Invisible Primary: Visible -- Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...
First, over at FHQ Plus...
- How about an update on some quiet calendar and rules stories from around the country that maybe have not seen much of a spotlight? We dig into a few 2024 things in Delaware, Georgia, New York and South Dakota. All the details at FHQ Plus.
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In Invisible Primary: Visible today...
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Look at one more thing from that recent Granite State poll from the University of New Hampshire:
Six in ten New Hampshire residents support a New Hampshire law that requires the state's Presidential Primary to be held before any similar contest.
It was interesting the ways in which this finding was reported. At home in New Hampshire, WMUR headlined an article, "New UNH poll shows most support law requiring New Hampshire hold first presidential primary."
Meanwhile, national outlets like The Messenger honed in on the crosstabs focused on Democrats in the Granite state, "Poll: Less Than Half Of New Hampshire Democrats Support First-In-The-Nation Primary Law."
Neither is untrue. Neither is off-base. It is just interesting to what each opted to draw attention.
FHQ would offer another interpretation. Yes, Democrats in the state appear to be divided over the first-in-the-nation question, but in years past that number likely would have been far, far higher. Again, the first-in-the-nation primary has been one of the few things where Democrats and Republicans in New Hampshire have seen eye-to-eye as politics has become more and more polarized. And many Democrats are still with Republicans in the state on the matter according to this survey. But all/most of them are not. Not anymore anyway. Not at this time.
That is a big deal. A national party -- in this case the Democratic National Committee -- taking a stand on the early calendar has triggered a marked dip in support for one of the biggest institutions New Hampshirites hang their hats on in the national spotlight every four years.
Now, it is fair to ask whether the numbers would have trailed off as much if Democrats were looking at a competitive nomination fight in 2024. But they are not. And that buttresses the argument that if ever there was a time to make big calendar changes, it is during an incumbent reelection cycle. This is just one poll and there is so much yet to play out in this New Hampshire/DNC drama before next summer at the Chicago convention.
...but this is an interesting poll result.
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Last week, FHQ had this to say about the state of the DeSantis campaign and circling the wagons in Iowa:
Much of the current negativity around the DeSantis campaign may be legitimate. It may also be overblown. Campaigns at this level are often on a knife's edge. But whether it is real or not, one of the things to eye (as a real operationalization of that) is how much emphasis Team DeSantis puts on Iowa. Yes, Trump and DeSantis have been "eyeing Super Tuesday states," but that is not anything that is new. However, if the DeSantis campaign and affiliated groups begin to put all or most of their eggs in the Iowa basket, then that could be a sign that the campaign's options (on a number of fronts) are waning. Wooing evangelicals in the Hawkeye state (before a gathering there) may or may not be evidence of that. But it is something to watch in the coming days.
This week Never Back Down, the super PAC affiliated with the DeSantis effort, is scaling up its activity in the Hawkeye state, host of the first-in-the-nation caucuses next January. Again, this is a super PAC and not the campaign itself, but it is somewhat telling.
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From around the invisible primary...
- In the travel primary, former Vice President Mike Pence finishes up his latest (three-day) swing through New Hampshire on Friday, July 21.
- North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum will spend this evening at a rodeo in Montana. It is an unconventional stop not for the event but for the location. The primary in the Treasure state is not until June 4 next year.
- President Biden, the DNC and state parties are aiming to present a unified front in their collective 2024 campaign fundraising and spending.
- Much of the erosion of Ron DeSantis's support among Republicans in recent months comes from those with a college degree, a group among whom the Florida governor excelled relative to Trump.
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On this date...
...in 1988, Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis accepted the Democratic presidential nomination in Atlanta.
...in 2016, Donald Trump gave his acceptance speech in Cleveland, completing his path to the Republican presidential nomination.
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