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Showing posts with label Maryland. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Maryland. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 14, 2023
Maryland Presidential Primary Move Passes State Senate
Friday, March 10, 2023
UPDATED: Maryland Bills Would Resolve Presidential Primary Conflict with Passover...
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Tuesday, February 28, 2023
Maryland Legislative Leaders Signal Presidential Primary Change is Forthcoming
Last week, Baltimore leaders called for legislative action to resolve a conflict between the 2024 presidential primary in Maryland and the observance of Passover. This week, the leaders of the General Assembly in the Old Line state responded.
In a joint statement House Speaker Adrienne Jones (D-10th, Baltimore) and Senate President Bill Ferguson (D-46th, Baltimore City) said:
"As State leaders and as legislators, we have been intentional in our effort to pass election laws and create policies that remove barriers to voting. A primary election date that unintentionally coincides with the Passover holiday would prevent thousands of Marylanders from engaging in their fundamental right to vote. We will work with the State Board of Elections and local election officials to find a more appropriate date."
Maryland danced around spring holidays in 2016 as well, and may not be the only state with a primary at the end of April that explores a change for 2024.
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Sunday, February 26, 2023
Late April Primaries Will Conflict with Passover in 2024
Baltimore officials are calling on the Maryland General Assembly to change the date of the 2024 presidential primary in the Old Line state. The April 23 date conflicts with the Passover holiday.
Such is the peril of scheduling spring primaries. But some states have shifted elections around in the past to avoid these sorts of conflicts while others have not. Maryland, in fact, made a double move during the 2016 cycle, originally proposing a one-week delay to avoid Easter in early April and then an even later push with Passover during the following week. However, Maryland was not the only state. Hawaii, Louisiana, New York and Wyoming have all scheduled around holidays in the last three cycles.
Of course, Maryland is not alone in holding a presidential primary on April 23 in 2024 as of now. Delaware, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island also have contests occupying that slot on the calendar. The Connecticut primary is also scheduled in the Passover window on April 30. Similar efforts in those states may be forthcoming. Yet, all four conducted primaries in 2016 that overlapped with the observance of Passover. And Maryland did too during that cycle. The amendment was added to the one-week delay proposal because that would have put the certification process for the primary at odds with the holiday. Election officials would have had to work during the holiday.
There is already active legislation to move the Pennsylvania primary into March, but the motivation there is merely to hold an earlier contest. One of the byproducts of that change would be that the primary in the Keystone state would avoid the holiday conflict. Another bill in New York would schedule the presidential primary in the Empire state for that same fourth Tuesday in April date, in the Passover window.
But it remains to be seen if legislation will come forward elsewhere to alter primary dates in any of the other states with conflicts.
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Recent posts:
Tuesday, October 27, 2020
The Electoral College Map (10/27/20)
Update for October 27.
Anyway, there is a lot to look at today, so on to the polls...
Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona
(Biden 49, Trump 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +2.88]
The update from OH Predictive in Arizona maintains the status quo in the series. Earlier this month, the firm pegged the presidential race in the Grand Canyon state at Biden, 49-45. Trump gained a point, then, but this latest survey is consistent with all of the polls in the series since July with the exception of the outlier OH Predictive survey that had Biden ahead by ten points.
California
(Biden 65, Trump 29)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +29.56]
Further west in California, the race for the biggest electoral vote prize looks as predictable as it has in most recent cycles. Biden has the edge in the latest UC-Berkeley poll, but this one dies represent a slight contraction from the 67-28 lead the former vice president held in the mid-September survey of the Golden state. What is perhaps most interesting is that after the addition of this poll, the FHQ average in the state stood at Biden 61-32. That represent almost no swing from election day 2016 (Clinton won 62-32 in California.) to 2020 polling
Further west in California, the race for the biggest electoral vote prize looks as predictable as it has in most recent cycles. Biden has the edge in the latest UC-Berkeley poll, but this one dies represent a slight contraction from the 67-28 lead the former vice president held in the mid-September survey of the Golden state. What is perhaps most interesting is that after the addition of this poll, the FHQ average in the state stood at Biden 61-32. That represent almost no swing from election day 2016 (Clinton won 62-32 in California.) to 2020 polling
Florida
(Biden 50, Trump 48 via Florida Atlantic | Trump 49, Biden 44 via Susquehanna)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.12]
The pair of polls out of the Sunshine state today both shifted in Trump's direction since the last surveys in their respective series. Biden retained the lead in FAU poll, but saw his advantage cut in half since the last poll earlier this month. However, the new poll pushes back toward the tie the university pollsters found in early September. The former vice president led in the last Susquehanna poll as well, but that three point advantage in late September disappeared in the interim period and was replaced by this latest Trump +5 survey. And while 49 percent is toward the top of the president's range in his adopted home state, Biden's 44 percent share is unusual. The former vice president has dipped below 45 percent in Florida polls in 2020, but in 102 surveys of the Sunshine state this year, it has only happened four times. That makes this one an outlier.
Georgia
(Biden 51, Trump 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +0.25]
Florida was hardly the only place where Biden ended up a bit far afield of his normal range. But in the new Civiqs update, the Democratic nominee's share ran ahead of his established average here at FHQ rather than behind it as in the Susquehanna survey of Florida. Currently, the FHQ average in the Peach state sits at a 47-47 tie, and the last two iterations of the Civiqs polls have tended to have Biden not only ahead, but topping 50 percent. In the 32 polls conducted in Georgia since the beginning of September, Biden has been at or over 50 percent just six times. It happens, and far more frequently as compared to Georgia polling before September, but it is still not necessarily a common landing point for Biden. Still, this poll represents a two point swing toward Biden since the last poll -- Biden, 50-47 -- from Civiqs last month.
Indiana
(Trump 48, Biden 40)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +11.45]
The first publicly available Ragnar Research survey of Indiana in calendar 2020 finds Trump's support ebbing to its lowest level in the state all year. It is the Trump number, then, in this survey that is more off target, lagging about five points off the president's established average share at FHQ. As of now, the average in the Hoosier state has Trump out to a comfortable 53-41 advantage, which leaves Indiana about where the average swing from 2016 to the polling now. Biden has gained a couple of points on Clinton's showing there four years ago, and the president has trailed off by more than four points.
Iowa
(Biden 50, Trump 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.63]
There is perhaps a reason Joe Biden is heading to Iowa on Friday. Polls like the update from RABA Research in the state point toward a race that has not only narrowed during October, but has begun to favor the former vice president. Biden did lead 48-46 in the last RABA poll at the end of September and that edge has doubled since then with the Democratic nominee now topping 50 percent. That is a level that Biden has hit or surpassed in a quarter of the 12 surveys released this month in the Hawkeye state. Furthermore, he has been tied or ahead in ten of those 12 polls. As Biden has risen, Trump has stayed around a 47 percent average share of support in Iowa.
Kansas
(Trump 52, Biden 38)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +9.37]
Although it offered a very small sample -- just over 300 registered voters -- the Fort Hays State survey was on par with where the president has been both in other recent polls in the Sunflower state and in the FHQ average. But this is another poll where the Biden number was off the mark. Generally, the former vice president has outperformed the Clinton baseline from 2016 by six points, but this survey has him much closer to where Clinton ended up in Kansas four years ago. Kansas is still very much a red state at the high end of the Lean Trump category, but it is also a state with an above average swing toward the Democrats during this cycle. It is a ten point shift from election day 2016 to the polling in 2020 with Trump losing four points off his pace in that time.
Louisiana
(Trump 59, Biden 36)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +17.59]
Interestingly, the shift in Louisiana has been far less pronounced. Biden has run almost even with Clinton in the Pelican state while Trump lags just a couple of points behind his showing there. Of course, polling has not exactly been prevalent in Louisiana in calendar 2020, but the new University of New Orleans survey finds Trump toward his apex in Louisiana polling this year. Biden, meanwhile ends up at the bottom of his range. The end result is a poll that pushes the FHQ averages toward the 2016 finish in the state.
Maryland
(Biden 58, Trump 33)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +30.73]
Today's update is the first Gonzales Research survey of the Old Line state since May. And the underlying story the polls have collectively told is one of Biden falling short of 60 percent in Maryland. But the two polls in this series are the only ones to show that all year. And at Biden, 58-33, this poll is further off the 63-32 advantage the former vice president currently holds in the FHQ averages. That would represent a below average five point swing toward the Democrats since 2016 with Biden gaining nearly three points on Clinton and Trump losing two.
Today's update is the first Gonzales Research survey of the Old Line state since May. And the underlying story the polls have collectively told is one of Biden falling short of 60 percent in Maryland. But the two polls in this series are the only ones to show that all year. And at Biden, 58-33, this poll is further off the 63-32 advantage the former vice president currently holds in the FHQ averages. That would represent a below average five point swing toward the Democrats since 2016 with Biden gaining nearly three points on Clinton and Trump losing two.
Michigan
(Biden 53, Trump 43)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.16]
Yet another update to the Ipsos series in the Great Lakes state finds Biden incrementally adding to his 52-44 lead from a week ago. But that is both a small change and one that is in line with where Ipsos has had the race in Michigan over the last two months. However, while the margin in this survey falls outside of the Biden +6-9 point range into which the bulk of Michigan surveys have recently fallen, it is yet another poll with the former vice president at or over 50 percent. And his FHQ average share of support continues to track toward 50 percent as well.
Yet another update to the Ipsos series in the Great Lakes state finds Biden incrementally adding to his 52-44 lead from a week ago. But that is both a small change and one that is in line with where Ipsos has had the race in Michigan over the last two months. However, while the margin in this survey falls outside of the Biden +6-9 point range into which the bulk of Michigan surveys have recently fallen, it is yet another poll with the former vice president at or over 50 percent. And his FHQ average share of support continues to track toward 50 percent as well.
Minnesota
(Biden 53, Trump 39)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +8.51]
Gravis Marketing was last in the field in Minnesota in June and had Biden out to a commanding 58-42 lead among a sample of registered voters. The switch to likely voters appears to have come with a less aggressive prompt of undecided voters and saw both candidates lose support as compared to the summer poll. But this was another poll in the Land of 10,000 Lakes with Biden north of 50 percent and President Trump continuing to hover in the low 40s. And ultimately the survey is not that far from the current FHQ average in Minnesota. The Democratic nominee now leads the president here 51-42. With a week to go, Minnesota does not appear to be the flip opportunity the president's reelection campaign came into the cycle envisioning.
Gravis Marketing was last in the field in Minnesota in June and had Biden out to a commanding 58-42 lead among a sample of registered voters. The switch to likely voters appears to have come with a less aggressive prompt of undecided voters and saw both candidates lose support as compared to the summer poll. But this was another poll in the Land of 10,000 Lakes with Biden north of 50 percent and President Trump continuing to hover in the low 40s. And ultimately the survey is not that far from the current FHQ average in Minnesota. The Democratic nominee now leads the president here 51-42. With a week to go, Minnesota does not appear to be the flip opportunity the president's reelection campaign came into the cycle envisioning.
Mississippi
(Trump 55, Biden 41)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +15.41]
Mississippi, like Louisiana above, is another Deep South state where the 2020 picture through the lens of the state-level polls looks quite similar to where the race ended in the Magnolia state in 2016. And the new Civiqs poll -- its first in Mississippi this calendar year -- is consistent with the current 55-40 Trump advantage in the FHQ averages. Both the poll and the averages find Biden in line with Clinton's showing in the state in 2016 as Trump is just more than two points off his mark from four years ago.
Montana
(Trump 49, Biden 47)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +7.80]
Not surprisingly, a Public Policy Polling survey that has Montana closer than it has been in any presidential poll of the state all year also has Biden at his peak level there. But the Trump side of the equation also contributes to that tight margin. The president has only been below 49 percent once all year, so this one is also at the bottom of his range in the Treasure state. Two weeks ago, PPP did not find the race as close. Then, Trump maintained a 52-46 advantage that is more in line with the 51-44 edge the president has in the FHQ averages.
Nevada
(Biden 50, Trump 41 via UNLV Lee Business School | Biden 49, Trump 43 via Siena/NYT Upshot)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +4.55]
The two new polls out of the Silver state today tell a similar story but took different routes in getting there. In the UNLV survey, Biden rose four points to 50 percent since the university pollsters September poll, and Trump held steady at 41 percent. That Biden around 50 percent and Trump in the low 40s outcome was also what Siena showed in Nevada, but that polls change since earlier this month was minimal. Biden tacked on an additional point, but here, too, Trump held pat. Both surveys depict a widening Biden lead that is a bit out in front of the FHQ averages in the Silver state. Here Biden is ahead 49-44.
The two new polls out of the Silver state today tell a similar story but took different routes in getting there. In the UNLV survey, Biden rose four points to 50 percent since the university pollsters September poll, and Trump held steady at 41 percent. That Biden around 50 percent and Trump in the low 40s outcome was also what Siena showed in Nevada, but that polls change since earlier this month was minimal. Biden tacked on an additional point, but here, too, Trump held pat. Both surveys depict a widening Biden lead that is a bit out in front of the FHQ averages in the Silver state. Here Biden is ahead 49-44.
North Carolina
(Biden 51, Trump 47 via Public Policy Polling | Biden 49, Trump 48 via Ipsos | Biden 48, Trump 47 via RMG Research | Biden 48, Trump 48 via Survey USA)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.80]
Tuesday was another day that witnessed a rash of poll releases in the Tar Heel state. And all operated within a pretty tight range. Biden led in three of the four surveys, and they all overstate both candidates' support relative the 48-46 edge the former vice president continues to hold in North Carolina. But all four poll have margins that are on par with that Biden +2 lead at FHQ. Both the PPP and Ipsos updates were in line with their surveys out earlier this month. Nether candidate shifted more than a point in either. The RMG Research poll was barely any different, but found Trump moving up two points and drawing the Biden advantage in the last poll down to just a point. The largest change was in the Survey USA poll. But even that was indicative of a regression to the mean from an outlier than anything else. The Democratic nominee's 50-45 lead from early October disappeared and was replaced with a tie that was a return to what the race in North Carolina looked like in the firm's September poll. There may have been a lot of new surveys out of North Carolina today, but they all pointed toward a pretty steady race there. As FHQ has said, North Carolina is close (and has been), but is still consistently tipped the former vice president's way.
Tuesday was another day that witnessed a rash of poll releases in the Tar Heel state. And all operated within a pretty tight range. Biden led in three of the four surveys, and they all overstate both candidates' support relative the 48-46 edge the former vice president continues to hold in North Carolina. But all four poll have margins that are on par with that Biden +2 lead at FHQ. Both the PPP and Ipsos updates were in line with their surveys out earlier this month. Nether candidate shifted more than a point in either. The RMG Research poll was barely any different, but found Trump moving up two points and drawing the Biden advantage in the last poll down to just a point. The largest change was in the Survey USA poll. But even that was indicative of a regression to the mean from an outlier than anything else. The Democratic nominee's 50-45 lead from early October disappeared and was replaced with a tie that was a return to what the race in North Carolina looked like in the firm's September poll. There may have been a lot of new surveys out of North Carolina today, but they all pointed toward a pretty steady race there. As FHQ has said, North Carolina is close (and has been), but is still consistently tipped the former vice president's way.
Pennsylvania
(Biden 52, Trump 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.39]
The steadiness of the North Carolina polls is mirrored in the Civiqs series in the Keystone state. All three October surveys from the firm have had Biden stable at 52 percent and Trump firmly entrenched in the mid-40s. While that overstates the former vice president's support compared to the FHQ averages (Biden, 50-44), Trump's position in the October Civiqs polls has been proximate to his average. But again, one would expect polls to increasingly overstate the averages here at FHQ as more and more undecideds come off the board. The bottom line is that this is another Pennsylvania survey with Biden above 50 percent in Lean Biden state where he is closing in on 50 percent in the averages.
The steadiness of the North Carolina polls is mirrored in the Civiqs series in the Keystone state. All three October surveys from the firm have had Biden stable at 52 percent and Trump firmly entrenched in the mid-40s. While that overstates the former vice president's support compared to the FHQ averages (Biden, 50-44), Trump's position in the October Civiqs polls has been proximate to his average. But again, one would expect polls to increasingly overstate the averages here at FHQ as more and more undecideds come off the board. The bottom line is that this is another Pennsylvania survey with Biden above 50 percent in Lean Biden state where he is closing in on 50 percent in the averages.
South Carolina
(Trump 51, Biden 44)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +6.74]
Last but not least, Starboard Communications conducted its first survey of the Palmetto state in calendar 2020. And while it shifted things ever so slightly in the president's direction, it fell right on the 51-44 advantage that Trump currently holds in the FHQ averages. If that is what South Carolina looks like on election next week, then it would represent about a seven point swing toward the Democrats since 2016. That is consistent with the average shift calculated across all states.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
DC-3
VT-3
(6)2
|
IL-20
(162)
|
WI-10
(253)
| AK-3
(125)
|
TN-11
(60)
|
MA-11
(17)
| OR-7
(169)
|
PA-203
(273 | 285)
| MO-10
(122)
|
KY-8
(49)
|
MD-10
(27)
| NJ-14
(183)
|
NV-6
(279 | 265)
| SC -9
(112)
| SD-3
(41)
|
HI-4
(31)
|
ME-2
(185)
|
FL-29
(308 | 259)
| MT-3 NE CD1-1
(103)
| AL-9
(38)
|
NY-29
(60)
|
CO-9
(194)
|
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
| KS-6
(99)
|
ID-4
(29)
|
CA-55
(115)
|
VA-13
(207)
|
NC-15
ME CD2-1
(335 | 219)
| NE-2
(93)
|
AR-6
(25)
|
DE-3
(118)
|
NH-4
(211)
|
GA-16
(351 | 203)
|
IN-11
(91)
|
OK-7
(19)
|
WA-12
(130)
|
NM-5
(216)
| IA-6
(187)
|
UT-6
(80)
|
ND-3
(12)
|
ME CD1-1
CT-7
(138)
|
MN-10
(226)
| OH-18
(181)
|
MS-6
(74)
|
WV-5
(9)
|
RI-4
(142)
| NE CD2-1
MI-16
(243)
|
TX-38
(163)
|
LA-8
(68)
|
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is. | ||||
All that polling data and nary a big change to speak of. Instead, it was all subtle changes -- minimal movement in the margins -- that marked Tuesday. With a week left in the voting phase of the campaign, the map remained Biden 351-187 in the electoral vote tally, and the order stayed exactly the same as it was a day ago. However, the Watch List welcomed Kansas back after it recently left. The Sunflower state is now within a point of shifting into the Strong Trump category from the Lean Trump group of states. This race is steady as she goes in the polls as filtered through the FHQ graduated weighted average.
7 days to go.
Where things stood at FHQ on October 27 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008
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NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Potential Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Georgia
|
from Toss Up Biden
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Iowa
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
Kansas
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Strong Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
New Mexico
|
from Strong Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Biden
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
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Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.
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Related posts:
Thursday, October 8, 2020
The Electoral College Map (10/8/20)
Update for October 8.
With the vice presidential now behind it and next week's resumption among the presidential nominees up for, well, debate, the 2020 presidential race carried on to another day. And while there were fewer new surveys to look at as compared to a day ago, there were still a number of polls to examine from an array of states. In fact, there was a poll released from a state in every FHQ category but the Strong Trump states.
But Montana, the one state on today's list that is closest to the Strong Trump category is a microcosm of sorts for the overall state of this contest currently. The president won the Treasure state by over 20 points in 2016 and is likely to win there again in November. But the margin is nothing now like it was four years ago. Trump is more than four points behind his 2016 showing in Montana while Biden is approaching an eight point improvement over Clinton's pace there. That swing is well above the average shift toward the Democrats since 2017 (currently +6.77 in the Democrats' direction), but it is indicative of the erosion in support the president has suffered to the point, just 26 days ahead of November 3.
On to the day's state-level surveys...
Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona
(Biden 48, Trump 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.20]
Arizona and Florida polls have really proliferated during this work week and today is not without one from each. The latest Arizona poll from Latino Decisions is fairly consistent with the current FHQ average shares of support for both major party candidates. Actually, once those averages are rounded, the two match exactly with Biden up 48-45. But it should be noted that this is a contraction of the margin since Latino Decisions was last in the field in the Grand Canyon state. Then, in a March poll of registered voters, Biden led 50-42. Time and the transition to a likely voter screen have benefited the president, but only enough to get him back to an average position, one still trailing the former vice president.
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.20]
Arizona and Florida polls have really proliferated during this work week and today is not without one from each. The latest Arizona poll from Latino Decisions is fairly consistent with the current FHQ average shares of support for both major party candidates. Actually, once those averages are rounded, the two match exactly with Biden up 48-45. But it should be noted that this is a contraction of the margin since Latino Decisions was last in the field in the Grand Canyon state. Then, in a March poll of registered voters, Biden led 50-42. Time and the transition to a likely voter screen have benefited the president, but only enough to get him back to an average position, one still trailing the former vice president.
Florida
(Biden 50, Trump 44)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.52]
Saint Leo University similarly had an update in Florida to a poll from back in the winter. Biden led handily in that February survey and has seen the gap close in the time since. Still, this poll fits in well with many of the recent surveys that have the former vice president up in the four to six point range in the Sunshine state in the wake of the first presidential debate and the president's positive Covid test. And those surveys are collectively only making the Trump campaign's job that much harder. The FHQ average margin in Florida is tracking back up again, back toward that Lean/Toss Up line.
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.52]
Saint Leo University similarly had an update in Florida to a poll from back in the winter. Biden led handily in that February survey and has seen the gap close in the time since. Still, this poll fits in well with many of the recent surveys that have the former vice president up in the four to six point range in the Sunshine state in the wake of the first presidential debate and the president's positive Covid test. And those surveys are collectively only making the Trump campaign's job that much harder. The FHQ average margin in Florida is tracking back up again, back toward that Lean/Toss Up line.
Maryland
(Biden 61, Trump 30)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +31.63]
Another day brings another poll out of Maryland. Today's Goucher College survey of the Old Line state resembles -- almost mirrors -- the poll from Change Research a day ago. Together both paint a picture of a steady race for Maryland's ten electoral votes, one that has shifted a bit over seven points toward the Democrats since 2016.
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +31.63]
Another day brings another poll out of Maryland. Today's Goucher College survey of the Old Line state resembles -- almost mirrors -- the poll from Change Research a day ago. Together both paint a picture of a steady race for Maryland's ten electoral votes, one that has shifted a bit over seven points toward the Democrats since 2016.
Minnesota
(Biden 47, Trump 40)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +8.41]
Speaking of steady, the Survey USA update in Minnesota found modest narrowing since the firm's last survey there in early September. The good news for the president in a state that his campaign has often targeted as a flip opportunity is that Biden dropped a couple of points over the last month. But the bad news is that Trump remained stuck at 40 percent. That consistency casts further doubt on the prospects that Minnesota would turn red in November, but the small silver lining is that is that the 40 percent share does run a bit below Trump's average share of support in the state at FHQ (42 percent).
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +8.41]
Speaking of steady, the Survey USA update in Minnesota found modest narrowing since the firm's last survey there in early September. The good news for the president in a state that his campaign has often targeted as a flip opportunity is that Biden dropped a couple of points over the last month. But the bad news is that Trump remained stuck at 40 percent. That consistency casts further doubt on the prospects that Minnesota would turn red in November, but the small silver lining is that is that the 40 percent share does run a bit below Trump's average share of support in the state at FHQ (42 percent).
Montana
(Trump 56, Biden 44 via Emerson | Trump 49, Biden 43 via Data for Progress)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +8.93]
FHQ led with Montana in the introduction above, but if the pair of polls from the Treasure state do anything it is to shed some light on where Biden stands there: in the low to mid-40s. And while that is improvement of nearly eight points on Clinton in 2016, it still trails even the worst case scenario for Trump in Montana. And the Data for Progress poll is a good stand in for that worst case scenario. The president has been lower than 49 percent in Montana polling of the presidential race this year, but it is definitely toward the lower end of his range there. And even though the Emerson update has Trump expanding his advantage, just averaging his share of support in both these polls comes pretty close to where his established FHQ average level of support currently rests.
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +8.93]
FHQ led with Montana in the introduction above, but if the pair of polls from the Treasure state do anything it is to shed some light on where Biden stands there: in the low to mid-40s. And while that is improvement of nearly eight points on Clinton in 2016, it still trails even the worst case scenario for Trump in Montana. And the Data for Progress poll is a good stand in for that worst case scenario. The president has been lower than 49 percent in Montana polling of the presidential race this year, but it is definitely toward the lower end of his range there. And even though the Emerson update has Trump expanding his advantage, just averaging his share of support in both these polls comes pretty close to where his established FHQ average level of support currently rests.
North Carolina
(Biden 51, Trump 44)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.59]
At first glance the new Data for Progress survey of North Carolina looks a bit like an outlier. Biden has had seven point leads in the Tar Heel state in calendar 2020, but they tend to be few and far between and at the very extreme end of the range. Things look different in the context of the earlier DfP poll in the Old North State. In that early August poll Biden held a 49-45 edge, a lead that was on the realistic (Biden) end of the range at the time in a state that has proven to have been close throughout the year while still being ever so slightly tipped in the former vice president's direction. Time will tell whether this survey is realistically at the new top of the range of margins in North Carolina, but for now this looks like an overly rosy picture of the state of the race from a Democratic-aligned pollster.
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.59]
At first glance the new Data for Progress survey of North Carolina looks a bit like an outlier. Biden has had seven point leads in the Tar Heel state in calendar 2020, but they tend to be few and far between and at the very extreme end of the range. Things look different in the context of the earlier DfP poll in the Old North State. In that early August poll Biden held a 49-45 edge, a lead that was on the realistic (Biden) end of the range at the time in a state that has proven to have been close throughout the year while still being ever so slightly tipped in the former vice president's direction. Time will tell whether this survey is realistically at the new top of the range of margins in North Carolina, but for now this looks like an overly rosy picture of the state of the race from a Democratic-aligned pollster.
South Carolina
(Trump 49, Biden 44)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +6.10]
Across the southern border in the Palmetto state, another partisan pollster, GBAO, found Trump up just five points in the typically reliably red state. Now, South Carolina, like Montana, is likely to stay in the Republican's column in November unless the bottom truly drops out for the president. But unlike the Data for Progress poll of North Carolina above, this survey is at least in the heart of the mid- to upper single digit leads Trump has held in South Carolina polling all year. In fact, GBAO nails Biden's share of support here and is only marginally below Trump's average share of support here at FHQ. But Trump is only barely cracking 50 percent in the averages and that says much about the state of the race for South Carolina's nine electoral votes.
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +6.10]
Across the southern border in the Palmetto state, another partisan pollster, GBAO, found Trump up just five points in the typically reliably red state. Now, South Carolina, like Montana, is likely to stay in the Republican's column in November unless the bottom truly drops out for the president. But unlike the Data for Progress poll of North Carolina above, this survey is at least in the heart of the mid- to upper single digit leads Trump has held in South Carolina polling all year. In fact, GBAO nails Biden's share of support here and is only marginally below Trump's average share of support here at FHQ. But Trump is only barely cracking 50 percent in the averages and that says much about the state of the race for South Carolina's nine electoral votes.
Texas
(Biden 47, Trump 45 via Data for Progress | Trump 51, Biden 44 via Pulse Opinion Research)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.67]
Finally, in the Lone Star state a pair of new polls tell widely divergent stories of the battle there. The latest in the series of surveys Data for Progress has conducted in Texas continues to show a tight race for the 38 electoral votes on the line there. But in this one Biden has pulled back into the lead in a poll that looks a lot like the August poll from the firm than the September one where Trump held the narrow edge. If that is on the optimistic side of things for the Biden campaign (and it is but not nearly to the same extent as the North Carolina poll), then the Pulse survey is not. Rare have the Trump +7 polls been in Texas, but this one is not clearly an outlier. It just has Biden toward the low end of his range of support and Trump at the top of his. All of that aside, even if one were to average just these two surveys, then rounded 48-46 Trump edge is in line with the average shares of support the two candidates currently have at FHQ. Texas, like North Carolina, is close. But Texas, unlike North Carolina, is consistently tipped in president's direction. As persistently as North Carolina has been in Biden's column, Texas has been the equivalent on the Trump side.
Finally, in the Lone Star state a pair of new polls tell widely divergent stories of the battle there. The latest in the series of surveys Data for Progress has conducted in Texas continues to show a tight race for the 38 electoral votes on the line there. But in this one Biden has pulled back into the lead in a poll that looks a lot like the August poll from the firm than the September one where Trump held the narrow edge. If that is on the optimistic side of things for the Biden campaign (and it is but not nearly to the same extent as the North Carolina poll), then the Pulse survey is not. Rare have the Trump +7 polls been in Texas, but this one is not clearly an outlier. It just has Biden toward the low end of his range of support and Trump at the top of his. All of that aside, even if one were to average just these two surveys, then rounded 48-46 Trump edge is in line with the average shares of support the two candidates currently have at FHQ. Texas, like North Carolina, is close. But Texas, unlike North Carolina, is consistently tipped in president's direction. As persistently as North Carolina has been in Biden's column, Texas has been the equivalent on the Trump side.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
DC-3
VT-3
(6)2
|
IL-20
(162)
|
WI-10
(253)
|
SC-9
(125)
|
TN-11
(60)
|
MA-11
(17)
|
NJ-14
(176)
|
PA-203
(273 | 285)
| MO-10
(116)
|
KY-8
(49)
|
MD-10
(27)
|
OR-7
(183)
|
NV-6
(279 | 265)
| AK-3
(116)
|
AL-9
(41)
|
CA-55
(82)
|
ME-2
(185)
|
FL-29
(308 | 259)
|
KS-6
(103)
|
SD-3
(32)
|
NY-29
(111)
|
CO-9
(194)
|
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
|
NE CD1-1
MT-3
(97) |
ID-4
(29)
|
HI-4
(115)
|
VA-13
(207)
|
NC-15
ME CD2-1
(335 | 219)
|
NE-2
(93)
|
AR-6
(25)
|
DE-3
(118)
|
NH-4
(211)
|
GA-16
(203)
|
IN-11
(91)
|
OK-7
(19)
|
WA-12
(130)
|
NM-5
(216)
|
OH-18
(187)
|
UT-6
(80)
|
ND-3
(12)
|
ME CD1-1
CT-7
(138)
|
MN-10
(226)
|
IA-6
(169)
|
MS-6
(74)
|
WV-5
(9)
|
RI-4
(142)
|
MI-16
NE CD2-1
(243)
|
TX-38
(163)
|
LA-8
(68)
|
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is. | ||||
Ten new polls across eight states from across the Spectrum did little to shake up what has been a pretty steady race. The map tally remains stuck at 335-203 in Biden's favor and the order of states on the Electoral College Spectrum was unchanged with Pennsylvania as the tipping point (but with four states and Maine's second as insurance between it and the partisan line). Trump still has his work cut out for him with 26 days to go and no noticeable progress made in the last 24 hours to right the ship on the campaign trail or in the polls. And there is no real apparent relief on the Watch List where the two states closest to altering the electoral vote tally -- Georgia and Ohio -- are close to jumping the partisan line into Biden's coalition of states. This may or may not be the nadir for the Trump campaign in 2020, but one thing is for sure: time is running out to dig out of the hole the president is in.
Where things stood at FHQ on October 8 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008
--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Potential Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Georgia
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Strong Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
New Mexico
|
from Strong Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Biden
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.
--
Related posts:
Wednesday, October 7, 2020
The Electoral College Map (10/7/20)
Update for October 7.
And honestly, that is to be expected with the graduated weighted average that FHQ has utilized for four presidential election cycles now. If a race is steady like 2012 was (and to some lesser degree 2020 is), then the average will guard against any wild fluctuations created by temporary polling changes. It was around this time in 2012 that Romney slipped into the lead in national polls. But at FHQ the projection never changed. Florida got close to switching into Romney territory after that first debate, but never quite did and stayed in Obama's column down the stretch.
Now, whether 2020 remains steady like 2012 remains an open question. What FHQ calls temporary polling changes above may not prove to be all that temporary. It could be evidence of the dam beginning to break on the president. But with 27 days until election day, there should be enough time and enough polling where it matters to bring the graduated weighted averages along. In the best case, things break late here, confirming any long term changes between now and election day. The worst case looks more like the misses in 2016, when the shift occurred late as a larger pool of undecideds broke and state-level polling never really reflected that.
In any event, the mantra around here with respect to the averages is that when a change occurs in the polling, it tends to create a lasting change in the averages.
On to the polls...
Polling Quick Hits:
Nevada
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.
There was so much to look at polling-wise on the day that debate season resumes. However, there was nary a change across the graphics at FHQ. The map and Watch List -- those states within a fraction of a point of changing categories -- remained exactly as they were yesterday. Only Missouri, on the strength of that new GHY survey, pushed past Alaska and closer to the partisan line separating both candidates coalitions of states. But that group of Alaska, Missouri and South Carolina are fairly tightly clustered on the lower end of the Lean Trump category, but just off the Watch List. None of the three are likely to fall to the Democrats unless the bottom truly drops out on Trump, but that Lean/Toss Up line on Trump's side is probably the cut off point. Texas is potentially achievable for Biden but it is the last state in the order that is likely to flip blue in November. That is not to say that Texas will or will not flip, but it is likely Biden's high water mark in a landslide scenario (again, unless the dam breaks on Trump).
Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona
Florida(Biden 48, Trump 43 via Data Orbital | Biden 48, Trump 46 via Ipsos)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.21]
Both Data Orbital and Ipsos conducted polls in Arizona in mid-September, but only the survey from Data Orbital saw any significant change in the time since then. While Biden remained steady, Trump share of support dropped off just below his average share of support at FHQ. But both of these surveys were on target on Biden's current average level of support in the state.
Both Data Orbital and Ipsos conducted polls in Arizona in mid-September, but only the survey from Data Orbital saw any significant change in the time since then. While Biden remained steady, Trump share of support dropped off just below his average share of support at FHQ. But both of these surveys were on target on Biden's current average level of support in the state.
(Biden 49, Trump 44 via Cherry Communications | Biden 51, Trump 40 via Quinnipiac | Biden 49, Trump 45 via Ipsos)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.48]
The Sunshine state saw a trio of releases on the day and all were from firms who had previously been in the field there. The attention is clearly going to gravitate toward the Quinnipiac survey where Biden grew his support while Trump saw his decline. But this latest Q-poll look a lot more like the survey the school released in July during Biden's polling surge. Does this hail a return to that? It may be a signal, but it could also be an outlier. That will not become clear until more polling is done. The trajectory of the movement in the other two surveys also moved in Biden's direction but in a much more muted way than through the Quinnipiac lens. Florida's average margin fell into the threes, but has plateaued there recently and may even be reversing course some.
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.48]
The Sunshine state saw a trio of releases on the day and all were from firms who had previously been in the field there. The attention is clearly going to gravitate toward the Quinnipiac survey where Biden grew his support while Trump saw his decline. But this latest Q-poll look a lot more like the survey the school released in July during Biden's polling surge. Does this hail a return to that? It may be a signal, but it could also be an outlier. That will not become clear until more polling is done. The trajectory of the movement in the other two surveys also moved in Biden's direction but in a much more muted way than through the Quinnipiac lens. Florida's average margin fell into the threes, but has plateaued there recently and may even be reversing course some.
Iowa
(Biden 48, Trump 47 via Civiqs | Biden 50, Trump 45 via Quinnipiac)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.10]
Further north in the Hawkeye state, the margin may still narrowly favor the president, butBiden led in a couple of new surveys. This is the first time that Quinnipiac has been in the field in Iowa, but it has the former vice president ahead by his largest margin there all cycle (minus a June Binder poll with only 200 respondents where Biden was up six). Like the Florida Q-poll above, this one should be taken with a grain of salt for the time being. It may be a harbinger of things to come, but could also just be overly rosy for the Democratic nominee. Civiqs had conducted an Iowa poll before and during June in the window of Biden's surge. The poll then was was a dead heat, and this latest one is as well, although Biden has the narrow edge. This one is more in line with where FHQ's averages have the race currently pegged,
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.10]
Further north in the Hawkeye state, the margin may still narrowly favor the president, butBiden led in a couple of new surveys. This is the first time that Quinnipiac has been in the field in Iowa, but it has the former vice president ahead by his largest margin there all cycle (minus a June Binder poll with only 200 respondents where Biden was up six). Like the Florida Q-poll above, this one should be taken with a grain of salt for the time being. It may be a harbinger of things to come, but could also just be overly rosy for the Democratic nominee. Civiqs had conducted an Iowa poll before and during June in the window of Biden's surge. The poll then was was a dead heat, and this latest one is as well, although Biden has the narrow edge. This one is more in line with where FHQ's averages have the race currently pegged,
Maryland
(Biden 61, Trump 32)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +31.72]
One could split hairs and say that the Change Research survey of Maryland was off the mark in understating Biden's share of support in the Old Line state, but it was only by a couple of points. Otherwise, this one looks a lot like where the race currently stands for Maryland's ten electoral votes.
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +31.72]
One could split hairs and say that the Change Research survey of Maryland was off the mark in understating Biden's share of support in the Old Line state, but it was only by a couple of points. Otherwise, this one looks a lot like where the race currently stands for Maryland's ten electoral votes.
Michigan
(Biden 51, Trump 43)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.10]
Ipsos was also in the field in Michigan for the first time since mid-September and found a race that had moved in Biden's direction but only modestly. The former vice president gained a couple of points to crack 50 percent again. That mark is important because it would close the door on the state's 16 electoral votes if Biden can get there on election day. Of the 16 polls conducted since that last Ipsos poll of the Great Lakes state, 12 have had the former vice president over the majority mark. Furthermore, he is approaching that level in the averages.
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.10]
Ipsos was also in the field in Michigan for the first time since mid-September and found a race that had moved in Biden's direction but only modestly. The former vice president gained a couple of points to crack 50 percent again. That mark is important because it would close the door on the state's 16 electoral votes if Biden can get there on election day. Of the 16 polls conducted since that last Ipsos poll of the Great Lakes state, 12 have had the former vice president over the majority mark. Furthermore, he is approaching that level in the averages.
Missouri
(Trump 50, Biden 48)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +6.37]
The only other time Garin-Hart-Yang were in the field in the Show-Me state was back in June. And although that falls in the period during Biden's rise in the polls across the country, it was also the only time in calendar 2020 that a survey had the Democratic nominee in the lead in Missouri. What was an outlier then is probably a little less so now. But this one still has Trump running just below his average there and Biden more than three points above his. Missouri has already shown to be be closer in 2020 than in 2016, but likely not this close.
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +6.37]
The only other time Garin-Hart-Yang were in the field in the Show-Me state was back in June. And although that falls in the period during Biden's rise in the polls across the country, it was also the only time in calendar 2020 that a survey had the Democratic nominee in the lead in Missouri. What was an outlier then is probably a little less so now. But this one still has Trump running just below his average there and Biden more than three points above his. Missouri has already shown to be be closer in 2020 than in 2016, but likely not this close.
(Biden 48, Trump 42)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.62]
Outside of the two Fox News polls, this Siena/NYT Upshot survey has Biden up by his largest margin in the Silver state in calendar 2020. But this one is also not all that inconsistent with the firm's September poll in underpolled Nevada. Biden's share of support rose by a couple of points to match his FHQ average share of support. The president, meanwhile, remained at 42 percent, lagging a couple of points behind his. The introduction of the four waves of Survey Monkey polls over the weekend took Nevada off the Watch List, but polls like these will have it tracking back in that direction.
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.62]
Outside of the two Fox News polls, this Siena/NYT Upshot survey has Biden up by his largest margin in the Silver state in calendar 2020. But this one is also not all that inconsistent with the firm's September poll in underpolled Nevada. Biden's share of support rose by a couple of points to match his FHQ average share of support. The president, meanwhile, remained at 42 percent, lagging a couple of points behind his. The introduction of the four waves of Survey Monkey polls over the weekend took Nevada off the Watch List, but polls like these will have it tracking back in that direction.
North Carolina
(Biden 47, Trump 47)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.51]
FHQ has gotten in the habit of saying North Carolina is close. And it is. This Ipsos poll does little to dislodge the Tar Heel state from that category. Nor does the fact that the race has been stable in the time since the firm's September poll of the state. A race knotted at 47 then is the same now. Neither diverges much from the 47-46 (rounded) advantage Biden consistently holds there.
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.51]
FHQ has gotten in the habit of saying North Carolina is close. And it is. This Ipsos poll does little to dislodge the Tar Heel state from that category. Nor does the fact that the race has been stable in the time since the firm's September poll of the state. A race knotted at 47 then is the same now. Neither diverges much from the 47-46 (rounded) advantage Biden consistently holds there.
Ohio
(Biden 45, Trump 44)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.40]
This is the first time Siena/NYT Upshot has ventured into the Buckeye state to gauge preferences in the race for the state's 18 electoral votes. What the firm found was a close race with Biden marginally ahead. That differs from the current margin that continues to show the president in the lead by a sliver of a point, and does so with both candidates running below their established FHQ average shares of support. But that is attributable to the still high number of undecideds, a common thread in these Siena polls conducted in conjunction with the Upshot. Despite that, this survey nudged Ohio a bit closer to the partisan line.
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.40]
This is the first time Siena/NYT Upshot has ventured into the Buckeye state to gauge preferences in the race for the state's 18 electoral votes. What the firm found was a close race with Biden marginally ahead. That differs from the current margin that continues to show the president in the lead by a sliver of a point, and does so with both candidates running below their established FHQ average shares of support. But that is attributable to the still high number of undecideds, a common thread in these Siena polls conducted in conjunction with the Upshot. Despite that, this survey nudged Ohio a bit closer to the partisan line.
(Biden 51, Trump 47 via Emerson | Biden 54, Trump 41 via Quinnipiac)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.49]
Like several other states, Pennsylvania, too, had a couple of poll releases on the day. Both were repeat offenders, having previously conducted surveys in the commonwealth. Unlike the other two states with Quinnipiac polls, the change poll over poll in the Keystone state was not to the same degree. In fact, there has been one common thread across the three Q-polls of Pennsylvania in 2020: they have all had Biden at or above 50 percent and all have had Trump in the low 40s. The lead certainly widened since the early September poll, but not like in Florida (even if both new polls resembled one another). The Emerson update looks similar to the August survey, but this one included third party candidates. That aside, Trump stayed at 47 percent, but Biden dropped a couple of points.
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.49]
Like several other states, Pennsylvania, too, had a couple of poll releases on the day. Both were repeat offenders, having previously conducted surveys in the commonwealth. Unlike the other two states with Quinnipiac polls, the change poll over poll in the Keystone state was not to the same degree. In fact, there has been one common thread across the three Q-polls of Pennsylvania in 2020: they have all had Biden at or above 50 percent and all have had Trump in the low 40s. The lead certainly widened since the early September poll, but not like in Florida (even if both new polls resembled one another). The Emerson update looks similar to the August survey, but this one included third party candidates. That aside, Trump stayed at 47 percent, but Biden dropped a couple of points.
Texas
(Biden 48, Trump 48 via Civiqs | Biden 49, Trump 49 via EMC Research)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.61]
Both new surveys in the Lone Star state had the two candidates running above their established average shares of support but also showed a decreasing number of undecideds. That continues to be something to watch as election day nears: where those undecided respondents end up. Biden has had polling leads in Texas throughout the summer, but if undecideds smooth things out for both candidates and draw this race closer to a tie, then that is a potentially huge development with 38 electoral votes on the line. That the Trump campaign and Republicans are being made to spend in Texas at all (or simply rely on past Republican support to get Trump over the line without the spending) says much about the state of this race for the White House. Again, if Texas is among the most competitive states on election day, then Biden is likely sitting pretty in his quest for 270.
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.61]
Both new surveys in the Lone Star state had the two candidates running above their established average shares of support but also showed a decreasing number of undecideds. That continues to be something to watch as election day nears: where those undecided respondents end up. Biden has had polling leads in Texas throughout the summer, but if undecideds smooth things out for both candidates and draw this race closer to a tie, then that is a potentially huge development with 38 electoral votes on the line. That the Trump campaign and Republicans are being made to spend in Texas at all (or simply rely on past Republican support to get Trump over the line without the spending) says much about the state of this race for the White House. Again, if Texas is among the most competitive states on election day, then Biden is likely sitting pretty in his quest for 270.
West Virginia
(Trump 56, Biden 38)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +30.11]
Much has and will be made of the 18 point Trump advantage in the new Triton Polling and Research of the Mountain state. And on the surface, it is jarring. The president won West Virginia by 42 points in 2016, so a 24 point swing is no small thing. But it is a massive outlier if things look like this on election day. The current average swing from the 2016 election to polling now is about six and three-quarters points toward the Democrats. This sort of change in West Virginia would be way above average. But there have been clunker polls elsewhere in red states in 2020 as well. The four point Trump lead in Alabama from Tyson Group in August comes to mind. One should expect the margin in West Virginia to be closer in 2020 than in 2016 on the notion of a uniform swing toward the Democrats alone. But it likely will not be quite this acute.
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +30.11]
Much has and will be made of the 18 point Trump advantage in the new Triton Polling and Research of the Mountain state. And on the surface, it is jarring. The president won West Virginia by 42 points in 2016, so a 24 point swing is no small thing. But it is a massive outlier if things look like this on election day. The current average swing from the 2016 election to polling now is about six and three-quarters points toward the Democrats. This sort of change in West Virginia would be way above average. But there have been clunker polls elsewhere in red states in 2020 as well. The four point Trump lead in Alabama from Tyson Group in August comes to mind. One should expect the margin in West Virginia to be closer in 2020 than in 2016 on the notion of a uniform swing toward the Democrats alone. But it likely will not be quite this acute.
(Biden 47, Trump 42)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.12]
Last but not least, solid Marquette Law School updated the state of the race in the Badger state for the first time since early September and continued to show a steady race. Both candidates lost a little off of their September support, but Biden slightly increased his advantage in that time. This one is not far off the average margin, but it does have both candidates falling short of their average shares of support, but Biden a bit more so. Trump will not need Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to get to 270, but he will need one of them and Pennsylvania sits closer to the partisan line right now than the other two. But it remains more than five points out of the president's grasp and is drifting further away.
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.12]
Last but not least, solid Marquette Law School updated the state of the race in the Badger state for the first time since early September and continued to show a steady race. Both candidates lost a little off of their September support, but Biden slightly increased his advantage in that time. This one is not far off the average margin, but it does have both candidates falling short of their average shares of support, but Biden a bit more so. Trump will not need Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to get to 270, but he will need one of them and Pennsylvania sits closer to the partisan line right now than the other two. But it remains more than five points out of the president's grasp and is drifting further away.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
DC-3
VT-3
(6)2
|
IL-20
(162)
|
WI-10
(253)
|
SC-9
(125)
|
TN-11
(60)
|
MA-11
(17)
|
NJ-14
(176)
|
PA-203
(273 | 285)
| MO-10
(116)
|
KY-8
(49)
|
MD-10
(27)
|
OR-7
(183)
|
NV-6
(279 | 265)
| AK-3
(116)
|
AL-9
(41)
|
CA-55
(82)
|
ME-2
(185)
|
FL-29
(308 | 259)
|
KS-6
(103)
|
SD-3
(32)
|
NY-29
(111)
|
CO-9
(194)
|
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
|
NE CD1-1
MT-3
(97) |
ID-4
(29)
|
HI-4
(115)
|
VA-13
(207)
|
NC-15
ME CD2-1
(335 | 219)
|
NE-2
(93)
|
AR-6
(25)
|
DE-3
(118)
|
NH-4
(211)
|
GA-16
(203)
|
IN-11
(91)
|
OK-7
(19)
|
WA-12
(130)
|
NM-5
(216)
|
OH-18
(187)
|
UT-6
(80)
|
ND-3
(12)
|
ME CD1-1
CT-7
(138)
|
MN-10
(226)
|
IA-6
(169)
|
MS-6
(74)
|
WV-5
(9)
|
RI-4
(142)
|
MI-16
NE CD2-1
(243)
|
TX-38
(163)
|
LA-8
(68)
|
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is. | ||||
There was so much to look at polling-wise on the day that debate season resumes. However, there was nary a change across the graphics at FHQ. The map and Watch List -- those states within a fraction of a point of changing categories -- remained exactly as they were yesterday. Only Missouri, on the strength of that new GHY survey, pushed past Alaska and closer to the partisan line separating both candidates coalitions of states. But that group of Alaska, Missouri and South Carolina are fairly tightly clustered on the lower end of the Lean Trump category, but just off the Watch List. None of the three are likely to fall to the Democrats unless the bottom truly drops out on Trump, but that Lean/Toss Up line on Trump's side is probably the cut off point. Texas is potentially achievable for Biden but it is the last state in the order that is likely to flip blue in November. That is not to say that Texas will or will not flip, but it is likely Biden's high water mark in a landslide scenario (again, unless the dam breaks on Trump).
27 days to go.
Where things stood at FHQ on October 7 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008
--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.
--
Related posts:
Where things stood at FHQ on October 7 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008
--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Potential Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Georgia
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Strong Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
New Mexico
|
from Strong Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Biden
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.
--
Related posts:
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