Which Republican is the Biggest Threat in 2012?

This wasn't the question that Greenberg Quinlan and Rosner posed to the participants at Netroots Nation, but if you reverse the ordering of the results, you'd get a rough idea of who liberals and progressives find are the biggest threats to Barack Obama's re-election bid in 2012. First, though, let's look at the question and the results [pdf]:

Q.16 Of the main contenders for the 2012 Republican nomination for President, please indicate
who, in your opinion, would be the easiest to beat.
Total

Sarah Palin.......................................................................... 36
Rick Santorum..................................................................... 20
Bobby Jindal........................................................................ 12
Ron Paul .............................................................................. 7
Rudy Giuliani........................................................................ 5
Jeb Bush.............................................................................. 4
Jon Kyl ................................................................................. 3
Mike Huckabee.................................................................... 2
Tim Pawlenty........................................................................ 1
Mitt Romney......................................................................... 1
(No Answer) ........................................................................ 9

Margin of error: n/a
Sample: 252 conference participants
Conducted: August 13-14, 2009

252 respondents is hardly representative of Democrats as a whole (much less the Republicans who will largely decide who their 2012 nominee will be), but I would wager a guess that this result is a pretty good representation of those attending Netroots. Regardless, Palin is perceived to be the easiest for Obama to beat in 2012 (over a third of the respondents) with Romney and Pawlenty bringing up the rear with only one percent each. Again, this isn't necessarily the same question, but if we flip those results, we would likely have at least a close approximation of the Republican whom those at NN see as the best challenger to the president three years hence.

Other than telling me that some Republicans out there are now ready to write checks to Romney and Pawlenty, this list makes me think of the Democrats vying for the party's nomination in 2004. I've tried to link the prospective 2012 Republican presidential field to the Democratic field in 2008, but the the better comparison may be 2004, especially in lieu of the fact that the GOP will be in the same position the Democrats were in in 2004: out of the White House and out of power on the Hill. Who were the 2004 principals and who are their 2012 counterparts?

John Kerry: Mitt Romney (early frontrunner who may or may not stumble along the way to the nomination)

John Edwards: Tim Pawlenty (up-and-comer making a populist appeal)

Dick Gephardt: Mike Huckabee (solid, if uninspiring choice, but at the wrong place at the wrong time)

Howard Dean: Sarah Palin (heart-on-the-sleeve type who effectively uses technology to make their appeals to an enthusiastic base within the party)

Will it play out that way? Perhaps, though not in anything resembling the same order. Palin, for instance, may or may not have already had her Dean Scream moment. One thing I will say is that a Romney/Pawlenty ticket wouldn't be a bad choice for the Party of Lincoln.

Back to the poll: No Thune. No Barbour. And most glaringly, no Gingrich. Is that because none of those three would be "easy" to beat or because not one of the 252 respondents thought of them as potential 2012 candidates? I'd lean toward the latter, but I don't consider that margin to be very wide between those two camps. In fact, the more I think about it, the more I find I'm reconsidering that answer.

Hat tip to GOP12 for the link.


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