New Jersey, Virginia & 2010

What do any of the three have to do with each other?

FHQ would argue very little. After examining the polling in both states for the better part of five months, it is fairly clear that these races have virtually no national implications. In New Jersey, the election last night was as much about Jon Corzine as 2006 and 2008 were about George W. Bush. That is to say that each was about an unpopular incumbent. Corzine had not, as FHQ mentioned yesterday, broken the 45% barrier in polling all year and he needed to round his percentage of the vote share up to get there last night. The Democrat's chances hinged completely upon Chris Daggett's ability to siphon off votes from Christie and make 44 or 45% the winning total. When Daggett came up well short of where FHQ and most other monitors expected the independent to end up (He pulled in about half of his expected share; 5%.), Corzine basically had no chance. As was talked about on The Monkey Cage earlier today, someone viewed negatively and behind in the polls has to attack and bring his or her opponent down to their level. Lee Seligman put it better: "It’s not so much that attackers lose as that losers attack." Corzine had to attack, but in the end couldn't bring Christie down to a beatable level.

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The end result in Virginia was the same -- the Republican won -- but the process of getting there was very different. I don't think that Chris Christie or Jon Corzine were particularly great candidates, but in the commonwealth, Bob McDonnell just outclassed Creigh Deeds as a candidate. McDonnell basically held an advantage throughout the year no matter which Democratic candidate was pitted against him; an advantage that crescendoed rapidly when the votes began to be cast a day ago. Deeds, seeing that McDonnell had been spotted an edge, was essentially in the same position John McCain was in a year ago relative to Barack Obama, except the Democrat was without a presidential-level campaign team. [I'm not talking about folks from within the Obama administration. I'm talking about campaign staff that is steeped in experience. McCain had that. Deeds did not.] FHQ isn't here to throw Deeds under the bus. I just think that McDonnell was in the position of being able to take the high road (as most frontrunners are) through the thesis ordeal. Deeds' campaign, meanwhile, latched onto that story and quickly became associated with it to the point that once the issue faded there was no previously constructed message on which Deeds could lean.

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One other thing that might also be mentioned (that I haven't seen discussed anywhere) is how the primaries in this race played out. The parties tinkering with their presidential nomination rules would be wise to take note of this. FHQ won't argue that the Democratic primary battle hurt Deeds. It didn't. But Bob McDonnell was ceded the Republican nomination. In the absence of competition, the former attorney general was never forced to run to the right. Not only did that not provide Deeds or any other Democrat with any fodder for the general election campaign, but it also helped McDonnell, even with the thesis out in the open, to foster a more moderate image. In the end, it isn't the primary battle that's negative so much as the easy road to nomination is beneficial.

Fine, both New Jersey and Virginia were "all politics is local" elections. They were, but they weren't without their cautionary tales for next year's midterm elections. Neither race or outcome is a harbinger, at least not directly, but the underlying numbers present the Democratic Party with a real problem. Let's look at the numbers from 2008 and 2009. No, I don't think that is a fair comparison either, but I did want to compare the level of drop-off from last year to this year across parties. In other words, how much bigger was the drop-off difference between the Democratic and Republican candidates at the top of the ballot?

2009 New Jersey & Virginia Voting Drop-Off (vs. 2008)
State	2008	2009*	Drop-Off
Virginia	Obama: 1,959,532 McCain: 1,725,005	Deeds: 774,676 McDonnell: 1,100,470	Dem: 1,184,856 GOP: 624,535
Total:	3,684,537	1,875,146
New Jersey	Obama: 2,215,422 McCain: 1,613,207	Corzine: 1,048,697 Christie: 1,148,651	Dem: 1,166,725 GOP: 464,556
Total:	3,828,629	2,197,348
*Numbers may have changed slightly since these data were collected on the afternoon of Nov. 4, 2009. Sources: NJ 2008, 2009; VA 2008, 2009

In both cases, turnout dropped by approximately 50% from 2008 to 2009. But the difference between the way in which the number of votes decreased was not uniformly distributed across each party. These are aggregate numbers, so were not talking about the same people in 2008 and 2009, per se. However, it is more than obvious that the Republican Party maintained more of its voters than did the Democrats. In Virginia, Deeds could only hold about 40% of Obama's voters from a year ago. McDonnell, on the other hand, was able to maintain about two-thirds the level of McCain voters. The story in New Jersey was similar. Corzine held but 47% of Obama's level of turnout to Christie's 71% of McCain's.

But that's not all. Some of the exit polling was noteworthy as well. Race actually didn't play that big a role in either state, for instance. The African American share of the electorate on Tuesday was actually higher in New Jersey (14%) than it was in 2008 (12%). In Virginia, there was a decrease in the black share from 20% a year ago to 16% yesterday, and Deeds got the same 92% of those voters that Obama got in 2008. The exit polling breaks on age were also interesting. McDonnell won every age group on Virginia (not surprising when you win by 17 points), while Obama lost narrowly among 40-49 year old and over 65 year old Virginians. In New Jersey, Obama just lost among the senior set while Christie only lost among the very youngest (18-29) group.

The real difference, though, was in the partisan make up of the 2008 versus 2009 electorates (at least through the lens of the exit polling conducted).

2008 vs. 2009 Exit Polling in NJ & VA (Party ID)
State	2009	2008
New Jersey	41% D 31% R 28% I*	44% D 28% R 28% I*
Virginia	33% D 37% R 30% I**	39% D 33% R 27% I**
*Christie won independents 60-30. Obama won them 51-47 over McCain. **McDonnell won independents 66-33. Obama won them 49-48 over McCain. Sources: CNN (NJ and VA) -- 2008, New York Times (NJ and VA) -- 2009

That paints a fairly stark contrast between the two elections. Republicans made up a larger share of the electorate in 2009 and both Republican gubernatorial candidates ran away with the independent vote. If yesterday's results mean anything for 2010, it is that the Democrats may have an enthusiasm gap riddle to solve between now and next year this time. FHQ still contends that these elections were decided based on local forces, but the tie that binds them is the fact that Democrats seemingly sat these races out. Resting up for 2010, or simply complacent post-2008? That is the question.

Outside of that, I'm still scratching my head trying to figure out what a pro-medical marijuana/anti-same sex marriage voter in Maine looks like. Politics is great.


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State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (11/3/09) -- Final

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (11/3/09) -- Final

State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (11/3/09) -- Final

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Prediction: Christie wins.

After looking back over the states FHQ incorrectly predicted a year ago in the presidential election (Indiana and North Carolina), we have come to the conclusion that close races are where our graduated weighted average can get into trouble. Yes, those are races that happen to be just like New Jersey. In our defense, Indiana was the only surprise. North Carolina was at least moving in Obama's direction. And though, New Jersey has moved in Corzine's direction in October, there is too much running against the incumbent Democrat. For starters, Corzine will likely have to poll over or around 45% to win unless Chris Daggett wins more than the 10% we have the independent projected to win. If Daggett doesn't get a larger share, Corzine will have to clear a barrier that he has yet to clear in any poll conducted in the race this year. He never got better than 44%. On top of that, Christie won no matter how we calculated our average, or more accurately what polls FHQ decided to include.

If all the 2009 polls were used, Christie won by the 3.4% you see above.

If only the polls since the June primary were included, Christie won by 2.2%.

If a simple average of all the final day polls is used, Christie won by one-third of a percentage point.

That may indicate that the momentum is behind Corzine in the aggregate. It could, but it could also mean that Corzine is still coming up short. Ordinarily, FHQ might be inclined to say that the tie goes to the one who has won statewide before because they would have some organizational advantage in a close race. In this case, though, Corzine's inability to crack 45% in any poll is the biggest piece of evidence against him.

And for FHQ, that is why we're giving the slight nod to Republican Chris Christie in this race.


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Final Virginia Update coming between 2 & 3 this afternoon.

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State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (11/2/09)

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On Election Eve, things in New Jersey are pretty much where they were when the day began: close. All that remains is for the votes to be cast tomorrow. First, however, we here at FHQ have to reconcile how we are going to look at this as the Garden state gubernatorial race comes to a close. As I mentioned last night, the margin between Chris Christie and Jon Corzine was likely to get tighter as the last flurry of polls were released, but that the chance of Christie falling behind Corzine, as has been the case at other poll aggregating sites, was very slim indeed. In fact, the Republicans advantage only fell to 3.4 points.

However, one of the criticisms that FHQ should have gotten, but never did, during the examination of the polling in this race, was the cut off for polls being included in our graduated weighted averages. Somewhat arbitrarily, we have been looking at polls conducted since the first of the year. Again, the earlier a survey was in the field the less it counted in our averages. Still, being that as it may, some of those polls were among the worst for Corzine throughout the year. Out of curiosity, we wanted to see what moving that cut off would do to the numbers. Yes, the first of the year made sense to some extent: people technically closed the book on 2008 and began looking forward to 2009. It could reasonably be argued, though, that some folks didn't really begin paying attention until the general election field was set following Christie's primary victory on June 2. [Others, perhaps, would make the point that even some of those polls are outdated.]

What, though, would FHQ's averages look like if the cut off was moved to June 2 instead of January 1? [Yeah, I thought it was a good question, too.] Well, as might be expected Christie dropped off some; moving from the 43.3% you see above to 41.6% in the post-primary period. Somewhat surprisingly, though, Jon Corzine dropped as well. Given that Corzine was stuck in essentially the same polling position throughout (at least until this last month), that decrease was less pronounced. The incumbent Democrat shifted downward from 39.9% to 39.4%. Yet, the overall margin between the two major party candidates was cut by just about a quarter; from 3.4% to 2.2%

2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Corzine	Christie	Daggett	Undecided
Public Policy Polling [pdf]	Oct. 31-Nov. 1, 2009	+/- 3.1%	994 likely voters	41	47	11	2
Monmouth/Gannett [pdf]	Oct. 31-Nov. 1, 2009	+/- 3.7%	722 likely voters	43	41	8	7
Survey USA	Oct. 30-Nov. 1, 2009	+/- 4.1%	582 likely voters	42	45	10	3
Democracy Corps [pdf]	Oct. 29-Nov. 1, 2009	+/- 4%	606 likely voters	41	36	14	8
Quinnipiac	Oct. 27-Nov. 1, 2009	+/- 2.5%	1533 likely voters	40	42	12	6
Fairleigh Dickinson [pdf]	Oct. 22-Nov. 1, 2009	+/- 3%	1119 likely voters	43	41	8	5
Average				41.67	42	10.5	5.167

Even if we constrain the examination to just a simple average of the days final round of polling (And I've got to admit I'm kind of surprised there wasn't a last minute Rasmussen poll to accompany the six above. I mean, come on, the firm is located in New Jersey.), the underlying message is the same: Christie is ahead, but only slightly so. What does that mean? It means this race -- one in a traditionally blue state -- is tied*. Christie is ahead with something of a national, anti-incumbent wind at his back. Yet, Corzine is within striking distance, has the financial wherewithal, and can lean on a GOTV effort in a blue state that can equalize matters. Oh, and can have fake pro-Daggett robocalls made on the final night of the campaign -- not that it was Corzine directly. My point isn't to crash on Corzine so much as it is to say that this is a close one and while Christie may be slightly ahead, that is offset by the partisan conditions on the ground and the fact that Corzine has run successfully for statewide office twice this decade.

That's got to count for something. But as they say on the sporting fields, that's why they play the game. Score-keeping in that game starts tomorrow at 6am and ends at 8pm.

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*This is what Pollster shows; a 42-42 dead heat. But I've got to say, I'm kind of disappointed in their explanation for not including the new numbers from Fairleigh Dickinson. FHQ backed out the original numbers and treated today's re-release as a new poll. All the FDU folks did was add four days worth of interviews on top of the last survey release. I don't know what the problem is there other than it would have broken up this convenient tie. I'm not buying this overlapping polls explanation, but that's FHQ.

Final Virginia update coming in the morning.


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State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (11/1/09)

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While the special election in NY-23 may have forced Virginia's gubernatorial race on the backburner, the race for control of the New Jersey executive branch has not met a similar fate. The Garden state contest is every bit as close as things in the 23rd if only lacking in sheer unpredictability. Many talked about Corzine coming back to win, but the incumbent certainly took his time getting started on that trail, and may have an independent candidate's catching fire in the closing weeks for the tightening margin between the Democratic governor and Chris Christie, his Republican rival.

2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Corzine	Christie	Daggett	Undecided
Monmouth/Gannett [pdf]	Oct. 28-30, 2009	+/- 3%	1041 likely voters	42	42	8	5
YouGov/Polimetrix [pdf]	Oct. 27-30, 2009	+/- 4.4%	780 likely voters	43	41	8	8

The two polls released today in the race did nothing to change that. Christie and Corzine are knotted in the low 40s and Chris Daggett seems to be fading slightly heading into Tuesday's vote. Whether that makes his supporters rethink the wisdom of casting a ballot for a third party candidate dropping in the polls, though, remains to be seen.

As for FHQ's averages, they continue to show a tightening race. The margin between the two major party candidates has now slipped below four points with Corzine flirting with the 40% mark and Christie narrowing in on the 43% level. With just a couple of days left for polls to emerge in this race, it is likely safe to say that, unlike other sites that have shown Corzine take the lead, that won't be the case here. There isn't enough time and won't be enough polls to change that in our averages. That said, we will offer an alternative model that shows slightly different results on Monday. It isn't an official change, but it will make for an interesting comparison.

Stay tuned...

Of course, there may be a new poll out in this race before then.

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Recent Posts:
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State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/31/09)

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FHQ is a day late on the updates in New Jersey and Virginia, but it was all for a good cause. Of course, we wanted to do our yearly homage to Halloween, and what better way to do that than in the context of the gubernatorial races in the Garden state and the Old Dominion. [I still like last year's celebratory Halloween post better.]

I had the pleasure of talking with my two favorite New Jerseyans tonight about their thoughts on the gubernatorial race in the Garden state. Both are politically knowledgeable and extremely independent thinkers who spend five to six months out of the year out of the state taking in the rest of our beautiful country. If I had to guess -- and they certainly aren't terribly up front about this -- one is a Democratic leaner and the other is a Republican leaner. And that's if I was forced to guess.

Needless to say, I was excited to have the opportunity to speak with them once I found out they were passing through on their way home to vote on Tuesday. Sure, it is nice to look at poll numbers -- representative ones at that -- but the chance for a two respondent poll was too much to pass up.

The results? Bad news for Corzine.

The money quote? "We're going home to vote; not to vote for someone, but to vote against someone."

President Obama was efficient at "banking" early votes a year ago. A year later, Jon Corzine, the incumbent Democrat Obama is trying to pull over the finish line in this race, has a couple of unbanked votes trekking the final leg of their yearly odyssey across the United States coming home to the Garden state. No, my friends aren't necessarily the bellwether that a state like Missouri has been on the presidential level, but they are a pair of what Tom Jensen at Public Policy Polling has identified as grudging voters; arguably the face of this election on Tuesday.

2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Corzine	Christie	Daggett	Undecided
Rasmussen	Oct. 29, 2009	+/- 3%	1000 likely voters	43	46	8	3
Stockton/Zogby	Oct. 27-29, 2009	+/- 3%	1093 likely voters	40	39	14	6

What does any of this mean? Everything and nothing in the close race that is being depicted in the representative samples that are being polled about this contest. The race for governor is still one that finds the two major party candidates consistently within the margin of error of each other. The two surveys from Rasmussen (no net change from earlier in the week) and Stockton/Zogby didn't stray from that pattern. The former found Republican Chris Christie ahead by a handful of points while the latter (the first poll from this collaboration statewide in this race) found Corzine up a point.

And independent Chris Daggett? Well, he's still the wild card. No, the former Republican is not likely to win on Tuesday, but he and those grudging voters will go a long way toward deciding who will eventually win on November 3. Daggett has leveled off in FHQ's averages of this race (between the 10 and 11 point range). Meanwhile the margin between Corzine and Christie continues to shrink. Christie is still ahead, but that lead is under 3 points now.

And incidentally, I think I've got a couple of Daggett voters staying with me tonight.

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State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/29/09)

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Further north in New Jersey, the race for governor is shaping up to be a potential all-nighter. [Well, we have to have at least one every election cycle, I suppose. It won't be in New York City or Virginia.] FHQ will resist the urge to say that Corzine has comeback from the dead in this contest. Sure, the governor has inched up slightly of late, but he can't claim to have momentum other than to say that the race is tighter in a traditionally blue state. Fine, that could be considered momentum to some degree, but it pales in comparison to the negative momentum Republican Chris Christie has had in the surveys that have been released over the last handful of weeks. His descent since the end of September (at least in FHQ's measure -- see below) has been a marked contrast to the steady state that was typical of his summer in the polls. [There's no doubt that others saw a more pronounced gain for Christie during June and July.]

2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Corzine	Christie	Daggett	Undecided
Democracy Corps [pdf]	Oct. 27-28, 2009	+/- 4%	604 likely voters	43	38	12	7
Daily Kos/Research 2000	Oct. 26-28, 2009	+/- 4%	600 likely voters	41	42	14	3
Survey USA	Oct. 26-28, 2009	+/- 4%	640 likely & actual voters	43	43	11	3

Those differences aside, this race is much closer than it was when the temperatures were hotter outside. You don't have to look much further than the three new polls released today to see that. But the race is so close, in fact, that people are starting to take note of things like the difference between the method in which polls are conducted -- via live interview or an automated phone call. FHQ mentioned this yesterday and Nate Silver has added his two cents on the matter today. I'm not trying to say I was on top of this first. I wasn't. Jim Geraghrty pointed it out first. Regardless, if you look at the chart at FiveThirtyEight you'll see that Corzine does well in live interview polls and Christie fares best in the automated surveys. Given FHQ's averages at the outset of the post, it is pretty easy to see that, at least statistically, we come down on the side of the automated polls. Our numbers reflect that side more. But that may be more a function of the fact that those polls have been more prevalent throughout the year (Those three polling firms alone make up about a third of the total number of polls conducted since the first of the year.). If you take the FiveThirtyEight data for what it is on the surface, we can look at the averages across the two types of polls and call it a tie; at least a race within the margin of error.

And that's likely where this one is headed on election day. For now, though, we grade Christie as slightly ahead of Corzine with the margin continuing to shrink.

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FHQ is going to go with a Twitter-like, quickie post of the events of the day in both Virginia and New Jersey.

Like in Virginia, the polling in New Jersey maintained the status quo in this race.

The new Quinnipiac poll today mirrored the PPP poll from yesterday except that the two major party candidates traded positions

There was an interesting discussion about the difference between polls based on live interviews or a recording over the phone.

Phone polls are showing Christie ahead. Interviews favor Corzine.

2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Corzine	Christie	Daggett	Undecided
Quinnipiac	Oct. 20-26, 2009	+/- 2.8%	1267 likely voters	43	38	13	5

Still, this poll represents a six point gain for Corzine over the last Quinnipiac poll two weeks ago.

Unlike yesterday's PPP poll though, this one showed Daggett supporters opting for Christie over Corzine by a 43-27 count.

The PPP count of Daggett supporters found Corzine had the advantage 44-32. Again, there's a difference in poll type there.

As I said, this one merely maintained the state of the race from a day ago. Here at FHQ that means Christie is slightly ahead.

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State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/27/09)

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While Virginia is quickly being supplanted by the three way race in New York's 23rd congressional district in terms of competitive interest, New Jersey is not; buoyed by a three way race of its own. Of course, things were seemingly back to normal on Tuesday, a day after a Suffolk poll found incumbent, Jon Corzine ahead by an unseen-to-that-point 9 point advantage over Republican Chris Christie. Today, though, it was back to the within the margin of error polling leads that have marked this race in the Garden state for the last few weeks. Both Rasmussen and Public Policy Polling found as much in the state, though PPP's margin between the two major party candidates was technically outside of the margin of error.

2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Corzine	Christie	Daggett	Undecided
Rasmussen	Oct. 26, 2009	+/- 3%	1000 likely voters	43	46	7	4
Public Policy Polling [pdf]	Oct. 23-26, 2009	+/- 3.9%	630 likely voters	38	42	13	6

Still, both polls found Christie to be slightly ahead. The PPP survey is much more in line with where you no doubt see FHQ has the race pegged currently. Rasmussen, on the other hand, has a much more optimistic view of both the Democrat's and the Republican's position in the race, seemingly at the expense of independent, Chris Daggett. That is the real difference here: that Daggett has twice as much support in the PPP poll than in the Rasmussen one. Of course, the PPP survey also found that Daggett's unfavorables are rising and that he is more likely to hurt Corzine than Christie. 44% of Daggett supporters called Corzine their second choice to only 32% for Christie. The independent continues to play the wildcard in this race. Christie, however, maintains the advantage. The Republican actually gained a bit today (a function of the fact that yesterday's 33% in the Suffolk poll was replaced by the Rasmussen 46% as the most recent, fully weighted survey). Corzine, meanwhile, held steady.

What will tomorrow bring?

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A nine point Corzine lead? According to a new Suffolk survey of the Garden state, that is the case. However...

• It was Suffolk's first poll in the state for this race.
  
• The sample size is on the small end; only 400 people.
• There were a lot of undecideds (14%). The last time there was anything in the double digits for undecideds was the September 9 Rasmussen release (10%). Let me add some context: that was "You Lie!" week.
  
• Being that it was Suffolk's first poll in the race, they may have committed a grave error; weighting party identification to party registration. That's a no-no in New Jersey with unaffiliated registration.
  

Is the poll something to be dismissed? No, but it should certainly be treated as an outlier. At one end of the spectrum (an extreme application of the margin of error), if Corzine cedes five points to Christie, the Republican has a one point edge. If you were to do Monte Carlo simulations given the data in this poll, that particular outcome wouldn't come up very many times though.

2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Corzine	Christie	Daggett	Undecided
Suffolk [pdf]	Oct. 22-25, 2009	+/- 5%	400 likely voters	42	33	7	14

In FHQ's opinion, though, there is one saving grace to this survey: the Daggett result. Sure, perhaps that number should be written off as an outlier given the independent's polling numbers of late. But I think there's something to this and we all should have been tipped off to the possibility a few weeks ago when Fairleigh Dickinson released a poll with a split sample where Daggett's name was used against Corzine and Christie with one subsample and Gary Steele, another candidate for governor, was used in the other subsample. I was too busy that day bemoaning the fact that we couldn't really trust the results of such a small subsample. All the while, though, there was an interesting trend underlying that poll and now this Suffolk one: Daggett has been afforded a privileged position in most of the polls in which he has been included. The independent has been the only non-Corzine/Christie candidate to appear in many of these polls and as such has been adopted by disaffected survey respondents as the anti-Corzine/Christie; a refuge for all wanting to avoid casting a ballot for either of the two major party candidates.

When other third party names are included Daggett's support slips. Sure, he bested Gary Steele when the two subsamples of that Fairleigh Dickinson poll were compared, but the fact that Steele got over 10% was indicative of the fact that there was a fairly sizable portion of the likely electorate that did not particularly care for either Corzine or Christie.

In today's Suffolk poll, all 12 gubernatorial candidates that will appear on the ballot next Tuesday were named. Again, Daggett lost his position as the only Corzine/Christie alternative and was knocked down to earth to some extent because of it. FHQ has already discussed Daggett's ballot problem and this poll may have picked up on what Daggett faces in the ballot box next week: that instead of one alternative to Corzine and Christie, there are several. Daggett's problem now appears to be that survey respondents recognized in him an alternative to Corzine and Christie and didn't necessarily recognize him.

We won't know one way or the other until next week or until we get some more data along these lines (with hopefully a bigger sample).

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But what about the top two contenders vying for a chance to call Drumthwacket their home for the next four years? I don't think that it comes as a surprise to anyone that posting a 33 in this poll negatively affected Chris Christie's average. It did. In fact, it brought the former US attorney's average closer to the 43% mark; again uncharted territory. Meanwhile, Corzine inched ever so slightly further up, but the incumbent Democrat still pretty much sits on the 39% line. So, while Christie maintains a four point lead here, that is shrinking quickly. That's because he is doing far more falling than Corzine is jumping, though.


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State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/22/09)

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Thursday was a busy day in the New Jersey governors race. Not only was it the day of the last debate between the three main contenders, but we were also treated to three new polls in the race*. The take-home message from those surveys? Corzine and Christie have deadlocked just below the 40% mark, and at least today, independent Chris Daggett has consolidated much of the rest. Across the three polls the independent averaged just over 17% support and passed 20% in the Rutgers/Eagleton poll.

I scoffed at the notion a week or so ago that Daggett could reprise Jesse Ventura's run to the Minnesota governor's mansion in 1998, but today's polling looks an awful lot like the home stretch survey work in that Minnesota race a decade ago. No, there isn't same day registration/voting in New Jersey as there was in the Land of 10,000 Lakes, but there is a new (absentee) vote by mail process in the Garden state that could potentially help Daggett in that respect. But the independent hasn't been as vocal as Jon Corzine has been on that front. Sure, the Daggett folks have been nice enough to retweet several FHQ microblog postings on Twitter, but Corzine has been using the service to urge folks to utilize the vote by mail process while Daggett has not. [In between mentions of Obama's visit a day ago, Corzine has been informing folks about how many days are left in the vote by mail sequence. 5 more days apparently.]

FHQ mocks the Corzine camp, but Survey USA was nice enough to ask a "have you voted" question in the survey released today. And though only 8% of the respondents had, Corzine had banked slightly more votes than Christie (44-39) with Daggett trailing at 16%. Christie led Corzine by a similar margin among the 92% of the respondents who had not voted (by mail).

2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Corzine	Christie	Daggett	Undecided
Democracy Corps [pdf]	Oct. 20-21, 2009	+/- 4%	604 likely voters	42	39	13	6
Rutgers/Eagleton [pdf]	Oct. 15-20, 2009	+/- 4.1%	583 likely voters	39	36	20	5
Survey USA	Oct. 19-21, 2009	+/- 3.9%	674 likely voters	39	41	19	1

And what is the state of this race? Though the incumbent has held a fairly stable line over the course of 2009, he has finally met the 39% plateau in FHQ's averages. Meanwhile, Chris Christie's support continues to wane (below 44% for the first time in our measures) while Chris Daggett is very much waxing (over 10% and growing). All the momentum is with the independent. FHQ didn't get to catch the final debate tonight, but did follow along on Twitter. Daggett remained quiet the entire duration almost while Corzine and Christie (or their staffs at least) had an elevated tweet sniping match (compared to the other debate time tweeting). If that is any indication of how the final 12 days of this campaign are going to be waged (and it will get nasty), then Chris Daggett may well pull off his own Jesse Ventura-type win.

That's still a long shot at this point, but not as long as it was a week ago or a week prior to that. There has been a lot of talk about how these races (New Jersey and Virginia) would be spun by the national parties recently and much of that has shifted to talk of a split (Corzine winning in New Jersey and McDonnell in Virginia), but I wonder how the Democratic Party would spin it if they lost to the Republicans in Virginia and an independent in New Jersey. I suspect it would be rather dire after looking like Christie was handing it to them. Again, will that happen? FHQ doesn't dare speculate in such a tight race, but it is an interesting hypothetical to consider with under two weeks to go.

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NOTE: I feel compelled to remind readers that on multiple poll days like today, the "actual" polling levels are averaged across how many ever polls were released. That's why, for instance, you don't see Daggett on the 20% line as the Rutgers poll had him.

*It should also be noted that today was also the day that Corzine passed Christie in the Real Clear Politics and Pollster poll aggregations.


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State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/20/09)

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In Virginia, there may be reason to write off the gubernatorial race and move on, but further north in New Jersey, the story is slightly different. The race in the Garden state is shaping up to be a good one over these final two weeks. Republican Chris Christie continues to fall in the polls while independent candidate, Chris Daggett, has snatched up disillusioned supporters of the former US attorney as more and more revelations come to light. All the while incumbent Governor Jon Corzine has been biding his time, not doing much of anything in surveys the whole year. The governor has been stuck in the same 37-38% range he has been in all of 2009, yet, the Democrat is within reach of victory; something that seemed worlds away over the summer. Is it a done deal? No, but things have tightened up substantially in this race.

2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Corzine	Christie	Daggett	Undecided
Rasmussen	Oct. 19, 2009	+/- 4%	750 likely voters	39	41	11	8
Monmouth/Gannett [pdf]	Oct. 15-18, 2009	+/- 3.1%	1005 likely voters	39	39	14	7

Simply averaging the polls that have been released in the last 24 hours shows Christie with the slightest of edges (40-39), but in FHQ's estimation, the spread is a bit wider but shrinking daily. The narrative in this race -- well across this race and the Virginia race -- from will the Republican(s) win to "is this going to be a split" with one Democrat winning and one Republican winning. And what does that mean for 2010?

What does it mean for 2010? Nothing. It means that two bad candidates, who have run bad campaigns will have potentially lost. The lesson? Don't run a bad campaign. Oh, and try not to be a bad candidate. [Jack brought up a good point in the comments. The two candidates I was apparently (and admittedly) ambiguously referencing above were Chris Christie and Creigh Deeds. Of course, that naturally opens up the discussion as to whether Deeds and/or Christie are bad candidates.]

In New Jersey, though, things continue to be knotted among the two major party candidates with independent Chris Daggett rising coming down the stretch.

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State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/16/09)

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It's Debate Day #2 in New Jersey and a new New York Times poll of the gubernatorial race in the Garden state shows once again that the race is dead even between incumbent Governor Jon Corzine and Republican Chris Christie. The Times poll is another instance, however, of Corzine gaining the lead; something we've have seen happen now several times since October began. Not to be overshadowed, independent candidate Chris Daggett has once again pulled support in the mid-teens. And Daggett likely shouldn't be placed on the back burner considering it is a debate day (He did very well in the first debate. In fact, that seems to be what triggered his rise into the mid- to upper teens in October polling.) and that there are whispers floating around about a Michael Bloomberg endorsement in the race. Now, it is anything but certain that Bloomberg would come out in favor of Daggett, but that type of high-profile endorsement (especially from someone talked about last year as a third party presidential candidate), along with the Newark Star-Ledger's endorsement last weekend, certainly wouldn't hurt the efforts of the independent candidate.

2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Corzine	Christie	Daggett	Undecided
New York Times [pdf]	Oct. 9-14, 2009	+/- 5%	475 likely voters	40	37	14	9

The Times poll, though, isn't the most recent poll out there (the Rasmussen poll released yesterday is the most recently conducted poll in the race) and as such doesn't receive the full weight afforded to the most recent poll. Still, the survey had the effect of dropping Chris Christie's graduated weighted average even further under the 45% mark. Meanwhile, Corzine is flirting with 39% again and Daggett is rapidly approaching double digit support. And as the independent rises, Christie falls, bringing the margin between the two major party candidates under six points for the first time since FHQ began tracking this race. We've said that a lot lately, and if polls continue to show a statistical tie, we'll continue to see and talk about that margin contracting. And with a debate this evening, there is another opportunity on the table for a very tight race to be shaken up.

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State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/15/09)

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On the Thursday just more than two weeks out from election day, this is the state of the race in New Jersey's gubernatorial race. With two new polls showing a tight race, there are just a couple of dynamics at work. First, Chris Daggett is pushing well into the double digits in most polls recently and is very close to breaking that barrier in FHQ's averages. Whereas Daggett has the positive momentum, Republican Chris Christie is faced with continually mounting negative momentum. The former US attorney is currently on a trajectory heading closer and closer to incumbent Democrat, Jon Corzine. And sure, Corzine isn't bring any real polling shift to the table (Daggett is), but the governor has been in the position since October began to be the big winner on election day; at least relative to his position in surveys released over the summer.

2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Corzine	Christie	Daggett	Undecided
Rasmussen	Oct. 14, 2009	+/- 4%	750 likely voters	41	45	9	5
Survey USA	Oct. 12-14, 2009	+/- 4%	611 likely voters	39	40	18	3

Will that actually come to pass? That's an open question. One thing is for sure, though: Daggett's presence has made this a deadlock at the moment and has put the independent and former Republican in a position to be kingmaker. Where his supporters end up on election day will go a long way toward deciding who the eventual winner will be. That's why it is disappointing that the two polls out today (Rasmussen and Survey USA) didn't include any questions to deal with Daggett's supporters' second choice. But I suppose we all got spoiled by those questions in Public Policy Polling and Quinnipiac's polls earlier in the week.

With just 18 days left, the margin between Corzine and Christie has now fallen to nearly six points in FHQ's averages and continues to decrease as Daggett pushes ever upward.

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State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/14/09)

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The chatter around the New Jersey gubernatorial race this Tuesday three weeks before the election centered on whether independent Chris Daggett could actually win the election in the Garden state. 77% of the new Quinnipiac survey's respondents thought not, but that didn't keep the good folks at NBC News' First Read from wondering aloud about the possibility. Well, at the very least it didn't prevent First Read from making a flawed connection between Jesse Ventura's win in the Minnesota governors contest in 1998 and Chris Daggett in 2009.

Yes, environmentally, Minnesota had an electorate that was seemingly against both major parties down the stretch in that race whose candidates were deadlocked in the polls. However, New Jersey and Chris Daggett are missing two very important ingredients from the Ventura formula: money and election day registration. [Oh, and if the Minnesota ballot in 1998 was anything like this -- which is a heck of a lot better than this -- Daggett will have had something Ventura did not: a ballot problem.] Does any of this mean Daggett cannot win? Well, there is an awful lot of mounting evidence, but I suppose the idea can't be completely dismissed.

2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Corzine	Christie	Daggett	Undecided
Quinnipiac	Oct. 7-12, 2009	+/- 2.8%	1264 likely voters	40	41	14	5

Meanwhile, the two major party candidates remained in a statistical tie in yet another poll. Jon Corzine continues to hover just under the 39% mark in FHQ's averages, but Chris Christie dropped yet again; this time to just less than 45% (His lowest mark since FHQ began watching the race in June.). With each passing day, the Republican is inching ever closer to Corzine, who seems destined to come in somewhere very close to the 40% mark from here on out (Perhaps not in the voting itself, but the polling sure seems that way.).

And where does that leave this race? Well, it is a tie with a very interesting third party twist. Like the Public Policy Polling survey yesterday, the Quinnipiac poll finds Daggett's support to be on the weak side of the ledger (59% of the Daggett supporters said they still may change their minds.), and Christie is the leading second choice for those respondents. To that latter point, however, Christie leads by only 7 points (40-33), which is about half of what PPP showed yesterday. If the polls continue to show a tie between Corzine and Christie for the next three weeks, the second choice question will absolutely be the number to watch as this race runs its course.

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