Obama v. Pawlenty (2012 Trial Heats, July '10)

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The next series of updates are for candidates with only three polls (or less) conducted in hypothetical 2012 general election match ups against President Obama. As such, the trend analyses for Tim Pawlenty, Ron Paul and Jeb Bush are more susceptible to wild fluctuations given the relatively scant level of data available compared to the four candidates (Gingrich, Huckabee, Palin and Romney) covered thus far. These are clearly cases where other variables -- presidential approval and state of the economy -- may be helpful in balancing out polls like the Politico internet poll. In the midst of many other polls, that survey merely appears as an outlier. It is still an outlier for a candidate with just a few polls against Obama, but in such a case, it serves as a distinct statistical anchor. In such cases, the straight average "feels" more trustworthy for the three candidates with more than one survey conducted against Obama.

That is true for Tim Pawlenty. The Politico survey underestimates both Obama's and Pawlenty's shares of poll respondents given the other data available. It is difficult to fathom, for instance, either Obama below 40% support or Pawlenty, despite a lack of national name recognition, mustering just more than 20% support. Now, to be completely honest, a simple average is just as susceptible to outliers, but the numbers for Obama are much closer to the range in which they lie against the Big Four prospective Republican candidates. Similarly, Pawlenty's numbers, while still low, are at least closer the level of support an unknown, yet named, Republican candidate.

More than anything, this may have been what spurred Pawlenty and his inner circle to produce and release the video FHQ mentioned on Thursday. The timing was a bit abnormal, but the intent is clear, despite nary a mention of a presidential race or 2012. And hopefully, it will serve as an impetus for other polling outlets to include Pawlenty in future surveys. Political junkies thinking of 2012 can hope so at least. Trips to Iowa certainly aren't hurting those chances either.

2012 Presidential Trial Heat Polling (Obama v. Pawlenty)
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Obama	Pawlenty	Undecided
Politico [Internet]	July 9-14, 2010	+/- 3.1%	1011 likely voters	39	21	40
Public Policy Polling	Dec. 4-7, 2009	+/- 2.8%	1253 likely voters	48	35	17
Public Policy Polling	Oct. 16-19, 2009	+/- 3.5%	766 likely voters	50	30	20
Average				45.67	28.67	--
Regression Average				38.3	20.99	--

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Obama v. Gingrich (2012 Trial Heats, July '10)

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And Newt Gingrich?

The last of the Big Four routinely brought up the rear in terms of performance against Obama relative to the other three (Huckabee, Palin and Romney) during 2009. So far behind did the former speaker lag that Public Policy Polling dropped him from consideration. However, the Georgian did so well in some of the surveys of early primary/caucus states that they brought him back in 2010.

Not unlike the other three, Gingrich has seen President Obama's support dry up in these monthly glimpses into the state of the 2012 race. But it isn't all about Obama trailing off; Gingrich has crept up as well. His polling average is right on 40%, but his time-adjusted estimate brings the former speaker closer to Obama. Gingrich does not fare as well as Huckabee or Romney, but bests Palin against Obama. He settles in just in between both extremes. What is lacking on Gingrich is that there are fewer polls and that PPP surveys make up three-quarters of the data on him. Now, to be fair, PPP makes up the majority of all the candidates' data, but some more variation would likely be helpful. As with the other candidates*, most of the non-PPP polls show Obama with a larger lead. Rasmussen is the exception. But Rasmussen has not asked the Gingrich question yet. Perhaps that will change as we near 2011 and the time when presidential announcements begin to be made.

2012 Presidential Trial Heat Polling (Obama v. Gingrich)
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Obama	Gingrich	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	July 9-12, 2010	+/- 3.8%	667 likely voters	45	46	9
Public Policy Polling	June 4-7, 2010	+/- 3.8%	650 likely voters	47	39	14
Public Policy Polling	May 7-9, 2010	+/- %	707 likely voters	49	42	9
Public Policy Polling	April 9-11, 2010	+/- 3.9%	622 likely voters	45	45	10
CNN	April 9-11, 2010	+/- 3.5%	907 reg. voters	55	43	--
Clarus Research	March 17-20, 2010	+/- 3%	1050 reg. voters	48	36	16
Clarus Research	Aug. 14-18, 2009	+/- 3.1%	1003 voters	52	34	15
Public Policy Polling	Aug. 14-17, 2009	+/- 3.3%	909 likely voters	49	41	10
Public Policy Polling	July 15-16, 2009	+/- 4.1%	577 likely voters	50	42	9
Public Policy Polling	June 12-16, 2009	+/- 3.9%	638 likely voters	49	41	10
Public Policy Polling	May 14-18, 2009	+/- 3.1%	1000 likely voters	53	36	11
Public Policy Polling	April 17-19, 2009	+/- 3.7%	686 likely voters	52	39	9
Average				49.45	40.00	--
Regression Average				46.82	42.24	--

*This seems to hurt Palin the most. She is the candidate most often polled against Obama by other polling firms.

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Obama v. Romney (2012 Trial Heats, July '10)

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Among the four candidate who are surveyed most frequently in hypothetical 2012 general election match ups against President Obama, Mitt Romney does the best. [Yes, that spoils the Gingrich results on some level, but so be it.] The former Massachusetts governor's numbers are on par with Mike Huckabee's as measured by both the straight average of polls conducted and the regression trend estimate, but Romney actually leads Obama in the latter -- the only candidate to do so. While Romney tended to keep Obama's level of support at low levels as compared to most of the other Republicans polled, the 2008 presidential candidate also failed to muster much support of his own during the first half on 2009. Since July of last year, though, Romney has fared far better against Obama compared to the other Republicans across a variety of polling houses.

That consistency across polls has boosted Romney, whereas his closest competitor -- at least by our measure -- Mike Huckabee has been very consistent in the Public Policy Polling surveys while lagging in other polls. Again, that speaks toward Romney's inching upward more than it speaks to Huckabee falling. For all intents and purposes, the two hold a very similar position in relation to Obama in a potential general election race. Romney has some establishment support within the Republican Party, perhaps even similar to what McCain enjoyed in 2008. However, Romney looked good heading into the 2008 primary season too only to fall by the wayside once McCain was able to string together victories in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida heading into the pivotal Super Tuesday states. He will have to show a lot of establishment support if he wants to avoid that fate again.

2012 Presidential Trial Heat Polling (Obama v. Romney)
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Obama	Romney	Undecided
Politico [Internet]	July 9-14, 2010	+/- 3.1%	1011 likely voters	39	35	26
Public Policy Polling	July 9-12, 2010	+/- 3.8%	667 likely voters	43	46	11
Public Policy Polling	June 4-7, 2010	+/- 3.8%	650 likely voters	45	42	13
Public Policy Polling	May 7-9, 2010	+/- %	707 likely voters	46	44	11
Public Policy Polling	April 9-11, 2010	+/- 3.9%	622 likely voters	44	45	10
CNN	April 9-11, 2010	+/- 3.5%	907 reg. voters	53	45	--
Clarus Research	March 17-20, 2010	+/- 3%	1050 reg. voters	45	41	14
Public Policy Polling	March 12-14, 2010	+/- 2.6%	1403 likely voters	44	44	12
Harris [Internet]	March 10-12, 2010	+/- --%	2344 adults	46	39	15
Public Policy Polling	Feb. 13-15, 2010	+/- 3.5%	743 likely voters	45	43	12
Public Policy Polling	Jan. 18-19, 2010	+/- 2.8%	1151 likely voters	44	42	15
Public Policy Polling	Dec. 4-7, 2009	+/- 2.8%	1253 likely voters	47	42	12
Rasmussen	Nov. 24, 2009	+/- 3.5%	800 likely voters	44	44	5
Public Policy Polling	Nov. 13-15, 2009	+/- 3%	1066 likely voters	48	43	9
Public Policy Polling	Oct. 16-19, 2009	+/- 3.5%	766 likely voters	48	40	12
Public Policy Polling	Sept. 18-21, 2009	+/- 3.9%	621 likely voters	48	39	13
Clarus Research	Aug. 14-18, 2009	+/- 3.1%	1003 voters	47	38	15
Public Policy Polling	Aug. 14-17, 2009	+/- 3.3%	909 likely voters	47	40	12
Rasmussen	July 16-17, 2009	+/- 3%	1000 likely voters	45	45	3
Public Policy Polling	July 15-16, 2009	+/- 4.1%	577 likely voters	49	40	11
Public Policy Polling	June 12-16, 2009	+/- 3.9%	638 likely voters	48	40	12
Public Policy Polling	May 14-18, 2009	+/- 3.1%	1000 likely voters	53	35	12
Public Policy Polling	April 17-19, 2009	+/- 3.7%	686 likely voters	50	39	11
Average				46.3	41.18	--
Regression Average				42.97	43.04	--

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Obama v. Huckabee (2012 Trial Heats, July '10)

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On to Mike Huckabee.

How does the former Arkansas governor and 2008 presidential candidate fare against Obama? We are far removed from concerns over gubernatorial commutations of late 2009, but less distance is between those following the prospective 2012 race and talk of Huckabee sitting it out. Indeed, Huckabee has recently reminded those following the 2012 frivolities from this great distance that he does quite well in polls against the president in those hypothetical match ups. There is truth to that notion. The 2008 GOP nomination runner up has consistently been the best positioned Republican in most polls that survey him alongside Palin and Romney (and less frequently Gingrich) against Obama, yet one doesn't get the feeling that the elites within the Republican Party are all that enamored of Huckabee much less his chances for the nomination in 2012 or the general election against Obama. [In fact, Romney, among those named as 2012 possibilities, most strongly holds that distinction.]

Here, though, is Huckabee very closely matched against Obama in polls in 2009 and 2010. If you scroll below to the time series regression, it is evidence of a trend toward parity among the two men in a future race. Still, very much like Obama in 2006-2007, Huckabee is in the position of needing early primary/caucus wins in 2012 to legitimately enter the discussion. The establishment is not behind him like Romney, nor is there as much grassroots passion behind him as Palin commands. That is not a good combination despite good numbers. Unlike Romney, Huckabee cannot lean on the "I'm the better general election candidate" if it is a Palin-Huckabee argument. He doesn't have either of the establishment or grassroots pieces of the nomination puzzle. The former governor has to hope to catch lightning in a bottle again and win Iowa to force the issue.

2012 Presidential Trial Heat Polling (Obama v. Huckabee)
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Obama	Huckabee	Undecided
Politico [Internet]	July 9-14, 2010	+/- 3.1%	1011 likely voters	39	35	25
Public Policy Polling	July 9-12, 2010	+/- 3.8%	667 likely voters	45	47	8
Public Policy Polling	June 4-7, 2010	+/- 3.8%	650 likely voters	46	44	10
Public Policy Polling	May 7-9, 2010	+/- %	707 likely voters	46	45	8
Public Policy Polling	April 9-11, 2010	+/- 3.9%	622 likely voters	45	47	9
CNN	April 9-11, 2010	+/- 3.5%	907 reg. voters	54	45	--
Clarus Research	March 17-20, 2010	+/- 3%	1050 reg. voters	47	39	14
Public Policy Polling	March 12-14, 2010	+/- 2.6%	1403 likely voters	46	44	10
Public Policy Polling	Feb. 13-15, 2010	+/- 3.5%	743 likely voters	46	43	11
Public Policy Polling	Jan. 18-19, 2010	+/- 2.8%	1151 likely voters	44	45	11
Public Policy Polling	Dec. 4-7, 2009	+/- 2.8%	1253 likely voters	50	44	6
Rasmussen	Nov. 24, 2009	+/- 3.5%	800 likely voters	45	41	8
Public Policy Polling	Nov. 13-15, 2009	+/- 3%	1066 likely voters	49	44	7
Public Policy Polling	Oct. 16-19, 2009	+/- 3.5%	766 likely voters	47	43	10
Public Policy Polling	Sept. 18-21, 2009	+/- 3.9%	621 likely voters	48	41	11
Clarus Research	Aug. 14-18, 2009	+/- 3.1%	1003 voters	48	38	15
Public Policy Polling	Aug. 14-17, 2009	+/- 3.3%	909 likely voters	47	44	10
Public Policy Polling	July 15-16, 2009	+/- 4.1%	577 likely voters	48	42	10
Public Policy Polling	June 12-16, 2009	+/- 3.9%	638 likely voters	50	43	8
Public Policy Polling	May 14-18, 2009	+/- 3.1%	1000 likely voters	52	39	9
Public Policy Polling	April 17-19, 2009	+/- 3.7%	686 likely voters	49	42	9
Average				46.88	42.5	--
Regression Average				43.91	43.46	--

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Obama v. Palin (2012 Trial Heats, July '10)

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As FHQ has not updated its 2012 presidential trial heat poll graphics since December, there is a lot of catching up to do. And what better place to start than with the most talked about candidate, former Alaska governor Sarah Palin.

Let me make a few notes before diving in to all of this. First of all, I will spare you the mess of all the candidate data being dumped into one post by splitting this up into one post per candidate. We'll start with Palin and move on to the other candidates who have been surveyed multiple times in a hypothetical match ups against the president. I don't know whether I'll continue this practice in the future, but it makes sense in trying to synthesize all of the data from the first half of 2010. One addition I have made here is to add a table with all the past numbers included (dates, sample sizes, margin of error, etc.). [You'll find that at the conclusion of the post.] Such an inclusion likely works against the traditional -- all candidates in one -- presentation of the data if kept permanently (and I think it should be. There is too much data now not to.). The best course of action in future is likely to have timely breaking news-type updates when new polls are released followed by updated graphics for each candidate and finally a post discussing the trends across all candidates. That is how we will procede in the short term anyway.

There are a few other things to mention as well. Obviously, things are getting bunched up with so many polls having been conducted in the cases of some candidates. This is most problematic in terms of reporting the polling firms on the figure itself. It is really pronounced in the case of Obama v. Palin. I doubt this practice will be able to survive for much longer. FHQ is currently looking into some Flash- and Java-based alternatives that will allow users to simply hover over a data point on the graph and receive the attendant information. I'll keep you posted on that progress and in the meantime, if anyone has suggestions on how to do that relatively quickly and easily, please just drop a note in the comments section or shoot me an email.

And what of Obama and Palin?

For the sake of brevity, FHQ will confine this catch-up analysis to the overall trend throughout 2010. A poll-by-poll analysis eight months into the year seems like overkill. Public Policy Polling has surveyed this match up every month since March 2009 and as such is by far the most consistent player on the 2012 polling front. Palin has fairly regularly brought up the rear compared to the other three regulars (Gingrich, Huckabee and Romney) against Obama and yet, she, like the others has seen her share of respondents increase in 2010 as Obama's approval has declined. The one noticeable trend is that Palin does better in the PPP (and Rasmussen) surveys than she does in polls conducted by other firms. That is likely to elicit the classic robo-call versus live (phone) interview debate among some, but with so few polls from other outlets, FHQ will simply rate it as something to keep tabs on in the future. Palin's PPP presence has shifted from consistently in the 30s in 2009 to consistently in the 40s in 2010. Other firms are more likely to find her in the 30s in 2010.

The bottom line in this hypothetical match up is that Obama stays closer to 50% against Palin than he does against any of the other regular GOP names in the presidential race. I'll dispense with the straight averages comparison -- it is included in the table below -- but will mention the regression time series. Taking that trend into consideration, Obama leads Palin 49-41. That is all well and good, but none of this particularly matters until and unless the Republican nomination race in 2012 boils down to a two person race where general election electability becomes the argument a la Obama v. Clinton in 2008.

2012 Presidential Trial Heat Polling (Obama v. Palin)
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Obama	Palin	Undecided
Politico [Internet]	July 9-14, 2010	+/- 3.1%	1011 likely voters	48	36	16
Time	July 12-13, 2010	+/- --%	1003 adults/873 r.v.	55	34	4
Public Policy Polling	July 9-12, 2010	+/- 3.8%	667 likely voters	46	46	9
Public Policy Polling	June 4-7, 2010	+/- 3.8%	650 likely voters	50	41	9
Public Policy Polling	May 7-9, 2010	+/- %	707 likely voters	50	43	6
Public Policy Polling	April 9-11, 2010	+/- 3.9%	622 likely voters	47	45	7
CNN	April 9-11, 2010	+/- 3.5%	907 reg. voters	55	42	--
Clarus Research	March 17-20, 2010	+/- 3%	1050 reg. voters	52	34	14
Public Policy Polling	March 12-14, 2010	+/- 2.6%	1403 likely voters	49	41	10
Harris [Internet]	March 10-12, 2010	+/- --%	2344 adults	52	35	13
Public Policy Polling	Feb. 13-15, 2010	+/- 3.5%	743 likely voters	50	43	7
Public Policy Polling	Jan. 18-19, 2010	+/- 2.8%	1151 likely voters	49	41	9
Public Policy Polling	Dec. 4-7, 2009	+/- 2.8%	1253 likely voters	50	44	6
Rasmussen	Nov. 24, 2009	+/- 3.5%	800 likely voters	46	43	3
Public Policy Polling	Nov. 13-15, 2009	+/- 3%	1066 likely voters	51	43	5
Public Policy Polling	Oct. 16-19, 2009	+/- 3.5%	766 likely voters	52	40	8
Public Policy Polling	Sept. 18-21, 2009	+/- 3.9%	621 likely voters	53	38	9
Clarus Research	Aug. 14-18, 2009	+/- 3.1%	1003 voters	53	34	13
Public Policy Polling	Aug. 14-17, 2009	+/- 3.3%	909 likely voters	52	38	10
Marist	Aug. 3-6, 2009	+/- 5%	854 reg. voters	56	33	11
Rasmussen	July 16-17, 2009	+/- 3%	1000 likely voters	48	42	3
Public Policy Polling	July 15-16, 2009	+/- 4.1%	577 likely voters	51	43	6
Public Policy Polling	June 12-16, 2009	+/- 3.9%	638 likely voters	52	40	8
Public Policy Polling	May 14-18, 2009	+/- 3.1%	1000 likely voters	56	37	7
Public Policy Polling	April 17-19, 2009	+/- 3.7%	686 likely voters	53	41	6
Public Policy Polling	March 13-15, 2009	+/- 3.7%	691 likely voters	55	35	10
Average				51.2	39.54	--
Regression Average				49.11	40.51	--

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PPP: 2012 Trial Heats (July '10): GOP Candidates Sweep Past Obama

Public Policy Polling [pdf] today released the numbers on their monthly national survey on the 2012 presidential election. From all indications, President Obama is losing independents; something that has been seen in recent approval numbers as well. Obama trails (Gingrich, Huckabee, Romney) or ties (Palin) all four of the major Republican candidates.

Here's the breakdown:

Obama: 45

Gingrich: 46

Not sure: 9

Obama: 45

Huckabee: 47

Not sure: 8

Obama: 46

Palin: 46

Not sure: 9

Obama: 43

Romney: 46

Not sure: 11

Tom Jensen puts the numbers in perspective well at the conclusion of his post on the poll:

Obviously 2012 is a long ways off and the immediate relevance of these numbers is limited. It's possible we'll look back on polls like this 28 months from now after Obama's been reelected and laugh. But it's also possible that we'll look back on the summer of 2010 after he's been defeated and see it as the time when his prospects for reelection really took a turn for the worse. For now there's really no way to tell.

No way to tell indeed, but those traditional indicators of presidential electoral success -- presidential approval and the economy -- certainly aren't hurting the GOP's prospects at the moment.

[Note: I hope to have an update of the monthly graphs up sometime this evening, but if not, they'll be up in the morning. As I mentioned on Twitter yesterday, FHQ is woefully behind on those figures. Rest assured, it is on our To-Do list.]

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