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This legislation has been added to FHQ's updated 2024 presidential primary calendar.
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Recent posts:
Showing posts with label West Virginia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label West Virginia. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 15, 2023
Companion House Bill Would Create February West Virginia Presidential Primary
Tuesday, January 17, 2023
West Virginia Bill Would Move Presidential Primary to February
Friday, October 23, 2020
The Electoral College Map (10/23/20)
Update for October 23.
The work week ends with debate season now in the rearview mirror and just 11 days until the voting phase of the 2020 presidential election concludes. And while Friday saw a slowing down of the pace of polling releases witnessed over the last three days, it was still a fairly busy day with 13 new surveys from 10 states representing all but the Strong Biden category. Despite the new data, the race ends the work week where it began with Georgia on the Biden side of the partisan line and a sizable projected advantage in the electoral vote tally.
On to the polls...
Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona
(Biden 46, Trump 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +2.97]
Susquehanna has fielded some of the most Trump-friendly polls in recent weeks and that was true of the firm's Arizona survey released today. Favorable (relative to other polling) to one candidate or not, this poll had both the president and Joe Biden losing support compared to the last Susquehanna poll there in September. But both polls have the race tied, so there was no net change in the race across those two surveys. And this latest one finds Trump in the core of his recent range of results in the Grand Canyon state while Biden lags toward the bottom end of his.
Florida
(Biden 49, Trump 47 via St. Pete Polls | Trump 50, Biden 46 via Pulse Opinion Research)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.27]
It was a choose one's own narrative in a pair of Florida polls released today. Like the Susquehanna poll of Arizona, the St. Pete Polls survey showed the same two point margin as the pollster's survey a week and a half ago and was, in fact, unchanged in that time. Yet, the steady picture painted by that poll was not the same one as in the Pulse Opinion Research survey. It was the firm's first poll of the Sunshine state in 2020 and stands out from other recent polls there. Trump has never led a Florida survey this year by more than four points and has only hit or surpassed 50 percent in six of the 98 polls that have been conducted in Florida in calendar 2020. That obviously puts Trump at the ver top of his range in all of Florida polling as Biden ended up far closer to the low end of his. Of the two polls, the St. Pete poll is more consistent with the current FHQ averages which project a 49-45 (rounded) Biden edge.
Iowa
(Trump 47, Biden 47)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.70]
An unusually busy polling week in Iowa ends with an update to the July RMG Research poll. While that summer survey had the president up one, it also found both candidates around 40 percent. However, both are consistent (in terms of their margins) with where the race for the Hawkeye state's six electoral votes currently is. Of the ten October polls, four have had the race tied and six of those ten have found Iowa within a point (or less). But Biden had the advantage in three of the remaining four polls that had a margin greater than one. That is why Iowa has moved in Biden's direction.
Michigan
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.00]
Back over in Michigan, the new Zia Poll matches Trump's largest lead in the Great Lakes state, matching a July Spry Strategies poll. But recall the Michigan discussion from yesterday with respect to the Trafalgar surveys there. This is just Trump's eighth lead in 114 polls conducted in Michigan in 2020. Compared to all the other polls, this one is an outlier. And like that St. Pete poll of Florida above the EPIC-MRA poll mirrors the one the firm put out last week. EPIC remains closer on the Biden number, but below where both candidates are in the FHQ averages (Biden 50-43 currently).
Back over in Michigan, the new Zia Poll matches Trump's largest lead in the Great Lakes state, matching a July Spry Strategies poll. But recall the Michigan discussion from yesterday with respect to the Trafalgar surveys there. This is just Trump's eighth lead in 114 polls conducted in Michigan in 2020. Compared to all the other polls, this one is an outlier. And like that St. Pete poll of Florida above the EPIC-MRA poll mirrors the one the firm put out last week. EPIC remains closer on the Biden number, but below where both candidates are in the FHQ averages (Biden 50-43 currently).
Montana
(Trump 49, Biden 43)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +8.40]
For the second consecutive day, there is a new poll out Montana. Yes, the Treasure state arguably remains comfortably red, but the update to the Siena/NYT Upshot series, like the Strategies 360 poll a day ago, has the gap between the two major party candidates below ten percent. What's more, Siena for the second straight poll has found Trump under 50 percent, but doesn't really mark much of a change since September. Biden did bump up a point to come more in line with his FHQ average share of support there. Comfortably red or not, Montana has had an above average shift from the 20 point margin the president enjoyed there in 2016.
North Carolina
(Biden 48, Trump 44 via Meredith College | Biden 48, Trump 44 via Data for Progress)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.84]
The two polls of the Tar Heel state show exactly the same thing, but took different routes in getting to a 48-44 Biden advantage. The Meredith poll made the transition from a register to likely voter sample and ostensibly helped the former vice president in the process. Biden rose a couple of points and the president dropped one. But while the margin expanded in the Meredith series it contracted in the Data for Progress series of polls in North Carolina. Trump remained at 44 precent for the second time in October, but Biden slid back to around where he was in the firm's August poll of the state. Both candidates, it should be said, are operating in quite tight ranges in the DfP series.
Oklahoma
(Trump 60, Biden 35) [August poll]
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +24.55]
Another day, another Sooner Poll from Oklahoma. This one is a bit outdated having been in the field there in August. But it like the other Sooner polls conducted this year has Trump hovering around 60 percent and Biden once again in the mid-30s. Its addition also does little to alter the margin in a state that is way off on the Republican end of the Spectrum below. Still, the margin in Oklahoma is much closer than it was just four years ago. That does not mean close, but there has been a shift toward the Democrats in that time.
Pennsylvania
(Biden 51, Trump 44)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.40]
The trajectory of change in the Muhlenberg series of surveys of the Keystone state has gradually moved in Biden's direction over the course of the last eight plus months. A February tie was a 49-45 Biden advantage in August. And Biden rose again from the August to October polls as the president faded a little more. Overall, the shifts have brought the current Muhlenberg poll in line with FHQ average shares of support for the two major party candidates. As of now, the former vice president holds a 50-44 (rounded) lead here on a day that saw the margin in Pennsylvania tick up.
Utah
(Trump 50, Biden 38)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +14.26]
There are some interesting dynamics at play in the polling of Utah this cycle. RMG Research and Y2 Analytics have been the most active pollsters in the Beehive state this cycle, but both started out with widely divergent numbers in polling the state. In the RMG Research series, Trump has hovered around the 50 percent mark all year as Biden has risen from the low 30s to the upper 30s now. Y2, on the other hand has until its last poll had the president below 50 percent and Biden cresting to a point above 40 percent, a level Democrats have not met in the state in years. Over time, however, the two pollsters have converged with Trump at or slightly above 50 percent and Biden approaching, but falling short of 40 percent (a bit above where Obama was in the state in 2008).
West Virginia
(Trump 58, Biden 38)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +25.98]
Finally, something may be brewing in West Virginia (or it could be that one pollster's work among a general lack of polling in that state in 2020 is somewhat deceptive). But Triton Polling and Research in its second consecutive poll has found Trump under 60 percent in the Mountain state. That is actually the third poll in a row -- including both Triton surveys -- to show that. If those latest three surveys are in any way indicative of the state of the race in West Virginia, then that would translate to Trump losing around ten points from 2016 to polling now. And that would also mean Biden moving nearly 12 points beyond where Clinton end up four years ago. That would make for a massive shift. Even if the polls are understating the president's support and it is accurate on the increased Biden support, then that Democratic side of swing equation alone would be an above average overall swing compared to the (averaged) nationwide shift in 2020 polling from election day 2016. But as it stands, including earlier, albeit discounted, polls the margin is still around Trump +26.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
DC-3
VT-3
(6)2
|
IL-20
(162)
|
WI-10
(253)
| AK-3
(125)
|
TN-11
(60)
|
MA-11
(17)
| OR-7
(169)
|
PA-203
(273 | 285)
| MO-10
(122)
|
KY-8
(49)
|
MD-10
(27)
| NJ-14
(183)
|
NV-6
(279 | 265)
| SC -9
(112)
|
AL-9
(41)
|
HI-4
(31)
|
ME-2
(185)
|
FL-29
(308 | 259)
| NE CD1-1
MT-3
(103)
|
SD-3
(32)
|
NY-29
(60)
|
CO-9
(194)
|
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
| KS-6
(99)
|
ID-4
(29)
|
CA-55
(115)
|
VA-13
(207)
|
NC-15
ME CD2-1
(335 | 219)
| NE-2
(93)
|
AR-6
(25)
|
DE-3
(118)
|
NH-4
(211)
|
GA-16
(351 | 203)
|
IN-11
(91)
|
OK-7
(19)
|
WA-12
(130)
|
NM-5
(216)
|
OH-18
(187)
|
UT-6
(80)
|
ND-3
(12)
|
ME CD1-1
CT-7
(138)
|
MN-10
(226)
|
IA-6
(169)
|
MS-6
(74)
|
WV-5
(9)
|
RI-4
(142)
| NE CD2-1
MI-16
(243)
|
TX-38
(163)
|
LA-8
(68)
|
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is. | ||||
Today was another day in which the map and Watch List remained unchanged from a day ago. But the Electoral College Spectrum saw one small change way off on the Republican end. The new, "tight" survey in West Virginia lowered the average margin in the Mountain state enough to push it one spot toward the partisan line and past North Dakota. No, that change makes no real difference in the grand scheme of things, but it is a slight change nonetheless.
Overall, this was a mostly good polling day for Biden. The average margins in six of the ten states with newly added polls moved in his direction. But two states in the Biden column and close to the partisan line -- Arizona and Florida -- shifted slightly away from the former vice president. But in reality, it was a mostly status quo maintaining day.
11 days to go.
Where things stood at FHQ on October 23 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008
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NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Potential Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Georgia
|
from Toss Up Biden
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Iowa
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Strong Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
New Mexico
|
from Strong Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Biden
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
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Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.
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Related posts:
Tuesday, October 13, 2020
The Electoral College Map (10/13/20)
Update for October 13.
There are just three weeks to go until voting concludes in the 2020 presidential election on November 3. And the more things (subtly) change, the more they stay the same. Today's batch of surveys covers the full gamut of states from Strong Biden to Strong Trump on the other end of the order on the Spectrum. There are some surprises (see West Virginia), but there were no changes either to any of the states' classifications or on which side of the partisan line they fall.
And with 21 days to go until the voting phase of the election wraps up, the fact that any day goes by without Trump cutting into Biden's advantage -- either nationally or on the state level -- is a lost day becomes more and more troubling for his reelection efforts. And the climb back is all the steeper.
On to the polls...
Polling Quick Hits:
Florida
(Biden 51, Trump 48 via Emerson | Biden 51, Trump 47 via Florida Atlantic)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.46]
Over the last month, the tie in the last in the series of Florida Atlantic surveys was broken with Biden pushing further above 50 percent and Trump falling into the upper 40s. Both candidates' shares of support are a little higher in this latest poll than in the FHQ averages, but the margin is in line with where FHQ has routinely had it over the last month or so. And the Emerson survey -- the college pollsters first conducted in the Sunshine state in calendar 2020 -- is not inconsistent with either the FAU poll or the overall average margin. Together, both maintain the status quo in Florida.
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.46]
Over the last month, the tie in the last in the series of Florida Atlantic surveys was broken with Biden pushing further above 50 percent and Trump falling into the upper 40s. Both candidates' shares of support are a little higher in this latest poll than in the FHQ averages, but the margin is in line with where FHQ has routinely had it over the last month or so. And the Emerson survey -- the college pollsters first conducted in the Sunshine state in calendar 2020 -- is not inconsistent with either the FAU poll or the overall average margin. Together, both maintain the status quo in Florida.
Missouri
(Trump 52, Biden 43)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +6.57]
YouGov was last in the field in the Show-Me state in July and little has change in the interim. Biden remained at 43 percent (which is consistent with the average Democratic showing in Missouri over the last three cycles) while Trump jumped up a couple of points. Missouri has been one of those Lean Trump states nearly all along at FHQ this cycle, and as such, is a state that is likely securely in the president's column unless the bottom truly drops out on him over the next three weeks. Unless or until then, Missouri actually looks a lot like Lean Biden states on the other side of the partisan line. That is to say, the favored candidate is hovering around 50 percent while the underdog is stuck in the lower to mid-40s.
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +6.57]
YouGov was last in the field in the Show-Me state in July and little has change in the interim. Biden remained at 43 percent (which is consistent with the average Democratic showing in Missouri over the last three cycles) while Trump jumped up a couple of points. Missouri has been one of those Lean Trump states nearly all along at FHQ this cycle, and as such, is a state that is likely securely in the president's column unless the bottom truly drops out on him over the next three weeks. Unless or until then, Missouri actually looks a lot like Lean Biden states on the other side of the partisan line. That is to say, the favored candidate is hovering around 50 percent while the underdog is stuck in the lower to mid-40s.
Nevada
(Biden 44, Trump 42)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.68]
In the Silver state, WPA Intelligence found a closer race than almost any other pollster working hard-to-poll Nevada this year. But that was perhaps less the issue than the fact that both candidates were noticeably well below their established average level of support in the state. Sure, Nevada has been underpolled, but that is not the explanation for the averages being above the shares reflected in this survey. Rather, the discrepancy is more a function of the 14 percent of the support going to other, none or undecided. At this late date in the race that is on the high side, especially when opinions on the incumbent's job approval have been as steady over the course of his presidency as they have been. The margin is not too terribly far off from the average here at FHQ, the level of support for Biden and Trump is compared to other Nevada polling.
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.68]
In the Silver state, WPA Intelligence found a closer race than almost any other pollster working hard-to-poll Nevada this year. But that was perhaps less the issue than the fact that both candidates were noticeably well below their established average level of support in the state. Sure, Nevada has been underpolled, but that is not the explanation for the averages being above the shares reflected in this survey. Rather, the discrepancy is more a function of the 14 percent of the support going to other, none or undecided. At this late date in the race that is on the high side, especially when opinions on the incumbent's job approval have been as steady over the course of his presidency as they have been. The margin is not too terribly far off from the average here at FHQ, the level of support for Biden and Trump is compared to other Nevada polling.
North Carolina
(Biden 49, Trump 48)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.67]
FHQ will once again use the low turnout assumption in the latest Monmouth poll out of North Carolina. [That has been the policy in all states in which Monmouth has been in the field this year and reported the differing versions. Using the 50-46 Biden advantage under the high turnout assumption would have only raised the margin to Biden +1.69.] But since the last poll Monmouth conducted in the Tar Heel state in early September, little has changed. Both candidates gained, but Trump tacked on an additional point more than the former vice president. But it still comes down to the same thing in North Carolina: the state remains close, but consistently tipped in Biden's direction. However, its proximity to the partisan line means that any systematic polling error favoring Biden could put the state in Trump's column on election day (or some time thereafter). The consistency of the polling would likely yield some insurance against that sort of bias however.
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.67]
FHQ will once again use the low turnout assumption in the latest Monmouth poll out of North Carolina. [That has been the policy in all states in which Monmouth has been in the field this year and reported the differing versions. Using the 50-46 Biden advantage under the high turnout assumption would have only raised the margin to Biden +1.69.] But since the last poll Monmouth conducted in the Tar Heel state in early September, little has changed. Both candidates gained, but Trump tacked on an additional point more than the former vice president. But it still comes down to the same thing in North Carolina: the state remains close, but consistently tipped in Biden's direction. However, its proximity to the partisan line means that any systematic polling error favoring Biden could put the state in Trump's column on election day (or some time thereafter). The consistency of the polling would likely yield some insurance against that sort of bias however.
Pennsylvania
(Biden 51, Trump 45 via Ipsos | Biden 47, Trump 45 via Trafalgar Group)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.49]
Both Pennsylvania polls on the day are reasonable close to the 44 percent share that the president currently holds in the Keystone state at FHQ. But they differ on just where the vice president is. And that was true of the last round of polling from each firm. Biden gained point on his margin in the Ipsos poll and added a point to his share (but Trump did too) in the Trafalgar survey. But it is the Ipsos poll that is closer to Biden's 50 percent share (rounded) in the FHQ averages. Pennsylvania remains the tipping point in the order below on the Electoral College Spectrum and is still five points out of the president's reach. That has not changed much over the last several weeks, but to the extent it has, it has moved in the Democratic nominee's direction.
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.49]
Both Pennsylvania polls on the day are reasonable close to the 44 percent share that the president currently holds in the Keystone state at FHQ. But they differ on just where the vice president is. And that was true of the last round of polling from each firm. Biden gained point on his margin in the Ipsos poll and added a point to his share (but Trump did too) in the Trafalgar survey. But it is the Ipsos poll that is closer to Biden's 50 percent share (rounded) in the FHQ averages. Pennsylvania remains the tipping point in the order below on the Electoral College Spectrum and is still five points out of the president's reach. That has not changed much over the last several weeks, but to the extent it has, it has moved in the Democratic nominee's direction.
Washington
(Biden 55, Trump 34)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +24.64]
Survey USA was back in the field with a fourth update to its series of surveys in the Evergreen state. And while this survey would seemingly demonstrated a fairly marked narrowing of the race since the last poll in July, that poll was conducted during the tail end of the Biden's polling surge across the country. That is not to dismiss a change that could be an actual tightening of the gap between Biden and Trump, but this new poll is more in line with the previous two Survey USA polls from back in the spring. All had the former vice president's lead in the 20s, but this latest survey does find Biden at his lowest point in all 2020 Washington state polling. Trump, on the other hand, is right on his FHQ average share of support in the survey.
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +24.64]
Survey USA was back in the field with a fourth update to its series of surveys in the Evergreen state. And while this survey would seemingly demonstrated a fairly marked narrowing of the race since the last poll in July, that poll was conducted during the tail end of the Biden's polling surge across the country. That is not to dismiss a change that could be an actual tightening of the gap between Biden and Trump, but this new poll is more in line with the previous two Survey USA polls from back in the spring. All had the former vice president's lead in the 20s, but this latest survey does find Biden at his lowest point in all 2020 Washington state polling. Trump, on the other hand, is right on his FHQ average share of support in the survey.
West Virginia
(Trump 53, Biden 39)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +27.09]
If the gap closing in the Washington poll was surprising, then the Research America, Inc. survey of the Mountain state is even more shocking than the poll released there a week ago. Both show a safe Trump lead, but a significant erosion of his polling support there relative to the results in 2016. Biden is 13 points ahead of Clinton's 2016 pace in this survey, but Trump is lagging 15 points behind his. That represents a massive swing from four years ago. It is also probably a little too massive. But that is two polls in a row putting the race in West Virginia at less than Trump +20. Still, West Virginia has been sporadically surveyed in 2020, and the average remains very comfortably Trump-favorable.
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +27.09]
If the gap closing in the Washington poll was surprising, then the Research America, Inc. survey of the Mountain state is even more shocking than the poll released there a week ago. Both show a safe Trump lead, but a significant erosion of his polling support there relative to the results in 2016. Biden is 13 points ahead of Clinton's 2016 pace in this survey, but Trump is lagging 15 points behind his. That represents a massive swing from four years ago. It is also probably a little too massive. But that is two polls in a row putting the race in West Virginia at less than Trump +20. Still, West Virginia has been sporadically surveyed in 2020, and the average remains very comfortably Trump-favorable.
Wisconsin
(Biden 52, Trump 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.28]
It was not that long ago that Ipsos conducted a survey in the Badger state and in that week, suffice it to say, not much has changed. Biden continues to crest above the 50 percent mark and is in the mid-40s. Both are above their established FHQ average level of support here, but again, that is attributable to the fact that election day is approaching. And as November 3 grows nearer, one should expect the candidates to more regularly come in above their averages in the polls. But Wisconsin is one of those blue wall states that has been consistent, consistently about Biden +6 of late. And this survey is in line with that.
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.28]
It was not that long ago that Ipsos conducted a survey in the Badger state and in that week, suffice it to say, not much has changed. Biden continues to crest above the 50 percent mark and is in the mid-40s. Both are above their established FHQ average level of support here, but again, that is attributable to the fact that election day is approaching. And as November 3 grows nearer, one should expect the candidates to more regularly come in above their averages in the polls. But Wisconsin is one of those blue wall states that has been consistent, consistently about Biden +6 of late. And this survey is in line with that.
Morning Consult (October wave in presidential/Senate battlegrounds)
South Carolina: Trump +12 (Biden -2, Trump +4 since September survey separate from wave cited below) [Current FHQ margin: Trump +6.51]
Ohio: Trump +3 (Biden +1, Trump -1 since September wave) [Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.55]
Texas: Trump +2 (Biden +1, Trump +3) [Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.69]
Georgia: Trump +2 (Biden +1, Trump +1) [Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.21]
Arizona: Biden +3 (Biden +/-0, Trump +/-0) [Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.12]
North Carolina: Biden +4 (Biden +2, Trump -1)
Florida: Biden +5 (Biden +1, Trump +1)
Minnesota: Biden +6 (Biden +1, Trump +/-0) [Current FHQ margin: Biden +8.31]
Wisconsin: Biden +7 (Biden +/-0, Trump +1)
Michigan: Biden +7 (Biden -1, Trump +2) [Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.16]
Pennsylvania: Biden +8 (Biden +2, Trump -1)
Colorado: Biden +14 (Biden +5, Trump +3) [Current FHQ margin: Biden +12.87]
FHQ will not dwell too much on this wave of polls from Morning Consult. The two bookends are in the correct order, but everything else in between is a jumbled mess compared to the established order of states in the Spectrum below. But in the end, the margins are not off by a whole lot; some but not a lot. And most states saw a two point change or less since the wave last month. Michigan and North Carolina both saw a three point change but in opposite directions (toward Biden in North Carolina and toward Trump in Michigan). And the South Carolina lead doubled for Trump in the last three weeks, but to a level that is out of tune with most polling in the Palmetto state. But overall there is something incongruous about this batch of surveys.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
DC-3
VT-3
(6)2
|
IL-20
(162)
|
WI-10
(253)
|
SC-9
(125)
|
TN-11
(60)
|
MA-11
(17)
| OR-7
(169)
|
PA-203
(273 | 285)
| MO-10
(116)
|
KY-8
(49)
|
MD-10
(27)
| NJ-14
(183)
|
NV-6
(279 | 265)
| AK-3
(116)
|
AL-9
(41)
|
CA-55
(82)
|
ME-2
(185)
|
FL-29
(308 | 259)
|
KS-6
(103)
|
SD-3
(32)
|
NY-29
(111)
|
CO-9
(194)
|
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
|
NE CD1-1
MT-3
(97) |
ID-4
(29)
|
HI-4
(115)
|
VA-13
(207)
|
NC-15
ME CD2-1
(335 | 219)
|
NE-2
(93)
|
AR-6
(25)
|
DE-3
(118)
|
NH-4
(211)
|
GA-16
(203)
|
IN-11
(91)
|
OK-7
(19)
|
WA-12
(130)
|
NM-5
(216)
|
OH-18
(187)
|
UT-6
(80)
|
ND-3
(12)
|
ME CD1-1
CT-7
(138)
|
MN-10
(226)
|
IA-6
(169)
|
MS-6
(74)
|
WV-5
(9)
|
RI-4
(142)
| NE CD2-1
MI-16
(243)
|
TX-38
(163)
|
LA-8
(68)
|
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is. | ||||
Despite all of that newly imported data -- especially the eye openers in Washington and West Virginia -- nothing changed on the day. The map, Spectrum and Watch List all stayed exactly as they were a day ago. And again, that is another day that has gone by without the president making any noticeable ground up on the former vice president's steady lead in this race.
Three weeks to go.
Where things stood at FHQ on October 13 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008
--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Potential Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Georgia
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Strong Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
New Mexico
|
from Strong Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Biden
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.
--
Related posts:
Wednesday, October 7, 2020
The Electoral College Map (10/7/20)
Update for October 7.
And honestly, that is to be expected with the graduated weighted average that FHQ has utilized for four presidential election cycles now. If a race is steady like 2012 was (and to some lesser degree 2020 is), then the average will guard against any wild fluctuations created by temporary polling changes. It was around this time in 2012 that Romney slipped into the lead in national polls. But at FHQ the projection never changed. Florida got close to switching into Romney territory after that first debate, but never quite did and stayed in Obama's column down the stretch.
Now, whether 2020 remains steady like 2012 remains an open question. What FHQ calls temporary polling changes above may not prove to be all that temporary. It could be evidence of the dam beginning to break on the president. But with 27 days until election day, there should be enough time and enough polling where it matters to bring the graduated weighted averages along. In the best case, things break late here, confirming any long term changes between now and election day. The worst case looks more like the misses in 2016, when the shift occurred late as a larger pool of undecideds broke and state-level polling never really reflected that.
In any event, the mantra around here with respect to the averages is that when a change occurs in the polling, it tends to create a lasting change in the averages.
On to the polls...
Polling Quick Hits:
Nevada
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.
There was so much to look at polling-wise on the day that debate season resumes. However, there was nary a change across the graphics at FHQ. The map and Watch List -- those states within a fraction of a point of changing categories -- remained exactly as they were yesterday. Only Missouri, on the strength of that new GHY survey, pushed past Alaska and closer to the partisan line separating both candidates coalitions of states. But that group of Alaska, Missouri and South Carolina are fairly tightly clustered on the lower end of the Lean Trump category, but just off the Watch List. None of the three are likely to fall to the Democrats unless the bottom truly drops out on Trump, but that Lean/Toss Up line on Trump's side is probably the cut off point. Texas is potentially achievable for Biden but it is the last state in the order that is likely to flip blue in November. That is not to say that Texas will or will not flip, but it is likely Biden's high water mark in a landslide scenario (again, unless the dam breaks on Trump).
Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona
Florida(Biden 48, Trump 43 via Data Orbital | Biden 48, Trump 46 via Ipsos)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.21]
Both Data Orbital and Ipsos conducted polls in Arizona in mid-September, but only the survey from Data Orbital saw any significant change in the time since then. While Biden remained steady, Trump share of support dropped off just below his average share of support at FHQ. But both of these surveys were on target on Biden's current average level of support in the state.
Both Data Orbital and Ipsos conducted polls in Arizona in mid-September, but only the survey from Data Orbital saw any significant change in the time since then. While Biden remained steady, Trump share of support dropped off just below his average share of support at FHQ. But both of these surveys were on target on Biden's current average level of support in the state.
(Biden 49, Trump 44 via Cherry Communications | Biden 51, Trump 40 via Quinnipiac | Biden 49, Trump 45 via Ipsos)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.48]
The Sunshine state saw a trio of releases on the day and all were from firms who had previously been in the field there. The attention is clearly going to gravitate toward the Quinnipiac survey where Biden grew his support while Trump saw his decline. But this latest Q-poll look a lot more like the survey the school released in July during Biden's polling surge. Does this hail a return to that? It may be a signal, but it could also be an outlier. That will not become clear until more polling is done. The trajectory of the movement in the other two surveys also moved in Biden's direction but in a much more muted way than through the Quinnipiac lens. Florida's average margin fell into the threes, but has plateaued there recently and may even be reversing course some.
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.48]
The Sunshine state saw a trio of releases on the day and all were from firms who had previously been in the field there. The attention is clearly going to gravitate toward the Quinnipiac survey where Biden grew his support while Trump saw his decline. But this latest Q-poll look a lot more like the survey the school released in July during Biden's polling surge. Does this hail a return to that? It may be a signal, but it could also be an outlier. That will not become clear until more polling is done. The trajectory of the movement in the other two surveys also moved in Biden's direction but in a much more muted way than through the Quinnipiac lens. Florida's average margin fell into the threes, but has plateaued there recently and may even be reversing course some.
Iowa
(Biden 48, Trump 47 via Civiqs | Biden 50, Trump 45 via Quinnipiac)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.10]
Further north in the Hawkeye state, the margin may still narrowly favor the president, butBiden led in a couple of new surveys. This is the first time that Quinnipiac has been in the field in Iowa, but it has the former vice president ahead by his largest margin there all cycle (minus a June Binder poll with only 200 respondents where Biden was up six). Like the Florida Q-poll above, this one should be taken with a grain of salt for the time being. It may be a harbinger of things to come, but could also just be overly rosy for the Democratic nominee. Civiqs had conducted an Iowa poll before and during June in the window of Biden's surge. The poll then was was a dead heat, and this latest one is as well, although Biden has the narrow edge. This one is more in line with where FHQ's averages have the race currently pegged,
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.10]
Further north in the Hawkeye state, the margin may still narrowly favor the president, butBiden led in a couple of new surveys. This is the first time that Quinnipiac has been in the field in Iowa, but it has the former vice president ahead by his largest margin there all cycle (minus a June Binder poll with only 200 respondents where Biden was up six). Like the Florida Q-poll above, this one should be taken with a grain of salt for the time being. It may be a harbinger of things to come, but could also just be overly rosy for the Democratic nominee. Civiqs had conducted an Iowa poll before and during June in the window of Biden's surge. The poll then was was a dead heat, and this latest one is as well, although Biden has the narrow edge. This one is more in line with where FHQ's averages have the race currently pegged,
Maryland
(Biden 61, Trump 32)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +31.72]
One could split hairs and say that the Change Research survey of Maryland was off the mark in understating Biden's share of support in the Old Line state, but it was only by a couple of points. Otherwise, this one looks a lot like where the race currently stands for Maryland's ten electoral votes.
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +31.72]
One could split hairs and say that the Change Research survey of Maryland was off the mark in understating Biden's share of support in the Old Line state, but it was only by a couple of points. Otherwise, this one looks a lot like where the race currently stands for Maryland's ten electoral votes.
Michigan
(Biden 51, Trump 43)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.10]
Ipsos was also in the field in Michigan for the first time since mid-September and found a race that had moved in Biden's direction but only modestly. The former vice president gained a couple of points to crack 50 percent again. That mark is important because it would close the door on the state's 16 electoral votes if Biden can get there on election day. Of the 16 polls conducted since that last Ipsos poll of the Great Lakes state, 12 have had the former vice president over the majority mark. Furthermore, he is approaching that level in the averages.
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.10]
Ipsos was also in the field in Michigan for the first time since mid-September and found a race that had moved in Biden's direction but only modestly. The former vice president gained a couple of points to crack 50 percent again. That mark is important because it would close the door on the state's 16 electoral votes if Biden can get there on election day. Of the 16 polls conducted since that last Ipsos poll of the Great Lakes state, 12 have had the former vice president over the majority mark. Furthermore, he is approaching that level in the averages.
Missouri
(Trump 50, Biden 48)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +6.37]
The only other time Garin-Hart-Yang were in the field in the Show-Me state was back in June. And although that falls in the period during Biden's rise in the polls across the country, it was also the only time in calendar 2020 that a survey had the Democratic nominee in the lead in Missouri. What was an outlier then is probably a little less so now. But this one still has Trump running just below his average there and Biden more than three points above his. Missouri has already shown to be be closer in 2020 than in 2016, but likely not this close.
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +6.37]
The only other time Garin-Hart-Yang were in the field in the Show-Me state was back in June. And although that falls in the period during Biden's rise in the polls across the country, it was also the only time in calendar 2020 that a survey had the Democratic nominee in the lead in Missouri. What was an outlier then is probably a little less so now. But this one still has Trump running just below his average there and Biden more than three points above his. Missouri has already shown to be be closer in 2020 than in 2016, but likely not this close.
(Biden 48, Trump 42)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.62]
Outside of the two Fox News polls, this Siena/NYT Upshot survey has Biden up by his largest margin in the Silver state in calendar 2020. But this one is also not all that inconsistent with the firm's September poll in underpolled Nevada. Biden's share of support rose by a couple of points to match his FHQ average share of support. The president, meanwhile, remained at 42 percent, lagging a couple of points behind his. The introduction of the four waves of Survey Monkey polls over the weekend took Nevada off the Watch List, but polls like these will have it tracking back in that direction.
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.62]
Outside of the two Fox News polls, this Siena/NYT Upshot survey has Biden up by his largest margin in the Silver state in calendar 2020. But this one is also not all that inconsistent with the firm's September poll in underpolled Nevada. Biden's share of support rose by a couple of points to match his FHQ average share of support. The president, meanwhile, remained at 42 percent, lagging a couple of points behind his. The introduction of the four waves of Survey Monkey polls over the weekend took Nevada off the Watch List, but polls like these will have it tracking back in that direction.
North Carolina
(Biden 47, Trump 47)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.51]
FHQ has gotten in the habit of saying North Carolina is close. And it is. This Ipsos poll does little to dislodge the Tar Heel state from that category. Nor does the fact that the race has been stable in the time since the firm's September poll of the state. A race knotted at 47 then is the same now. Neither diverges much from the 47-46 (rounded) advantage Biden consistently holds there.
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.51]
FHQ has gotten in the habit of saying North Carolina is close. And it is. This Ipsos poll does little to dislodge the Tar Heel state from that category. Nor does the fact that the race has been stable in the time since the firm's September poll of the state. A race knotted at 47 then is the same now. Neither diverges much from the 47-46 (rounded) advantage Biden consistently holds there.
Ohio
(Biden 45, Trump 44)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.40]
This is the first time Siena/NYT Upshot has ventured into the Buckeye state to gauge preferences in the race for the state's 18 electoral votes. What the firm found was a close race with Biden marginally ahead. That differs from the current margin that continues to show the president in the lead by a sliver of a point, and does so with both candidates running below their established FHQ average shares of support. But that is attributable to the still high number of undecideds, a common thread in these Siena polls conducted in conjunction with the Upshot. Despite that, this survey nudged Ohio a bit closer to the partisan line.
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.40]
This is the first time Siena/NYT Upshot has ventured into the Buckeye state to gauge preferences in the race for the state's 18 electoral votes. What the firm found was a close race with Biden marginally ahead. That differs from the current margin that continues to show the president in the lead by a sliver of a point, and does so with both candidates running below their established FHQ average shares of support. But that is attributable to the still high number of undecideds, a common thread in these Siena polls conducted in conjunction with the Upshot. Despite that, this survey nudged Ohio a bit closer to the partisan line.
(Biden 51, Trump 47 via Emerson | Biden 54, Trump 41 via Quinnipiac)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.49]
Like several other states, Pennsylvania, too, had a couple of poll releases on the day. Both were repeat offenders, having previously conducted surveys in the commonwealth. Unlike the other two states with Quinnipiac polls, the change poll over poll in the Keystone state was not to the same degree. In fact, there has been one common thread across the three Q-polls of Pennsylvania in 2020: they have all had Biden at or above 50 percent and all have had Trump in the low 40s. The lead certainly widened since the early September poll, but not like in Florida (even if both new polls resembled one another). The Emerson update looks similar to the August survey, but this one included third party candidates. That aside, Trump stayed at 47 percent, but Biden dropped a couple of points.
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.49]
Like several other states, Pennsylvania, too, had a couple of poll releases on the day. Both were repeat offenders, having previously conducted surveys in the commonwealth. Unlike the other two states with Quinnipiac polls, the change poll over poll in the Keystone state was not to the same degree. In fact, there has been one common thread across the three Q-polls of Pennsylvania in 2020: they have all had Biden at or above 50 percent and all have had Trump in the low 40s. The lead certainly widened since the early September poll, but not like in Florida (even if both new polls resembled one another). The Emerson update looks similar to the August survey, but this one included third party candidates. That aside, Trump stayed at 47 percent, but Biden dropped a couple of points.
Texas
(Biden 48, Trump 48 via Civiqs | Biden 49, Trump 49 via EMC Research)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.61]
Both new surveys in the Lone Star state had the two candidates running above their established average shares of support but also showed a decreasing number of undecideds. That continues to be something to watch as election day nears: where those undecided respondents end up. Biden has had polling leads in Texas throughout the summer, but if undecideds smooth things out for both candidates and draw this race closer to a tie, then that is a potentially huge development with 38 electoral votes on the line. That the Trump campaign and Republicans are being made to spend in Texas at all (or simply rely on past Republican support to get Trump over the line without the spending) says much about the state of this race for the White House. Again, if Texas is among the most competitive states on election day, then Biden is likely sitting pretty in his quest for 270.
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.61]
Both new surveys in the Lone Star state had the two candidates running above their established average shares of support but also showed a decreasing number of undecideds. That continues to be something to watch as election day nears: where those undecided respondents end up. Biden has had polling leads in Texas throughout the summer, but if undecideds smooth things out for both candidates and draw this race closer to a tie, then that is a potentially huge development with 38 electoral votes on the line. That the Trump campaign and Republicans are being made to spend in Texas at all (or simply rely on past Republican support to get Trump over the line without the spending) says much about the state of this race for the White House. Again, if Texas is among the most competitive states on election day, then Biden is likely sitting pretty in his quest for 270.
West Virginia
(Trump 56, Biden 38)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +30.11]
Much has and will be made of the 18 point Trump advantage in the new Triton Polling and Research of the Mountain state. And on the surface, it is jarring. The president won West Virginia by 42 points in 2016, so a 24 point swing is no small thing. But it is a massive outlier if things look like this on election day. The current average swing from the 2016 election to polling now is about six and three-quarters points toward the Democrats. This sort of change in West Virginia would be way above average. But there have been clunker polls elsewhere in red states in 2020 as well. The four point Trump lead in Alabama from Tyson Group in August comes to mind. One should expect the margin in West Virginia to be closer in 2020 than in 2016 on the notion of a uniform swing toward the Democrats alone. But it likely will not be quite this acute.
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +30.11]
Much has and will be made of the 18 point Trump advantage in the new Triton Polling and Research of the Mountain state. And on the surface, it is jarring. The president won West Virginia by 42 points in 2016, so a 24 point swing is no small thing. But it is a massive outlier if things look like this on election day. The current average swing from the 2016 election to polling now is about six and three-quarters points toward the Democrats. This sort of change in West Virginia would be way above average. But there have been clunker polls elsewhere in red states in 2020 as well. The four point Trump lead in Alabama from Tyson Group in August comes to mind. One should expect the margin in West Virginia to be closer in 2020 than in 2016 on the notion of a uniform swing toward the Democrats alone. But it likely will not be quite this acute.
(Biden 47, Trump 42)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.12]
Last but not least, solid Marquette Law School updated the state of the race in the Badger state for the first time since early September and continued to show a steady race. Both candidates lost a little off of their September support, but Biden slightly increased his advantage in that time. This one is not far off the average margin, but it does have both candidates falling short of their average shares of support, but Biden a bit more so. Trump will not need Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to get to 270, but he will need one of them and Pennsylvania sits closer to the partisan line right now than the other two. But it remains more than five points out of the president's grasp and is drifting further away.
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.12]
Last but not least, solid Marquette Law School updated the state of the race in the Badger state for the first time since early September and continued to show a steady race. Both candidates lost a little off of their September support, but Biden slightly increased his advantage in that time. This one is not far off the average margin, but it does have both candidates falling short of their average shares of support, but Biden a bit more so. Trump will not need Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to get to 270, but he will need one of them and Pennsylvania sits closer to the partisan line right now than the other two. But it remains more than five points out of the president's grasp and is drifting further away.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
DC-3
VT-3
(6)2
|
IL-20
(162)
|
WI-10
(253)
|
SC-9
(125)
|
TN-11
(60)
|
MA-11
(17)
|
NJ-14
(176)
|
PA-203
(273 | 285)
| MO-10
(116)
|
KY-8
(49)
|
MD-10
(27)
|
OR-7
(183)
|
NV-6
(279 | 265)
| AK-3
(116)
|
AL-9
(41)
|
CA-55
(82)
|
ME-2
(185)
|
FL-29
(308 | 259)
|
KS-6
(103)
|
SD-3
(32)
|
NY-29
(111)
|
CO-9
(194)
|
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
|
NE CD1-1
MT-3
(97) |
ID-4
(29)
|
HI-4
(115)
|
VA-13
(207)
|
NC-15
ME CD2-1
(335 | 219)
|
NE-2
(93)
|
AR-6
(25)
|
DE-3
(118)
|
NH-4
(211)
|
GA-16
(203)
|
IN-11
(91)
|
OK-7
(19)
|
WA-12
(130)
|
NM-5
(216)
|
OH-18
(187)
|
UT-6
(80)
|
ND-3
(12)
|
ME CD1-1
CT-7
(138)
|
MN-10
(226)
|
IA-6
(169)
|
MS-6
(74)
|
WV-5
(9)
|
RI-4
(142)
|
MI-16
NE CD2-1
(243)
|
TX-38
(163)
|
LA-8
(68)
|
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics. 3 Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is. | ||||
There was so much to look at polling-wise on the day that debate season resumes. However, there was nary a change across the graphics at FHQ. The map and Watch List -- those states within a fraction of a point of changing categories -- remained exactly as they were yesterday. Only Missouri, on the strength of that new GHY survey, pushed past Alaska and closer to the partisan line separating both candidates coalitions of states. But that group of Alaska, Missouri and South Carolina are fairly tightly clustered on the lower end of the Lean Trump category, but just off the Watch List. None of the three are likely to fall to the Democrats unless the bottom truly drops out on Trump, but that Lean/Toss Up line on Trump's side is probably the cut off point. Texas is potentially achievable for Biden but it is the last state in the order that is likely to flip blue in November. That is not to say that Texas will or will not flip, but it is likely Biden's high water mark in a landslide scenario (again, unless the dam breaks on Trump).
27 days to go.
Where things stood at FHQ on October 7 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008
--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.
--
Related posts:
Where things stood at FHQ on October 7 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008
--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Potential Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Georgia
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Strong Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
New Mexico
|
from Strong Biden
|
to Lean Biden
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Biden
|
to Toss Up Biden
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.
--
Related posts:
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