The 2012 Candidates (6/3/11)

Added:

Candidacy announcements: Cain, Pawlenty, Romney

Out: Daniels, Trump

New classifications: "latest denials"¹, "reconsidering"

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Democrats:

Barack Obama (announced: 4/4/11)

Republicans:

Michelle Bachmann

Haley Barbour (4/25/11)

John Bolton

Jeb Bush (latest denial: 5/23/11)

Herman Cain (exploratory: 1/12/11) (candidacy: 5/21/11)

Chris Christie (latest denial: 6/1/11)

Mitch Daniels (5/22/11)

Jim DeMint (latest denials: 3/24/11, 6/1/11)

Newt Gingrich (exploratory: 3/4/11) (candidacy: 5/11/11)

Rudy Giuliani

Mike Huckabee (5/14/11)

Jon Huntsman

Bobby Jindal (12/8/10)

Gary Johnson (candidacy: 4/21/11)

Roy Moore (exploratory: 4/18/11)

Sarah Palin

George Pataki (4/20/11)

Ron Paul (exploratory: 4/14/11) (candidacy: 5/13/11)

Tim Pawlenty (exploratory: 3/21/11) (candidacy: 5/23/11)

Mike Pence (1/27/11)

Rick Perry (latest denials: 4/15/11, 5/20/11) (reconsidering: 5/25/11)

Buddy Roemer (exploratory: 3/3/11)

Mitt Romney (exploratory: 4/11/11) (candidacy: 6/2/11)

Rick Santorum (exploratory 4/13/11)

John Thune (2/22/11)

Donald Trump (5/16/11)

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¹ This classification has been added for prospective candidates who have been repeatedly asked and denied and intention to run for president (ie: Christie, Bush). Prospective candidates who have issued definitive answers but about whom rumors have forced more recent denials are also included in this categorization (ie: DeMint).

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Romney still ahead in New Hampshire (2012) -- July 2010

No surprises here:

Romney: 31%

Gingrich: 14%

Paul: 13%

Huckabee: 12%

Palin: 9%

Pawlenty: 3%

Daniels: 1%

Someone else: 5%

Undecided: 11%

Poll: Public Policy Polling

Sample: 415 Republican voters

Margin of Error: +/- 4.81%

Conducted: July 23-25, 2010

I won't dwell on these results. More than anything, they simply maintain the status quo: Romney looks good in New Hampshire. Ho hum. However, I will add one note of caution. This was a survey of Republican voters in the Granite state. It does not in any way account for the mass of independents that will surely participate in the Republican primary with Democrats idle in 2012. The argument could be made that Romney would benefit even more from the inclusion of independents. Yet, New Hampshire primary voters have been known to be, oh, I don't want to say quirky, but willing to take a flyer on someone other than the frontrunner. While there is no definitive frontrunner for the Republican nomination at this point, Romney is the New Hampshire frontrunner and that gains him some points in laying claim to that tag at the national level.

Speaking of Romney, FHQ will have an update -- with graphics -- of his trial heat numbers against Obama later today.

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