12:26pm: FHQ will return in the morning for some parting shots on Election '09 and to tie up the loose ends in Maine and in CA-10. Everyone has something to spin tonight, but the GOP got the two biggest gets in New Jersey and Virginia.
12:22pm: One last update: Maine's Yes on 1 seems likely to win and repeal the gay marriage law in the Pine Tree state. With about 80% of the precincts in, the lead is nearly 5% for Yes.
[Click to Enlarge]12:16pm:
Hoffman has conceded NY-23.
[Click to Enlarge]12:03pm: Owens has jumped back over 49% with almost 90% of the precincts reporting. If the Democrats win in California's 10th district special election the party will have swept all the congressional special elections in 2009. It hasn't been a good night for the Democratic Party, but that is one thing the DCCC can hang its hat on. Now, in 2010, their task will be more difficult.
[Click to Enlarge]12:00am:
Fox is calling NY-23 for Owens.
[Click to Enlarge]11:55pm: In other words, of those 5800 absentee ballots returned, Hoffman is going to have to win by about 4:1 to make up the difference between himself and Owens. And yeah, a lot of those ballots were returned when Scozzafava was still in the race. That's an uphill climb for Hoffman.
11:52pm: From the
Watertown Daily Times (in NY-23):
"Democrat Bill Owens is leading in the 23rd Congressional District race.The Plattsburgh attorney has 58,851 votes compared to Conservative Doug Hoffman, a Lake Placid CPA, with 55,618 votes.
Dede Scozzafava, a Republican who dropped out of the race Saturday, has 6,749 votes.
There were more than 10,000 absentee votes sent out before the election and some 5,800 were returned and must be counted. More absentee ballots, if sent before the deadline, could still be received.
Owens now leads in Jefferson, St. Lawrence, Franklin, Clinton and Essex counties.
Hoffman leads in Lewis, Oswego, Oneida, Fulton, Hamilton and Madison counties.
Owens is maintaining a 48 percent to 46 percent lead.
Four precincts in St. Lawrence County are having mechanical problems and total results for the county won't be available tonight."
11:42pm: A last glance at New Jersey and Virginia (a lot of red tonight):
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[Click to Enlarge]11:30pm: Also,
The Albany Project is calling NY-23 for Owens. That's an unofficial call.
11:27pm: After a quick nourishment break, FHQ is back. Let's check in on NY-23 and in Maine. Owens continues to hold on with just under 80% reporting and Yes on 1 has stretched a thin lead into a "thin but not quite as thin" edge.
[Click to Enlarge]11:04pm: Just about half of the precincts are reporting in Maine and Yes on 1 (to repeal the gay marriage law passed by the state legislature) is now ahead.
[Click to Enlarge]10:51pm: Maine is down to 37 votes margin. From
Political Wire via Twitter: "Maine gay-marriage initiative currently at a 37-vote difference. Yes, 37. (via
@)."
10:45pm: Not vying for the honor of closest? That would be Virginia's gubernatorial race:
[Click to Enlarge]10:43pm: Well, I suppose NY-23 would have to duke it out with the Maine gay marriage ballot measure for that distinction. Things are slightly tighter in the Pine Tree state than in the North Country.
[Click to Enlarge]10:40pm: Over half precincts are in in Upstate New York. Owens has slipped under 50% and the Democrat's lead is down to under 3 points. Could this one be the close one we've been waiting for?
[Click to Enlarge]10:28pm: Corzine could not pull the Brendan Byrne circa 1977 comeback. There has not been a Democratic come-from-behind in a New Jersey gubernatorial race since then. That's mostly because the Democrats are ahead in the polls. The incumbent Democrat was simple too unpopular statewide and Chris Daggett didn't end up pulling enough actual votes away from Christie to make that a non-factor. That's the way it had been in the October polls in the race. Independents broke for Christie in the end and not Daggett.
[Click to Enlarge]10:22pm: Back to NY-23 (Don't worry we'll return for a few notes on Christie's win.): 31% of precincts are in and Owens is still over 50%. Others have said that the story in Virginia and New Jersey tonight was the independents (both broke for the Republicans), but is a moderate, albeit right-leaning, district going for the moderate Democrat instead of the more ideologically extreme Conservative, Hoffman?
[Click to Enlarge]10:15pm: Had to point that out didn't you, FHQ?
10:13pm: We interrupt NY-23 to announce that the AP has called New Jersey for Christie. Wow! That's a much quicker call than we had anticipated. However, FHQ was 2 for 2 on the gubernatorial calls.
[Click to Enlarge]10:10pm: Granted, the last round of polling in NY-23 had Hoffman pulling ahead. The Conservative Party nominee was the momentum candidate heading into today.
10:08pm: Of course, Erick Erickson (RedState) had this to say (also
via Twitter): "Hoffman race too close to call for now, but they are still cautiously optimistic."
10:06pm: Marc Ambinder on NY-23 (
via Twitter): "Republicans suddenly VERY nervous about NY 23...."
10:04pm: The results are slow to come in up in Maine. With
22% of the precincts reporting, the turnout rate is 81% and No on 1 holds a now very slim lead (50.62%-49.38%).
9:53pm: Nearly two-thirds of the votes are in in New Jersey. I think it is safe to say that Daggett is hurting Jon Corzine. Well, Daggett's having underperformed expectations are anyway. The independent is still at about half of the share FHQ projected him to have based on polling. As we've mentioned that may be a function of the fact that he was the lone alternative to Christie and Corzine in a lot of those polls. The support just wasn't there.
[Click to Enlarge]9:49pm: In local election news, turnout was LIGHT in Winston Salem today. Joines (D) was running unopposed for mayor. I was voter #113 in my precinct.
...at just before 5pm. Yikes!
9:37pm: A quick peek at Virginia: McDonnell is under 60% and Deeds broke the 40% barrier. A big turnaround from a year ago in Virginia.
...for both parties.
[Click to Enlarge]9:30pm:
Owens with the early lead in NY-23. Well, that's a 37-25 lead over Hoffman. Scozzafava has 3. Let's project that one based on less than 1% reporting.
...or not.
[Click to Enlarge]9:22pm: Update from Maine.
No on 1 is ahead as is the medical marijuana. Turnout was 45% (unofficially) in the Pine Tree state today. That's not bad for a ballot full of referenda. Thanks to Jack for the link to the results.
9:08pm: The story so far in New Jersey is that Daggett is underperforming (Ah, the third party election day fade.) while the two major party candidates are overperforming expectations slightly. With just over a quarter of the state reporting, Christie is over 50%. The Republican hadn't seen that level of support in the polls since the summer. What was his last poll with over 50%? An early August Rasmussen poll. It's been a while. Corzine may yet break that 45% barrier we discussed earlier, but for the time being he's in the low 40s.
[Click to Enlarge]9:05pm: Only 501 precincts yet to come in in Virginia. Nope, not getting any closer. Will Deeds break 40%? That is the question. FHQ had him pegged at 41.0%. There's little doubt McDonnell will exceed FHQ's projection.
[Click to Enlarge]8:59pm: I love the map
New York Times has up on their front page. There's nothing like a map being filled in a election results come in:
[Click to Enlarge]8:56pm:
Polls are about to close in NY-23. Let the uncertainty begin dissipating.
...maybe.
8:46pm: FHQ is late to start, but it doesn't look like we missed much
in Virginia:
[Click to Enlarge]That one gets an, "Ouch" rating. I felt like FHQ's averages may have undervalued McDonnell's potential vote share, but Deeds' polling versus Deeds' vote share aren't that different. Yes, I see that it's official in Virginia. Did the above graphic leave any room for doubt?
Recent Posts:
State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (11/3/09) -- Final
State of the Race: Virginia Governor (11/3/09) -- Final
Final Virginia Update coming between 2 & 3 this afternoon.
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