and South Carolina could be placed on the same date again in 2012 like in 2008, and move Iowa and New Hampshire into February. Of course, New Hampshire could fall back on its state law requiring a seven day buffer on either side of their primary date; meaning Nevada and South Carolina could crowd New Hampshire on the back end. That said, New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner may not want to temp fate with the national parties by being a stickler on that buffer.

The RNC is pretty close to getting something very close to its ideal calendar out of this.

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¹ Here is the press release concerning the presidential primary:

Statement from Governor Jan Brewer

Arizona’s 2012 Presidential Primary 

“Today I signed a proclamation establishing February 28 as the date of Arizona’s 2012 Presidential Preference Election. It has always been a priority of mine to ensure that Arizona and its voters play an influential role in the nomination process, and that Southwestern issues are addressed by the candidates in a meaningful fashion.  I am confident both goals will be realized, given this primary date and the RNC’s preliminary selection of Arizona for a GOP presidential debate. 

“Arizona will be a player in determining our nation’s next president. Over the next 14 months, the candidates would be wise to meet with our voters and become familiar with our issues. Many of these issues – whether illegal immigration, the housing crisis or Medicaid reform – have national implications. 

“Arizona voters will be hearing from the presidential candidates in the months ahead. Now, it is the obligation of voters to make certain that they are educated on the issues when it comes time to
make their voices heard.”

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Brewer Scratches January 31 Primary and Keeps Arizona's Options Open

Again, much ado about a debate.

This is now the second time this year that Arizona Republicans have threatened to unravel the formation of the 2012 presidential primary calendar. First, the state party signaled they were ready to pass and then voted down a resolution that would have urged Governor Jan Brewer to use her proclamation power to move the Grand Canyon state's presidential primary to an earlier date. And now, just over seven months later, after a month of doubt, Governor Brewer has decided to pass on a January 31 presidential primary date that would have forced at least five other states into January as well and the calendar into a heighten level of chaos.

On this, the day before she would have had to have set a January 31 date, Brewer has opted to accept an RNC-sanctioned debate and to keep her options open in terms of the date. The new date to watch in Arizona is September 30. If Brewer is to move the date at all from its current February 28 position, she will have to act before October 1 -- 150 days before the February 28 primary, and ironically enough, the RNC deadline for setting a date. Realistically though, if the primary is to be moved to a Tuesday the deadlines will be September 24 for a February 21 primary, September 17 for a February 14 primary and September 10 for a February 7 primary.

As always, stay tuned to FHQ for the latest.

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Here's the press release from Governor Brewer's office:

Statement by Governor Jan Brewer

Arizona Presidential Debate“I’m thrilled today to learn that Arizona has preliminarily been awarded a presidential debate sanctioned by the Republican National Committee. This is a tremendous opportunity, as Arizona will be one of just a handful of states to play host to an RNC debate. Additionally, I’m hopeful this debate will make certain that the major presidential candidates travel to Arizona, speak with our voters and address issues unique to the Southwest.  

“Arizona is a battleground for critical issues ranging from illegal immigration to Medicaid reform and the housing crisis. Our voters deserve to hear the presidential candidates speak to these and other important matters. 

“Just as important as what I’m announcing today is what I’m not announcing: a formal date for Arizona’s Presidential Preference Election. I will for the time being keep my options open. 

“With whatever date I choose, my goal remains the same as ever: To provide Arizona voters the biggest possible platform with which to impact the presidential nomination process. In such a critical election, this is a decision that is owed careful consideration.”

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Arizona: Much Ado About ...a Debate?

FHQ finds it hard to fathom that all this ballyhoo since the end of July in Arizona has been about getting the 2012 GOP presidential hopefuls into the Grand Canyon state for a debate. But that is what appears to be the alternative to a January 31 presidential primary in Arizona according to former Arizona Republican Party Chair Randy Pullen.

"That's pretty much it," former chairman Randy Pullen said when asked whether topics other than hosting a debate in Arizona were being discussed as alternatives to moving up the primary date.

Of course, Governor Brewer in comments on Thursday stated:

"I would like an early primary if at all possible. I think that kind of highlights Arizona a lot more," she said. "But depending on what we can negotiate as far as what's good for Arizona and what's good for the country as a whole ... I'm open."

The catch here is that Arizona is already scheduled to hold a non-compliant February 28 primary. In other words, the primary is already "early". As we have argued here at FHQ, the January 31 proposition was the opening offer in an ongoing negotiation to reserve Arizona a seat at the table in the 2012 Republican nomination process. But does a debate and a February 28 primary -- Is that early enough? -- achieve that or will Arizona push to schedule a debate or move its primary up to its centennial on February 14? We will likely have an answer to those questions today or tomorrow. Regardless, the debate wrinkle, while not new, is suddenly a lot more serious as far as Brewer's and Arizona Republicans' goals are concerned.

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