The Links (12/3/09)

1. Remember the Idaho Republican Party's complaint? Well, they are moving forward with their court case to close their primaries:

By January 15, the Republican Party will present a summary of the evidence it will be presenting at the upcoming trial. This will include a copy of the expert report by one of the party’s witnesses, Michael Munger, who is a professor of political science and an expert in political parties. Then, there will be another status conference on January 26 to set the details for the upcoming trial.

FHQ might try and pull some strings and get a hold of that report if possible.


2. What exactly happened to those Chris Daggett supporters on November 3? David Redlawsk (at the Eagleton Poll) has a go at explaining it.


3. The Democrats got their man in North Carolina to challenge Richard Burr. We'll see how that turns out. They thought they had their man in 2002 with Erskine Bowles. That didn't work out well in 2002.

...or 2004. But FHQ is on the ground here in the Old North state and has a vested interest in a competitive race.


4. Also, notice that State of Elections (the blog of the William and Mary Election Law Society) has been added to FHQ's blogroll. Welcome State of Elections.


Recent Posts:
Who Gains the Most if Huckabee's Out for 2012?

The Links (12/1/09)

Washington Post Poll: 2012 GOP Primary Race

New Jersey, Virginia & 2010

What do any of the three have to do with each other?

FHQ would argue very little. After examining the polling in both states for the better part of five months, it is fairly clear that these races have virtually no national implications. In New Jersey, the election last night was as much about Jon Corzine as 2006 and 2008 were about George W. Bush. That is to say that each was about an unpopular incumbent. Corzine had not, as FHQ mentioned yesterday, broken the 45% barrier in polling all year and he needed to round his percentage of the vote share up to get there last night. The Democrat's chances hinged completely upon Chris Daggett's ability to siphon off votes from Christie and make 44 or 45% the winning total. When Daggett came up well short of where FHQ and most other monitors expected the independent to end up (He pulled in about half of his expected share; 5%.), Corzine basically had no chance. As was talked about on The Monkey Cage earlier today, someone viewed negatively and behind in the polls has to attack and bring his or her opponent down to their level. Lee Seligman put it better: "It’s not so much that attackers lose as that losers attack." Corzine had to attack, but in the end couldn't bring Christie down to a beatable level.

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The end result in Virginia was the same -- the Republican won -- but the process of getting there was very different. I don't think that Chris Christie or Jon Corzine were particularly great candidates, but in the commonwealth, Bob McDonnell just outclassed Creigh Deeds as a candidate. McDonnell basically held an advantage throughout the year no matter which Democratic candidate was pitted against him; an advantage that crescendoed rapidly when the votes began to be cast a day ago. Deeds, seeing that McDonnell had been spotted an edge, was essentially in the same position John McCain was in a year ago relative to Barack Obama, except the Democrat was without a presidential-level campaign team. [I'm not talking about folks from within the Obama administration. I'm talking about campaign staff that is steeped in experience. McCain had that. Deeds did not.] FHQ isn't here to throw Deeds under the bus. I just think that McDonnell was in the position of being able to take the high road (as most frontrunners are) through the thesis ordeal. Deeds' campaign, meanwhile, latched onto that story and quickly became associated with it to the point that once the issue faded there was no previously constructed message on which Deeds could lean.

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One other thing that might also be mentioned (that I haven't seen discussed anywhere) is how the primaries in this race played out. The parties tinkering with their presidential nomination rules would be wise to take note of this. FHQ won't argue that the Democratic primary battle hurt Deeds. It didn't. But Bob McDonnell was ceded the Republican nomination. In the absence of competition, the former attorney general was never forced to run to the right. Not only did that not provide Deeds or any other Democrat with any fodder for the general election campaign, but it also helped McDonnell, even with the thesis out in the open, to foster a more moderate image. In the end, it isn't the primary battle that's negative so much as the easy road to nomination is beneficial.

Fine, both New Jersey and Virginia were "all politics is local" elections. They were, but they weren't without their cautionary tales for next year's midterm elections. Neither race or outcome is a harbinger, at least not directly, but the underlying numbers present the Democratic Party with a real problem. Let's look at the numbers from 2008 and 2009. No, I don't think that is a fair comparison either, but I did want to compare the level of drop-off from last year to this year across parties. In other words, how much bigger was the drop-off difference between the Democratic and Republican candidates at the top of the ballot?

2009 New Jersey & Virginia Voting Drop-Off (vs. 2008)
State	2008	2009*	Drop-Off
Virginia	Obama: 1,959,532 McCain: 1,725,005	Deeds: 774,676 McDonnell: 1,100,470	Dem: 1,184,856 GOP: 624,535
Total:	3,684,537	1,875,146
New Jersey	Obama: 2,215,422 McCain: 1,613,207	Corzine: 1,048,697 Christie: 1,148,651	Dem: 1,166,725 GOP: 464,556
Total:	3,828,629	2,197,348
*Numbers may have changed slightly since these data were collected on the afternoon of Nov. 4, 2009. Sources: NJ 2008, 2009; VA 2008, 2009

In both cases, turnout dropped by approximately 50% from 2008 to 2009. But the difference between the way in which the number of votes decreased was not uniformly distributed across each party. These are aggregate numbers, so were not talking about the same people in 2008 and 2009, per se. However, it is more than obvious that the Republican Party maintained more of its voters than did the Democrats. In Virginia, Deeds could only hold about 40% of Obama's voters from a year ago. McDonnell, on the other hand, was able to maintain about two-thirds the level of McCain voters. The story in New Jersey was similar. Corzine held but 47% of Obama's level of turnout to Christie's 71% of McCain's.

But that's not all. Some of the exit polling was noteworthy as well. Race actually didn't play that big a role in either state, for instance. The African American share of the electorate on Tuesday was actually higher in New Jersey (14%) than it was in 2008 (12%). In Virginia, there was a decrease in the black share from 20% a year ago to 16% yesterday, and Deeds got the same 92% of those voters that Obama got in 2008. The exit polling breaks on age were also interesting. McDonnell won every age group on Virginia (not surprising when you win by 17 points), while Obama lost narrowly among 40-49 year old and over 65 year old Virginians. In New Jersey, Obama just lost among the senior set while Christie only lost among the very youngest (18-29) group.

The real difference, though, was in the partisan make up of the 2008 versus 2009 electorates (at least through the lens of the exit polling conducted).

2008 vs. 2009 Exit Polling in NJ & VA (Party ID)
State	2009	2008
New Jersey	41% D 31% R 28% I*	44% D 28% R 28% I*
Virginia	33% D 37% R 30% I**	39% D 33% R 27% I**
*Christie won independents 60-30. Obama won them 51-47 over McCain. **McDonnell won independents 66-33. Obama won them 49-48 over McCain. Sources: CNN (NJ and VA) -- 2008, New York Times (NJ and VA) -- 2009

That paints a fairly stark contrast between the two elections. Republicans made up a larger share of the electorate in 2009 and both Republican gubernatorial candidates ran away with the independent vote. If yesterday's results mean anything for 2010, it is that the Democrats may have an enthusiasm gap riddle to solve between now and next year this time. FHQ still contends that these elections were decided based on local forces, but the tie that binds them is the fact that Democrats seemingly sat these races out. Resting up for 2010, or simply complacent post-2008? That is the question.

Outside of that, I'm still scratching my head trying to figure out what a pro-medical marijuana/anti-same sex marriage voter in Maine looks like. Politics is great.


Recent Posts:
Election Night 2009: Live Blog (ME-ref, NJ-gov, NY-23, VA-gov)

State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (11/3/09) -- Final

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (11/3/09) -- Final

Election Night 2009: Live Blog (ME-ref, NJ-gov, NY-23, VA-gov)

12:26pm: FHQ will return in the morning for some parting shots on Election '09 and to tie up the loose ends in Maine and in CA-10. Everyone has something to spin tonight, but the GOP got the two biggest gets in New Jersey and Virginia.

12:22pm: One last update: Maine's Yes on 1 seems likely to win and repeal the gay marriage law in the Pine Tree state. With about 80% of the precincts in, the lead is nearly 5% for Yes.

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12:16pm: Hoffman has conceded NY-23.

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12:03pm: Owens has jumped back over 49% with almost 90% of the precincts reporting. If the Democrats win in California's 10th district special election the party will have swept all the congressional special elections in 2009. It hasn't been a good night for the Democratic Party, but that is one thing the DCCC can hang its hat on. Now, in 2010, their task will be more difficult.

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12:00am: Fox is calling NY-23 for Owens.

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11:55pm: In other words, of those 5800 absentee ballots returned, Hoffman is going to have to win by about 4:1 to make up the difference between himself and Owens. And yeah, a lot of those ballots were returned when Scozzafava was still in the race. That's an uphill climb for Hoffman.

11:52pm: From the Watertown Daily Times (in NY-23):

"Democrat Bill Owens is leading in the 23rd Congressional District race.

The Plattsburgh attorney has 58,851 votes compared to Conservative Doug Hoffman, a Lake Placid CPA, with 55,618 votes.

Dede Scozzafava, a Republican who dropped out of the race Saturday, has 6,749 votes.

There were more than 10,000 absentee votes sent out before the election and some 5,800 were returned and must be counted. More absentee ballots, if sent before the deadline, could still be received.

Owens now leads in Jefferson, St. Lawrence, Franklin, Clinton and Essex counties.

Hoffman leads in Lewis, Oswego, Oneida, Fulton, Hamilton and Madison counties.

Owens is maintaining a 48 percent to 46 percent lead.

Four precincts in St. Lawrence County are having mechanical problems and total results for the county won't be available tonight."

11:42pm: A last glance at New Jersey and Virginia (a lot of red tonight):

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11:30pm: Also, The Albany Project is calling NY-23 for Owens. That's an unofficial call.

11:27pm: After a quick nourishment break, FHQ is back. Let's check in on NY-23 and in Maine. Owens continues to hold on with just under 80% reporting and Yes on 1 has stretched a thin lead into a "thin but not quite as thin" edge.

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11:04pm: Just about half of the precincts are reporting in Maine and Yes on 1 (to repeal the gay marriage law passed by the state legislature) is now ahead.

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10:51pm: Maine is down to 37 votes margin. From Political Wire via Twitter: "Maine gay-marriage initiative currently at a 37-vote difference. Yes, 37. (via @steve_shepard)."

10:45pm: Not vying for the honor of closest? That would be Virginia's gubernatorial race:

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10:43pm: Well, I suppose NY-23 would have to duke it out with the Maine gay marriage ballot measure for that distinction. Things are slightly tighter in the Pine Tree state than in the North Country.

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10:40pm: Over half precincts are in in Upstate New York. Owens has slipped under 50% and the Democrat's lead is down to under 3 points. Could this one be the close one we've been waiting for?

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10:28pm: Corzine could not pull the Brendan Byrne circa 1977 comeback. There has not been a Democratic come-from-behind in a New Jersey gubernatorial race since then. That's mostly because the Democrats are ahead in the polls. The incumbent Democrat was simple too unpopular statewide and Chris Daggett didn't end up pulling enough actual votes away from Christie to make that a non-factor. That's the way it had been in the October polls in the race. Independents broke for Christie in the end and not Daggett.

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10:22pm: Back to NY-23 (Don't worry we'll return for a few notes on Christie's win.): 31% of precincts are in and Owens is still over 50%. Others have said that the story in Virginia and New Jersey tonight was the independents (both broke for the Republicans), but is a moderate, albeit right-leaning, district going for the moderate Democrat instead of the more ideologically extreme Conservative, Hoffman?

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10:15pm: Had to point that out didn't you, FHQ?

10:13pm: We interrupt NY-23 to announce that the AP has called New Jersey for Christie. Wow! That's a much quicker call than we had anticipated. However, FHQ was 2 for 2 on the gubernatorial calls.

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10:10pm: Granted, the last round of polling in NY-23 had Hoffman pulling ahead. The Conservative Party nominee was the momentum candidate heading into today.

10:08pm: Of course, Erick Erickson (RedState) had this to say (also via Twitter): "Hoffman race too close to call for now, but they are still cautiously optimistic."

10:06pm: Marc Ambinder on NY-23 (via Twitter): "Republicans suddenly VERY nervous about NY 23...."

10:04pm: The results are slow to come in up in Maine. With 22% of the precincts reporting, the turnout rate is 81% and No on 1 holds a now very slim lead (50.62%-49.38%).

9:53pm: Nearly two-thirds of the votes are in in New Jersey. I think it is safe to say that Daggett is hurting Jon Corzine. Well, Daggett's having underperformed expectations are anyway. The independent is still at about half of the share FHQ projected him to have based on polling. As we've mentioned that may be a function of the fact that he was the lone alternative to Christie and Corzine in a lot of those polls. The support just wasn't there.

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9:49pm: In local election news, turnout was LIGHT in Winston Salem today. Joines (D) was running unopposed for mayor. I was voter #113 in my precinct.

...at just before 5pm. Yikes!

9:37pm: A quick peek at Virginia: McDonnell is under 60% and Deeds broke the 40% barrier. A big turnaround from a year ago in Virginia.

...for both parties.

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9:30pm: Owens with the early lead in NY-23. Well, that's a 37-25 lead over Hoffman. Scozzafava has 3. Let's project that one based on less than 1% reporting.

...or not.

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9:22pm: Update from Maine. No on 1 is ahead as is the medical marijuana. Turnout was 45% (unofficially) in the Pine Tree state today. That's not bad for a ballot full of referenda. Thanks to Jack for the link to the results.

9:08pm: The story so far in New Jersey is that Daggett is underperforming (Ah, the third party election day fade.) while the two major party candidates are overperforming expectations slightly. With just over a quarter of the state reporting, Christie is over 50%. The Republican hadn't seen that level of support in the polls since the summer. What was his last poll with over 50%? An early August Rasmussen poll. It's been a while. Corzine may yet break that 45% barrier we discussed earlier, but for the time being he's in the low 40s.

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9:05pm: Only 501 precincts yet to come in in Virginia. Nope, not getting any closer. Will Deeds break 40%? That is the question. FHQ had him pegged at 41.0%. There's little doubt McDonnell will exceed FHQ's projection.

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8:59pm: I love the map New York Times has up on their front page. There's nothing like a map being filled in a election results come in:

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8:56pm: Polls are about to close in NY-23. Let the uncertainty begin dissipating.

...maybe.

8:46pm: FHQ is late to start, but it doesn't look like we missed much in Virginia:

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That one gets an, "Ouch" rating. I felt like FHQ's averages may have undervalued McDonnell's potential vote share, but Deeds' polling versus Deeds' vote share aren't that different. Yes, I see that it's official in Virginia. Did the above graphic leave any room for doubt?


Recent Posts:
State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (11/3/09) -- Final

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (11/3/09) -- Final

Final Virginia Update coming between 2 & 3 this afternoon.

State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (11/3/09) -- Final

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Prediction: Christie wins.

After looking back over the states FHQ incorrectly predicted a year ago in the presidential election (Indiana and North Carolina), we have come to the conclusion that close races are where our graduated weighted average can get into trouble. Yes, those are races that happen to be just like New Jersey. In our defense, Indiana was the only surprise. North Carolina was at least moving in Obama's direction. And though, New Jersey has moved in Corzine's direction in October, there is too much running against the incumbent Democrat. For starters, Corzine will likely have to poll over or around 45% to win unless Chris Daggett wins more than the 10% we have the independent projected to win. If Daggett doesn't get a larger share, Corzine will have to clear a barrier that he has yet to clear in any poll conducted in the race this year. He never got better than 44%. On top of that, Christie won no matter how we calculated our average, or more accurately what polls FHQ decided to include.

If all the 2009 polls were used, Christie won by the 3.4% you see above.

If only the polls since the June primary were included, Christie won by 2.2%.

If a simple average of all the final day polls is used, Christie won by one-third of a percentage point.

That may indicate that the momentum is behind Corzine in the aggregate. It could, but it could also mean that Corzine is still coming up short. Ordinarily, FHQ might be inclined to say that the tie goes to the one who has won statewide before because they would have some organizational advantage in a close race. In this case, though, Corzine's inability to crack 45% in any poll is the biggest piece of evidence against him.

And for FHQ, that is why we're giving the slight nod to Republican Chris Christie in this race.


Recent Posts:
State of the Race: Virginia Governor (11/3/09) -- Final

Final Virginia Update coming between 2 & 3 this afternoon.

Election Day 2009: What's on Tap? -- A Viewing Guide

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (11/3/09) -- Final

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FHQ is of the opinion that it did a better job putting the wraps on this race in our Sunday night update. Nothing in the two polls released on Monday in the Virginia gubernatorial race did anything to disrupt the conventional wisdom that Virginia will continue its streak of electing governors from the party not represented in the White House. If anything, both the PPP and Survey USA survey's provided additional proof that today's vote would be an overwhelming victory for Republican Bob McDonnell. More than anything, though, with the final polls in, we can assess the situation and, in this race at least, go out on a limb and make a prediction. That the state of Virginia in the graphic above is now completely red should be indicative enough of the fact that the evidence is pointing toward a McDonnell victory tonight. But now it is official.

2009 Virginia Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Deeds	McDonnell	Undecided
Public Policy Polling [pdf]	Oct. 31-Nov. 1, 2009	+/- 2.6%	1457 likely voters	42	56	2
Survey USA	Oct. 30-Nov. 1, 2009	+/- 4.1%	502 likely voters	40	58	2

Early on, the exit polls are showing the turnout is lower than expected in some Republican areas. The Democrats are touting those numbers, but it will take an awful lot of that to get Deeds anywhere close to winning this race. And lest everyone --Democrats specifically -- forget, the early 2004 presidential exit polls indicated that the United States would have a new president, President Kerry. Alas, it didn't quite turn out that way, if memory serves. As Markos Moulitsas just tweeted, "WTF, there are exit polls today? Big question -- which side will get punk'd by them?" Indeed. It would not be wise of Deeds supporters to put too much stock into them; not these early ones at least.

Prediction: McDonnell wins.

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Recent Posts:
Final Virginia Update coming between 2 & 3 this afternoon.

Election Day 2009: What's on Tap? -- A Viewing Guide

State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (11/2/09)

Election Day 2009: What's on Tap? -- A Viewing Guide

Here's the rundown from The Green Papers:

in NEW JERSEY:

polls open from 6 AM local time (1100 GMT) to 8 PM local time (0100 GMT, 4 Nov)

Statewide offices up for election:

• Governor, with Lieutenant Governor elected on a ticket with the winning gubernatorial candidate (NOTE: this is the very first time NEW JERSEY will be electing a Lieutenant Governor).

---

in VIRGINIA:

polls open from 6 AM local time (1100 GMT) to 7 PM local time (0000 GMT, 4 Nov)

Statewide offices up for election:

• Governor
• Lieutenant Governor (elected separately from Governor)
• Attorney General

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---

SPECIAL ELECTIONS for U.S. House of Representatives

CALIFORNIA's 10th Congressional District:

• to fill the vacancy caused by the resignation of Ellen Tauscher [Democrat], 27 June 2009, to become Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security.

polls open from 7 AM local time (1500 GMT) to 8 PM local time (0400 GMT, 4 Nov)

---

NEW YORK's 23rd Congressional District:

• to fill the vacancy caused by the resignation of John McHugh [Republican], 21 September 2009, to become Secretary of the Army.

polls open from 6 AM local time (1100 GMT) to 9 PM local time (0200 GMT, 4 Nov)

Oh, and let's not forget Maine. Polls opened at 6am this morning and will close at 8pm this evening on the ballot question concerning the repeal of the state law permitting gay marriage.


Recent Posts:
State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (11/2/09)

State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (11/1/09)

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (11/1/09)

State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (11/2/09)

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On Election Eve, things in New Jersey are pretty much where they were when the day began: close. All that remains is for the votes to be cast tomorrow. First, however, we here at FHQ have to reconcile how we are going to look at this as the Garden state gubernatorial race comes to a close. As I mentioned last night, the margin between Chris Christie and Jon Corzine was likely to get tighter as the last flurry of polls were released, but that the chance of Christie falling behind Corzine, as has been the case at other poll aggregating sites, was very slim indeed. In fact, the Republicans advantage only fell to 3.4 points.

However, one of the criticisms that FHQ should have gotten, but never did, during the examination of the polling in this race, was the cut off for polls being included in our graduated weighted averages. Somewhat arbitrarily, we have been looking at polls conducted since the first of the year. Again, the earlier a survey was in the field the less it counted in our averages. Still, being that as it may, some of those polls were among the worst for Corzine throughout the year. Out of curiosity, we wanted to see what moving that cut off would do to the numbers. Yes, the first of the year made sense to some extent: people technically closed the book on 2008 and began looking forward to 2009. It could reasonably be argued, though, that some folks didn't really begin paying attention until the general election field was set following Christie's primary victory on June 2. [Others, perhaps, would make the point that even some of those polls are outdated.]

What, though, would FHQ's averages look like if the cut off was moved to June 2 instead of January 1? [Yeah, I thought it was a good question, too.] Well, as might be expected Christie dropped off some; moving from the 43.3% you see above to 41.6% in the post-primary period. Somewhat surprisingly, though, Jon Corzine dropped as well. Given that Corzine was stuck in essentially the same polling position throughout (at least until this last month), that decrease was less pronounced. The incumbent Democrat shifted downward from 39.9% to 39.4%. Yet, the overall margin between the two major party candidates was cut by just about a quarter; from 3.4% to 2.2%

2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Corzine	Christie	Daggett	Undecided
Public Policy Polling [pdf]	Oct. 31-Nov. 1, 2009	+/- 3.1%	994 likely voters	41	47	11	2
Monmouth/Gannett [pdf]	Oct. 31-Nov. 1, 2009	+/- 3.7%	722 likely voters	43	41	8	7
Survey USA	Oct. 30-Nov. 1, 2009	+/- 4.1%	582 likely voters	42	45	10	3
Democracy Corps [pdf]	Oct. 29-Nov. 1, 2009	+/- 4%	606 likely voters	41	36	14	8
Quinnipiac	Oct. 27-Nov. 1, 2009	+/- 2.5%	1533 likely voters	40	42	12	6
Fairleigh Dickinson [pdf]	Oct. 22-Nov. 1, 2009	+/- 3%	1119 likely voters	43	41	8	5
Average				41.67	42	10.5	5.167

Even if we constrain the examination to just a simple average of the days final round of polling (And I've got to admit I'm kind of surprised there wasn't a last minute Rasmussen poll to accompany the six above. I mean, come on, the firm is located in New Jersey.), the underlying message is the same: Christie is ahead, but only slightly so. What does that mean? It means this race -- one in a traditionally blue state -- is tied*. Christie is ahead with something of a national, anti-incumbent wind at his back. Yet, Corzine is within striking distance, has the financial wherewithal, and can lean on a GOTV effort in a blue state that can equalize matters. Oh, and can have fake pro-Daggett robocalls made on the final night of the campaign -- not that it was Corzine directly. My point isn't to crash on Corzine so much as it is to say that this is a close one and while Christie may be slightly ahead, that is offset by the partisan conditions on the ground and the fact that Corzine has run successfully for statewide office twice this decade.

That's got to count for something. But as they say on the sporting fields, that's why they play the game. Score-keeping in that game starts tomorrow at 6am and ends at 8pm.

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*This is what Pollster shows; a 42-42 dead heat. But I've got to say, I'm kind of disappointed in their explanation for not including the new numbers from Fairleigh Dickinson. FHQ backed out the original numbers and treated today's re-release as a new poll. All the FDU folks did was add four days worth of interviews on top of the last survey release. I don't know what the problem is there other than it would have broken up this convenient tie. I'm not buying this overlapping polls explanation, but that's FHQ.

Final Virginia update coming in the morning.


Recent Posts:
State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (11/1/09)

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (11/1/09)

State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/31/09)

State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (11/1/09)

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While the special election in NY-23 may have forced Virginia's gubernatorial race on the backburner, the race for control of the New Jersey executive branch has not met a similar fate. The Garden state contest is every bit as close as things in the 23rd if only lacking in sheer unpredictability. Many talked about Corzine coming back to win, but the incumbent certainly took his time getting started on that trail, and may have an independent candidate's catching fire in the closing weeks for the tightening margin between the Democratic governor and Chris Christie, his Republican rival.

2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Corzine	Christie	Daggett	Undecided
Monmouth/Gannett [pdf]	Oct. 28-30, 2009	+/- 3%	1041 likely voters	42	42	8	5
YouGov/Polimetrix [pdf]	Oct. 27-30, 2009	+/- 4.4%	780 likely voters	43	41	8	8

The two polls released today in the race did nothing to change that. Christie and Corzine are knotted in the low 40s and Chris Daggett seems to be fading slightly heading into Tuesday's vote. Whether that makes his supporters rethink the wisdom of casting a ballot for a third party candidate dropping in the polls, though, remains to be seen.

As for FHQ's averages, they continue to show a tightening race. The margin between the two major party candidates has now slipped below four points with Corzine flirting with the 40% mark and Christie narrowing in on the 43% level. With just a couple of days left for polls to emerge in this race, it is likely safe to say that, unlike other sites that have shown Corzine take the lead, that won't be the case here. There isn't enough time and won't be enough polls to change that in our averages. That said, we will offer an alternative model that shows slightly different results on Monday. It isn't an official change, but it will make for an interesting comparison.

Stay tuned...

Of course, there may be a new poll out in this race before then.

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Recent Posts:
State of the Race: Virginia Governor (11/1/09)

State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/31/09)

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (10/31/09)

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (11/1/09)

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Is anyone even paying attention to this race anymore after what's happened in the special election race in New York's 23rd congressional district? Nah, I didn't think so. However, the two polls that were released today in the Virginia gubernatorial race confirmed what was already known about the contest: Republican Bob McDonnell is heading for a decent sized victory on Tuesday night.

FHQ, in its post-mortems of the 2008 election, discussed the idea that Obama could have ceded about nine points across the board and still would have won in enough states to clear the 270 electoral vote barrier. Virginia was among the states that would have swung over to the red column had that been reality. Sure, we're talking about an off-year election with lower-than-usual turnout, but the swing from a year ago to now in Virginia has been fairly remarkable. Democrats just never got on board with Creigh Deeds and were not as enthusiastic about this election cycle in the Old Dominion as their partisans across the aisle. Would anyone else have made a difference or was McDonnell just destined to become Virginia's next governor (as the occupant of the White House has dictated for the last three plus decades -- Republican in the White House/Democratic Virginia governor and vice versa)?

We political scientists like to attempt to determine whether a campaign has mattered. It is always easiest to see at when a contest is close, but in runaway elections, campaign effects are harder to come by. Yes, they matter, but often only at the margins. We certainly saw that in this race during McDonnell's thesis fallout. Things tightened for a few weeks but there was a decided regression to the mean after that point. It wasn't unlike a kind of convention bounce. And Deeds got two bounces throughout this process: 1) the thesis and 2) his primary victory in June. Other than those two times, McDonnell was in the driver's seat in this race.

2009 Virginia Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Deeds	McDonnell	Undecided
YouGov/Pollimetrix [pdf]	Oct. 27-30, 2009	+/- 4.5%	742 likely voters	40	53	7
Mason-Dixon	Oct. 28-29, 2009	+/- 4%	625 likely voters	41	53	6

Where does that leave us now? Again, it doesn't leave very far away from where we were a day ago. McDonnell has opened up a double digit lead not only in the most recent polls, but in FHQ's averages as well. And no, he's not looking back. The only real question for Virginia on Tuesday is how much Deeds' performance at the top of the ticket is going to affect the down-ballot races. The Senate is not up for grabs this year in Virginia, so the Democrats will maintain their slim advantage in the chamber. However, the rest of the governing apparatus in the Old Dominion is likely to be controlled by the Republican Party. And that leaves this interesting divide between Virginia at the state level and Virginia at the national level (gave Obama its 13 electoral votes a year ago and elected two Democrats to the Senate over the last two cycles).

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Recent Posts:
State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/31/09)

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (10/31/09)

On Overseas Military Voting and September Primaries: Epilogue/Prologue

State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/31/09)

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FHQ is a day late on the updates in New Jersey and Virginia, but it was all for a good cause. Of course, we wanted to do our yearly homage to Halloween, and what better way to do that than in the context of the gubernatorial races in the Garden state and the Old Dominion. [I still like last year's celebratory Halloween post better.]

I had the pleasure of talking with my two favorite New Jerseyans tonight about their thoughts on the gubernatorial race in the Garden state. Both are politically knowledgeable and extremely independent thinkers who spend five to six months out of the year out of the state taking in the rest of our beautiful country. If I had to guess -- and they certainly aren't terribly up front about this -- one is a Democratic leaner and the other is a Republican leaner. And that's if I was forced to guess.

Needless to say, I was excited to have the opportunity to speak with them once I found out they were passing through on their way home to vote on Tuesday. Sure, it is nice to look at poll numbers -- representative ones at that -- but the chance for a two respondent poll was too much to pass up.

The results? Bad news for Corzine.

The money quote? "We're going home to vote; not to vote for someone, but to vote against someone."

President Obama was efficient at "banking" early votes a year ago. A year later, Jon Corzine, the incumbent Democrat Obama is trying to pull over the finish line in this race, has a couple of unbanked votes trekking the final leg of their yearly odyssey across the United States coming home to the Garden state. No, my friends aren't necessarily the bellwether that a state like Missouri has been on the presidential level, but they are a pair of what Tom Jensen at Public Policy Polling has identified as grudging voters; arguably the face of this election on Tuesday.

2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Corzine	Christie	Daggett	Undecided
Rasmussen	Oct. 29, 2009	+/- 3%	1000 likely voters	43	46	8	3
Stockton/Zogby	Oct. 27-29, 2009	+/- 3%	1093 likely voters	40	39	14	6

What does any of this mean? Everything and nothing in the close race that is being depicted in the representative samples that are being polled about this contest. The race for governor is still one that finds the two major party candidates consistently within the margin of error of each other. The two surveys from Rasmussen (no net change from earlier in the week) and Stockton/Zogby didn't stray from that pattern. The former found Republican Chris Christie ahead by a handful of points while the latter (the first poll from this collaboration statewide in this race) found Corzine up a point.

And independent Chris Daggett? Well, he's still the wild card. No, the former Republican is not likely to win on Tuesday, but he and those grudging voters will go a long way toward deciding who will eventually win on November 3. Daggett has leveled off in FHQ's averages of this race (between the 10 and 11 point range). Meanwhile the margin between Corzine and Christie continues to shrink. Christie is still ahead, but that lead is under 3 points now.

And incidentally, I think I've got a couple of Daggett voters staying with me tonight.

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Recent Posts:
State of the Race: Virginia Governor (10/31/09)

On Overseas Military Voting and September Primaries: Epilogue/Prologue

State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/29/09)

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (10/31/09)

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FHQ is a day late on the updates in New Jersey and Virginia, but it was all for a good cause. Of course, we wanted to do our yearly homage to Halloween, and what better way to do that than in the context of the gubernatorial races in the Garden state and the Old Dominion. [I still like last year's celebratory Halloween post better.]

The news in Virginia didn't change all that much on Friday. In fact, it didn't change at all. The Daily Kos/Research 2000 numbers were leaked on Thursday, and according to the time stamp, we're up on Thursday as well (at some point), but when FHQ went to (virtual) press, they had yet to be posted. No, that isn't a huge deal, but we cannot incorporate a new poll in to our averages until the time frame in which the poll was conducted has been determined. Without that the poll cannot be properly weighted. Regardless, the underlying message was still the same. Despite the fact that Creigh Deeds topped the 43% mark (for just the third time in all of October), Republican Bob McDonnell still led, and led by double digits. Deeds did have an over two to one advantage over McDonnell in Northern Virginia and narrowly edged the former attorney general among women, but those figures were easily offset by how well McDonnell is doing in this poll in the rest of the state (outside Northern Virginia -- a nearly two to one lead) and among men (a three to two advantage).

2009 Virginia Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Deeds	McDonnell	Undecided
Daily Kos/Research 2000	Oct. 26-28, 2009	+/- 4%	600 likely voters	44	54	2

The one stat that continues to give McDonnell much of his cushion is how well the Republican is doing among independents in the Old Dominion. That effect is muted in the Kos survey results compared to other recent polls, but is still high enough for McDonnell to maintain a healthy lead over his Democratic opponent (18 points).

What does that mean for this race? Not much. Well, it doesn't mean anything more than we already knew. Bob McDonnell holds a decided and comfortable margin over Deeds heading into Tuesday's election, and it would take a significant upswing in Deeds' likely turnout numbers and a severe bout of complacency among McDonnell supporters for this one to be anything but a McDonnell win. The true test in this race won't likely be when the race is called so much as how quickly.

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Recent Posts:
On Overseas Military Voting and September Primaries: Epilogue/Prologue

State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/29/09)

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (10/29/09)

State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/29/09)

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Further north in New Jersey, the race for governor is shaping up to be a potential all-nighter. [Well, we have to have at least one every election cycle, I suppose. It won't be in New York City or Virginia.] FHQ will resist the urge to say that Corzine has comeback from the dead in this contest. Sure, the governor has inched up slightly of late, but he can't claim to have momentum other than to say that the race is tighter in a traditionally blue state. Fine, that could be considered momentum to some degree, but it pales in comparison to the negative momentum Republican Chris Christie has had in the surveys that have been released over the last handful of weeks. His descent since the end of September (at least in FHQ's measure -- see below) has been a marked contrast to the steady state that was typical of his summer in the polls. [There's no doubt that others saw a more pronounced gain for Christie during June and July.]

2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Corzine	Christie	Daggett	Undecided
Democracy Corps [pdf]	Oct. 27-28, 2009	+/- 4%	604 likely voters	43	38	12	7
Daily Kos/Research 2000	Oct. 26-28, 2009	+/- 4%	600 likely voters	41	42	14	3
Survey USA	Oct. 26-28, 2009	+/- 4%	640 likely & actual voters	43	43	11	3

Those differences aside, this race is much closer than it was when the temperatures were hotter outside. You don't have to look much further than the three new polls released today to see that. But the race is so close, in fact, that people are starting to take note of things like the difference between the method in which polls are conducted -- via live interview or an automated phone call. FHQ mentioned this yesterday and Nate Silver has added his two cents on the matter today. I'm not trying to say I was on top of this first. I wasn't. Jim Geraghrty pointed it out first. Regardless, if you look at the chart at FiveThirtyEight you'll see that Corzine does well in live interview polls and Christie fares best in the automated surveys. Given FHQ's averages at the outset of the post, it is pretty easy to see that, at least statistically, we come down on the side of the automated polls. Our numbers reflect that side more. But that may be more a function of the fact that those polls have been more prevalent throughout the year (Those three polling firms alone make up about a third of the total number of polls conducted since the first of the year.). If you take the FiveThirtyEight data for what it is on the surface, we can look at the averages across the two types of polls and call it a tie; at least a race within the margin of error.

And that's likely where this one is headed on election day. For now, though, we grade Christie as slightly ahead of Corzine with the margin continuing to shrink.

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Recent Posts:
State of the Race: Virginia Governor (10/29/09)

Palin's Poll Numbers Look a Lot Like Quayle's

State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/28/09)