An Invisible Primary Round Up to Start the Week

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

First, over at FHQ Plus...

• Late last week, Michigan Republicans released details of a plan to use both the February 27 presidential primary and March 2 congressional district caucuses to allocate delegates to the national convention next year. All the in-the-weeds details of the plan at FHQ Plus.

If you haven't checked out FHQ Plus yet, then what are you waiting for? Subscribe below for free and consider a paid subscription to support FHQ's work and unlock the full site.

In Invisible Primary: Visible today...

...

In the money primary, the Des Moines Register has a nice rundown of outside spending in first-in-the-nation Iowa so far in 2023. The Trump-affiliated Make America Great Again, Inc. super PAC has spent more than $20 million in the Hawkeye state, most of it on television ads against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. But that $20 million total is nearly five times more spending than all of the other candidate affiliated groups combined. 

A few things that all of this signals...

1) The candidates, their campaigns and affiliated groups continue to behave as if Iowa will, in fact, have the first contest on the 2024 presidential primary calendar (despite all of the recent calendar drama).

2) There is a certain inefficiency to all of that spending. Yes, all of those dollars are being shelled out in a state that will have, if not the first contest, then a very early one. [Iowa will very likely end up first.] The spending is useful in that sense. However, that is a lot of money spent to mobilize voters for a caucus in a state that is unlikely to be competitive in the fall campaign. 

The Democrats have changed the calculus on this, but have their own inefficiencies built into the primary calendar on their side. The handpicked new leadoff state, South Carolina, is no more competitive for Democrats than Iowa is in the general election, and there is the potential negative impact of shunting New Hampshire to a later slot. But the Democratic calendar will feature a new primary in Nevada and a newly early primary in Michigan during the early calendar in 2024, two likely battlegrounds for the fall. Granted, Democrats do not appear to have competitive nomination phase ahead of them and that is its own built-in, institutional inefficiency with respect to mobilizing/energizing voters during the primary phase of the campaign. But the notion of there being inefficiencies like this at all is a byproduct of the work the DNC did to revamp the calendar for 2024. 

Still, interesting figures out of Iowa.

...

In the endorsement primary, it was a busy weekend.

• Former President Donald Trump picked up the support of a couple of Georgia congresspeople, Rep. Andrew Clyde and Rep. Mike Collins. Both endorsed Trump, timed along side the former president's trip to address the state convention of Peach state Republicans in Columbus over the weekend.
• Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt became the first fellow governor to line up behind Ron DeSants's bid while the Florida governor was in the Sooner state for an event in Tulsa this past weekend. 
• In what might be considered an intra-state battle in South Carolina, Senator Tim Scott rolled out endorsements from 29 state lawmakers, including the state Senate Majority Leader Shane Massey, and dozens of other current and former elected officials from across the Palmetto state (more than 140 in all). It is difficult not to view those endorsements as a sort of zero-sum game between Scott and former Governor Nikki Haley. Trump already claims high profile endorsements in South Carolina from Governor McMaster and Senator Graham, so the battle for endorsements in the first-in-the-South state is for other officeholders. Thus far, Scott is outpacing his fellow Sandlapper in the count at home.
• North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum did not have to go far to gain his first big endorsement. From right in his Roughrider state backyard, Senator Kevin Cramer endorsed the governor on Monday.

...

Miami Mayor Francis Suarez hometown paper reports that a major announcement is coming from the mayor during his upcoming trip to the Reagan Library later this week. FHQ has not said much about the mayor but he has been talking about a presidential run for a while.

...

On this date...

...in 1999, Texas Governor George W. Bush officially entered the race for the 2000 Republican presidential nomination. 

...in 2008, Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) ended his bid for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination, but transferred the money left over from his campaign to start the advocacy group, The Campaign for Liberty.

--

Recent posts:

Sunday Series: About that Unique Michigan Republican Primary-Caucus Plan (Part One)

[From FHQ Plus] Folks, the new caucus law in Iowa does not affect state Democrats' plans for 2024

Legislative Inaction Struck a Blow Against a Primary Move in Connecticut, but the effort may not be dead

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, Mastodon and Post or subscribe by Email.

See more on our political/electoral consulting venture at FHQ Strategies. 

Launch Week Continues & Biden and the Iowa "Caucuses"

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

First, over at FHQ Plus...

• With state legislative sessions winding down, things have gotten kind of quiet in terms of the primary calendar and rules for 2024. But that does not mean that nothing has been going on. In fact, it is picking up once more with some big-ish changes to delegate allocation for New York Republicans. All the details at FHQ Plus.

If you haven't checked out FHQ Plus yet, then what are you waiting for? Subscribe below for free and consider a paid subscription to support FHQ's work and unlock the full site.

In Invisible Primary: Visible today...

...

President Biden appearing on any state's primary or caucus ballot next year will depend entirely on whether the state party in question is conducting or involved in a noncompliant contest. That is clear and has been clear for some time. The president has stood behind a primary calendar change for 2024 that disrupts the standard positions that both Iowa and New Hampshire have occupied on the calendar for half of a century. But when those changes are combined with rules that also create penalties on candidates who campaign in states that break those rules, it makes things look rather ominous with respect to president's participation. After all, it is unlikely that a president is going break the rules of the party he leads to campaign in some rogue contest. 

But that did not deter Biden challenger, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. from saying this to radio host Michael Smerconish in an interview on Monday, June 5:

“I think that President Biden is not going to even put his name in Iowa and New Hampshire. So I think he’s not even going to compete,” Kennedy added.

However, Kennedy is like others who have fallen into the trap of expecting Iowa and New Hampshire to behave the same in the face of changes that strip them both of their customary positions. New Hampshire Democrats have clearly been defiant. But Iowa Democrats have not been. Not yet anyway. And signs pretty clearly point toward an Iowa Democratic Party that is trying to thread a needle with their 2024 process. Those signs indicate a likely compliant preference vote. 

And if that all-mail preference vote occurs at a compliant point on the calendar, then Biden will be on the ballot. If not, well, he will not be. But no one -- not even RFK Jr. -- has an answer to that yet. And as for competing beyond merely being on the ballot, Biden will likely do what most incumbent presidents do in terms of campaigning in compliant contest states.

...

On Christie's launch day, Jonathan Bernstein has a good one up at Bloomberg chock full of advice on how the former New Jersey governor can run a productive campaign despite not having any real chance to win (based on the typical horserace standards).

...

FHQ was at least somewhat skeptical in Invisible Primary: Visible last week about an NBC News look at the potential failings of canvassing on the Republican side. Derek Willis has provided some good additional perspective on the matter in terms of expenditures on those GOTV efforts in the DDHQ newsletter this week. 

The grumbling in the NBC story about the GOP's canvassing operations - "That’s why we’re losing elections," one anonymous source is quoted as saying - doesn't sound like sour grapes from a competing consultant. But it's also not clear to an outsider how effective paid canvassing is, especially in the final weeks of the campaign. 

One thing is pretty certain: paid canvassing isn't going away, and one important reason why is primary elections, where a party apparatus usually isn't available to help pull in volunteers.

...

Invisible Primary quick hits:

• Former Vice President Mike Pence filed paperwork with the Federal Elections Commission on Monday to run for president ahead of his Iowa launch on Wednesday, June 7.
• Taking a different route than most recent prospective presidential candidates, New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu opted not to run for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, calling on candidates to "not get into this race to further a vanity campaign, to sell books or to audition to serve as Donald Trump’s vice president." Seth Masket has more on Sununu's decision at Tusk. But the University of New Hampshire's Dante Scala pushed back on any impact Sununu would have had one way or the other. All FHQ would add is that a Sununu entry was very unlikely to make New Hampshire irrelevant for 2024. He has basically been flirting with the delegate qualifying threshold (10 percent) in public opinion polling in the Granite state. Sununu is no Tom Harkin in Iowa, circa 1992. He was not deterring anyone.
• On the other hand, North Dakota Republican Governor Doug Burgum has a new extended video out ahead of his announcement on Wednesday, June 7.

...

On this date...

...in 1972, South Dakota Senator George McGovern swept the Democratic primaries (or won more delegates) in California, New Jersey, New Mexico and his home state of South Dakota. The backstory on the New Jersey primary is a wild read more than 50 years on. 

...in 2000, Texas Governor George W. Bush and Vice President Al Gore both won primaries in Alabama, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota to end primary season.

...in 2011, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum announced his candidacy for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.

...in 2020, former Vice President Joe Biden won caucuses in Guam and the Virgin Islands.

--

Recent posts:

The Rules Help Frontrunners in Both Parties, not just Trump

Sunday Series: Demystifying Delegate Allocation and Delegate Selection

[From FHQ Plus] Uncertainty and the 2024 Presidential Primary Calendar

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, Mastodon and Post or subscribe by Email.

See more on our political/electoral consulting venture at FHQ Strategies. 

Tim Scott Enters the Race

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

First, over at FHQ Plus...

• There is something of a time crunch for the two parties in Iowa to schedule the 2024 caucuses, but much of it seems self-imposed. There is a time they want to have that completed by and a point they have to have that set. Plus an additional note on Trump and 2024 delegate allocation rules. All the details at FHQ Plus.

If you haven't checked out FHQ Plus yet, then what are you waiting for? Subscribe below for free and consider a paid subscription to support FHQ's work and unlock the full site.

In Invisible Primary: Visible today...

...

After filing with the Federal Election Commission on Friday, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott is set to officially announce his candidacy for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination on Monday, May 22. The move comes a little more than a month since the junior senator from the Palmetto state launched an exploratory committee. 

Scott is the first to strike in a week that seemingly promises at least one more similar announcement, but Scott's entry also comes at an interesting time. Donald Trump still enjoys a comfortable lead in the endorsement primary among Senate Republicans. However, the upper chamber in the US Congress is increasingly looking as if it may be a flashpoint of sorts in this Republican nomination race. And that may or may not be because of Tim Scott. Scott will enter the race with two Senate endorsements, both from South Dakota colleagues. Mike Rounds, FHQ has talked about, but Scott also scored the important endorsement of Senate Minority Whip John Thune over the weekend. And there is said to be a reservoir of support for Scott among those he works with most closely. 

Moreover, Republican senators not aligned with Trump have been increasingly outspoken in recent weeks. First, Indiana Senator Todd Young unendorsed Trump. Then another member of the Senate Republican leadership, Senator John Cornyn last week noted that Trump cannot win a general election. And Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy followed suit over the weekend. Neither Cornyn nor Cassidy went quite as far as Young did in their comments, but they come at a time that gives Scott some cover as he announces his bid. No, none of it is explicitly pro-Scott, but it is anti-Trump enough, via an electability argument. 

And together it all offers an interesting set of signals from among a group of the most high-profile possible gets in the endorsement primary.

...

South Carolina Republicans convened over the weekend and narrowly re-elected Chair Drew McKissick. With both Tim Scott and Nikki Haley on hand and Donald Trump addressing the delegates in a video, McKissick turned back a challenge from Jeff Davis, head of a Trump-loyalist group in the Upstate of South Carolina. This was not a convention where 2024 delegate rules were on the table -- the winner-take-all by congressional district system is not one South Carolina Republicans are going to mess with -- but it was a demonstration of another state Republican Party battling on pragmatism versus purism grounds, something that has flared up in other states as 2024 approaches. That may not have implications for delegate allocation rules in South Carolina, but it bears watching elsewhere as the rules increasingly get nailed down. 

...

Harry Enten has another good one up about the comeback path DeSantis may take to the Republican nomination. He draws a parallel between where DeSantis is in the polls now to where both Barack Obama and John McCain were in 2007. Both obviously went on to win their respective nominations in 2008, but both needed early wins to help propel them in that direction. Of course, DeSantis' main competition, Donald Trump, is probably closer to where Hillary Clinton was in 2015 than to where she was when she was the poll leader -- ahead of Obama -- in 2007. And that matters as well. 

...

In a further fleshing out of an ongoing story, Tom Beaumont describes the tough work ahead for DeSantis-aligned super PAC, Never Back Down, in attempting to flex organizational muscle. Again, that effort is a kind of Frankenstein's monster, combining the grassroots strength and knowhow of the 2016 Cruz campaign with the similar try at organizing through a super PAC that the Jeb Bush campaign pushed in the same cycle. 

...

On this date...

...in 2012,  former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney swept primaries in Arkansas and Kentucky.

...in 2020, the voting in the all-mail Hawaii Democratic party-run primary concluded.

--

Recent posts:

Sunday Series: Biden, Incumbent Presidents and Setting the Rules of Renomination

[From FHQ Plus] The Quirks of Scheduling a South Carolina Presidential Primary

The Disconnect on Iowa and New Hampshire 2024

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, Mastodon and Post or subscribe by Email.

See more on our political/electoral consulting venture at FHQ Strategies. 

Invisible Primary: Visible -- How the Republican Candidates Line Up in South Carolina

Thoughts on the invisible primary and links to the goings on of the moment as 2024 approaches...

The 2024 primary calendar is not set yet. But if it goes according to plan on the Republican side, then Iowa Republicans will hold caucuses followed by the presidential primary in New Hampshire. South Carolina would come next, and it is the delegate prize of the early calendar. The Palmetto state not only offers the most delegates of any of the first four states, but also allocates them in a winner-take-most manner that promises the statewide victor a decent chance of sweeping the delegates with just a bit more than a 40 percent plurality. 

And that is important because a couple of recent polls of South Carolina Republicans show former President Donald Trump pulling in just north of 40 percent support. Now sure, the primary date is not even established in South Carolina, so it is definitely still early. Read into those numbers what one wants at this point, approximately nine months out from the Palmetto state primary. But Trump holds the pole position at the moment and how the candidates line up behind him matters. 

As in the majority of the current national polls of the Republican race, Ron DeSantis now is a clear second option to the 45th president in South Carolina. Behind the Florida governor are a pair of South Carolinians who are vying for the nomination as well. Depending on the poll, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and Senator Tim Scott together account for anywhere from a quarter to a third of the support there. And where that support goes should either or both falter in Iowa or New Hampshire (if not the invisible primary) is consequential. As the National Public Affairs survey demonstrates, Haley and Scott are one and the same for all intents and purposes. Should Haley withdraw, then Scott would be the odds on favorite to take her support. The same is true if it was Scott dropping out. Haley would gain. 

But if both are forced out of the race, then DeSantis is the more likely beneficiary. Some of that homegrown support for Haley and/or Scott may filter out to other candidates or even stay with the favorite son/daughter if one or both remain(s) on the ballot. But if the bulk of that Haley/Scott support shifted to DeSantis, then it could be enough to vault the Florida governor over Trump statewide. 

At this juncture, it is obviously premature to speculate to that degree. But the jockeying in South Carolina matters because it is likely to give the winner of the primary a fairly significant net delegate advantage heading into the Nevada contest and beyond. That is no small thing.

The real take home from all of this is that Haley and Scott have some hard work ahead of them in potentially creating some daylight between each other back home. An early win before South Carolina, either outright or relative to expectations, may do that. But getting to that point is the real trick. That is where the hard work is.

...

Half of Democratic voters in key early primary state don’t want Biden to run for re-election: poll. 

The key state? New Hampshire. 

One has to read all the way into the seventh paragraph before it is mentioned that Biden may not even be on the ballot in the Granite state if New Hampshire Democrats choose to go rogue, opting into a primary that is likely to be set by the secretary of state for some time in January 2024. 

What this poll really indicates is that a relatively unpopular president is even more unpopular in a state where being first-in-the-nation in the presidential primary process is matter of state identity if not right (in the eyes of some New Hampshirites). Moving South Carolina up was no boon to Biden in New Hampshire. Where all of them might matter more is the general election rather than the primary phase.

...

Entry points. Larry Elder is in, and so is Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. as of Wednesday, April 19. Miami Mayor Francis Suarez is close to a decision on entering the Republican presidential nomination race as well. Oh, and President Biden appears to be nearing a decision himself. 

...

In the endorsement primary, Trump continues to amass Florida congressional delegation support, picking up three more endorsements from Reps. Bilirakis, Buchanan and Waltz. The former president's campaign is not just doing this in Florida. He also claims the two biggest endorsements in South Carolina from Senator Lindsay Graham and Governor Henry McMaster. It is becoming clearer that the Trump campaign values these opponent-homestate endorsements as effective counters to candidates and would-be candidates running against him for the Republican nomination. 

...

Over at FHQ Plus...

• Hawaii is still trying to create a presidential primary, Idaho is dealing with suddenly not having one and Missouri continues to attempt to bring theirs back. All at FHQ Plus.

If you haven't checked out FHQ Plus yet, then what are you waiting for? Subscribe below for free and consider a paid subscription to support FHQ's work.

...

On this date...

...in 1983, Senator John Glenn (D-OH) announced his campaign for the 1984 Democratic presidential nomination.

...in 1988, Tennessee Senator Al Gore (D) withdrew from the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.

...in 1999, Gary Bauer entered the 2000 Republican presidential nomination race.

--

Recent posts:

Invisible Primary: Visible -- DeSantis Wilts in the Glare of the National Spotlight

Invisible Primary: Visible -- Chris Christie's Decision

Invisible Primary: Visible -- The Professionalization of Trump's Campaign

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, Mastodon and Post or subscribe by Email.

See more on our political/electoral consulting venture at FHQ Strategies. 

The 2012 Candidates: Santorum's In

Former Pennsylvania senator, Rick Santorum, threw his hat in the Republican nomination ring on On the Record with Greta VanSusteren tonight. No [exploratory] website, no video. Just a traditional television launch. He becomes the sixth Republican to announce the formation of an exploratory committee with the intent of exploring a bid for the White House. The senator's natural constituency among the early states is probably in Iowa and South Carolina -- He did win a straw poll in Greenville County, South Carolina over the weekend -- but even then he will face an uphill battle. He fills a niche on social issues possibly to the right of some of the other candidates, but may struggle to differentiate himself from them on economic matters, where the general election battle is likely to be waged. But in the primaries, invisible or otherwise, Santorum may serve the purpose of pulling some of his colleagues to the right on certain issues.

In other words, he may make some of the debates interesting, but won't ultimately go anywhere in terms of winning the nomination next year.

--

Democrats:

Barack Obama (announced: 4/4/11)

Republicans:

Michelle Bachmann

Haley Barbour

John Bolton

Jeb Bush

Herman Cain (exploratory: 1/12/11)

Chris Christie

Mitch Daniels

Jim DeMint (3/24/11)

Newt Gingrich (exploratory: 3/4/11)

Rudy Giuliani

Mike Huckabee

Jon Huntsman

Bobby Jindal

Gary Johnson

Sarah Palin

George Pataki

Ron Paul

Tim Pawlenty (exploratory: 3/21/11)

Mike Pence (1/27/11)

Rick Perry

Buddy Roemer (exploratory: 3/3/11)

Mitt Romney (exploratory: 4/11/11)

Rick Santorum (exploratory 4/13/11)

John Thune (2/22/11)

Recent Posts:

The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (4/13/11)

Bill Introduced in Michigan House to Move Presidential Primary to January

Michigan Democrats Not Looking to Repeat 2008 Opt for May Caucuses

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Tumblr and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

The 2012 Candidates: Mitt's In

A week after Obama launched his reelection bid Romney goes exploring.

This one is just about as much of a surprise as Obama's video announcement was a week ago. But the former Massachusetts governor is in the race for the Republican nomination and is already catching some flak on a day that Iowa and New Hampshire Democrats were celebrating the anniversary of Romneycare. The latter makes it an interesting day for an announcement.

Romney remains a potentially formidable opponent for Obama in the general election, but that isn't really the former governor's problem; appealing to and garnering enough support among the Republican primary electorate is.

Here's more on Romney from Jonathan Bernstein, Jack Pitney and Eric Ostermeier.

--

Democrats:

Barack Obama (announced: 4/4/11)

Republicans:

Michelle Bachmann

Haley Barbour

John Bolton

Jeb Bush

Herman Cain (exploratory: 1/12/11)

Chris Christie

Mitch Daniels

Jim DeMint (3/24/11)

Newt Gingrich (exploratory: 3/4/11)

Rudy Giuliani

Mike Huckabee

Jon Huntsman

Bobby Jindal

Gary Johnson

Sarah Palin

George Pataki

Ron Paul

Tim Pawlenty (exploratory: 3/21/11)

Mike Pence (1/27/11)

Rick Perry

Buddy Roemer (exploratory: 3/3/11)

Mitt Romney (exploratory: 4/11/11)

Rick Santorum

John Thune (2/22/11)

Recent Posts:

New Look FHQ

The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (4/8/11)

Oklahoma Senate Unanimously Passes House March Primary Bill

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Tumblr and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

The 2012 Candidates: Obama's In

Well, it was bound to happen at some point.

Add President Obama to the list of candidates vying for the White House in 2012. And though he may have to do it again, Senator Jim DeMint (R-SC) once again reaffirmed his plans not to seek the Republican nomination the week before last. Obama is now officially in -- the only Democrat -- while no Republicans have officially jumped beyond the exploratory committee level.

Democrats:

Barack Obama (announced: 4/4/11)

Republicans:

Michelle Bachmann

Haley Barbour

John Bolton

Jeb Bush

Herman Cain (exploratory: 1/12/11)

Chris Christie

Mitch Daniels

Jim DeMint (3/24/11)

Newt Gingrich (exploratory: 3/4/11)

Rudy Giuliani

Mike Huckabee

Jon Huntsman

Bobby Jindal

Gary Johnson

Sarah Palin

George Pataki

Ron Paul

Tim Pawlenty (exploratory: 3/21/11)

Mike Pence (1/27/11)

Rick Perry

Buddy Roemer (exploratory: 3/3/11)

Mitt Romney

Rick Santorum

John Thune (2/22/11)

Recent Posts:

The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (4/5/11)

Maryland House Bill to Move Presidential Primary to April Unanimously Passes Senate

Alaska Dems to Start 2012 Caucus Process on April 15

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Tumblr and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

The 2012 Candidates: Pawlenty's In (...exploring mode)

Speaking of Minnesota...

Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty took the first formal step toward a run for the Republican presidential nomination next year by announcing the formation of an exploratory committee today. Pawlenty's nascent team has put together a series summer blockbuster trailer-like ads over the last year or so, but the former governor is going to have to find a way to use that and other means of making himself known to potential Republican primary voters.

Four Republicans have now formed exploratory committees. The list:

Michelle Bachmann

Haley Barbour

John Bolton

Jeb Bush

Herman Cain (exploratory: 1/12/11)

Chris Christie

Mitch Daniels

Jim DeMint

Newt Gingrich (exploratory: 3/4/11)

Rudy Giuliani

Mike Huckabee

Jon Huntsman

Bobby Jindal

Gary Johnson

Sarah Palin

George Pataki

Ron Paul

Tim Pawlenty (exploratory: 3/21/11)

Mike Pence (1/27/11)

Rick Perry

Buddy Roemer (exploratory: 3/3/11)

Mitt Romney

Rick Santorum

John Thune (2/22/11)

Recent Posts:

Feb. 7 Minnesota Caucuses with March 6 Results?

The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (3/21/11)

Nebraska Dems Stick with Caucuses Over Primary but Move from February to April

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Tumblr and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

The 2012 Candidates: Newt's In (?)

...with a website.

But it is a website announcing his intention to explore the option of exploring the exploration of the formation of an exploratory committee for the office of president of the United States. In a time when all that is out there officially are Herman Cain and Buddy Roemer candidacies, Newt Gingrich exploring anything remotely related to the presidency or a White House run is noteworthy (...especially for someone who has been lumped in with the first tier of candidates -- from a polling perspective). It may not be what the former Speaker wanted today to be about, but it'll be something to take to Iowa next week.

Let's update the list to include exploratory committee timing:

Michelle Bachmann

Haley Barbour

John Bolton

Jeb Bush

Herman Cain (exploratory: 1/12/11)

Chris Christie

Mitch Daniels

Jim DeMint

Newt Gingrich (exploratory: 3/3/11)

Rudy Giuliani

Mike Huckabee

Jon Huntsman

Bobby Jindal

Gary Johnson

Sarah Palin

George Pataki

Ron Paul

Tim Pawlenty

Mike Pence (1/27/11)

Rick Perry

Buddy Roemer (exploratory: 3/3/11)

Mitt Romney

Rick Santorum

John Thune (2/22/11)

--

A message from Newt and Callista (from NewtExplore2012.com):

America's greatness lies in 'We the People.'

We are a nation like no other. To remain so will require the dedicated participation of every citizen, of every neighborhood, of every background. This is the responsibility of a free people.

We are excited about exploring whether there is sufficient support for my potential candidacy for President of this exceptional country.

Recent Posts:

Is There a Utah Problem for the 2012 Primary Calendar?

Bill to Move Connecticut Presidential Primary to March Raised in Committee

A Two-Thirds Potomac Primary? DC Might Try to Align Primary with Maryland

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Tumblr and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

The 2012 Candidates: Thune's Out

They're dropping like flies!

Two potential Republican presidential candidates have now dropped out in a little less than a month. Only 21 oft-spoken about possibilities left to decide. [Yes, the argument could be made that Bush, Christie and Jindal have all said they are not going to run, but we'll keep them on here for the time being.]

Michelle Bachmann

Haley Barbour

John Bolton

Jeb Bush

Herman Cain

Chris Christie

Mitch Daniels

Jim DeMint

Newt Gingrich

Rudy Giuliani

Mike Huckabee

Jon Huntsman

Bobby Jindal

Gary Johnson

Sarah Palin

George Pataki

Ron Paul

Tim Pawlenty

Mike Pence (1/27/11)

Rick Perry

Mitt Romney

Rick Santorum

John Thune (2/22/11)

John Thune (via Facebook and his website) has withdrawn his name from the list of candidates vying for the 2012 Republican nomination to focus his efforts on the Senate. The South Dakota senator joins Mike Pence as the only prospective Republican candidates to announce anything -- in or out -- in terms of a run for the White House. Two outs and no ins at this point.

--

Thune's statement:

For months now, my wife Kimberley and I have received encouragement from family, friends, colleagues, and supporters from across South Dakota and the country to run for the presidency of the United States. We have appreciated hearing their concerns about where the country is headed and their hopes for a new direction.

During this time, Kimberley and I and our two daughters have given a great deal of thought to how we might best serve South Dakota and our nation. That process has involved lots of prayer.

Along the way, we have been reminded of the importance of being in the arena, of being in the fight. And make no mistake that during this period of fiscal crisis and economic uncertainty there is a fight for the future direction of America. There is a battle to be waged over what kind of country we are going to leave our children and grandchildren and that battle is happening now in Washington, not two years from now. So at this time, I feel that I am best positioned to fight for America’s future here in the trenches of the United States Senate.

I want to thank those who have encouraged us and prayed for us during the past several months. We are forever grateful for all the support.

John and Kimberley

Recent Posts:

From California, The Best Primary Bill Introduction Yet

Companion Senate Bill to Move Tennessee Presidential Primary to May Introduced

2012 Presidential Primary Movement: The Week in Review (Feb. 14-20)

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Tumblr and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

Revisiting Candidacy Announcements: What's Different About 2012?

Sometimes we get grumpy here at FHQ. Sometimes we hate apples to oranges comparisons but fail to see an ounce of goodness in them for the, uh, fruit trees. I don't like the 2012 to 2008 candidacy announcement timing comparison because I think it is a flawed one mainly based on the structural differences between the two elections (in this case, the presence or lack of an incumbent). My preference is to use a similar election to which to compare 2012. However, that can draw the ire (and that's perhaps putting it a little strongly) of others. [If you haven't had a chance to read the comments to yesterday's post -- linked above -- please go do it now. Each makes its own fabulous point.]

Yes, 2012 and 2004 have some similarities, but there are also some significant differences between the dynamics of candidate entry. I don't know that my intention was to put all that much stock into the formation of presidential exploratory committees. Rather, I came across the information and felt that it would be disingenuous for me not to include. What I think I failed to adequately discuss -- and was rightfully called on it -- was the fact that the significance of the exploratory committee is on the decline. This is the simultaneously exhilarating and frustrating thing about the study of the presidential nomination process: the metrics are always changing. They are especially onerous when it comes to campaign finance rules. And that, of course, is where the exploratory committee piece of the puzzle lies. It is a campaign finance creation.

In the aftermath of Obama shunning the federal financing system in the general election in 2008 and in the aftermath of the Supreme Court's Citizens United decision, the mile markers of campaign financing within and among campaigns have changed. To be sure the federal campaign finance system has been eroded, but the raising and distribution of funds from the political action committees of prospective presidential candidates has also changed the game.

What's been lost is that step, that mile marker that was present before, the formation of the exploratory committee. Without that step, what's lost is a concrete metric for demonstrating proximity to jumping in to the presidential nomination race. PACs still do that, but candidates can run for 2012 without actually running in 2012. Candidates can roll any and all PAC efforts into a future senate or gubernatorial or another, but actual presidential bid. [And yes, it should also be noted that candidate visits to early primary or caucus states or the hiring of staff/renting of office space there are also good indicators of this as well.]

At the end of the day, we have a pretty good idea who is running for the Republican nomination. All we're lacking are the official announcements. That said, those candidates are moving more slowly in doing that than other recent candidates. Okay, fine, but why? That's the important question. Part of it is structural. I made the argument for that yesterday. But part of it also has to do, I'd argue (and so too would our trio of commenters from yesterday), with the changing landscape of campaign finance. More specific to 2012, some of these prospective candidates probably want to see how the relationship between the president and the Republican-controlled House plays out -- for a little bit at least -- first.

Regardless, this has been a different progression to the invisible primary than anything witnessed in quite a while. It is an interesting game of "who can hold out the longest" brinksmanship.

[Thanks to MysteryPolitico, Matt and Anonymous for their comments that led to this post.]

Are you following FHQ on Twitter and/or Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

2012 is not 2008. Not Even Candidacy Announcements

Is it just FHQ or are all these comparisons that are popping up comparing the relative lack of presidential candidacy announcements for 2012 to those at this time in 2008 flawed (Dave Weigel, Wall Street Journal)? Structurally speaking, there is a fundamental difference in the motivation to throw one's hat in the ring in a year with an incumbent president running for reelection and one in which both parties have contested nominations (Yes, incumbents can be challenged, but you know what I mean.). 2012 falls into the former category while 2008 does not. 2008 is also different because for the first time since 1952, no representative from the then-current administration was going to seek the, in this case Republican, nomination in 2008. In other words, there was some urgency to jumping into the race in both parties ahead of 2008 simply because both were so wide open.

The result is a false comparison or worse yet, a comparison that is only drawn to have something about which to talk. Look, FHQ wants to talk about the 2012 presidential election process as much as any site or media outlet. Outside of, say, GOP12, we are as guilty as anyone when it comes to talking about 2012. [And there is absolutely nothing wrong with what Christian Heinze has been doing over there since late 2008. That site serves as a solid chronology of actions taken toward what FHQ has called candidate emergence.] But if we're going to talk about 2012, let's at least talk about it in terms that actually advance the conversation in a meaningful way.

If one wants to compare candidacy announcements for 2012, then, one would be better served comparing it to another similar election, like, say, the pace with which Democrats announced their candidacies for the 2004 Democratic nomination. The truth is that at this point in 2003 very few Democrats had done much of anything toward a presidential run either as the table below indicates.

2004 Democratic Presidential Candidacy Announcements
Candidate	Exploratory Committee Formation	Candidacy Announcement
Wesley Clark	--	September 17, 2003
Howard Dean	--	--
John Edwards	January 2, 2003	September 16, 2003
Richard Gephardt	January 4, 2003	February 19, 2003
Bob Graham	--	May 6, 2003
John Kerry	December 1, 2002	September 2, 2003
Dennis Kucinich	February 18, 2003	--
Joe Lieberman	--	January 13, 2003
Carol Moseley-Braun	February 19, 2003	September 22, 2003
Al Sharpton	January 21, 2003	--
Source: P2004 Notes: *News on Dean's exploratory committee and candidacy announcement is not clear on the actual dates, but several articles on the formation of the Kerry campaign's exploratory committee describe Dean as being the "only declared candidate" in December 2002.

How does the 2012 Republican field compare to the Democrats in the 2004 cycle in terms of either the formation of exploratory committees or announcing their candidacies? No Republican has officially announced that they intend to run for the Republican nomination and only Herman Cain has formed an exploratory committee. In other words, there has not been all that much activity. But how active were prospective Democrats at this time in 2003? They had been far more active on the exploratory committee front than actually officially entering the 2004 Democratic nomination race. Heading in 2003, Dean was officially in and Kerry had announced an exploratory committee. Early in January 2003, John Edwards and Richard Gephardt had filed the necessary paperwork establishing their presidential exploratory committees with the Federal Elections Commission and Joe Lieberman had announced his candidacy.

At this time in 2003, then, there were two candidates in the race and another three who had formed exploratory committees. That's more activity than we've seen from the prospective 2012 Republican candidates, but not by much.

...and that serves as a much better baseline for comparison than 2008.

[H/t to Jonathan Bernstein and John Pitney for the Weigel and WSJ links.]

Are you following FHQ on Twitter and/or Facebook? Click on the links to join in.