Showing posts with label Nikki Haley. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nikki Haley. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 24, 2024

Haley's Path Forward ...and more in response to New Hampshire

Nikki Haley's path to the the 2024 Republican presidential nomination may have more obstacles.

Leading the day at FHQ...


...for now. 

A day after an expectations-beating performance in New Hampshire, the former South Carolina governor faces a daunting task ahead in her one-on-one duel with Donald Trump for the Republican presidential nomination. Mired in the teens in the Granite state as recently as the holiday season, Haley rose as other candidates fell by the wayside. That cleared a path to a head-to-head with Trump, but the results in the New Hampshire primary did little to grease the skids for the former UN ambassador to rise much further. 

In fact, New Hampshire was a good state for Haley on paper: more college educated and fewer evangelical voters (than in Iowa), independents could participate, etc. And she still came up short. Still, the final polls made things looked bleaker than they turned out to be and that is not nothing. But exactly how much that something is worth remains to be seen. 

It buys Haley some time, but not much. And it is tough to chart out a viable path forward to the nomination, much less South Carolina on February 24. Viable path. There is a path, but it entails stringing together what little Haley's campaign can muster in the meantime. She is the headliner on the Trump-less primary ballot in Nevada. Yes, it is a beauty contest primary, and while a win promises no delegates, it may carry the distinction of garnering her more votes than Trump will receive in the Silver state caucuses two days later. Again, that is not nothing, but how much that particular something is worth is hard to gauge. A vote-rich "win" in the Nevada primary coupled with a win the caucuses in the Virgin Islands on February 8 probably does not hurt. 

But what does that buy Haley in two weeks' time? 

Maybe it grants her a bit more time, but it grants her time to consider that she is even further behind in the delegate count and that her home of South Carolina still does not offer much relief. Perhaps the polls in the Palmetto state will have moved by then. Maybe Nevada, the Virgin Islands and/or the campaign will spur such a change. But if the polls do not move, then, as FHQ noted yesterday, the cacophony of winnowing pressures from Republicans in the broader party network are only going to grow louder and the prospect of not just a loss at home, but a big loss, will loom large. 

Again, there is a path forward for Nikki Haley. Only, it is not a particularly good path. And it certainly gets her no closer to the nomination. 

But hey, if she can manage to bankroll it, then why not play it out, grab what delegates she can, cross her fingers that Trump's legal troubles catch up with him and head into the convention in good standing? Yeah, that is a path, too. In theory. It just is not a sustainable path. Whatever incentives the former president's courtroom drama provide to stay in the race, the winnowing pressures will more than offset. And that would affect any "good" standing she may have as the candidate with the second most delegates at the convention.

The convention is way off. Haley's concerns are more immediate. And her path? Filled with obstacles.


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All the New Hampshire results are not in, but it looks like the delegate count out of the Granite state is going to end at...
Trump -- 12 delegates 
Haley -- 10

But currently Haley is clinging to her tenth delegate. If she drops below 43.2 percent, then she will fall below the rounding threshold and that tenth delegate will become unallocated. Trump is not in a position to round up unless he approaches 57 percent of the vote. However, he would claim that unallocated delegate formerly in Haley's column because all unallocated delegates go to the winner of the primary. That would push Trump's total to 13 delegates in the state. 

UPDATE:


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Posted by Josh Putnam at 9:30 AM 0 comments
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Tuesday, October 24, 2023

Why DeSantis Attacks Haley

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

First, over at FHQ Plus...
  • Some Missouri Republicans keep advancing a bogus rationale to justify the 2022 elimination of the presidential primary in the Show-Me state. And FHQ keeps getting irritated by it. Venting... All the details at FHQ Plus.
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In Invisible Primary: Visible today...
On its surface, the latest fusillade from DeSantis-affiliated super PAC Never Back Down against Nikki Haley seems to fit into the now-conventional narrative of a fight for second place in the Republican presidential nomination race behind former President Donald Trump. 

It comes from a branch of the consolidation theory of the race. That, if only the race narrowed to Trump and an alternative, then that alternative, whomever he or she may be, could finally overtake Trump. Mathematically, that makes some sense. Some sense, but it has made less and less sense over time as Trump has expanded his lead in the polls nationally and on the state level. After all, if Trump is pulling in more than a half of support in surveys, much less votes during primary season next year, then it is going to take more than just a one-on-one with the former president for an alternative topple him. It is going to take something else. In other words, it continues to be consolidation theory but with a side of magical thinking. 

However, the DeSantis case is a bit different than it may be for other would-be second placers. And the explanation may be simpler for why the Florida governor and company are going after Haley (and putting off focusing on Trump for a hypothetical one-on-one). And it has everything to do with the trajectory of the DeSantis campaign. It is not so much that DeSantis has lost or is about to cede second place to Haley. Rather, it is about how he has lost second place (if he has lost it). As DeSantis' fortunes have declined, it is Trump who has gained the most. And one does not win back former supporters who have drifted over into the Trump column by attacking Trump. 

The campaign may not win them back by fighting Nikki Haley either. But overall, the move stands less a chance of success by directly taking on Trump now.1 

That said, this is another case of Trump benefiting from opposing campaigns putting off the inevitable. Short-term motivations outweigh long-term considerations.


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From around the invisible primary...
  • Iowa focus: DeSantis has some company in the "all in in Iowa" category. The campaign of South Carolina Senator Tim Scott has now also begun to redirect money and staff to the first-in-the-nation caucuses in the Hawkeye state. 
  • Debates: Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie's campaign has indicated that he has qualified for the November 8 debate in Miami. North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum has met the donor threshold, but continues to fall short of the polling criteria. 
  • New Hampshire entrants: Both Donald Trump and Mike Pence filed in Concord on Monday to appear on ballot in the as yet unscheduled primary in the Granite state.
  • Quiet winnowing: If a candidate is winnowed from the field and no one is there to see it, has that candidate really been winnowed? FHQ does not know. What is known is that businessman Perry Johnson has suspended his presidential campaign. Yeah, that is winnowing.
  • Staff primary: Staffers in the Florida governor's office keep leaving their jobs and finding their way into roles with the DeSantis campaign. 
  • Blast from the past: Trump's expanded lead has made this a bit less of a thing, but calibrating Trump 2024 to Trump 2020 and/or Trump 2016 is still a thing if attempting to assess where his current campaign is now. Tending the grassroots in New Hampshire in 2023 appears to be ahead of where it was in 2015. But support is not nearly as consolidated behind him as it was in 2019.
  • Consolidation theory, South Carolina edition: The editorial board at the Charleston Post & Courier called on hometown candidate Tim Scott to withdraw and clear the way for Nikki Haley to challenge Trump in the state and nomination race.

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1 Note also that DeSantis has upped the attacks on Trump lately. But the overall effort is not exclusively homed in on Trump.


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Tuesday, June 13, 2023

Are the Two South Carolinians Hurting DeSantis in the Palmetto State?

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

First, over at FHQ Plus...
  • Haven't had a chance to check out the latest deep dive on the proposed Michigan Republican hybrid primary-caucus plan to allocate delegates in 2024? Go check it out. But coming later at FHQ Plus, Michigan Republicans may not have the only pre-Super Tuesday (but compliant) contest on March 2. All the details at FHQ Plus.
If you haven't checked out FHQ Plus yet, then what are you waiting for? Subscribe below for free and consider a paid subscription to support FHQ's work and unlock the full site.


In Invisible Primary: Visible today...
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Some folks in the DeSantis orbit are, according to Shelby Talcott at Semafor, griping about the impact the crowded field is having on the Florida governor. In particular, the focus appears to be on the injurious effect the two South Carolinians in the race -- former Governor Nikki Haley and Senator Tim Scott -- are having on DeSantis in the Palmetto state. 

But assertions that Haley and Scott are only in the race in pursuit of a spot on the ticket with Trump or a  slot in a hypothetical Trump cabinet aside, is the pair hurting DeSantis now or likely to in the future in the first-in-the-South primary state? 

Talcott hints at the answer being yes in her piece, citing current Real Clear Politics averages of polls of the race in South Carolina. The former president checks in just above 40 percent, DeSantis is about half that and both Haley and Scott are hovering just over ten percent. If one combines DeSantis, Haley and Scott support, then yes, the conglomerate (presumably headed by DeSantis) is competitive with if not slightly ahead of Trump in the state. 

Yet, would Haley's and/or Scott's South Carolina support go to DeSantis if either or both were suddenly on the sidelines? There is some evidence outside of mere speculation that it would be. An April survey of Palmetto state Republicans from National Public Affairs, for example, showed that Haley's and Scott's support was more correlated with DeSantis than Trump. But while that is suggestive, it is just one poll.

And the presidential nomination process is, after all, sequential. What happens between now and the South Carolina primary early next year will have some impact on the course of that election. The remainder of the invisible primary will matter. The Iowa caucuses will matter. That primary in New Hampshire will matter as well in terms of what is likely to transpire in the South Carolina primary. Haley and Scott may stay in the race through the third contest. But either or both could also pull out so as not to be embarrassed at home.

If one is in the DeSantis camp, the first point to focus on may be the filing deadline for candidates in the Palmetto state. Regardless of whether Haley and/or Scott withdraw from the race after Iowa or New Hampshire, or whether either or both are on the ballot in South Carolina at all matters. If both South Carolinians are still actively in the race at that point, they may pull a meaningful amount from DeSantis in South Carolina. However, even if both suspend their campaigns before their home state contest, they may still siphon off a smaller but sizable enough amount of support from DeSantis if Haley and Scott remain on the ballot. 

Those things matter, but what likely is of greater significance (or should be) to the broader DeSantis presidential effort is the Florida governor being able to pick off one of the first two contests. The worry is better trained on Haley and Scott in Iowa than it is on either one of them back home in the Palmetto state. 

Another question: How are Haley and Scott affecting DeSantis in South Carolina in terms of the invisible primary metrics? That may be the true source of the grumbling. It maybe less that Haley and Scott may rain on the DeSantis parade in the South Carolina primary and more that they are gobbling up institutional support in the state that might otherwise be receptive to DeSantis. There have been headline-grabbing waves of endorsements for the Florida governor in Iowa and New Hampshire. But something has deterred similar inroads (so far) in South Carolina. 


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The Rhode Island House on Monday, June 12 unanimously passed SB 1010, concurring with the Senate version of legislation to move the presidential primary in the Ocean state up from the fourth Tuesday in April to the first Tuesday in April for just the 2024 cycle. The House did not vote on the measure by itself. Rather, the body took up and adopted by a 67-0 vote a seven bill consent calendar package including SB 1010. 

The bill now heads off to Governor Dan McKee (D) for his consideration. However, it is likely to be joined shortly by HB 6309, the House version of the same bill, which is on the state Senate's consent calendar for Tuesday, June 13. Should the upper chamber concur, Rhode Island will join New York as states eyeing presidential primary shifts to April 2 where bills have fully cleared the legislative hurdle in the process.


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From around the invisible primary...
  • Doug Burgum did not take long after his announcement last week to hit the airwaves. The North Dakota governor has ads up and running in Iowa and New Hampshire, part of a $3 million buy. 
  • In the money primary, First Lady Jill Biden has been deployed on a fundraising junket ahead of the second quarter deadline at the end of the month.

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On this date...
...in 2011, Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission to seek the 2012 Republican presidential nomination. 

...in 2015, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton officially launched her campaign for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination.



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Wednesday, April 26, 2023

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Hutchinson's Turn to (Officially) Jump in

Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

Former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson (R) already spilled the beans earlier this month, but he is set to officially join the 2024 Republican presidential nomination race on Wednesday, April 26. The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette has a write up on the Natural state's favorite son candidate for 2024.
"We've been divided before, we have struggled before, and we're resilient," he said in an interview with the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. "It's because we're the greatest democracy in the world, and we have a Constitution that we try to follow. It has tensions, but we always find a way through." 
Hutchinson, 72, hopes to relay that message to the voting populace as a presidential candidate. Hutchinson announced his electoral ambitions earlier this month and will officially kick off his campaign today with an event in Bentonville.
He faces long odds in the battle for the Republican nomination. So far, Hutchinson has tested the limits of opposition to former President Trump and has drawn a launch day rebuke from a county Republican Party in his home state:
“We need somebody strong,” [Saline County Republican Party Committee Vice-Chair Jennifer] Lancaster said. “We need somebody bold who is willing to take on the controversial issues and the tough issues, and he is not that person.”
And that more or less encapsulates things for Hutchinson as he sets out on a bid for the Republican nomination. He is "strong" enough to take on Trump when few others seem willing to, but not strong enough for the moment in the eyes of those who will be voting on who the Republican nominee will be in 2024. That is a tough spot to be in at the current moment with Trump riding high in most metrics that measure invisible primary success. That is especially true when "strong" is often synonymous with Trump.


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FHQ does not often talk about issues or candidate position-taking on issues. But that does not mean that issue positioning by the candidates is not important. It just means that it does not often intersect with the calendar and the rules. However, it does matter in the invisible primary. And while the Supreme Court's Dobbs decision in the early summer of 2022 put the Republican Party on the defensive on abortion in the months that followed, that does provide some potential opportunities in the Republican presidential nomination race. 

Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley staked out a nuanced position on abortion on Tuesday, April 25 that has the potential for her to create some daylight between her and her competition for the Republican presidential nomination. The UN ambassador during the Trump administration called for a federal role in the matter but urged consensus building on setting abortion policy at the national level rather than racing to the right on the issue. 
“I said I wanted to save as many babies and help as many moms as is possible — that is my goal,” Haley said, speaking at the pro-life Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America offices here just outside the nation’s capital. “To do that at the federal level, the next president must find national consensus.” (Haley’s speech, according to her prepared remarks, used the word “consensus” nearly a dozen times.)
The conundrum for Haley is whether this position on abortion is better suited for the primary phase or the general election phase. It may set her apart from candidates like fellow South Carolinian, Sen. Tim Scott, but it also may set her back among the Republican primary electorate in 2024 if greater value is placed on ideological rigidity on abortion orthodoxy within the broader party network. It is and will be a crowded field of candidates (and would-be candidates) in the near term. There is room for nuance, but will that register?


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President Biden had an understated kickoff to his reelection bid a day ago. He got a tepid nod of support from some elected officials in New Hampshire. Which is an improvement over recent months! Here is Rep. Ann Kuster (D-NH):
“What I’ve said to the president twice directly now is I think he should come. I think he should be on the ballot in New Hampshire. He’ll win handily." Even if Biden isn’t on the ballot, Kuster said he’d “probably ... win on a write-in.”
Biden even scored an endorsement from 2020 rival Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) on day one. Look, the Sanders entry in the endorsement primary may or may not be a surprise. The party organization at the national level has only signaled support for the president, as has most of the its caucus in Congress. But a Sanders endorsement (and even lukewarm support from the Granite state) speaks to the sort of consolidation of the party that Biden is going to need, not in the primary phase necessarily, but in the general election when the party is going to need to unite anew the coalition that carried the president to victory in 2020.

Speaking of consolidating, Brian Schwartz at CNBC has the latest on big Democratic money circling the wagons on launch day for the president. The money primary will seemingly not be a problem area for Biden as 2024 approaches.

Jonathan Bernstein provides some perspective about Biden to Democrats over at Bloomberg.


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Over at FHQ Plus...
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...
On this date...
...in 1980, Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) won a narrow plurality victory over President Carter in Michigan's Democratic caucuses.

...in 1988, both Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis (D) and Vice President George H.W. Bush (R) won the Pennsylvania primary. The latter of the two officially became the presumptive nominee with the victory, cresting over the number of delegates necessary to claim the nomination. 

...in 2007, former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore (R) entered the 2008 Republican presidential nomination race. 

...in 2016, after wins in New York the previous week, both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump swept the five Acela primary states in the northeast and mid-Atlantic, strengthening their grip on their respective nominations. 



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Friday, April 21, 2023

Invisible Primary: Visible -- How the Republican Candidates Line Up in South Carolina

Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

The 2024 primary calendar is not set yet. But if it goes according to plan on the Republican side, then Iowa Republicans will hold caucuses followed by the presidential primary in New Hampshire. South Carolina would come next, and it is the delegate prize of the early calendar. The Palmetto state not only offers the most delegates of any of the first four states, but also allocates them in a winner-take-most manner that promises the statewide victor a decent chance of sweeping the delegates with just a bit more than a 40 percent plurality. 

And that is important because a couple of recent polls of South Carolina Republicans show former President Donald Trump pulling in just north of 40 percent support. Now sure, the primary date is not even established in South Carolina, so it is definitely still early. Read into those numbers what one wants at this point, approximately nine months out from the Palmetto state primary. But Trump holds the pole position at the moment and how the candidates line up behind him matters. 

As in the majority of the current national polls of the Republican race, Ron DeSantis now is a clear second option to the 45th president in South Carolina. Behind the Florida governor are a pair of South Carolinians who are vying for the nomination as well. Depending on the poll, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and Senator Tim Scott together account for anywhere from a quarter to a third of the support there. And where that support goes should either or both falter in Iowa or New Hampshire (if not the invisible primary) is consequential. As the National Public Affairs survey demonstrates, Haley and Scott are one and the same for all intents and purposes. Should Haley withdraw, then Scott would be the odds on favorite to take her support. The same is true if it was Scott dropping out. Haley would gain. 

But if both are forced out of the race, then DeSantis is the more likely beneficiary. Some of that homegrown support for Haley and/or Scott may filter out to other candidates or even stay with the favorite son/daughter if one or both remain(s) on the ballot. But if the bulk of that Haley/Scott support shifted to DeSantis, then it could be enough to vault the Florida governor over Trump statewide. 

At this juncture, it is obviously premature to speculate to that degree. But the jockeying in South Carolina matters because it is likely to give the winner of the primary a fairly significant net delegate advantage heading into the Nevada contest and beyond. That is no small thing.

The real take home from all of this is that Haley and Scott have some hard work ahead of them in potentially creating some daylight between each other back home. An early win before South Carolina, either outright or relative to expectations, may do that. But getting to that point is the real trick. That is where the hard work is.


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The key state? New Hampshire. 

One has to read all the way into the seventh paragraph before it is mentioned that Biden may not even be on the ballot in the Granite state if New Hampshire Democrats choose to go rogue, opting into a primary that is likely to be set by the secretary of state for some time in January 2024. 

What this poll really indicates is that a relatively unpopular president is even more unpopular in a state where being first-in-the-nation in the presidential primary process is matter of state identity if not right (in the eyes of some New Hampshirites). Moving South Carolina up was no boon to Biden in New Hampshire. Where all of them might matter more is the general election rather than the primary phase.


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Entry points. Larry Elder is in, and so is Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. as of Wednesday, April 19. Miami Mayor Francis Suarez is close to a decision on entering the Republican presidential nomination race as well. Oh, and President Biden appears to be nearing a decision himself. 


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In the endorsement primary, Trump continues to amass Florida congressional delegation support, picking up three more endorsements from Reps. Bilirakis, Buchanan and Waltz. The former president's campaign is not just doing this in Florida. He also claims the two biggest endorsements in South Carolina from Senator Lindsay Graham and Governor Henry McMaster. It is becoming clearer that the Trump campaign values these opponent-homestate endorsements as effective counters to candidates and would-be candidates running against him for the Republican nomination. 


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Over at FHQ Plus...
  • Hawaii is still trying to create a presidential primary, Idaho is dealing with suddenly not having one and Missouri continues to attempt to bring theirs back. All at FHQ Plus.
If you haven't checked out FHQ Plus yet, then what are you waiting for? Subscribe below for free and consider a paid subscription to support FHQ's work.


...
On this date...
...in 1983, Senator John Glenn (D-OH) announced his campaign for the 1984 Democratic presidential nomination.

...in 1988, Tennessee Senator Al Gore (D) withdrew from the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.




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Tuesday, April 11, 2023

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Nikki Haley Tips Her Hand

Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

Alexei McCammond at Axios reports that the Haley campaign is circulating a memo to donors that, among other things, is reminding them of the baggage Donald Trump brings to the table. "Still, it’s increasingly clear that Trump’s candidacy is more consumed by the grievances of the past and the promise of more drama in the future, rather than a forward-looking vision for the American people," campaign manager, Betsy Ankney wrote.

This is what campaigns do. They spin. They have to spin an angle that theoretically works to their advantage. One cannot fault Team Haley for that. 

However, if one's campaign is in the position of reminding donors and supporters of something that is ubiquitous -- and something the opposition candidate in question is using in the short term to his advantage -- then that says something about the where said campaign is. And that is not a mystery. Haley has been hovering in the low single digits in the polls even after her campaign announcement in February. 

But importantly, this is a point of differentiation that the Haley campaign is attempting to make. It is not as forceful as, say, Asa Hutchinson was in the wake of the Manhattan indictment against Trump, but it is a push toward finding a nuanced middle ground that, on the one hand, grants Trump the space to run despite the indictment, yet on the other, reminds supporters and donors of the baggage the former president totes around with him like an anvil. It has been a bit of a tightrope walk so far for most candidates, would-be or in the race.

This will not be the last one hears about these Trump negatives or the instant lame-duck status he would be saddled with should be become the 47th president. 

[In the travel primary, Haley is in Denison, Iowa today.]


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Opposite ends of the invisible primary. On one end, Biden: "I plan on running." On the other, Youngkin: "I'm not in Iowa." As invisible primary signals go, those are both fairly clear.


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The endorsement primary continues to lean heavily in Trump's direction. And as a former president and current frontrunner vying for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, that is to be expected. Trump picked up a pledge of support for another member of the Florida delegation to the US House, Rep. Cory Mills (R-FL), upping his congressional total to 39 (45 including members of the Senate). No one else has more than two congressional endorsements. All have room to grow, but Trump definitely has a head start in demonstrating this marker of institutional support from within the party. 


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Over at FHQ Plus...
  • There are 31 states and territories on the Democratic side that have made draft delegate selection plans publicly available ahead of the May 3 deadline to submit the plans to the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee for approval. That means there are still 26 states and territories that have not gone (as) public at this time. Still, there is a lot buried in all the available plans, a number of clues about the calendar included.
If you haven't checked out FHQ Plus yet, then what are you waiting for? Subscribe below.


...
On this date...
...in 1992, the Virginia Democratic caucuses kicked off and were scheduled to continue through April 13. Bill Clinton ultimately took the most delegates from the event.



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See more on our political/electoral consulting venture at FHQ Strategies. 
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Thursday, April 6, 2023

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Biden Gets Another Challenger

Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

Robert Kennedy Jr., who has for some time signaled that a nomination bid was possible, made it official on Wednesday, April 5. Like Marianne Williamson, Kennedy is likely to run a New Hampshire-or-bust strategy in his push for the Democratic presidential nomination. That is sure to add some additional asterisks to the New Hampshire primary. The Granite state is one of the few places that President Biden is extremely unlikely -- although Democrats in the state still harbor hope that he will change his mind -- to be on the ballot. But Kennedy may face an uphill climb even in a state where an unorganized write-in campaign for the president is the main opposition. Independents will be drawn into the much more competitive Republican race in the Granite state and the Democrats remaining may stay home (or cast their lot with Williamson) rather than pull the lever for someone who has taken stances against vaccines and who was encouraged to run by Steve Bannon. That is not a combination that is likely to be successful among Democratic primary voters nationally or even in a state where Biden is uniquely unpopular because of his calendar shuffle. 


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All had been quiet on the fundraising front from former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley since she entered the Republican nomination race. But the dawning of a new fundraising quarter brought news of what she had raised during a truncated first quarter in which Haley had announced. The data? $11 million from 70,000 donors across all 50 states, 67,000 of whom had given less than $200. That is not a bad dispersion and hints at some grassroots support to start for the former South Carolina governor. However, never to be outdone in the money primary, the Trump campaign announced that it had pulled in over $12 million in the time since the news of the Manhattan indictment broke late last week. So much for the Haley campaign having raised more in its first six weeks in the race than Trump had in the first month and a half after his announcement in November. The second quarter numbers may be a truer barometer of Haley's staying power than this first hint. With other indictments looming, Trump may be able to continue to circle the fundraising wagons. ...and even chase DeSantis donors.


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In the endorsement primary, Ron DeSantis claimed his second congressional endorsement. This time from Thomas Massie (R-KY). The two more or less came into the House together after the 2012 elections, although Massie got a bit of a head start, assuming office at the end of 2012 to complete the tail end of his predecessor's term. Massie joins Texas Republican, Chip Roy, as the two House members who have lined up behind DeSantis so far. ... Vivek Ramaswamy scored a coup in winning the support of former Trump state co-chair and state Rep. Fred Doucette in New Hampshire. Look, Trump is the former president and counts the former state party chair as his point man in the Granite state, but this sort of jump to another candidate, especially from someone who had been along for the Trump ride as a leader in both 2016 and 2020, is noteworthy.


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Over at FHQ Plus...
  • Hawaii appears poised to become the last state with unified Democratic control to establish a presidential primary election. Hurdles remain, but the last active 2023 bill to bring a primary to the Aloha state passed another test yesterday.
If you haven't checked out FHQ Plus yet, then what are you waiting for? Subscribe below.


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On this date...
...in 1976, President Gerald Ford swept the Republican primaries in both New York and Wisconsin. On the Democratic side, the results were more mixed. Scoop Jackson won the last of his four 1976 victories in New York while Jimmy Carter took the Wisconsin primary, narrowly squeaking by Mo Udall in a Dewey Defeats Truman moment.


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Tuesday, March 28, 2023

Invisible Primary: Visible -- South Carolina's Position in the Republican Nomination Process

Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

McClatchy's Alex Roarty has a good bit of invisible primary fare from the Palmetto state. Team DeSantis is beginning its build out in South Carolina, a state that figures to be interesting in the 2024 Republican presidential nomination process. Yes, the first-in-the-South primary will be one of the earliest Republican contests. And yes, there are two South Carolinians -- former Governor Nikki Haley and Senator Tim Scott -- and a former president who won the South Carolina primary in 2016 (and who has the backing of the current governor and the state's other US senator) who are vying for (or likely to contest) the nomination in 2024. 

But that does not mean that South Carolina is suddenly Iowa 1992 with Senator Tom Harkin (D-IA) running. No, efforts are underway within the broader DeSantis 2024 effort to hire staff in the state, and a couple of state legislators from the conservative-rich Upstate already look to be on board. State Rep. Josh Kimball (R) is aligned with Never Back Down, the super PAC that has been in the news because of all of its recent activity. And state Sen. Danny Verdin (R) has also spoken favorably of the idea of DeSantis running. These are important moves for any candidate who is building an operation in a state where the big names are either already running or lined up behind another candidate. And if they are not big moves then they are among the only moves a candidate can make in building a network in one of the earliest states on the primary calendar. 

Because, here is the thing about South Carolina: it is unique among the early states. While Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada all allocate delegates in a manner proportionate to the results of their contests, South Carolina Republicans do not. The party utilizes and has for years utilized a winner-take-most scheme where the winner statewide and the winners in each of the state's nine congressional districts can take all of the delegates at stake in those jurisdictions. And that is all fine under RNC rules. All four are exempt from the proportionality requirements placed on other states with contests before March 15. 

Any DeSantis ramp up in South Carolina is a nod to both that reality and the potential for a long delegate fight ahead in 2024. A win statewide would likely mean a fairly significant early net delegate advantage coming out of the state and heading into Nevada and beyond to Super Tuesday. That is what favorite sons and daughters, like Scott and Haley, and Trump are banking on. That is what DeSantis is attempting to prevent. The rules matter. That is why, despite South Carolina politicians and a former president/primary winner running, South Carolina will continue to garner attention -- and lots of it -- during the invisible primary in 2023.


...
Governor Doug Burgum (R-ND) for president? Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) to Iowa? Count those two among the invisible primary maneuverings no one expected to start the week. Yet, there was news of both Republicans' activities on Monday. Handicappers may not give either much of a chance at the 2024 Republican presidential nomination -- and to be fair, the Tillis comms team was quick to offer a Sherman-ish statement denying a prospective bid -- but these moves signal that, as Jonathan Bernstein correctly summed it up, "Republican party actors, including politicians, are not acting as if Trump/DeSantis have the nomination wrapped up between them." 

Too true. Neither Burgum nor Tillis may actually formally seek the Republican nomination, but that both are doing things that prospective presidential candidates do is a sign amid all the jockeying for support of donors, of endorsers and of voters. It is a sign that the unprecedented nature of Trump's third run (in the midst of investigations that may bring indictments, if not convictions) brings with it uncertainty. It is a sign that there may be some doubts about the long term viability of a DeSantis run (despite strong organizational signs in the midst of a "bad" week). One or both of Burgum or Tillis may run for 2024, but neither may actually end up running in 2024. Uncertainty about even well-established and well-positioned candidates breeds activity from everyone else with an eye toward the White House. 


...
In the travel primary, Marianne Williamson drops in on the voters of South Carolina on Tuesday (March 28). Former Vice President Mike Pence heads to Iowa again on Wednesday (March 29), and Vivek Ramaswamy was just there this past weekend. Former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson struck a different tone in California last week than did Ron DeSantis when the Florida governor trekked through the Golden state earlier this month. Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie may have drawn all the headlines in New Hampshire on Monday (March 27), but former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley is also in the Granite state for town halls on Monday and Tuesday.


...
On this date...
...in 2019, Miramar, Florida Mayor Wayne Messam formed an exploratory committee to potentially seek the Democratic nomination. 

...in 2020, the date of the New York primary was changed for the first time due to the pandemic, pushing back to June 2.



Posted by Josh Putnam at 10:00 AM 0 comments
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Friday, February 12, 2021

#InvisiblePrimary: Visible -- Nikki Haley and 2024

To say that Tim Alberta's pulling back of the curtain on a possible (probable?) Nikki Haley run for the Republican nomination in 2024 is thorough is an understatement. It is a great, if not opening salvo, then continuation of the filling out of her profile as the invisible primary trundles onward. 

Much is there to unpack, but FHQ will tease out a couple of things. 

First, Haley is checking the typical boxes of a prospective 2024 candidate. There is a book. The fundraising infrastructure is taking shape. But importantly, Alberta's profile also reveals that a loose campaign team is already coming into focus. Both Nick Ayers, formerly of Pawlenty's 2012 presidential bid, the Republican Governors Association and Vice President Pence's office, as well as pollster Jon Lerner seem to be in the Haley 2024 orbit. Both serve as an early marker in the staff primary that will come to define the emerging campaigns in 2022 and 2023. 

But the more interesting piece of the Haley 2024 puzzle is Alberta's narrative in general, painting the former South Carolina governor and UN ambassador as straddling the with or against Trump fence. He poses a series of questions that get at the heart of what may confront Haley as a bid comes more into focus:
"First, Nikki Haley is going to run for president in 2024. Second, she doesn’t know which Nikki Haley will be on the ballot. Will it be the Haley who has proven so adaptive and so canny that she might accommodate herself to the dark realities of a Trump-dominated party? Will it be the Haley who is combative and confrontational and had a history of giving no quarter to xenophobes? Or will it be the Haley who refuses to choose between these characters, believing she can be everything to everyone?"
It is that last question that is evocative of past presidential runs. The split the difference and appeal to a wide swath of primary voters approach. It can work, but depending on how the rest of the field fills out and where the battle lines are drawn can also leave a candidate without a home. Not to jump back into "lanes," but that last option is awfully reminiscent of where Kamala Harris's 2020 run ended up. Trying to be just right -- and not too progressive or too moderate -- did not end up splitting the difference. It ended up leaving her in the middle of a primary electorate with what was perceived as an ill-defined message that instead of appealing to a wide swath only ended up reaching a small sliver of the 2020 Democratic primary electorate (before the voting actually began).

In any event, Haley looks like a go for a 2024 run. But how she navigates these questions will determine whether she is actually running in 2024.


Posted by Josh Putnam at 3:45 PM 0 comments
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