Frontloading HQ: Mike Pompeo

Showing posts with label Mike Pompeo. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 18, 2023

Invisible Primary: Visible -- The Professionalization of Trump's Campaign

Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

Let's look at the endorsement primary for a moment, shall we?

Because Donald Trump keeps rolling out endorsements. They are not coming in altogether. But they are not necessarily being rolled out at random either. For example, Republicans -- 2024 candidates and donors -- gathered at a retreat in Nashville over the weekend. And then the Trump campaign announced its Tennessee leadership team, including both US Senators from the Volunteer state and an additional four members of the House. Also, Ron DeSantis tried to circle the wagons in the Sunshine state last week and freeze further Florida congressional delegation endorsements of the former president. And then Trump lined up another Florida endorsement from Rep. Greg Steube (R-FL).

Taken by themselves, these actions are part and parcel of the invisible primary. But the slow, methodical and even calculated way in which they are being made public are increasingly a sign of a more sophisticated campaign. No, it is not the massing of folks behind Trump that the 45th president enjoyed as an incumbent four years ago, but it is leaps and bounds ahead of the often haphazard campaign that Trump willed to the 2016 Republican nomination. And as such, this is yet another datapoint, at least at this time, to file in answer to that "Is Trump 2023 closer to Trump 2015 or Trump 2019?" question that FHQ continues to dredge up. It is not necessarily time to stop pretending that other candidates have a chance at the 2024 Republican nomination, but Trump and uncertainty make for a fairly formidable ticket at the moment. And a relatively professionalized campaign operation will not hurt either.

[Note also that many of Trump's endorsements at the national level are clustered in Southern states and in states with contests in or before March.]

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In the travel primary, Ron DeSantis descends on South Carolina tomorrow for the first time, attending two events in the Charleston area and another in the Upstate. Vivek Ramaswamy is planning a long weekend ahead in Iowa. And Trump will be back in New Hampshire next week.

Speaking of the Granite state, visits are up or down depending on who one asks. It can be both after all. Candidates are announcing later in 2023 than they did in either 2015 or 2019 and that has had an impact on visits (because it has had an impact on candidate activity, broadly speaking). However, every cycle is different and has its own nuances. 2024 is no different. The best way to assess this is not the raw number of visits at a given time, but rather, tracking the patterns in where candidates and prospective candidates are going. And through that lens, candidates and prospective candidates are still treating New Hampshire as if it is one of the early states.

...and that is just what the folks in the Granite state want.

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FHQ discussed Mike Pompeo ending his quest for the 2024 Republican nomination some yesterday in this space. But Seth Masket has more on that over at Tusk:

But he’s [Pompeo's] also spent two years talking to the sorts of people whose support he’d need to take down former President Trump, or at least be a credible alternative. And it seems pretty clear that those folks weren’t prepared to join his effort. They saw no need to fund him or endorse him, and perhaps they saw a risk in doing so. When Pompeo says “This isn’t our moment,” he means that he needs a certain amount of backing to go forward this year, and it just isn’t there for him.

Subscribe to Tusk if you have not already.

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Over at FHQ Plus...

Hawaii and Kansas both have active efforts to bring state-run presidential primaries to a pair of states that do not usually have (or have never had) them. However, both are at different points in the process.

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On this date...

...in 1983, South Carolina Senator Fritz Hollings (D) entered the race for the 1984 Democratic presidential nomination.

...in 1984, Missouri Democrats caucused, handing former Vice President Walter Mondale another victory on his way to the nomination.

...in 1988, Democratic caucuses were conducted in Delaware, with eventual runner-up, Jesse Jackson, scoring one of his final wins of the cycle.

Recent posts:

Invisible Primary: Visible -- The Winnowing of the Republican Field

Sunday Series: Checking in on Biden and the 2024 Democratic Invisible Primary

From FHQ Plus: The Blurred Lines Between State and Party on the Caucuses in Iowa

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Monday, April 17, 2023

Invisible Primary: Visible -- The Winnowing of the Republican Field

Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

The Republican presidential nomination field winnowed a bit as the work week came to a close last Friday. Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (R), in a solid Friday news dump with most folks focused on Republicans gathered at the NRA in Indianapolis and/or with big donors in Nashville, revealed that he would not present himself as a candidate to become President of the United States.

Only, Pompeo did "present" himself. As FHQ noted after the news broke, Pompeo "kicked the tires, did some of the things presidential candidates do, but ultimately passed." And he did. Pompeo released a book earlier this year. He made several trips to Iowa. He visited New Hampshire. South Carolina, too. He even dropped in on Nevada. He bought digital ads targeted at Iowa and South Carolina. He also started a political action committee with the express purpose of helping to elect Republicans. All of this -- each and every activity -- is consistent with the actions of those who seek a presidential nomination.

Pompeo ran for 2024, but he will not be running in 2024. He did all of that, but it never attracted donors or other support, at least not to the extent the other candidates, announced and supposedly in waiting, have at this point. And that is how winnowing works in the invisible primary. It is not about votes and delegates. It is about building the infrastructure to set one up to actually go and win votes and delegates. Pompeo reached the conclusion that his infrastructure building was not going to be enough. And that winnowed the Republican field for 2024.

[Matt Glassman also had a good thread on this subject on Saturday.]

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The New York Times lede to this story about Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin (R) pumping the brakes on a possible presidential bid was something:

Virginia’s governor is putting the presidential hoopla on ice.

Gov. Glenn Youngkin, the Republican whose surprising election in a blue-trending state set off instant talk of a presidential run, has tapped the brakes on 2024, telling advisers and donors that his sole focus is on Virginia’s legislative elections in the fall.

Mr. Youngkin hopes to flip the state legislature to a Republican majority. That could earn him a closer look from rank-and-file Republicans across the country, who so far have been indifferent to the presidential chatter surrounding him in the news media, and among heavyweight donors he would need to keep pace alongside more prominent candidates. He has yet to crack 1 percent in polls about the potential Republican field.

[emphasis FHQ's]

As noted there, Youngkin's move is a nod to reality. But waiting until after November? Yeah, that dog won't hunt. Maybe in 1984. Not in 2024. Probably not in 2004. But there simply is no substitute for getting into a race and taking your lumps: making and recovering from early missteps, honing the fundraising and campaign operations, etc. Candidates can no longer wait until the fall of the year before a presidential election to officially launch a presidential campaign. Well, they can, but it leaves such a steep hill to climb, a nearly insurmountable learning curve to overcome right before voters start voting in presidential primaries, as to be nearly impossible.

And in fairness to Youngkin. He would not necessarily be starting from scratch in every facet of a campaign. He has been on the donor circuit across the country so far this year. But like Pompeo above, he has not gotten the positive feedback he maybe otherwise would have wanted. And donors have not exactly gotten the best impression of Youngkin either.

But waiting is not the answer. Youngkin, like all of the other candidates not named Trump or DeSantis, is hoping that things fall in his lap. That the indictments get Trump. That DeSantis implodes. That the two candidates currently atop the polls of the 2024 Republican presidential nomination race so drag each other through the mud that voters start to flock to another viable alternative on down the line. Maybe that opens up a path. And maybe it does, but it takes a lot of steps to get there, steps that have yet to really materialize six months ahead of November.

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Some of the early FEC reports are in from the first quarter. The tap still seems to be running in the money primary. The indictments have not hurt Trump yet and Nikki Haley apparently had some creative accounting to get to her $11 million total.

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