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Monday, November 2, 2020

The Electoral College Map (11/2/20)

Update for November 2.

There is just one last day until election day and this first Monday before the first Tuesday in November saw an absolute wave of new polling data. FHQ has opted to break it all up. Today the focus will be on the six core battlegrounds: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Tomorrow, on election day, there will be a shift toward one final projection encompassing all of the other new, last minute polling data and any other stragglers in these six states.

As FHQ noted over the weekend, it was/is going to take a lot to move the needle down the stretch in any state, much less the core battlegrounds that have witnessed by far the most polling activity all year. And that is borne out in what follows. Yes, Arizona and Florida traded spots in the order yesterday, but both remained on the Biden side of the partisan line. No, neither is there comfortably. They both continue to fall under Biden +3. [But the two states did revert to form today with Florida nudging past Arizona away from the partisan line.] Everything else, however remains the same with respect to the order of these states. There was some subtle shifting in this last mega-batch of surveys, but the order (from most to least Biden favorable) is intact: Michigan > Wisconsin > Pennsylvania > Florida > Arizona > North Carolina. The same Rust Belt/Sun Belt divide that has been evident nearly throughout these updates continues right up to the last day in the run up to the end of the voting phase of this campaign.

Below FHQ will go through a pretty simple checklist with each of the six battlegrounds:

1. Who did the movement within polls -- from the preceding poll to the most recent -- benefit?

2. How many times did Biden hit 50 percent in this last wave of polls? [Interestingly or not, this metric actually pretty closely mirrors the order in the FHQ average margins.]

On to the polls...

Polling Quick Hits:

Arizona

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +2.82]

Ipsos: Biden 47, Trump 47 in poll last week

Marist: Biden 50, Trump 45 in July poll

Change Research: Biden 51, Trump 45 in mid-October poll

Data for Progress: Biden 49, Trump 45 in September poll

Morning Consult: Trump 48, Biden 47 in mid-October poll

Data Orbital: Biden 47, Trump 42 in mid-October poll

Redfield and Wilton: Biden 49, Trump 43 in early October poll

In Arizona, most of the last minute movement was toward President Trump. They were not big shifts, but in five of the seven polls that had a previous survey in the series, Trump gained ground. Yet, Biden was over 50 percent in the final poll in four of the seven pollsters with new surveys in the Grand Canyon state. But the former vice president's average lead ticked down a few one-hundredths of a point on the final day before election day.

Florida

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +2.92]

Insider Advantage: Trump 46, Biden 43 in early October poll

No previous AYTM poll

Change Research: Biden 51, Trump 44 in mid-October poll

Quinnipiac: Biden 45, Trump 42 in late October poll

Ipsos: Biden 48, Trump 47 in poll last week

Data for Progress: Biden 46, Trump 43 in September poll

No previous Frederick poll

Morning Consult: Biden 52, Trump 45 in mid-October poll

No previous Targoz poll

Redfield and Wilton: Biden 49, Trump 44 in early October poll

In the Sunshine state, the picture was a bit more muddled. Trump closed the gap in some polls (three) as they transitioned to their last surveys, but Biden widened his in a nearly equivalent number of polls (two). And the status quo carried over in another couple pollsters final snapshots. But importantly, the former vice president hit or exceeded 50 percent in seven of the ten surveys and saw his FHQ average margin push up (and past Arizona in the order) on the final day before the election.

Michigan

(Biden 50, Trump 43 via Research Company | Biden 51, Trump 44 via Change Research | Trump 48, Biden 46 via Trafalgar Group | Biden 48, Trump 46 via AtlasIntel | Biden 52, Trump 45 via Morning Consult | Biden 53, Trump 39 via Targoz Marketing Research | Biden 54, Trump 41 via Redfield and Wilton Strategies)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.28]

No previous Research Company poll

Change Research: Biden 51, Trump 44 in mid-October poll

Trafalgar: Trump 49, Biden 47 in late October poll

No previous AtlasIntel poll

Morning Consult: Biden 52, Trump 44 in mid-October poll

No previous Targoz poll

Redfield and Wilton: Biden 50, Trump 42 in early October poll

The story was quite similar in Michigan as compared to Florida. More polls remained exactly the same from next to last to last poll in the sequence than moved toward Biden or Trump in that transition. And Biden was at or over 50 percent in five of the seven surveys. Yet, the Democratic nominee's average advantage in the Great Lakes state slightly shrunk while his average share of support remained north of 50 percent here at FHQ.

North Carolina

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.81]

Change Research: Biden 50, Trump 47 in mid-October poll

Ipsos: Biden 49, Trump 48 in poll last week

Data for Progress: Biden 48, Trump 44 in mid-October poll

No previous Frederick poll

Morning Consult: Biden 50, Trump 47 in mid-October poll

Redfield and Wilton: Biden 49, Trump 44 in early October poll

As in Arizona, most of the final movement in the surveys of the Tar Heel state was toward Trump. More polls (four) had the president making up ground in their final iterations than was the case for Biden (one). And befitting North Carolina's status among these six states as the closest, Biden only reached or surpassed 50 percent in half of the six surveys that were released on the Monday prior to election day. As has been the case all along, North Carolina is close, but is and has been consistently tipped toward the Democratic nominee throughout the summer and into the fall. And his FHQ average lead over the president nudged up on the final day.

Pennsylvania

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.22]

Susquehanna: Biden 44, Trump 42 in September poll

Pulse Opinion Research: Biden 50, Trump 47 in mid-October poll

No previous Research Company poll

No previous AYTM poll

Marist: Biden 53, Trump 44 in September poll

Change Research: Biden 49, Trump 47 in mid-October poll

Monmouth: Biden 53, Trump 45 in early October poll

No previous Data for Progress poll

No previous Frederick poll

Trafalgar: Trump 48, Biden 48 in poll last week

Morning Consult: Biden 52, Trump 43 in mid-October poll

No previous Targoz poll

Redfield and Wilton: Biden 49, Trump 42 in early October poll

There is a distinction to be made, FHQ thinks, in looking at these battlegrounds between Trump turning things around and merely making up ground. The latter is most often about partisans -- partisan leaners and/or undecideds -- coming home as election day nears. Much of what appears to be happening in this wave of surveys is the latter. Biden is relatively stationary in most of these states and in polls where Trump made gains, it is about closing the gap rather than taking the lead. Pennsylvania is probably the best microcosm of this. And that is fitting since the Keystone state is still the pivotal state in the order on the Electoral College Spectrum below. Most of the movement in the polling of the commonwealth represented here (at least where there was a prior survey) shifted things toward Trump. However, in this wave of 13 new polls, Biden was at or over 50 percent in 11 of them. That is some striking consensus across a number of polls/series of polls. Voters are going to vote and actually decide this election, but one would rather be the Biden campaign than the Trump campaign ending it in Pennsylvania above 50 percent. Of course, the former vice president falls just short of the majority mark in his average share of support in the Keystone state (49.8 percent), failing to match Michigan and Wisconsin on that count.

Wisconsin

(Biden 50, Trump 42 via Research Company | Biden 53, Trump 45 via Change Research | Biden 54, Trump 41 via Morning Consult | Biden 53, Trump 41 via Redfield and Wilton Strategies)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.61]

No previous Research Company poll

Change Research: Biden 52, Trump 44 in mid-October poll

Morning Consult: Biden 54, Trump 42 in mid-October poll

Redfield and Wilton: Biden 51, Trump 41 in early October poll

Survey activity has slowed down considerably in Wisconsin as election day has approached. The Badger state is still among these core battleground states, but there is a reason polling has decreased: all of the movement is in Biden's direction. More importantly, perhaps, the Democratic nominee was at or north of 50 percent in all four new polls released in Wisconsin today. And, again, Biden's average share there is over the majority mark as well.

NOTE:

A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum¹
DC-3 VT-3 (6)²	NJ-14 (156)	NE CD2-1 WI-10 (253)	AK-3 (125)	TN-11 (60)
MA-11 (17)	OR-7 (163)	PA-20³ (273 \| 285)	MO-10 (122)	KY-8 (49)
MD-10 (27)	IL-20 (183)	NV-6 (279 \| 265)	SC -9 (112)	SD-3 (41)
HI-4 (31)	ME-2 (185)	FL-29 (308 \| 259)	MT-3 NE CD1-1 (103)	AL-9 (38)
NY-29 (60)	CO-9 (194)	AZ-11 (319 \| 230)	KS-6 (99)	ID-4 (29)
CA-55 (115)	VA-13 (207)	ME CD2-1 NC-15 (335 \| 219)	IN-11 (93)	AR-6 (25)
DE-3 (118)	NH-4 (211)	GA-16 (351 \| 203)	NE-2 (82)	OK-7 (19)
WA-12 (130)	NM-5 (216)	IA-6 (187)	UT-6 (80)	ND-3 (12)
CT-7 ME CD1-1 (138)	MN-10 (226)	OH-18 (181)	MS-6 (74)	WV-5 (9)
RI-4 (142)	MI-16 (242)	TX-38 (163)	LA-8 (68)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
¹ Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. ² The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics. ³ Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

These 47 new surveys from the six core battlegrounds tell a similar tale to the one that has been told throughout the summer and into the fall of this race for the White House. Biden is ahead and ahead in this group of states in an order that has been established and maintained here at FHQ. The math of this in view of the 270 electoral votes necessary to claim the White House is simple enough. If this is how things shake out tomorrow in these states, then Biden will win. Trump has to have the three Sun Belt states that are now Biden toss ups and pick off at least one of those Rust Belt states in order to successfully defend his 2016 win. And Pennsylvania as the tipping point is the most likely of those three states. In fact, that is where the campaigns have turned their attention as the days in this race have dwindled.

1 day to go.

Where things stood at FHQ a day before election day (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008

--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

State	Potential Switch
The Watch List¹
Georgia	from Toss Up Biden	to Toss Up Trump
Iowa	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Kansas	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Nevada	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
New Hampshire	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
New Mexico	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
¹ Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.

--
Recent posts:

The Electoral College Map (11/1/20)

Happy Halloween, 2020

The Electoral College Map (10/31/20)

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Saturday, October 31, 2020

The Electoral College Map (10/31/20)

Update for October 31.

The sleepy weekend a week ago has given way to a busier Saturday this time around with just three days to go until election day on Tuesday. If one follows the path laid by yesterday's update, then all eyes are on Georgia, Iowa and Ohio as within range of jumping the partisan line. But the day offered no new polls from either of those Watch List states. However, the polling movement continued away from Biden and toward the partisan line in both Arizona and Florida. Both now have average margins here at FHQ under Biden +3. However, despite the trajectory of change, neither will make it close the Watch List between now and Tuesday. There just is not enough time nor will there be enough of a tsunami of surveys to trigger such a change. Yet, both Sun Belt states stand as states where the margins are narrowing, but Biden is increasingly hitting 50 percent in polls.

On the whole, however, the movement on the day was toward Trump. Most of that was fueled by a series of newly released Trafalgar Group polls that dominated the 14 polls from 11 different states. There will be more on that below.

On to the polls...

Polling Quick Hits:

Florida

(Biden 49, Trump 49 via AtlasIntel)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +2.98]

AtlasIntel: Biden 45, Trump 45 in March poll

The margin in the Sunshine state ticked under Biden +3 on Saturday on the weight of two polls that either favored Trump or came in under Biden's average advantage. In the latter case -- the tie in the AtlasIntall update -- the race was knotted at 49. That is a result that is not at all inconsistent with the recent Florida polling and is actually consistent with the firm's last poll there way back in March. Then, the race was tied at 45 (also among likely voters).

Minnesota

(Biden 54, Trump 43 via Public Policy Polling

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +8.30]
Public Policy Polling: Biden 52, Trump 44 in September poll

Outside of the recent Minnesota polls in the Survey USA series, the race for the 10 electoral votes on the line in the Land of 10,000 Lakes has not been particularly close. Yet, despite that and despite the fact that the margin widened in the PPP series in Minnesota since the last poll in September, both Joe Biden and Donald Trump were in the state on Friday. The former vice president's share of support in the North Star state is above 50 percent and his lead over eight points there. Minnesota and Michigan resemble one another at FHQ, but there has been three times more polling in the Great Lakes state than in Minnesota. Than again, Democrats are fighting the last battle in a way in region in 2020 after Hillary Clinton's campaign was perceived to have dropped the ball down the stretch four years ago.

Missouri

(Trump 50, Biden 45 via Remington Research)

[Current FHQ margin: Trump +6.40]

Remington: Trump 51, Biden 45 in mid-October poll

One could quibble over the one point contraction in the Remington series of polls in the Show-Me state since the last poll the firm had in the field there two weeks ago. But taking a longer view of the series, that one point change is part of a downward trajectory through the lens of Remington polls in Missouri. In the last four polls the firm has conducted there since September the Trump's margin has gradually decreased from eight to five points. But the last three have been in the Trump +5-6 point range. Missouri will be closer in 2020 than it was four years ago, but the competitiveness of the state will only bring the Show-Me state toward the Toss Up/Lean line on the Trump side of the ledger. Again, that is closer but not close enough to be a state that would tip toward Biden in even his rosiest landslide scenarios.

North Carolina

(Biden 48, Trump 45 via Meeting Street Insights)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.86]
Meeting Street: Biden 47, Trump 47 in May poll

Much of North Carolina polling operates within three points range of three points from a tie. And Meeting Street Insights actually found the race moving from a tie in its May poll to a three point Biden advantage in its latest update. Again, the race for the Tar Heel state's 15 electoral votes is close and this update did little to shake the state from its position tilted between one and two points in the former vice president's direction. It is also in line with the current 48-46 (rounded) Biden lead in the FHQ averages.

Pennsylvania

(Biden 49, Trump 44 via Muhlenberg)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.36]
Muhlenberg: Biden 51, Trump 44 in poll last week

The only thing one really needs to check in any poll of Pennsylvania is whether it breaks with the pattern of Biden landing somewhere around 50 percent with Trump in the mid-40s. The update from Muhlenberg to a survey last week checks that box, but it also saw the gap between the two major party candidates contract by a couple of points. Biden lost two points while the president remained stationary at 44 percent. Barring an onslaught of new Keystone state polling between now and election day, the margin in the commonwealth is going to end up near Biden +5 heading into Tuesday.

Texas

(Biden 50, Trump 48 via Public Policy Polling)

[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.37]

Public Policy Polling: Biden 50, Trump 49 in early October poll

Just yesterday FHQ discussed the president's proximity to 50 percent in Lone Star state polling. Trump has only been at or north of the majority mark about a fifth of the time all year in Texas, but today it is Biden who hits the mark for only the second time in 2020. And that also has now happened in the second consecutive PPP survey in the state. In the end, that may say more about PPP than about Biden and how near he is to 50 percent. Texas continues to be a state that is stuck on a 48-46 Trump lead. That is about seven points closer than in 2016 and close enough to be a toss up, but still a state that is going to fall short of ending up on the Watch List as this race draws to a close.

Virginia

(Biden 53, Trump 42 via Roanoke College)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +11.74]
Roanoke: Biden 53, Trump 38 in mid-October poll

Trump gained ground in the latest update in the Roanoke College series of polls in the Old Dominion, but that actually only served to pull him in line with the FHQ averages Virginia. Biden now leads on that count by a 53-41 (rounded) margin. If anything, the previous Roanoke polls overrated the former vice president's lead in the commonwealth. Overall, the averages in Virginia now have Biden running about three points ahead of Clinton's pace in 2016 and Trump lagging nearly three points behind his. That is a slightly below average swing from the results there in 2016 to the polling average now.

Trafalgar Group (late October battleground polls):

Arizona: Trump 49, Biden 46 (Trump 48, Biden 44 in early October poll) [Current FHQ margin: Biden +2.91]

Florida: Trump 50, Biden 47 (Trump 48, Biden 46 in mid-October poll)

Michigan: Trump 49, Biden 47 (Trump 47, Biden 45 in mid-October poll) [Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.32]

Pennsylvania: Trump 48, Biden 48 (Biden 48, Trump 46 in mid-October poll)

Wisconsin: Biden 48, Trump 47 (Biden 48, Trump 46 in mid-October poll) [Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.49]

Nevada: Biden 49, Trump 47 (No previous Trafalgar poll) [Current FHQ margin: Biden +4.50]

Minnesota: Biden 48, Trump 45 (Biden 47, Trump 47 in August poll)

Rather than take these seven polls from Trafalgar Group individually, FHQ will look at them as a group. Clearly, Trafalgar is a firm that produces some of the most Republican-friendly surveys out there, but pushing that aside -- or merely assuming that fact for that matter -- the trajectory of change in those polls is still important relative to other pollsters at work on the state-level across the country. What emerges from this batch from the firm with right-leaning results is a mixed message. There is not clear signal. Arizona and Pennsylvania narrowed, moving toward Trump poll-over-poll. Florida Michigan and Wisconsin, on the other hand, witnessed either minimal change or maintained the previous margin. And the margin in the Trafalgar series in Minnesota actually widened, helping Biden. The only tie that binds is that all seven states are within three points. Yet, at FHQ, only Arizona and Florida meet that bar, and only just barely at that.

NOTE:

A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum¹
DC-3 VT-3 (6)²	NJ-14 (156)	WI-10 (253)	AK-3 (125)	TN-11 (60)
MA-11 (17)	OR-7 (163)	PA-20³ (273 \| 285)	MO-10 (122)	KY-8 (49)
MD-10 (27)	IL-20 (183)	NV-6 (279 \| 265)	SC -9 (112)	SD-3 (41)
HI-4 (31)	ME-2 (185)	FL-29 (308 \| 259)	MT-3 NE CD1-1 (103)	AL-9 (38)
NY-29 (60)	CO-9 (194)	AZ-11 (319 \| 230)	KS-6 (99)	ID-4 (29)
CA-55 (115)	VA-13 (207)	NC-15 ME CD2-1 (335 \| 219)	IN-11 (93)	AR-6 (25)
DE-3 (118)	NH-4 (211)	GA-16 (351 \| 203)	NE-2 (82)	OK-7 (19)
WA-12 (130)	NM-5 (216)	IA-6 (187)	UT-6 (80)	ND-3 (12)
ME CD1-1 CT-7 (138)	MN-10 (226)	OH-18 (181)	MS-6 (74)	WV-5 (9)
RI-4 (142)	NE CD2-1 MI-16 (243)	TX-38 (163)	LA-8 (68)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
¹ Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. ² The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics. ³ Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

It was another day with a fair number of polls and very little to show for it at FHQ. The map and tally remain unchanged from a day ago as does the order of states depicted on the Electoral College Spectrum. And the eight state within a point of changing categories at FHQ were the same as they were at the close of business on Friday. There are some subtle movements afoot, but this still looks like a pretty steady race.

3 days to go.

Where things stood at FHQ on October 31 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008

--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

State	Potential Switch
The Watch List¹
Georgia	from Toss Up Biden	to Toss Up Trump
Iowa	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Kansas	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Nevada	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
New Hampshire	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
New Mexico	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
¹ Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

The Electoral College Map (10/30/20)

The Electoral College Map (10/29/20)

The Electoral College Map (10/28/20)

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Wednesday, October 28, 2020

The Electoral College Map (10/28/20)

Update for October 28.

Wednesday was another one of those days full of poll releases from across the board. In total, there were data from 22 new surveys in 12 different states added to the FHQ polling dataset for 2020. And while all six categories were represented, it was the middle column in the Electoral College Spectrum below -- the one with the most competitive states -- that was most heavily polled in this batch. Nevada was the only blue state toss up with no new survey data on the day and Iowa and Ohio were the only ones on the Trump side of the partisan line without any new polls. That means that the most frequently surveyed states got another infusion of data, but the end result was only minor movement. Six of the states shifted in Trump's direction and another five saw their margins move toward Biden. North Carolina held steady from a day ago.

But again, the bottom line is that with six days left in the presidential campaign before voting concludes, Biden maintained the lead in the electoral vote tally that he has held for the last week.

On to the polls...

Polling Quick Hits:

Arizona

(Biden 48, Trump 44 via Gravis Marketing | Biden 49, Trump 43 via Justice Collaborative Institute | Biden 50, Trump 45 via Univision | Biden 52, Trump 45 via Patinkin Research Strategies)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.04]

Arizona added the most new polls on the day, and importantly, the six new polls, including two backlogged surveys from Patinkin Research, nudged the average margin there back above Biden +3. On the whole, however, this group of surveys was fairly consistent with the established 48-45 lead the former vice president currently holds in the Grand Canyon state. The first Gravis poll of Arizona since September had both candidates losing support. The 50-48 Biden advantage then doubled but brought the series in line with the current average in the state. Both the Univision and JCI surveys hit the target on one candidate's average share of support, but missed the mark on the other. In the JCI poll, Biden's share was on par with his average while Trump lagged behind his. The opposite was true of the Univision survey. There, the Trump share in the survey matched his average share at FHQ while it ended up having Biden out in front of his average share. Finally, the Patinkin update to an early October survey that found the Democratic nominee up 50-46 saw that margin increase even further, pushing Biden beyond 50 percent. The former vice president has hit that mark less frequently in Arizona than in, say, the blue wall states, but he has hit or exceeded the majority mark 19 times in the 98 polls conduced in Arizona in 2020. And roughly a third of those have come in October.

Arkansas

(Trump 65, Biden 32)

[Current FHQ margin: Trump +26.14]

A rare new poll of the Natural state was conducted by the University of Arkansas and had the president doubling up Biden. This wide gap in this survey is mostly consistent with the 61-35 average margin Trump currently maintains at FHQ. But that average makes Arkansas one of those states that hardly looks different from the 2016 presidential results. Biden's average share is a little more than a point ahead of Clinton finish there and Trump is actually slightly ahead of where he ended up in Arkansas four years ago.

Florida

(Biden 49, Trump 46)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.12]

Univision's first poll of the Sunshine state in calendar 2020 does not stray far from the established 49-45 (rounded) average at FHQ. And Florida is one of those states with a below average swing relative to 2016. Biden has only tacked on a point and a half on to Clinton's showing there, and Trump is running only about three and a half points behind his pace. In total that is still a shift in the Democrats' direction the 2016 election to 2020 polling, but it is one that falls short of the nearly seven point average swing across the country.

Georgia

(Biden 50, Trump 48)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +0.28]

North of the Sunshine state in Georgia, Monmouth was back in the field with another survey gauging opinions on preferences in the presidential race. And there has been a fairly substantial swing in the low turnout model that FHQ has been imputing into the dataset since the university pollster found Trump ahead 50-45 last month. But that was a bit of an outlier. Trump has not been back up as high as 50 percent in any Peach state poll since the September Monmouth survey. Moreover, he had not hit the majority mark in a poll until that September survey since July. But this month, it is Biden and not the president who is at 50 percent. For comparison, since that September Monmouth survey, the former vice president has surpassed the majority barrier seven times. [NOTE: Using the high turnout model data -- a 50-46 Biden advantage -- would have increased the average FHQ margin to Biden +0.32.]

Maine

(Biden 51, Trump 38)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +13.57]

Maine CD1

(Biden 56, Trump 34)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +23.27]

Maine CD2

(Biden 46, Trump 42)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.75]

There is far less suspense statewide in Maine or in ME CD1 and the update from Colby College confirms that. The numbers both statewide and in the southern, more urban district moved toward Biden since the last poll in September. But the margins shifted a sliver toward Trump because they both came in under the established average margins in both jurisdictions. And while the more competitive ME CD2 was largely unchanged in the time since the last Colby survey -- Trump dropped a point -- the average margin inched upward and toward Biden nearly syncing it with the average margin in North Carolina.

Michigan

(Biden 49, Trump 41 via Siena/NYT Upshot | Biden 49, Trump 42 via Glengariff Group | Biden 51, Trump 44 via ABC/WaPo)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.17]
It was another day with not only multiple polls of Michigan but with all them finding the former vice president hovering around 50 percent as he has for weeks here at FHQ and the president stuck in the low to mid-40s. The Siena survey was an update to a poll of the Great Lakes state earlier this month and represented no real change. A 48-40 Biden lead then morphed into a 49-41 advantage now. The margin may have closed some in the update the last Glengariff poll earlier in October, but it also had Biden's support pushing closer to 50 percent, a mark the Democratic nominee has been closing in on in the FHQ averages for a while now. The first-time ABC/WaPo survey basically fell in line with the current 50-43 (rounded) margin Biden leads the president by at FHQ. None of the trio find Trump significantly closing the gap in a state he flipped in 2016 but does not absolutely have to defend in 2020.

North Carolina

(Biden 49, Trump 46 via Gravis Marketing | Biden 47, Trump 46 via Harper Polling)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.80]
In the Tar Heel state, a pair of new surveys continued giving fodder to the FHQ mantra for the race there: It is close but consistently tipped in Biden's favor. The Gravis poll is the firm's first in the state since June and although both candidates have increased their support from Biden's 46-43 lead at the time, the margin has remained exactly the same. Harper Polling's surveys for Civitas in North Carolina have been the model of consistency since summer. It has been a one point race in one direction or another since the firm's August poll. And it was Biden's turn to lead in October after Trump had his turn last month. Neither poll is far off of the 48-46 (rounded) FHQ average in the Old North state.

Pennsylvania

(Biden 50, Trump 45)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.38]
Like the Arizona and Florida polls, this was the first Univision survey of Pennsylvania as well. And even as the margin falls short of the five plus point FHQ advantage the former vice president has in the Keystone state, it is consistent with the 50-44 (rounded) lead there. And this was another poll with Biden at or above 50 percent in the commonwealth. Looking at the swing in Pennsylvania from 2016 to now, it appears to be a lot like Florida. Biden here is ahead of Clinton by a little more than a point and a half and Trump is lagging behind his 2016 performance by more than three and a half points. Together, that shift is slightly below the nearly seven point average swing across all states.

South Carolina

(Trump 50, Biden 44 via Data for Progress | Trump 52, Biden 44 via East Carolina University)

[Current FHQ margin: Trump +6.76] -

If it is a South Carolina poll this week, then it must have Trump in the low 50s and Biden trailing in the mid-40s. That has been the trend so far this week anyway and both the Data for Progress and ECU polls fit that bill. And neither survey has changed that much since either was last in the field in the Palmetto state. In the two weeks since Data for Progress conducted a South Carolina poll Trump's 52-43 lead has shrunk by a couple of points. ECU's last survey was the first in the state way back at the beginning of February, and that registered voters sample then also had Trump at 52 percent. Biden saw more growth since then in the transition from registered to likely voters, but only enough to pull him in line with his average level of support as measured by FHQ.

Texas

(Trump 49, Biden 46)

[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.53]

The update to the last Univision poll in Texas resembles the timeline in the Gravis surveys of North Carolina discussed above. A February poll of registered Lone Star state voters had Trump out to a 46-43 lead. But time and the switch to likely voters for the latest poll are more consistent with the current 48-46 (rounded) advantage the president holds in Texas. As FHQ has mentioned before, Texas continues to be the North Carolina of the Trump side of the partisan line. The two states are mirror images of each other with Trump holding the same 48-46 lead that Biden has in North Carolina. That consistency in both should be noted heading down the stretch of this race.

Virginia

(Biden 53, Trump 41)

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +11.83]
No other poll has found the race for the 13 electoral votes in the Old Dominion as close as the September Christopher Newport survey did. So, that the university pollster's latest Virginia poll has replaced that 48-43 Biden lead from then with a margin (not to mention candidate shares) to match those at FHQ is noteworthy. Virginia just is not in 2020 the swing state that it was in 2008 or 2012 (or even 2016 for that matter).

Wisconsin

(Biden 48, Trump 43 via Marquette Law School | Biden 57, Trump 40 via ABC/WaPo )

[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.46]
Finally, the two new polls in the Badger state tell differing tales. Neither is wholly inconsistent with the recent data on the Trump side of the equation although the ABC/WaPo finding is on the low end of the president's range. But the real difference is on the Biden side. The former vice president was already above 50 percent in the last ABC/WaPo survey of Wisconsin last month, but for Biden to hit 57 percent this month is for him to hit his peak in polling of the state this year. It also nudges him a little closer to a 50 percent average share at FHQ. In fact, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have all been huddled up against but under that average threshold for a while with Michigan closest to crossing first. But on the weight of this new ABC/WaPo poll, Biden's average share in Wisconsin is now closer to 50 percent than in Michigan. The Marquette poll continues to find the margin in the Badger state on the low side compared to other polling. But it also may have been more consistent across the series. This latest poll is barely different from the 47-42 lead Biden held in the last Marquette poll earlier this month.

NOTE:

A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum¹
DC-3 VT-3 (6)²	IL-20 (162)	WI-10 (253)	AK-3 (125)	TN-11 (60)
MA-11 (17)	OR-7 (169)	PA-20³ (273 \| 285)	MO-10 (122)	KY-8 (49)
MD-10 (27)	NJ-14 (183)	NV-6 (279 \| 265)	SC -9 (112)	SD-3 (41)
HI-4 (31)	ME-2 (185)	FL-29 (308 \| 259)	MT-3 NE CD1-1 (103)	AL-9 (38)
NY-29 (60)	CO-9 (194)	AZ-11 (319 \| 230)	KS-6 (99)	ID-4 (29)
CA-55 (115)	VA-13 (207)	NC-15 ME CD2-1 (335 \| 219)	NE-2 (93)	AR-6 (25)
DE-3 (118)	NH-4 (211)	GA-16 (351 \| 203)	IN-11 (91)	OK-7 (19)
WA-12 (130)	NM-5 (216)	IA-6 (187)	UT-6 (80)	ND-3 (12)
ME CD1-1 CT-7 (138)	MN-10 (226)	OH-18 (181)	MS-6 (74)	WV-5 (9)
RI-4 (142)	NE CD2-1 MI-16 (243)	TX-38 (163)	LA-8 (68)	WY-3 NE CD3-1 (4)
¹ Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. ² The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics. ³ Pennsylvania is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

Things really have settled in at FHQ and time is running out for anything to significantly change between now and election day next Tuesday. That is not to say that nothing can or will happen to disrupt this race but that time and folks who have not voted are both dwindling. FHQ mentions that as preface to saying on another day that little has changed around here. The map and underlying electoral vote tally are where they have been for a week, the order of states depicted in the Electoral College Spectrum is unchanged from a day ago and the same seven states that populated the Watch List yesterday are there again today. That is just the way it is, but tomorrow may bring some new data that will alter that.

6 days to go.

Where things stood at FHQ on October 28 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008

--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

State	Potential Switch
The Watch List¹
Georgia	from Toss Up Biden	to Toss Up Trump
Iowa	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Kansas	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Nevada	from Toss Up Biden	to Lean Biden
New Hampshire	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
New Mexico	from Strong Biden	to Lean Biden
Ohio	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania	from Lean Biden	to Toss Up Biden
¹ Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

The Electoral College Map (10/27/20)

The Electoral College Map (10/26/20)

The Electoral College Map (10/25/20)

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