After a work week that saw polling releases reach a brisk pace, Friday added just one new survey to the mix here at FHQ. And although all of those polls triggered a number of changes to the projections here, the week ends as it began: with Biden projected to hit 270 electoral votes on just his Strong and Lean states. Beyond that, the former vice president can currently count four toss up states as insulation between him and President Trump as July comes to a close.
Polling Quick Hits:
Minnesota (Biden 52, Trump 42):
One of the changes earlier in the week was Minnesota shifting from a Strong to a Lean Biden state based on a tighter than average survey from Trafalgar Group that had Trump at his peak in the Land of 10,000 Lakes polling in 2020. And if that survey was more toward the president than has been typical then Public Policy Polling's first foray into Minnesota during calendar 2020 is more toward the other end of the spectrum. It finds Biden near his highwater mark support in the polling of the state and running a couple of points ahead of his FHQ average share of support. Trump, on the other hand, came in right on his average share of support. Regardless, Minnesota is state that narrowly went for Clinton in 2016, but finds Biden north of 50 percent in his average given the polling to this point in the race.
NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
HI-42
(7)
|
NJ-14
(173)
|
WI-10
NE CD2-1
(253)
|
AK-3
(125)
|
TN-11
(56)
|
MA-11
(18)
|
OR-7
(180)
|
PA-203
(273 | 285)
|
MO-10
(122)
|
NE-2
(45)
|
CA-55
(73)
|
DE-3
(183)
|
FL-29
(302 | 265)
|
SC-9
(112)
|
AL-9
(43)
|
VT-3
(76)
|
CO-9
(192)
|
NV-6
(308 | 236)
|
MT-3
(103)
|
ID-4
(34)
|
NY-29
(105)
|
NM-5
(197)
|
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
|
UT-6
(100)
|
ND-3
(30)
|
WA-12
(117)
|
ME-2
(199)
|
NC-15
(334 | 219)
|
LA-8
NE CD1-1
(94)
|
KY-8
(27)
|
MD-10
(127)
|
VA-13
(212)
|
OH-18
(204)
|
MS-6
(85)
|
SD-3
(19)
|
IL-20
(147)
|
MN-10
(222)
|
GA-16
(186)
|
IN-11
(79)
|
OK-7
(16)
|
RI-4
ME CD1-1
(152)
|
MI-16
(238)
|
TX-38
(170)
|
AR-6
(68)
|
WV-5
(9)
|
CT-7
(159)
|
NH-4
(242)
|
IA-6
ME CD2-1
(132)
|
KS-6
(62)
|
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. | ||||
This latest Minnesota survey did little to dislodge the state from its position as the Lean Biden state closest to the Strong/Lean line on the Biden side of the Electoral College Spectrum above. But it also is did not nudge it much closer to being added to the Watch List below. Minnesota remains worth tracking because of how close it was four years ago on election day, but there are other more competitive states and number of other underpolled states that deserve some updated data more than Minnesota.
Speaking of underpolled, another week has passed without anything new out Nevada.
--
There were also no new polls from Nevada today.
Days since the last Nevada poll was in the field: 92.
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NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Potential Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
from Toss Up Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
Georgia
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
Indiana
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Louisiana
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Mississippi
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Missouri
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Nebraska CD1
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Nebraska CD2
|
from Lean Biden
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Biden
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
Utah
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Virginia
|
from Strong Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
Wisconsin
|
from Lean Biden
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
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Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.
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Related posts:
Draft Resolution Would Largely Extend 2020 Democratic Nomination Rules to 2024
The Electoral College Map (7/29/20)
The Electoral College Map (7/28/20)
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