Election Night Liveblog and Open Thread

3:08am: It is fitting that the remaining two states to be decided were the closest of all the states in our averages. I'll end on that note for now. I'll be back later to tie up some of the loose ends.

What a night/morning! Thanks for clicking over.

3:01am: There goes Montana for McCain.

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2:59am: Well, that 8am class is calling. Let's stroll through those three two remaining states one last time and I'll leave it there for the night before returning to wrap things up tomorrow.

Missouri: 99% in: McCain has opened up a slightly wider lead; a couple thousand votes.
Montana:
North Carolina: Still "100%" in but those numbers have been stationary for quite a while now.

2:53am: CNN looks as if they have given all of Nebraska to McCain. That Omaha district was the closest, but Maine and Nebraska will once again allocate all their electoral votes to one candidate each.

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2:31am: Wow! 78 votes separate Norm Coleman and Al Franken in that Minnesota senate race. There may be a recount in Missouri in the presidential race, but that North Star state senate race is a lock.

2:30am: Will we have another call? No. That was a big tease from NBC. Cued up the music and everything.

2:27am: McCain's lead in Missouri is down to 398 votes. Yeah, this is getting into Florida 2000 territory. Actually, it is getting into Missouri territory. Both the Democratic and Republican primaries this past year were extremely close and the last several senate races in the state have been really tight.

2:24am: Montana is slipping away for Obama. What had been an early lead has changed into a McCain lead of 50-47 with about 80% of the precincts in.

2:21am: Nate Silver is calling North Carolina the best bet of the remaining four states (prior to the Indiana call). That lead seems like it will be able to hold up with all counties in.

2:17am: Both candidates have 50% in North Carolina and just more than 12,000 votes separate them with Obama ahead.

2:09am: Indiana to Obama. Wow, did Karl Rove get it wrong. 338 electoral votes!?! Who comes up with this stuff! What that means is that McCain will not crack the 200 electoral vote threshold.

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2:08am: Just 554 votes separate McCain and Obama in Missouri with 99% reporting in the Show-Me state.

1:47am: I just went over to the secretary of state's website for North Carolina. The Tar Heel state's outstanding votes seem to be early/absentee. All 100 counties have reported with no county "partially reporting." Incidentally, Obama is still ahead there.

1:45am: Saxby has left the building. The Georgia senator seems to think that the remaining precincts and absentee votes will break evenly but that we likely won't know until later in the morning whether they'll will be a runoff.

1:39am: Alaska has been called for McCain by NBC.

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1:12am: Does anyone out there know what is happening in the states concerning their 2012 primaries and caucuses? Oh, you'll be hearing more about it here.

1:04am: With 99% of the precincts reporting in both Indiana and North Carolina, Obama is ahead 50-49. With a slightly smaller percentage of precincts reporting, Missouri (94%) has McCain up 50-49 as well. In Montana, both candidates are now under 50% and Obama is clinging to a one point 49-48 lead. Still no word out of Alaska.

12:57am: Alaska's polls will be closed statewide as of 1am.

12:55am: 97% are in here in Georgia and Chambliss is now down to 51%. Martin needs to get that under 50% plus one vote to force that runoff. Martin likely needed to be the one in Chambliss's position tonight to be in good shape for December.

12:46am: The story here in the Peach state is that they are shifting into the counting of early votes and absentee ballots to see if the race will have a runoff.

12:40am: I'm still here. Keeping tabs on this Georgia senate race. Chambliss is dropping toward that 50% mark.

12:09am: "A new era of service and sacrifice."

12:05am: Let's have a look around at which states are still out:
North Carolina: 96% reporting: Obama 50% McCain 49%
Missouri: 86% reporting: McCain 50% Obama 49%
Montana: 29% reporting: Obama 52% McCain 45%
Indiana: 97% reporting: Obama 50% McCain 49%

Those are all tight except for Montana, which seems to be coming in slow. Granted, the Treasure state spotted the others at least an hour and a half. But still.

12:02am: Ooh, and Scranton gets a shout out. Who woulda thunk it?

12:01am: A nod to the service and sacrifice of John McCain.

11:59pm: Oh, polls in Alaska are about to close.

11:57pm: And here comes the 44th President of the United States onto the stage at Grant Park.

11:42pm: Nevada to Obama. Well, that's 338 folks. Our graduated weighted averages have gotten us this far. As S.D. has mentioned in the comments, North Carolina is still very tight and has shifted over to McCain at this point. We'll have to see how all the rest of it shakes out.

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11:29pm: CNN has Arizona going for McCain and the entirety of Nebraska's 5 electoral votes going to McCain. That pushes the Arizona senator's tally to 152 electoral votes.

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11:28pm: McCain is still uncomfortable with the negativity. He obviously doesn't like the booing of Obama-Biden during his speech.

11:20pm: NBC just pushed Florida into the blue column for Obama. That's 333 and only Nevada away from matching the FHQ map. Or is that the Karl Rove map?

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11:13pm: And there goes Colorado for Obama. That breaks the 300 electoral vote barrier. That's the first time that has happened in three elections.

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11:08pm: Add Hawaii and Virginia to Obama's tally and Idaho and South Dakota to McCain total. That's 297-142. NBC is showing 146 for McCain right now with Nebraska, I guess, giving 4 electoral votes to McCain. Could one of those congressional districts move into Obama's column?

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11:00pm: NBC calls the election for Obama on the strength of calls in all three west coast states. That's 280 electoral votes for the Illinois senator. I'll hold off on coloring Florida in.

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10:59pm: The AP calls Florida for Obama.

10:50pm: North Carolina, Indiana, Virginia and Missouri are all really close. And only Virginia was off the recent Watch Lists, having pushed into the Obama lean category.

10:31pm: The stars at night are big and bright! Fill in the blank. Texas goes to McCain. Along with the Magnolia state further east, McCain has a clean sweep of the Deep South states. But Obama has only really been competitive in those peripheral south states like Virginia and North Carolina. By the way, Virginia looks much closer than our averages have projected. But the recent polling had only just started to come back from that nine and ten point high a couple of weeks back.

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10:19pm: Iowa and New Mexico to Obama and Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana and Utah turn red. It should be noted that two of the closest states from both four and eight years ago -- Iowa and New Mexico went rather quickly tonight for Obama. It has looked that way in the polling for a while now, but that has been quite a shift in those two states.

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10:12pm: I should have made an announcement before I headed out, but I'm back at the electoral vote counting, Rovian bat cave now. And fortunately so. Everyone was sucking up the bandwith where I was and I quickly grew tired of slow load times. Zipping around now.

I've got some catching up to do. Hold on just a moment and I'll put another set of maps up.

9:40pm: As I was just saying to Rob in the comments, anything for Obama on the McCain side of the victory line (Colorado) on the Electoral College Spectrum is crippling to McCain. It is over. The 44th president of the United States is Barack Obama. Well, it was during the 9 o'clock hour. So, I had that right in the scenario analysis earlier today.

9:34pm: Unless there is a McCain surprise out there -- and I don't see one -- it is over. Ohio to Obama.

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9:27pm: West Virginia to McCain. Mark another one off.

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9:16pm: Georgia to McCain. So much for competition in the Peach state. A political scientist can hope, can't he.

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9:00pm: And now with the 9 o'clock closings, Obama is up to 175, adding Minnesota, Wisconsin New York, Rhode Island and Michigan. As I just heard, it has been all good news for the Dems and nothing good for the Republicans. Well, McCain got North Dakota and Wyoming. Mark those off the list.

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8:59pm: Alabama to McCain. 103-43 for Obama.

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8:49pm: It has gone down hill fast here. If you look at the post I had earlier today on election night scenarios, once you factor in all of the strong states that Obama should win (those with polls still open), he is sitting at 264 electoral votes. So when I say Virginia or Colorado and it is over. It really is.

8:39pm: Pennsylvania to Obama. That's two of the three states. Virginia and it will be over. But I don't expect the Old Dominion for a while.

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8:30pm: At the bottom of the hour, one of the three states I mentioned before, broke for Obama. New Hampshire stays blue in 2008 (the only state to turn blue in 2004).

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8:24pm: Obama edges ahead in the count, adding Maine, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, DC and Obama's home of Illinois. McCain adds Tennessee and Oklahoma. Obama 77- McCain 34. No surprises so far.

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8:22pm: Well, here comes North Carolina at 8:30. Oh, and Arkansas

8:11pm: Well, the CNN lady in Grant Park is yelling at me. I suppose it is loud there.

8:00pm: South Carolina to McCain, according to CNN. No surprises there.

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7:55pm: Well, the clock is approaching the 8 o'clock hour. There are lots of closings then. Which to keep an eye on? Pennsylvania and Missouri. I don't expect a quick call on Pennsylvania. But that is one of the three early states to watch. If any of the Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire group is called soon, we'll start getting an indication of how the evening will go.

7:50pm: I'm assuming those early returns in South Carolina are coming in from the Low Country. Obama will not win the Upstate. That much I can tell you. Sorry to disappoint Upstate Obama fans.

7:45pm: Well, I guess we have our answer on West Virginia. A little too early, I suppose.

I just spoke with my sister in Charleston, SC and she waited in line for four hours this afternoon. She was dismayed to learn that my wait was but 4 seconds. Oh well. We did take some pictures at the polling place at Firehouse #7 here in Athens, GA, but were brutally rebuffed when we tried to get an inside shot of the machines. Couldn't even shoot the room. The pictures that we (my wife) were able to take should hopefully come my way later this evening. I'll post them when I have them. They're ever so exciting.

7:29pm: We are approaching 7: 30 and that means time for Ohio and West Virginia to close up shop. Do we have a wait on West Virginia or will it be an easy call for McCain?

7:22pm: I should also add that NPR called Vermont for Obama.

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7:12pm: Alright, I'm in position. Hunkered down and ready to go. Or is that fired up; ready to go! One of those. Well, I should take a moment to talk a little bit about how we'll be calling things tonight (since ) NPR did the same on the way over here. I'm not in this to be first, so I'll wait until someone else (a reputable source) has made a call before putting a new map up. NPR has handed Kentucky to John McCain and I'll have that one up shortly.

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6:47pm: I'm off to my undisclosed location for the next few hours. I should have checked before now, but hopefully they have wi-fi. If not it will be a short stay before I head back to the electoral vote counting batcave. Back in a few.

6:11pm: And we're off! The first round of poll closings have begun in Indiana and Kentucky. No call yet from the networks on Kentucky. Either they are showing a surprising amount of restraint or Kentucky's close. I'm going with the former.

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This should be a fun night. The comments section is open so have at it. Oh, if you haven't had a chance yet, go and check out the final electoral college map. It is just the map. I'll have the Spectrum, polls and other graphics up sometime tomorrow. It has been a whirlwind day. I can't believe The Fix said election day was usually boring. Boo! Anyway, the big news was that Nevada moved into the Obama lean category.


Recent Posts:
FHQ's Final Electoral College Map (11/4/08)

Election Protection

An Election Night Scenario Analysis, Part II

An Election Night Scenario Analysis, Part II

Yesterday FHQ examined how this evening would progress given the poll closing times and what we know about the competitiveness in each state. Here are those assumptions again:

1) All strong states are able to be called as soon as the polls close in those states.
2) All lean states have an hour lag before they are called.
3) All toss up states with an FHQ average over 2 points have a three hour lag before they are called.
4) All toss up states with an FHQ average under two points have a four hour lag before they are called.

Given those assumptions we can project that Obama will wrap things up about 11pm this evening. But we can handicap this scenario some. We know, for instance, that, despite the late closing times, California will go for Obama and Idaho/Utah will hand McCain their electoral votes. So let's remove that first assumption and factor all the strong states as states that have already decided for their respective candidates. Based on the McCain campaign's final weekend itinerary, we know that they are targeting New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. For the sake of this exercise then, let's assume that both are lean states. If we consult our Electoral College Spectrum, we know that the would give Obama 239 electoral votes and McCain would be spotted 137.

Before the first polls even close, this is what the map would look like:

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Between 6pm and 7:30pm polls close in Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia and West Virginia. But we don't add anything to the map just yet. Those are all still wait and see states.

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However, at 8pm we can slide Georgia and West Virginia into the McCain total and Virginia into Obama's tally. Now the Illinois senator is within 18 electoral votes of victory.

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An hour later, Colorado's polls close, but if we are assuming that Pennsylvania and New Hampshire are lean states, then Obama would cross the 270 threshold around that time.

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Early on in the evening then, we will have a very good idea based on how quickly Virginia, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania break who the next president of the United States is.

A very big thanks to Paul Gurian for the suggestion on this one.


Recent Posts:
Final Update: The Electoral College from a Different Angle

The Electoral College Map (11/4/08)

Open Thread: Election Day! AM Edition

An Election Night Scenario Analysis

I've seen this done on a couple of other sites, but let's assume, just for the heck of it, that FHQ is right and Obama wins the presidency by a 338-200 count in the electoral college. Well, how would Tuesday night play out if each of the 50 states plus DC broke the way our map shows? If you use the poll closing times that The Green Papers has posted, then the evening would likely progress something like below.

[Why post one map with all the different times when you can post 10 of them?]

First let's make a few basic assumptions:
1) All strong states are able to be called as soon as the polls close in those states.
2) All lean states have an hour lag before they are called.
3) All toss up states with an FHQ average over 2 points have a three hour lag before they are called.
4) All toss up states with an FHQ average under two points have a four hour lag before they are called.

One hour before the first polls close, we'll start with a blank slate.

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Indiana and Kentucky start the night off with 6pm closings in the Eastern time zone areas of their states. I won't do this for any of the other states, but I'm going to assume that the networks will want something to talk about early. Even without all the polls in Kentucky closed, they'll call the Bluegrass state for McCain. Indiana? Well, it'll be a bit longer.

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Though Georgia may make it into the lean area after this final day, it is still a strong state here. As such Georgia and South Carolina join Kentucky as early states going for McCain. Add Vermont to Obama's tally at 7pm and put Virginia into the wait and see category. Like Indiana an hour earlier, Florida has a first wave of closings in the Eastern time zone. The count at 7pm: 31-3, McCain.

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At 7:30pm Ohio and West Virginia close their polls. If 2004 and the primaries earlier this year are any indication, then there will likely be an extension of the polling hours in the Buckeye state. However, both of these states are outside of the strong category and will have a wait before being called for either candidate.

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If 7pm brought a mini-wave of closings, 8pm brings the first big wave of the evening. Illinois, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Virginia (after the hour lag) move into the Obama column, opening up a small lead for the Illinois senator. McCain adds a couple of states from the Deep South and Oklahoma. Missouri, meanwhile is placed in the wait and see category for the time being.

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Thirty minutes later, Arkansas moves into the red for McCain and North Carolina holds off until later.

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At 9pm, New York and Texas cancel each other out, but Obama adds Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Wisconsin while McCain gets Arizona, Louisiana and a handful of mountain west and prairie states. Colorado's polls close, too, but a call will wait for an hour. Obama's tally approaches 200 and McCain breaks 100 electoral votes.

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At 10pm Obama adds Colorado and Iowa as McCain grabs Kansas. Polls close in Montana and Nevada as well, but both will have to wait for a call as a lean state and toss up state respectively.

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Already at 209, Obama adds the west coast states at 11pm but Florida and Ohio also break for the Illinois senator. That big rush of electora votes puts Obama over the top and he becomes the 44th president.

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At midnight, Alaska's polls close and brings the day to a close with only a few polling sites still open in the Last Frontier and Nevada and North Carolina outstanding. Both go for McCain in the wee hours of November 5.

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Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (11/3/08)

FHQ vs. The Talking Heads

The Electoral College Map (11/2/08)