New State Polls (10/6/16)
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State
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Poll
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Date
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Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|
Arizona
|
|
9/28-9/30
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+/- 3.66%
|
718 likely voters
|
42
|
42
|
9
|
+/-0
|
--
|
Arizona
|
|
10/2-10/4
|
+/- 3.9%
|
600 likely voters
|
44
|
42
|
6
|
+2
|
+1.80
|
Florida
|
|
9/27-10/4
|
+/- 3.8%
|
686 likely voters
|
41
|
38
|
10
|
+3
|
--
|
Florida
|
|
10/2-10/4
|
+/- 3.9%
|
600 likely voters
|
44
|
45
|
4
|
+1
|
+2.04
|
Indiana
|
|
10/3-10/5
|
+/- 4.0%
|
600 likely voters
|
38
|
43
|
8
|
+5
|
+11.11
|
Maryland
|
|
9/27-9/30
|
+/- 4.0%
|
706 likely voters
|
63
|
27
|
2
|
+36
|
+28.28
|
Michigan
|
|
10/1-10/3
|
+/- 4.0%
|
600 likely voters
|
43
|
32
|
12
|
+11
|
+6.22
|
Nevada
|
|
10/2-10/4
|
+/- 3.6%
|
700 likely voters
|
43
|
43
|
2
|
+/-0
|
+0.25
|
New Hampshire
|
|
10/3-10/5
|
+/- 4.4%
|
500 likely voters
|
44
|
42
|
8
|
+2
|
+5.10
|
Ohio
|
|
9/27-10/2
|
+/- 3.46%
|
800 likely voters
|
44
|
42
|
4
|
+2
|
+0.56
|
Rhode Island
|
|
10/2-10/4
|
+/- 3.9%
|
600 likely voters
|
52
|
32
|
6
|
+20
|
+12.29
|
Tennessee
|
|
9/19-10/2
|
+/- 3.7%
|
1000 registered voters
|
33
|
44
|
14
|
+11
|
+14.52
|
Texas
|
|
9/29-10/1
|
+/- 3.51%
|
780 likely voters
|
37.95
|
44.87
|
10.26
|
+6.92
|
+8.63
|
West Virginia
|
|
9/13-9/17
|
+/- 5.0%
|
500 likely voters
|
28
|
60
|
12
|
+32
|
+24.70
|
Polling Quick Hits:
Yesterday's trickle is today's relative flood of new state-level polling data to dig into.
Arizona:
The most recent wave of UPI/CVOTER polls had Trump ahead by ten points in the Grand Canyon state. And it stands alone in a series of around two point leads in surveys throughout 2016 in the state. Even without cell phone users included in the sample, Emerson falls in that range in its new Arizona poll. Of course, this is the first poll Clinton has led there since the end of August. The balance of narrow leads had shifted primarily toward Trump through September; building a small but seemingly durable lead for the New York businessman. The tie in the OH Predictive Insights polls is in a similar position, although this is the closest Trump has been in a series of surveys that have favored Clinton all year.
Florida:
The two new polls from the Sunshine state can tell a couple of different stories taken on their face(s). On the one hand, they represent more evidence that Florida is close. But Florida is always close. On the other, one could take a slightly out of context position that, together, they offer a mixed message about who is ahead. Of the 14 polls in the field after September 11 that FHQ has included in the averages, Clinton has led in 11 of them. Out of the two new polls, take that Emerson one with a grain of salt.
Indiana:
Before jumping to conclusions on the latest Howey survey out of Republican vice presidential nominee Mike Pence's home state, some context. The last poll there was pretty close to the same. Trump is pulling the same 43 percent he did at the beginning of September as he is now. The difference is on Clinton's side, and it is a minimal two percentage point shift in her share of support. Things have gotten marginally closer, then, but only slightly lowers the FHQ graduated weighted average in a Strong Trump state.
Maryland:
Two things on this latest Washington Post poll of Maryland:
1. It looks a lot like the 2012 vote (share) distribution in the Old Line state (only Trump is lagging behind Romney).
2. It also closely resembles the poll the paper conducted in the state in March. Clinton's share is the same and Trump's has increased by one percent.
Mark Maryland as safely blue.
Michigan:
One
could argue that Clinton got a bounce in Michigan out of the first debate. Across the last two EPIC/MRA surveys -- one last month before the debate and one this week -- her margin in the Great Lakes state has ballooned from three to eleven. Yet, that may miss part of the story in Michigan. What is interesting is that the two candidates shares of support in the firm's surveys of Michigan have snapped back to
exactly where they were just after the two conventions had wrapped up.
Michigan remains one of those 40 percent states for Trump, a state where Trump has struggled to reach and/or stay around 40 percent. Two things do work in Trump's favor there. Clinton has not really broken out of the low 40s and there continues to be a sizable chunk of undecideds there. Granted, Trump would have to win a significant portion of them to even pull even with Clinton.
Nevada:
Nevada is the closest state in FHQ's averages. Just a quarter of a point separates Clinton and Trump there. It is fitting, then, that the new Emerson poll of the Silver state finds the race knotted up. But in the post-debate landscape, this is a good poll for Trump. Everything since that point has turned in Clinton's direction in Nevada, but the leads have been slight.
New Hampshire:
Including the recent UPI/CVOTER survey the last two polls of the Granite state have shown a much tighter race than has been the case for much of the year. Unlike most states in the immediate aftermath of Clinton's mid-September illness, the polls did not really budge in New Hampshire. After the margins briefly climbed into the low double digits in some surveys just after the conventions, most settled into a Clinton +5 to +9. That trend persisted even when the polls narrowed elsewhere in September. These two could be a blip on the radar or be a sign of some new trend. However, it should be said that this is Suffolk's first trip into New Hampshire this cycle.
Ohio:
The Anzalone survey in Ohio looks a lot like
another recent poll of the state. While there is some consistency across those two surveys, the reality is that the polling is mixed in Ohio. The Buckeye state is close; not Nevada close, but not far off from that either.
Rhode Island:
| Changes (October 6) |
| State | Before | After |
|---|
| Rhode Island | Lean Clinton | Strong Clinton |
In 2012, the Rhode Island vote distribution ended up looking a lot like that of Maryland's. Four years later, however, the similarity has disappeared. Maryland seems the same, but Rhode Island, while still comfortably blue, has seen the gap between candidates contract. The story there is not that Trump has made any gains. He is, in fact, currently only slightly -- a point -- ahead of Romney's pace. Rather, the issue is that Hillary Clinton has consistently run well behind where Obama was in the Ocean state four years ago. Even in this new Emerson poll -- one where the former Secretary of State is well ahead of Trump -- she is about ten points behind Obama 2012.
Rhode Island could do with some more polling.
Tennessee:
Sure, both candidates are lagging behind their 2012 counterparts in this Vanderbilt poll of the Volunteer state. And Trump is even further behind Romney than Clinton is Obama. However, that does not change the fact that Trump continues to be around 15 points ahead of Clinton in Tennessee. It is still falls well into the Strong Trump group of states.
Texas:
FHQ does a mini-double take every time we see a Texas poll with Trump only ahead by a margin in the upper single digits. But those sorts of surveys have been the rule rather than the exception during 2016. While the Lone Star state has been polled infrequently, they collectively paint a picture of a consistent -- albeit it smaller than normal -- Republican advantage.
West Virginia:
For every Maryland on the Democratic side of the partisan line there is a West Virginia on the Republican side. The Mountain state is nearly the surest thing for Donald Trump, but it still amazing how far West Virginia has
traveled across the Electoral College Spectrum in the time since another Clinton was the last Democrat to carry the state.
--
There was a lot to look at, but not much to show for it. The bulk of the figures had mostly Rhode Island flavored changes. The Ocean state inched back into a more typical Strong Democratic position on the map, taking its four electoral votes with it. Additionally, it represented the largest moving state on the Electoral College Spectrum; shifting three spots toward the Democratic end. The other shifts on the Spectrum were only small flips of one spot. Finally, the Watch List lost both Rhode Island and Michigan.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
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MD-102
(13)
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HI-4
(17)
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VT-3
(20)
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CA-55
(75)
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WV-5
(8)
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RI-4
(150)
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WY-3
(3)
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1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.
To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.
3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above.
4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.
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NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
|
State
|
Switch
|
|---|
Alaska
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
|
Colorado
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
|
Iowa
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
|
Maine CD2
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Toss Up Trump
|
Mississippi
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
|
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
|
New Hampshire
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
|
New Jersey
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
|
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
|
Oregon
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
|
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
|
Virginia
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
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1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
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Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/5/16)
The Electoral College Map (10/4/16)
The Electoral College Map (10/3/16)
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