The showdown between the North Carolina House and Senate over the positioning of the Tar Heel state presidential primary in 2016 may be in its waning days. According to North Carolina Republican Party Chair Claude Pope (via Jones and Blount), a deal has been reached between the state party and leaders in the General Assembly to move the North Carolina presidential primary back into compliance with national party delegate selection rules.
The details of the deal were not immediately made clear -- specifically the date of the contest -- but news that defenders of the tethered position in the Senate are open to a change is significant. It was on the Republican-controlled Senate side that the amended version of an omnibus elections bill added the presidential primary date change in 2013. With the end of the 2013 session bearing down on them, and with it pressure to get the elections bill through before that adjournment, the Republican-controlled House went along with the date change.
But that decision has put the North Carolina Republican Party in a vulnerable position ever since. A North Carolina presidential primary scheduled on the Tuesday after a February South Carolina primary would put Tar Heel state Republicans in violation of the Republican National Committee rules; most importantly the so-called super penalty that would reduce the size of a state delegation (with 30 or more delegates) to just 12 delegates. In the case of the North Carolina Republican delegation to the 2016 Republican convention in Cleveland that would mean a more than 80% reduction.
That super penalty has been effective during the 2013-15 period in bringing formerly rogue states like Arizona, Florida and Michigan back into compliance with the national party rules. North Carolina, however, has held out to this point.
That looks to be changing though. The House has already passed legislation to shift the North Carolina presidential primary to March 8. In the lead up to that bill's introduction, there was a push, led by Lieutenant Governor Dan Forest (R), to move the primary back to March 22 to facilitate a winner-take-all primary. Whether that latter option is still on the table remains to be determined. Given that state Senate proponents have valued the earliness of the tethered primary, it would seem that March 8 would likely be the latest date on which they would schedule the primary. But joining the SEC primary on March 1 -- the earliest, compliant date under the rules -- may still be an option as well.
The prognosis for any deal passing the General Assembly would have to be tentatively rated as pretty good. The House bill passed nearly unanimously and as long as the deal sets the primary date on or after March 1, it will likely have the votes of Democrats. The current law has them out of compliance with the Democratic National Committee which places some urgency behind action on their parts as well. Democrats may be in the minority in the North Carolina General Assembly and have options limited to those proposed by Republicans, but they still also have to act to bring about a change.
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Thanks to Jonathan Kappler for the heads up on the Jones and Blount story.
Showing posts with label super penalty. Show all posts
Showing posts with label super penalty. Show all posts
Thursday, June 4, 2015
Wednesday, April 22, 2015
North Carolina Presidential Primary Bill Passes House
With crossover day looming over the proceedings at the North Carolina Capitol in Raleigh, the state House moved quickly on presidential primary legislation that got the green light in committee earlier in the day.
H 457, the bill to move the presidential primary in the Tar Heel state to March 8, was favorably reported from the House Elections Committee on the morning of April 22 and was later in the evening passed by a voice vote on the House floor. The change to the primary date would bring the North Carolina presidential primary back into compliance with the national parties' delegate selection rules. As the law is currently constructed, the North Carolina presidential primary would fall on the Tuesday after the South Carolina primary. Though neither South Carolina party has officially set a primary date for the 2016 cycle, the primary in the Palmetto state is protected as a February primary by the rules of both national parties.
That would pull the North Carolina primary into February and out of compliance with those same national party rules.1 In turn, that means that both parties in North Carolina would face potential delegate reduction penalties. It is the threat of those penalties -- 50% from the DNC and over 80% from the RNC -- that has prompted the North Carolina General Assembly to consider partially reversing course on its 2013 decision to separate the North Carolina presidential primary and move it from May to February. H 457 would not shift the primary back to it traditional position in May, but would instead keep the North Carolina primary early on the presidential primary calendar while nudging it out of the pre-March 1 danger zone.
It has never been a formality that this legislation would pass the lower chamber, but it has a sponsor, Rep. David Lewis (R-53rd, Harnett), who not only chairs the House Elections Committee, but is also the North Carolina national committeeman to the RNC. With the backing of the House speaker, Lewis is a well-positioned advocate for the proposed primary date change. The expected roadblock to changing the primary date has never been in the House. It was the state Senate that added at the last minute the amendment to the omnibus elections bill changing the primary date in 2013. And it is the state Senate where vocal opposition to changing the date exists now. This bill now moves to the Senate side of the capitol building, and it is there that it will perhaps face a sterner test.
...though, there is reason to suggest that the climb will not be as steep as once thought. Senator Bob Rucho (R-39th, Mecklenburg), through whom everything elections-related goes through in the upper chamber, has moderated to some extent his previous stance backing the February date. He said Wednesday, “We’re evaluating and looking at what’s in the best interest of our state.” That is a far cry from his "we're not going to move it unless we get something out of it" position.
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1 Under those rules, no state other than Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina can hold a primary or caucuses before the first Tuesday in March (March 1 for the 2016 cycle).
H 457, the bill to move the presidential primary in the Tar Heel state to March 8, was favorably reported from the House Elections Committee on the morning of April 22 and was later in the evening passed by a voice vote on the House floor. The change to the primary date would bring the North Carolina presidential primary back into compliance with the national parties' delegate selection rules. As the law is currently constructed, the North Carolina presidential primary would fall on the Tuesday after the South Carolina primary. Though neither South Carolina party has officially set a primary date for the 2016 cycle, the primary in the Palmetto state is protected as a February primary by the rules of both national parties.
That would pull the North Carolina primary into February and out of compliance with those same national party rules.1 In turn, that means that both parties in North Carolina would face potential delegate reduction penalties. It is the threat of those penalties -- 50% from the DNC and over 80% from the RNC -- that has prompted the North Carolina General Assembly to consider partially reversing course on its 2013 decision to separate the North Carolina presidential primary and move it from May to February. H 457 would not shift the primary back to it traditional position in May, but would instead keep the North Carolina primary early on the presidential primary calendar while nudging it out of the pre-March 1 danger zone.
It has never been a formality that this legislation would pass the lower chamber, but it has a sponsor, Rep. David Lewis (R-53rd, Harnett), who not only chairs the House Elections Committee, but is also the North Carolina national committeeman to the RNC. With the backing of the House speaker, Lewis is a well-positioned advocate for the proposed primary date change. The expected roadblock to changing the primary date has never been in the House. It was the state Senate that added at the last minute the amendment to the omnibus elections bill changing the primary date in 2013. And it is the state Senate where vocal opposition to changing the date exists now. This bill now moves to the Senate side of the capitol building, and it is there that it will perhaps face a sterner test.
...though, there is reason to suggest that the climb will not be as steep as once thought. Senator Bob Rucho (R-39th, Mecklenburg), through whom everything elections-related goes through in the upper chamber, has moderated to some extent his previous stance backing the February date. He said Wednesday, “We’re evaluating and looking at what’s in the best interest of our state.” That is a far cry from his "we're not going to move it unless we get something out of it" position.
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1 Under those rules, no state other than Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina can hold a primary or caucuses before the first Tuesday in March (March 1 for the 2016 cycle).
Bill to Move North Carolina Presidential Primary Back into Compliance Advances Out of Committee
In a short meeting this morning, April 22, the North Carolina state House Elections Committee considered and passed H 457. The legislation would simplify the current North Carolina presidential primary law, untethering it from the South Carolina primary and scheduling the election for the first Tuesday after the first Monday in March. That would fall on March 8 during the 2016 presidential election cycle, a week after the proposed SEC primary.
Again, the meeting was brief and the committee only consider this one bill. However, the proceedings were seemingly not all that controversial. The idea of moving the primary back to March was met favorably by the committee. The membership only followed up with one question about the costs. The separate presidential primary would cost the state $5 million. That is still the case under the provisions of this bill. It would simply reposition the newly separated consolidate presidential primary. The other primaries for state and local offices continue to fall in May date.1 Members also questioned why not just leave everything in May as has been the custom in North Carolina for the majority of the post-reform era (1972-present). The response from the bill's sponsors was the obvious: the later a primary is, the more likely it is to be insignificant in deciding the nomination.
The only other comment from any of the Elections Committee members was that a presidential primary before March 1 would negatively affect Democrats as well as Republicans. Both state parties would lose delegates -- 50% from the DNC and over 80% from the RNC -- if the primary election was conducted outside of the window prescribed by the national parties (on or after March 1).
The bill was then passed -- seemingly unanimously2 -- with a favorable report and now will head to the House floor for consideration.
Yet, none of this came as unexpected news. The House Elections Committee is chaired by Rep. David Lewis (R-53rd, Harnett), who not only co-sponsored the measure, but is all the Republican national committeeman from North Carolina to the RNC. Shepherding the bill through the committee stage, then, is an afterthought. How well it does on the House floor -- how controversial it is there -- remains to be seen. However, the North Carolina state House has never really been the point of obstruction for any primary move. The real impasse is between the state House and Senate. The latter is where the proponents of the tethered, February presidential primary are.
In other words, this has not heated up much yet.
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1 The current law calls for the non-presidential primaries to be conducted in May as usual. The presidential primary would be separate on the Tuesday after South Carolina. All the bill would do is shift the presidential primary back into compliance with the national party rules.
2 The chair of the committee called the vote for the ayes over any nay votes there may have been. To FHQ's ear, there were no votes in opposition. That reflects the general, non-controversial discussion of the bill.
Again, the meeting was brief and the committee only consider this one bill. However, the proceedings were seemingly not all that controversial. The idea of moving the primary back to March was met favorably by the committee. The membership only followed up with one question about the costs. The separate presidential primary would cost the state $5 million. That is still the case under the provisions of this bill. It would simply reposition the newly separated consolidate presidential primary. The other primaries for state and local offices continue to fall in May date.1 Members also questioned why not just leave everything in May as has been the custom in North Carolina for the majority of the post-reform era (1972-present). The response from the bill's sponsors was the obvious: the later a primary is, the more likely it is to be insignificant in deciding the nomination.
The only other comment from any of the Elections Committee members was that a presidential primary before March 1 would negatively affect Democrats as well as Republicans. Both state parties would lose delegates -- 50% from the DNC and over 80% from the RNC -- if the primary election was conducted outside of the window prescribed by the national parties (on or after March 1).
The bill was then passed -- seemingly unanimously2 -- with a favorable report and now will head to the House floor for consideration.
Yet, none of this came as unexpected news. The House Elections Committee is chaired by Rep. David Lewis (R-53rd, Harnett), who not only co-sponsored the measure, but is all the Republican national committeeman from North Carolina to the RNC. Shepherding the bill through the committee stage, then, is an afterthought. How well it does on the House floor -- how controversial it is there -- remains to be seen. However, the North Carolina state House has never really been the point of obstruction for any primary move. The real impasse is between the state House and Senate. The latter is where the proponents of the tethered, February presidential primary are.
In other words, this has not heated up much yet.
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1 The current law calls for the non-presidential primaries to be conducted in May as usual. The presidential primary would be separate on the Tuesday after South Carolina. All the bill would do is shift the presidential primary back into compliance with the national party rules.
2 The chair of the committee called the vote for the ayes over any nay votes there may have been. To FHQ's ear, there were no votes in opposition. That reflects the general, non-controversial discussion of the bill.
Tuesday, April 21, 2015
What the AP Gets Wrong About the North Carolina Presidential Primary Situation
Kudos to Gary Robertson -- the AP's Raleigh reporter -- for touching base with FHQ on this. They have revised the article cited below.
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Let's take a moment to fact check one bit of background information that found its way into an Associated Press news blurb about the North Carolina state House Elections Committee considering legislation to change the date of the presidential primary in the Tar Heel state.
That is true. However, it leaves off one very important part of the timeline: That the RNC had rules and penalties with regard to state behavior for the 2016 presidential nomination cycle in place coming out of the August 2012 national convention in Tampa. North Carolina legislators acted in 2013 despite that or blissfully ignorant of those penalties.
This is not the first instance in which this has come up. FHQ has addressed this before:
...or at least make clearer that North Carolina acted in 2013 in defiance of RNC rules for 2016 that were already in place.
That is kind of an important part of this discussion.
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Let's take a moment to fact check one bit of background information that found its way into an Associated Press news blurb about the North Carolina state House Elections Committee considering legislation to change the date of the presidential primary in the Tar Heel state.
A state law passed in 2013 moved the primary from May to February. National Republicans have since told states not to hold primaries in February to avoid interfering with primary contests in four traditionally early states, including South Carolina. [Emphasis FHQ's]I'm sorry, but this is misleading. Yes, the Republican National Committee has certainly been telling North Carolina and any other state that February is a period on the presidential primary that is reserved for the four carve-out states; Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. But the implication is that there is a timeline here. North Carolina provocatively moved its primary to a non-compliant position on the 2016 presidential primary calendar and the RNC reacted.
That is true. However, it leaves off one very important part of the timeline: That the RNC had rules and penalties with regard to state behavior for the 2016 presidential nomination cycle in place coming out of the August 2012 national convention in Tampa. North Carolina legislators acted in 2013 despite that or blissfully ignorant of those penalties.
This is not the first instance in which this has come up. FHQ has addressed this before:
Rucho mentions in Wollner's piece that the RNC created an arbitrary rule -- the super penalty -- after the North Carolina primary law was changed. However arbitrary that rule may or may not be, it was in place before the North Carolina presidential primary law was altered in 2013, anchoring the contest to South Carolina's. The late Bob Bennett, former chairman of the Ohio Republican Party, devised the more severe penalty -- often called the Bennett Rule in RNC circles -- and saw it passed with the rules package for 2016 at the Tampa convention in 2012. That clearly precedes the late addition of the presidential primary amendment to the 2013 omnibus elections bill that passed through the General Assembly in the waning moments of a special session. The potential run-in with the Bennett Rule/super penalty was something that FHQ raised immediately upon hearing that the North Carolina primary could change positions in July 2013.The AP seems to have bought the contention from North Carolina state Senator Bob Rucho (R-39th, Mecklenburg) that the RNC created the penalties after North Carolina moved its primary. That is false. The penalties were in place prior to the action from the North Carolina General Assembly. The AP should report that.
...or at least make clearer that North Carolina acted in 2013 in defiance of RNC rules for 2016 that were already in place.
That is kind of an important part of this discussion.
Thursday, April 9, 2015
The Presidential Primary Impasse Between Chambers in the North Carolina General Assembly
The looming standoff between the North Carolina state House and Senate over the scheduling of the 2016 presidential primary is not anything new. However, Adam Wollner at the National Journal does add some depth to the story. The main cog in the Senate machinery blocking any effort to more clearly define the date of the presidential primary (move it back into compliance with national party rules) in the Tar Heel state is Senator Bob Rucho (R-39th, Mecklenburg), and Wollner found no lack of people willing to come forward to voice their opinion on the Matthews Republican.
A sampling:
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A few additional thoughts:
Rucho mentions in Wollner's piece that the RNC created an arbitrary rule -- the super penalty -- after the North Carolina primary law was changed. However arbitrary that rule may or may not be, it was in place before the North Carolina presidential primary law was altered in 2013, anchoring the contest to South Carolina's. The late Bob Bennett, former chairman of the Ohio Republican Party, devised the more severe penalty -- often called the Bennett Rule in RNC circles -- and saw it passed with the rules package for 2016 at the Tampa convention in 2012. That clearly precedes the late addition of the presidential primary amendment to the 2013 omnibus elections bill that passed through the General Assembly in the waning moments of a special session. The potential run-in with the Bennett Rule/super penalty was something that FHQ raised immediately upon hearing that the North Carolina primary could change positions in July 2013.
So, there is a stand-off between the North Carolina House and Senate. So what? We know that. If reporters nationally or in North Carolina want to advance this story in a meaningful way here are some interesting questions to ask:
...and itself.
A sampling:
"Senator Rucho is kind of a legend here for being one of the most cantankerous and hard-to-get-along-with senators," said Nathan Babcock, the political director at the North Carolina Chamber of Commerce. "He's not a 'go along to get along' type person."
"Others have told me behind the scenes, 'Hey, we're going to move it,'" one senior North Carolina Republican official said, referring to the state senators who support a February primary. "But Rucho's never cracked. He's always said we're not going to move it unless we get something out of it."Fair enough.
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A few additional thoughts:
Rucho mentions in Wollner's piece that the RNC created an arbitrary rule -- the super penalty -- after the North Carolina primary law was changed. However arbitrary that rule may or may not be, it was in place before the North Carolina presidential primary law was altered in 2013, anchoring the contest to South Carolina's. The late Bob Bennett, former chairman of the Ohio Republican Party, devised the more severe penalty -- often called the Bennett Rule in RNC circles -- and saw it passed with the rules package for 2016 at the Tampa convention in 2012. That clearly precedes the late addition of the presidential primary amendment to the 2013 omnibus elections bill that passed through the General Assembly in the waning moments of a special session. The potential run-in with the Bennett Rule/super penalty was something that FHQ raised immediately upon hearing that the North Carolina primary could change positions in July 2013.
So, there is a stand-off between the North Carolina House and Senate. So what? We know that. If reporters nationally or in North Carolina want to advance this story in a meaningful way here are some interesting questions to ask:
- The North Carolina law does not account for the fact that South Carolina Republicans and Democrats do not always or even often hold presidential primaries on the same date. In the event that there are separate dates for those primaries in the Palmetto state, to which primary is the North Carolina contest tethered? The North Carolina law provides no guidance. If the interpretation is that it has to follow the likely February 20 Republican primary in South Carolina, it is much more problematic than if it were to follow the February 27 Souther Carolina Democratic primary. The former would force the North Carolina primary into a non-compliant February 23 primary, triggering the super penalty. But the latter would mean the North Carolina presidential primary would fall on March 1, in compliance with the national party rules. If Rucho wants to maintain the status quo, this is probably the best argument to make: that there is nothing to worry about.
- But let's assume this story continues down the same road, straight into a roadblock. Furthermore, let's assume the North Carolina General Assembly is unable to pass legislation -- either in the regular 2015 session or a special session later this year -- and the primary is non-compliant. Well, how willing is the North Carolina Republican Party to stand idly by and just take the super penalty? Would they like Missouri Republicans before them in 2011 be open to switching to caucuses within the permitted timeframe in order to avoid the penalty?
...and itself.
Wednesday, April 1, 2015
North Carolina Bill to Untether Presidential Primary from South Carolina's Introduced
North Carolina state Rep. David Lewis (R-53rd, Harnett) and two other House Republicans on Wednesday, April 1 filed H 457 in the North Carolina General Assembly. The bill would in some ways reverse the changes made to the scheduling of the North Carolina presidential primary in an omnibus elections bill in 2013.
As it stands now, the law anchors the North Carolina presidential primary to the presidential primary in neighboring South Carolina. The primary, according to the law, would fall on the Tuesday after the South Carolina primary. Enacting that law was a problematic maneuver from the start. South Carolina has had its first in the South status codified at the national party level over the last couple of presidential election cycles and prefers to have both a Saturday primary and one that is at least seven days earlier than the next earliest southern state presidential primary. The North Carolina law conflicts with all of that. Not only would a primary on the Tuesday after South Carolina fall within that seven day buffer South Carolina prefers, but the position of the South Carolina primary would likely draw the North Carolina primary to a point on the calendar -- in February -- that would violate the new, stricter Republican National Committee rule prohibiting primaries and caucuses (other than the four carve-out state) before March 1.
The specter of that super penalty looms large over the North Carolina presidential primary situation. That reality likely contributed to Lewis -- the Republican National Committeeman from North Carolina -- to introduce this legislation. And again, it somewhat reverses the changes made in 2013. H 457 would pull the North Carolina presidential primary back to a solid position on March 8, but would maintain the May date for the other primaries. Throughout much of the post-reform era, North Carolina has conducted its presidential primaries in concert with those for state and local offices on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in May. The 2013 law split off the presidential primary part and tethered that election to the date of the primary in South Carolina. The remaining primaries were left on the May date.
The proposed change would move just the presidential primary to the first Tuesday after the first Monday in March; March 8 during the 2016 cycle. That would not coincide with the SEC primary -- a collection of other southern state presidential primaries -- on March 1. Instead, it would have North Carolina sharing a date with contests across the country in Michigan, Mississippi and Ohio and likely Idaho as well. Such a shift would also put North Carolina Republicans in the heart of the proportionality window. North Carolina law requires a proportional allocation of delegates, but RNC rules supersede those requirements when in conflict. For North Carolina, though, the RNC would require some form of proportional allocation before March 15.
Other notes:
As it stands now, the law anchors the North Carolina presidential primary to the presidential primary in neighboring South Carolina. The primary, according to the law, would fall on the Tuesday after the South Carolina primary. Enacting that law was a problematic maneuver from the start. South Carolina has had its first in the South status codified at the national party level over the last couple of presidential election cycles and prefers to have both a Saturday primary and one that is at least seven days earlier than the next earliest southern state presidential primary. The North Carolina law conflicts with all of that. Not only would a primary on the Tuesday after South Carolina fall within that seven day buffer South Carolina prefers, but the position of the South Carolina primary would likely draw the North Carolina primary to a point on the calendar -- in February -- that would violate the new, stricter Republican National Committee rule prohibiting primaries and caucuses (other than the four carve-out state) before March 1.
The specter of that super penalty looms large over the North Carolina presidential primary situation. That reality likely contributed to Lewis -- the Republican National Committeeman from North Carolina -- to introduce this legislation. And again, it somewhat reverses the changes made in 2013. H 457 would pull the North Carolina presidential primary back to a solid position on March 8, but would maintain the May date for the other primaries. Throughout much of the post-reform era, North Carolina has conducted its presidential primaries in concert with those for state and local offices on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in May. The 2013 law split off the presidential primary part and tethered that election to the date of the primary in South Carolina. The remaining primaries were left on the May date.
The proposed change would move just the presidential primary to the first Tuesday after the first Monday in March; March 8 during the 2016 cycle. That would not coincide with the SEC primary -- a collection of other southern state presidential primaries -- on March 1. Instead, it would have North Carolina sharing a date with contests across the country in Michigan, Mississippi and Ohio and likely Idaho as well. Such a shift would also put North Carolina Republicans in the heart of the proportionality window. North Carolina law requires a proportional allocation of delegates, but RNC rules supersede those requirements when in conflict. For North Carolina, though, the RNC would require some form of proportional allocation before March 15.
Other notes:
- This proposed shift is consistent with the resolution that has made the rounds at Republican County Conventions and other organization meetings recently. That resolution called on a later primary date that would not affect (the numbers in) the North Carolina Republican delegation to the national convention. It furthermore urged the North Carolina General Assembly to consider consolidating all the primaries in North Carolina on that later date (as has been the past practice in the Old North state, albeit in May). However, that resolution has opened the door to discussions across the state about whether it might be better for North Carolina Republicans to maximize the voice of the voters through a winner-take-all contests. The resolution does not call for a March 15 or later date, but that idea is out there. A March 8 primary would not allow such an allocation plan.
- The bigger thing here is that this move has been expected for a while now. The shoe has finally dropped in the state House as expected. There is legislation to move the North Carolina primary to a firmer and permanent date, but as has been detailed in this space, a move of this sort is not something with which the state Senate seems to be onboard. The chambers have been at odds on this issue to some degree since the state Senate added, passed and forced on the state House an amendment affecting the presidential primary date on the last day of a special legislative session with the clock ticking. Overcoming two chambers at odds with each other over the scheduling of the presidential primary is still a significant roadblock to the North Carolina primary coming back into compliance with the national party delegate selection rules.
Monday, March 30, 2015
Resolution Circulating at Republican County Conventions Calling on a Later North Carolina Presidential Primary
There was a flurry of reporting on the provocative positioning of the North Carolina presidential primary both here and elsewhere at the end of February, but it has been pretty quiet on that front in the month since. Most of the reactions in February were precipitated by the op-ed North Carolina Republican Party chairman, Claude Pope, wrote urging the North Carolina General Assembly to consider legislation pushing the presidential primary in the Tar Heel state back to March 1.
A wider, national discussion of the costs and benefits of a rogue North Carolina presidential primary was not the only byproduct of that call from Chairman Pope. Local Republican parties in reaction also began considering a resolution that also urged the General Assembly to move the primary back into compliance with the national party rules.1 Those efforts, in turn, triggered a more robust discussion of the primary's position on the calendar among Republicans across the state.
The resolution (see below) has apparently garnered support in Republican organizations across the state. That is, perhaps, less important than what changes it calls on the legislature to make. Layered into this is a request that the General Assembly not only move the primary back into compliance with the national party rules, but to consider both moving the North Carolina presidential primary to a position on the calendar that allows the North Carolina Republican Party maximum latitude in choosing how to allocate its delegates to the national convention and moving the primaries for state and local offices into the same position as the presidential primary. The former means a date on or after March 15, not the March 1 date that Chairman Pope outlined. The latter means cost savings to the taxpayers of North Carolina who would not have to foot the bill for multiple primaries and runoff elections with a presidential primary separated from the remaining nomination contests.
The concurrent primaries request is a no-brainer in a state that has traditionally held all of its primaries together on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in May during much of the post-reform era. But opening the door to a possible winner-take-all primary in North Carolina is of greater note. North Carolina law calls for a proportional allocation of delegates to the national convention2, but Republican National Committee rules (see Rule 16(b) here) allow state parties to create their own rules (within the parameters of the national party rules) that supersede any state law should their be a conflict. North Carolina Republicans have generally followed the state law in past presidential election cycles, so a move to a winner-take-all allocation method would break with that tradition.
No, there are not any bills currently before the North Carolina state legislature, but there is external pressure being exerted on the body to make a change to the presidential primary date. And now, it appears to be more than national pressure, direct or otherwise. There looks to be a local component adding to the intricacy of the situation as well.
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1 Below is the resolution as posted on the Greater Greensboro Republican Women's Club site:
A wider, national discussion of the costs and benefits of a rogue North Carolina presidential primary was not the only byproduct of that call from Chairman Pope. Local Republican parties in reaction also began considering a resolution that also urged the General Assembly to move the primary back into compliance with the national party rules.1 Those efforts, in turn, triggered a more robust discussion of the primary's position on the calendar among Republicans across the state.
The resolution (see below) has apparently garnered support in Republican organizations across the state. That is, perhaps, less important than what changes it calls on the legislature to make. Layered into this is a request that the General Assembly not only move the primary back into compliance with the national party rules, but to consider both moving the North Carolina presidential primary to a position on the calendar that allows the North Carolina Republican Party maximum latitude in choosing how to allocate its delegates to the national convention and moving the primaries for state and local offices into the same position as the presidential primary. The former means a date on or after March 15, not the March 1 date that Chairman Pope outlined. The latter means cost savings to the taxpayers of North Carolina who would not have to foot the bill for multiple primaries and runoff elections with a presidential primary separated from the remaining nomination contests.
The concurrent primaries request is a no-brainer in a state that has traditionally held all of its primaries together on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in May during much of the post-reform era. But opening the door to a possible winner-take-all primary in North Carolina is of greater note. North Carolina law calls for a proportional allocation of delegates to the national convention2, but Republican National Committee rules (see Rule 16(b) here) allow state parties to create their own rules (within the parameters of the national party rules) that supersede any state law should their be a conflict. North Carolina Republicans have generally followed the state law in past presidential election cycles, so a move to a winner-take-all allocation method would break with that tradition.
No, there are not any bills currently before the North Carolina state legislature, but there is external pressure being exerted on the body to make a change to the presidential primary date. And now, it appears to be more than national pressure, direct or otherwise. There looks to be a local component adding to the intricacy of the situation as well.
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1 Below is the resolution as posted on the Greater Greensboro Republican Women's Club site:
Whereas: North Carolina 2013 election law changed the date of the North Carolina Presidential Primary from mid-May to late February;2 This is a function of delegate selection/allocation rules historically mandated by the Democratic Party. To comply with the rules requiring a proportional allocation of delegates, Democrats in control of the North Carolina General Assembly created the law requiring it. That law has been in place as it is currently written since 1983.
Whereas: Republican National Committee (RNC) rule changes of January, 2014 require that only four states, Iowa, South Carolina, New Hampshire, and Nevada, be allowed to hold their presidential primaries before March 1;
Whereas: RNC rules penalize any state holding its presidential primary prior to March 1 by drastically reducing that state’s number of allowable delegates to the National Republican Presidential Convention to no more than 12 delegates;
Whereas: The North Carolina Republican Party will be allowed 72 delegates to the 2016 National Republican Presidential Convention if it complies with RNC rules;
Whereas: Additionally, RNC rules dictate that states holding their presidential primary between the dates of March 1 and March 15 must allocate their delegates to the National Presidential Convention proportionally rather than having the option of proportionality versus winner-take-all allocation;
Whereas: Previous North Carolina primaries in presidential years have been inclusive of presidential, state, and local races, rather than having a separate presidential primary and a state/local primary.
Whereas: Creating separate dates for the North Carolina Presidential Primary and the North Carolina primary for state and local races increases the costs to the state and counties for the duplicate voting requirements.
Be it Resolved on this __th day of _____, 2015, that the _______________________: (1) Supports the NCGOP in selecting a presidential primary date that complies with RNC rules, and (2) Encourages the NC General Assembly to change the North Carolina presidential primary date from one in February to one that will allow maximum Republican delegate allocation to the National Republican Presidential Convention while still giving North Carolina more influence in the selection of the Republican presidential candidate, and (3) Encourages the NC General Assembly to specify that the primary for all NC national, state and local contests be the same date as the newly-selected NC presidential primary date, thereby eliminating the need for additional primary dates.
Tuesday, March 3, 2015
The Slippery Slope in North Carolina Rogue Primary Coverage
There is one narrative that seems to be emerging in the coverage of the North Carolina presidential primary drama that is not necessarily true to the spirit of the legislative wrangling that brought the Tar Heel state into the crosshairs of the national parties. It goes something like this:
Yes, legislators in Raleigh passed HB 589 in the summer of 2013. And yes, it moved the presidential primary out of May, tethering it to the likely February South Carolina primary. But decision-makers in North Carolina have not suddenly in 2015 found religion and awakened to the possibility of sanctions from the Republican National Committee.
Those penalties -- the so-called super penalty -- were in place coming out of the 2012 Republican National Convention in Tampa. And though the penalty was tweaked between that time and the summer of 2014 when the RNC finalized its delegate rules for 2016, how North Carolina would have been affected by the penalty -- assuming a rogue primary date -- never changed. Additionally, Rep. David Lewis (R-53rd, Harnett) was in the state House and was North Carolina Republicans' national committeeman representative on the RNC.1
Overall, though, this North Carolina dilemma is less a story of legislative indecision than it is a story of legislative process. The 2013 omnibus elections bill -- HB 589 -- originated in the North Carolina House. The version that passed the state House did not contain any language affecting the positioning of the North Carolina presidential primary. It was not until the bill got to the state Senate that the presidential primary provision was added.
There are two other important elements to this that help set the context in 2013. First, the bill was controversial and ladened with changes to the way elections would subsequently be conducted in North Carolina. Provisions cutting back on the number of days of early voting and requiring a photo ID were the big ticket items and received exponentially more scrutiny. The presidential primary portion of the lengthy bill was at best an afterthought. In combination with that was the timing of all of this. The state Senate committee substitute to the House-passed bill hit the floor of the Senate for consideration with the clock running out on the 2013 legislative session. Republicans in control of the legislature wanted to pass something and send some elections changes to the new-in-2013 Republican governor's desk to be signed into law.
Here is a situation, then, where you have a throwaway primary provision in a bill that is being considered in an environment in which legislators are rushing to pass something, anything to change up the elections system in North Carolina.
The state Senate passed the bill after 5PM on the final day of the session. The bill then went to the House, which had to either concur with the Senate changes -- including the presidential primary provision -- or tweak those changes and send the bill back to the Senate. Again, the House got this bill after 5PM on the last day of the session. To concur meant to go home. Amending the Senate changes, however, meant prolonging the process even further.
That was the decision the representatives in the state House faced. Agree and go home or change and keep at it into the night. They chose the former, passing the bill along party lines and calling it a session.
Again, this isn't a story about indecision. If anything this further extends the battle lines that are drawn between the North Carolina House and Senate. The state Senate added the primary provision in 2013 and is defending it now. Members in the House may or may not have wanted to go along with that at the time. Those in the House and the North Carolina Republican Party may regret that decision now, but that is not part of some flip-flop they have done on the scheduling of the North Carolina presidential primary.
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1 How well known those RNC penalties were to legislators at the time of the bill's passage is an unknown in all of this. In the immediate aftermath of the bill being signed into law, some North Carolina senators were already defiant.
"Two years ago lawmakers decided to make the primary earlier - on the first Tuesday after South Carolina's, next February. State GOP Chairman Claude Pope now wants the primary moved to March 1st. He says the national Republican Party is threatening to take away delegates from North Carolina for the earlier primary."Now, FHQ does not want to pick on WUNC's Jeff Tiberii. His piece is a short blog post -- and he is certainly not alone in this -- but it is representative of the direction some of the other media coverage on the North Carolina presidential primary situation is going. The implication is that decision-makers in North Carolina just cannot make up their minds. They were for an early presidential primary before they were against it.
Yes, legislators in Raleigh passed HB 589 in the summer of 2013. And yes, it moved the presidential primary out of May, tethering it to the likely February South Carolina primary. But decision-makers in North Carolina have not suddenly in 2015 found religion and awakened to the possibility of sanctions from the Republican National Committee.
Those penalties -- the so-called super penalty -- were in place coming out of the 2012 Republican National Convention in Tampa. And though the penalty was tweaked between that time and the summer of 2014 when the RNC finalized its delegate rules for 2016, how North Carolina would have been affected by the penalty -- assuming a rogue primary date -- never changed. Additionally, Rep. David Lewis (R-53rd, Harnett) was in the state House and was North Carolina Republicans' national committeeman representative on the RNC.1
Overall, though, this North Carolina dilemma is less a story of legislative indecision than it is a story of legislative process. The 2013 omnibus elections bill -- HB 589 -- originated in the North Carolina House. The version that passed the state House did not contain any language affecting the positioning of the North Carolina presidential primary. It was not until the bill got to the state Senate that the presidential primary provision was added.
There are two other important elements to this that help set the context in 2013. First, the bill was controversial and ladened with changes to the way elections would subsequently be conducted in North Carolina. Provisions cutting back on the number of days of early voting and requiring a photo ID were the big ticket items and received exponentially more scrutiny. The presidential primary portion of the lengthy bill was at best an afterthought. In combination with that was the timing of all of this. The state Senate committee substitute to the House-passed bill hit the floor of the Senate for consideration with the clock running out on the 2013 legislative session. Republicans in control of the legislature wanted to pass something and send some elections changes to the new-in-2013 Republican governor's desk to be signed into law.
Here is a situation, then, where you have a throwaway primary provision in a bill that is being considered in an environment in which legislators are rushing to pass something, anything to change up the elections system in North Carolina.
The state Senate passed the bill after 5PM on the final day of the session. The bill then went to the House, which had to either concur with the Senate changes -- including the presidential primary provision -- or tweak those changes and send the bill back to the Senate. Again, the House got this bill after 5PM on the last day of the session. To concur meant to go home. Amending the Senate changes, however, meant prolonging the process even further.
That was the decision the representatives in the state House faced. Agree and go home or change and keep at it into the night. They chose the former, passing the bill along party lines and calling it a session.
Again, this isn't a story about indecision. If anything this further extends the battle lines that are drawn between the North Carolina House and Senate. The state Senate added the primary provision in 2013 and is defending it now. Members in the House may or may not have wanted to go along with that at the time. Those in the House and the North Carolina Republican Party may regret that decision now, but that is not part of some flip-flop they have done on the scheduling of the North Carolina presidential primary.
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1 How well known those RNC penalties were to legislators at the time of the bill's passage is an unknown in all of this. In the immediate aftermath of the bill being signed into law, some North Carolina senators were already defiant.
Wednesday, February 25, 2015
Why North Carolina is the Biggest Threat to the 2016 Presidential Primary Calendar
FHQ runs the risk, perhaps, of over-North Carolinaing this North Carolina presidential primary situation. Yet, like Florida four years ago, it is pretty clear now, and has been for quite a while, that North Carolina was not necessarily going to play along with the established Republican National Committee delegate selection rules. Just as I harped on the fact that the RNC did not change its 50% penalty for 2012 and that Florida had already demonstrated in 2008 that that was not a sufficient penalty, North Carolina has seemingly wedged itself into a position on the calendar that may make the RNC achieving its ideal calendar more difficult.1
It is kind of important, then, and warrants some discussion.
As it is important, let me add to the piece that CNN's Peter Hamby has on the subject today. Whereas the Charlotte Observer's Jim Morrill added a North Carolina-level perspective, Hamby layered in some of the national party (RNC) point of view. Both are key.
But allow me a moment to add to all of this the rationale for why FHQ views North Carolina as the biggest threat to go rogue in 2016. Hamby approached me for my perspective on the situation and I responded in typical "obsessive detail". Understandably, Hamby had a story to write that was bigger than just my perspective, but let me throw in a bit more nuance. Here is my email response to his query (edited for clarity):
North Carolina is the biggest threat to the calendar now because there is an uncertainty around the primary here that does not exist elsewhere. There are two groups of potential problem states: 1) Those that are currently rogue and 2) Those that are trying to be rogue.
None of the states in the latter category -- those with bills or likely bills -- to move into pre-March calendar positions are really serious attempts. There has been pretty robust negative reaction to possible moves in Arizona, Texas and Vermont, and the likely Wisconsin attempt does not have the support of Republicans in the majority in the state legislature. At this point, none of that group appears to pose a viable threat.
The first group is a little different. Those are states that have to make some change to move to a later date (or choose the later of the options available to them). In that group are Colorado, New York, North Carolina and Utah. I have no inside knowledge, but Colorado is likely to opt for the March date available to them (March 1) over a non-compliant February position. [EDIT: It has been quiet in Colorado on this question.]
Utah is feeling the pinch on both ends of the calendar (non-compliant on both) and may switch to caucuses anyway. [EDIT: Both primary options currently available to Utah are non-compliant with RNC rules.]
New York is only back in February on something of a technicality. The move to April in 2011 expired after 2012 which put the primary back in February. My guess is that the intention of the sunset provision was not to be rogue in 2016 so much as it was a function of providing the legislature with a reason to have to revisit the date [EDIT: in the future]. If April had been permanent, it likely would have been more difficult to get any change passed in the legislature there. Now, they have to make a change. The NYGOP wants a March 1 date.
That leaves North Carolina. To avoid the super penalty, the North Carolina primary has to be moved to March 1 or later. You've [Hamby] reported that there are folks in the NCGOP who support keeping the primary where it is. I would wager there is similar sentiment in the North Carolina General Assembly. How much? I don't know. Sen. Andrew Brock (R), who brought up legislation every cycle to move the North Carolina primary up dating back to 2005 or so, has said he is supportive of the February date [EDIT: ...and possibly ceding delegates in the process]. Whether that support stops with him in the legislature or runs deeper is the question now. [I should add that none of the bills he introduced [EDIT: in the past] ever proposed going rogue. The primary would have been moved to the earliest allowed date in each of those cycles. He and others may be open to March 1.]
So, there is some resistance to moving the primary, but we don't know how much. There is also support for a move back into compliance with the national party rules. And while symbolic -- the NCGOP chair and the RNC committeeman from North Carolina (Rep. David Lewis) -- that support is from the top. That may or may not be met with some hostility. Like the resistance to changing the date, we don't know how deep support for a compliant primary runs in either the NCGOP or the general assembly.
Adding to this is the politics of the legislature. The Republicans control both chambers but the House and Senate have been at odds with each other on a number of controversial items over the past few years. [EDIT: This hypothesis was made early yesterday before the apparent House/Senate divide on the presidential primary scheduling became clear.] That tension could factor into moving the primary date. It may also require Republicans in the majority reaching over to get Democratic votes to get something passed. Democrats would likely be interested in a compliant date as well. [Though, it should be said that the North Carolina Democratic Party could file for a waiver to avoid sanction since they don't control state government. How open the DNC would be to granting that waiver is a question for further down the road. EDIT: see Rule 20.C of the Democratic Party delegate selection rules.]
Long story short, there are just more unanswered questions regarding the North Carolina position on the primary calendar than there are for other rogue or potentially rogue states.
Unanswered questions there may be, but what is different about North Carolina -- as compared to, say, Florida in 2008 or 2012 -- is that the Tar Heel state has not drawn a line in the sand. Instead, North Carolina has driven a stake into the ground next to South Carolina and will go wherever the Palmetto state goes. That is a different problem, one that likely means more pressure from the Republican National Committee and perhaps even some inventive tactics in South Carolina.
Does South Carolina, for instance, mimic the tried and true New Hampshire process of blackballing candidates -- in the South Carolina campaign -- who campaign in North Carolina? If the super penalty from the national party does not work as intended, it may come to that.
Does South Carolina, for instance, mimic the tried and true New Hampshire process of blackballing candidates -- in the South Carolina campaign -- who campaign in North Carolina? If the super penalty from the national party does not work as intended, it may come to that.
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1 And bear in mind that there is no North Carolina position on the calendar yet. Until there is a date for the South Carolina primary, there will not be a date for the North Carolina primary. All we know at this point is that South Carolina will be in February sometime and that North Carolina law call for the primary in the Tar Heel state to follow on the next Tuesday after that.
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Tuesday, February 24, 2015
North Carolina House and Senate at Odds Over Presidential Primary Date
An inter-chamber dispute in the General Assembly may keep the North Carolina presidential primary right where it is: out of compliance with both national parties' delegate selection rules.
Jim Morrill is reporting in the Charlotte Observer that there is support for moving the primary to a later date in the North Carolina House. Not surprisingly, Rep. David Lewis (R-53rd-Harnett), the House Elections Committee chair and the national committeeman from North Carolina to the Republican National Committee, has voiced a similar opinion to that of North Carolina Republican Party chairman, Claude Pope, Jr. On moving the primary back to March 1, Lewis said,
This primary date -- tethered to the South Carolina primary -- is the Senate's baby. And it shows in the comments from proponents of the likely February primary date in the upper chamber. Sen. Bob Rucho (R-39th, Mecklenburg), who is a member of the Judiciary I Committee that handles elections matter in the state Senate had this to say (again, via Morrill),
But all may work out. If South Carolina schedules its presidential primary for Tuesday, February 23, 2016, then the North Carolina primary would follow on March 1; making everyone happy. Getting there is not that simple, though. South Carolina typically holds a Saturday primary. South Carolina Republicans also like at least a week between it and the next southern state on the primary calendar. That combination eliminates the possibility of moving the South Carolina Republican primary to the Saturday, February 27.
On top of that, how is one to interpret the North Carolina law if the state parties in South Carolina hold primaries on different dates? Does North Carolina follow the earliest primary? The Republican primary? That is not clear and there is no guidance in the North Carolina law to account for an eventuality that occurs in South Carolina more often than not.
This one could get messy before it is all said and done. But North Carolina will undoubtedly lose over 80% of its delegates if it continues on the course it is on unless the stars align to force South Carolina into an uncommon Tuesday primary.
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Jim Morrill is reporting in the Charlotte Observer that there is support for moving the primary to a later date in the North Carolina House. Not surprisingly, Rep. David Lewis (R-53rd-Harnett), the House Elections Committee chair and the national committeeman from North Carolina to the Republican National Committee, has voiced a similar opinion to that of North Carolina Republican Party chairman, Claude Pope, Jr. On moving the primary back to March 1, Lewis said,
“It makes sense, I hope the General Assembly will act accordingly. I think it will maintain North Carolina’s relevancy and have the economic boost we all hope for.”But that support of moving the presidential primary back into compliance with the national party rules seemingly ends at the chamber door. It does not stretch across the capitol building to the state Senate. Republican control of the General Assembly has been hampered at times between competing goals between the chambers and this extends to the presidential primary debate as well. Bear in mind, it was the state Senate that added the presidential primary date change to the controversial omnibus elections bill at the last minute in 2013. With time running out in the session, the House agreed to that change to get the bill -- including the voter ID provision that is now being challenged in court -- passed.
This primary date -- tethered to the South Carolina primary -- is the Senate's baby. And it shows in the comments from proponents of the likely February primary date in the upper chamber. Sen. Bob Rucho (R-39th, Mecklenburg), who is a member of the Judiciary I Committee that handles elections matter in the state Senate had this to say (again, via Morrill),
“Why should we be losing delegates? We didn’t cut in line. We haven’t made our argument to the (RNC) yet. I don’t see why March 1 is a special date. We think the people of North Carolina should have a say in regards to the presidential contest.”That is not an atypical argument from any state legislator whether proposing to buck the rules or just move a primary to an earlier date. But this does give us some idea of what now faces the orderliness of the 2016 presidential primary calendar. A disagreement between the chambers makes passing legislation to move the North Carolina primary that much more difficult if not impossible. If that issue is not solved, then the beef will be between North and South Carolina which will pull the national parties -- more the RNC given the partisan make up of decision-makers in the Carolinas -- further into the discussion. This situation has already seen what one might call light and indirect pressure from the RNC. The remaining pressure may come in the form of the super penalty. being levied against North Carolina Republicans if the primary is not moved.
But all may work out. If South Carolina schedules its presidential primary for Tuesday, February 23, 2016, then the North Carolina primary would follow on March 1; making everyone happy. Getting there is not that simple, though. South Carolina typically holds a Saturday primary. South Carolina Republicans also like at least a week between it and the next southern state on the primary calendar. That combination eliminates the possibility of moving the South Carolina Republican primary to the Saturday, February 27.
On top of that, how is one to interpret the North Carolina law if the state parties in South Carolina hold primaries on different dates? Does North Carolina follow the earliest primary? The Republican primary? That is not clear and there is no guidance in the North Carolina law to account for an eventuality that occurs in South Carolina more often than not.
This one could get messy before it is all said and done. But North Carolina will undoubtedly lose over 80% of its delegates if it continues on the course it is on unless the stars align to force South Carolina into an uncommon Tuesday primary.
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Monday, February 23, 2015
North Carolina Republican Party Chair Calls for March 1 Presidential Primary
Last week FHQ posed several questions that would provide us with some answers about how serious legislators are in North Carolina to maintain a non-compliant presidential primary under Republican National Committee rules. None of that has really been addressed in the scant time since, but we can add to what is known about the state of a February North Carolina presidential primary. The North Carolina Republican Party chairman is against it.
Claude Pope, Jr., in an op-ed in the Charlotte Observer added one more voice -- and a bit of dual RNC and North Carolina Republican Party heft -- to the ongoing discussion over whether the Tar Heel state will become the latest rogue state to jump in the primary calendar line. This does not tell us much about the dialog in the North Carolina General Assembly, but can easily be viewed as some light early pressure to alter the date.
Pope makes the case for shifting back the North Carolina presidential primary to March 1 (also the targeted SEC primary date) thusly:
As FHQ has said, the super penalty appears to be doing its job. It has cleaned up the North Carolina issue yet, but the word is getting around.
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Claude Pope, Jr., in an op-ed in the Charlotte Observer added one more voice -- and a bit of dual RNC and North Carolina Republican Party heft -- to the ongoing discussion over whether the Tar Heel state will become the latest rogue state to jump in the primary calendar line. This does not tell us much about the dialog in the North Carolina General Assembly, but can easily be viewed as some light early pressure to alter the date.
Pope makes the case for shifting back the North Carolina presidential primary to March 1 (also the targeted SEC primary date) thusly:
"A newly enacted law sets our presidential primary on the “first Tuesday after the South Carolina primary.” That likely puts the primary date in February of 2016. The RNC’s rules provide a “carve-out” for February primaries for only four states – Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. Any state that violates this rule by conducting a February primary will forfeit all but 12 delegates. There are no exceptions, and North Carolina remains out of compliance with this rule. There is a simple fix – move our presidential primary to Tuesday, March 1.
"Our legislature had good intentions when it established a February primary date, assuming that the world would beat a path to our door – bringing national media exposure, money, and an economic boom-let to North Carolina. But the crowded field of presidential wannabes will not step foot in our state. They will not visit the fire stations or Rotary Clubs. They won’t ride in the parades, eat barbecue, kiss babies or spend their millions fighting over just 12 delegates – it simply isn’t worth the money.
"So, goodbye economic boom-let. Goodbye to relevance, and goodbye to any influence on the national level. Say hello to the mass of disenfranchised (and very upset) grassroots activists denied once again – by the law of unintended consequences – of finally having their say in who gets selected as our party’s nominee.That 12 delegates is the super penalty that is new in 2016. And what Pope describes is exactly how that penalty was intended to work: Shrink a state's delegation size to the point that it undermines candidates coming to the state to squabble over a sliver of a sliver of delegates.
"Or not."
As FHQ has said, the super penalty appears to be doing its job. It has cleaned up the North Carolina issue yet, but the word is getting around.
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Monday, February 2, 2015
North Carolina: 2016's Rogue State?
After ceremonially opening the 2015 session almost three weeks ago, the North Carolina General Assembly set about actually beginning its legislative work for the year last week. That ends up being consequential for the 2016 presidential primary calendar in that if primary season started today, North Carolina would be non-compliant with the delegate selection rules governing both the Democratic and Republican nominations processes next year.
To quickly recap, the General Assembly passed elections legislation during the summer session in 2013 that would, among other things, create a separate presidential primary in the Tar Heel state and tether it to the South Carolina presidential primary. That provision is triggered if the South Carolina primary is scheduled for a point on the calendar before March 15. And given that the Palmetto state is one of the four carve-out states with a February calendar position already reserved for it by the national parties, that would mean the North Carolina presidential primary would be drawn into February as well.
Complicating matters further, the North Carolina law calls for the presidential primary to be held the Tuesday after the South Carolina contest. With Saturday primaries the norm in South Carolina, that would position North Carolina just three days after South Carolina. It is not codified in law, but custom, not to mention practice, has shown that decision makers in South Carolina prefer a larger buffer between the South Carolina primary and the next earliest southern contest than three days. This practice mimics the law in New Hampshire requiring the Granite state presidential primary be seven days before the next earliest "similar contest". But again, the South Carolina practice is more custom or norm than law.
All that places North and South Carolina at something of an impasse. South Carolina is early but cannot shake North Carolina off by moving to an even earlier point on the calendar. If South Carolina moves, North Carolina moves with it.
The only thing in place to come to the aid of South Carolina is the enforcement of the national parties' delegate selection rules by the national parties themselves. By holding a primary before the first Tuesday in March, North Carolina would open itself up to incurring penalties from both parties. The DNC has a 50% penalty in place for timing/calendar violations, but provides the Democratic Rules and Bylaws Committee with the discretion to increase that penalty, as was the case with Florida and Michigan in 2008 (Rule 20.C.1.a). Additionally, the party also penalizes candidates who campaign in any rogue state in the lead up to the contest. Candidates would lose any and all pledged delegates allocated to them based on the results of the primary (Rule 20.C.1.b).
But the Democratic nomination and its attendant rules may not matter all that much if party support, polls and money raised (by super PACs) say anything about where former Secretary of State Clinton stands in the race. If the race is not all that competitive, then the rules are far less consequential.
Things are less clear on the Republican side which raises the specter of the delegate selection rules influencing the path in which the eventual nominee, if not frontrunner, takes to the nomination. The Democratic rules seem to back South Carolina up and so too do the Republican rules. For starters, South Carolina and the other three carve-out states are allowed by the RNC rules to hold contests as early as a month before the next earliest contest (Rule 16(c)(1)). That is an effective buffer for the four carve-out states in most cases. However, in an instance where the another state has its primary tethered to one of the carve-outs, it provides Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina with little cover. If North Carolina remains anchored to the South Carolina primary, then neither South Carolina nor the other carve-outs can effectively escape the North Carolina primary.
The RNC rules, however, protect the carve-out states and the ideal -- from the party's perspective -- calendar through other means. Like the Democrats, the Republican National Committee also penalizes states that conduct primaries or caucuses before the first Tuesday in March. Unlike the Democrats and unlike the RNC from 2012, the 2016 version sets a more severe timing penalty than simply reducing a state's delegation by half. That 50% penalty was the same one used and enforced in both 2008 and 2012 by the Republican National Committee. Yet, with Florida and Michigan breaking the calendar rules in both 2008 and 2012 and Arizona joining in 2012, the penalty was not effective at deterring all states from those sorts of violations.
The answer for the RNC for 2016 has come in the form of the newly installed super penalty. Instead of a flat 50% penalty, the RNC has opted to reduce violating states' delegations to either 9 or 12 delegates (depending on size) (Rule 17(a)). More than three-quarters of states and territories would face a penalty of 60% or more. The large a state's delegation, the larger the penalty would be.
For a state like North Carolina -- a state that increased the size of its Republican delegation by nearly 20 delegates for 20161 -- to be reduced to 12 delegates would translate to a more than 80% penalty. That is a significantly scaled back delegation that would reshape how candidates campaign in the state. And given that North Carolina allocates its delegates proportionally to candidates based on the statewide vote, such a small delegation may not change the way the candidates approach North Carolina as much as affect decisions over whether to bother with campaigning for a proportional share of 12 delegates.2
Folks in North Carolina are just waking up to the fact that the Tar Heel state will hold an early primary next year. Some are even speculating about what kind of player North Carolina will be in the presidential nomination process. On the county level, there is some concern emerging over the logistics of a February presidential primary.
But very few here in the Tar Heel state are talking about how North Carolina will be penalized by the national party rules if the presidential primary law remains unchanged and the impact that will have on the primary and campaigns' decisions to spend money in a multi-market state for just 12 delegates.
As the North Carolina General Assembly gets down to and continues its work, it is worth watching whether legislators address the primary issue. They are aware of the potential problem. North Carolina Republican National Committeeman, David Lewis, is in the North Carolina House of Representatives. Furthermore, the RNC has expressed confidence to FHQ that this matter would be resolved.
We shall see. The RNC has been good about bringing states in line during the 2016 cycle so far (see Arizona and Florida). But North Carolina could be a real threat to the primary calendar order in 2016. on the one hand, the carve-out states may scramble to schedule around North Carolina and run the risk of breaking the timing rules themselves. On the other hand, due to the tethering of the primary law, the four carve-out states cannot really steer clear of North Carolina. That may mean that the early states and the national parties will lean on the candidates to avoid the Tar Heel state. It could also mean that if the primary law cannot get changed in 2015 during a regular session that ends in July that the state parties will have to save the North Carolina delegate allocation process from itself by switching to later and compliant caucuses to avoid penalty.
That is a few speculative steps down the road though. North Carolina is in a provocative position on the 2016 primary calendar and step one to altering that runs through the state legislature.
Well, that and perhaps people here realizing it is a problem.
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1 By maintaining a Republican-controlled legislature and winning a second US Senate seat, the governor's mansion and voting for Romney in 2012, North Carolina gained bonus delegates over its Republican share in 2012 (see RNC Rule 14(a)(5-7)). North Carolina's percentage gain in share of delegates from 2012 to 2016 is just shy of 30%.
2 It would actually be a proportionate share of just nine delegates. The three automatic delegates -- the state party chair, the national committeeman and the national committeewoman -- have been unbound and thus their allocation is not dependent upon the results of the primary.
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To quickly recap, the General Assembly passed elections legislation during the summer session in 2013 that would, among other things, create a separate presidential primary in the Tar Heel state and tether it to the South Carolina presidential primary. That provision is triggered if the South Carolina primary is scheduled for a point on the calendar before March 15. And given that the Palmetto state is one of the four carve-out states with a February calendar position already reserved for it by the national parties, that would mean the North Carolina presidential primary would be drawn into February as well.
Complicating matters further, the North Carolina law calls for the presidential primary to be held the Tuesday after the South Carolina contest. With Saturday primaries the norm in South Carolina, that would position North Carolina just three days after South Carolina. It is not codified in law, but custom, not to mention practice, has shown that decision makers in South Carolina prefer a larger buffer between the South Carolina primary and the next earliest southern contest than three days. This practice mimics the law in New Hampshire requiring the Granite state presidential primary be seven days before the next earliest "similar contest". But again, the South Carolina practice is more custom or norm than law.
All that places North and South Carolina at something of an impasse. South Carolina is early but cannot shake North Carolina off by moving to an even earlier point on the calendar. If South Carolina moves, North Carolina moves with it.
The only thing in place to come to the aid of South Carolina is the enforcement of the national parties' delegate selection rules by the national parties themselves. By holding a primary before the first Tuesday in March, North Carolina would open itself up to incurring penalties from both parties. The DNC has a 50% penalty in place for timing/calendar violations, but provides the Democratic Rules and Bylaws Committee with the discretion to increase that penalty, as was the case with Florida and Michigan in 2008 (Rule 20.C.1.a). Additionally, the party also penalizes candidates who campaign in any rogue state in the lead up to the contest. Candidates would lose any and all pledged delegates allocated to them based on the results of the primary (Rule 20.C.1.b).
But the Democratic nomination and its attendant rules may not matter all that much if party support, polls and money raised (by super PACs) say anything about where former Secretary of State Clinton stands in the race. If the race is not all that competitive, then the rules are far less consequential.
Things are less clear on the Republican side which raises the specter of the delegate selection rules influencing the path in which the eventual nominee, if not frontrunner, takes to the nomination. The Democratic rules seem to back South Carolina up and so too do the Republican rules. For starters, South Carolina and the other three carve-out states are allowed by the RNC rules to hold contests as early as a month before the next earliest contest (Rule 16(c)(1)). That is an effective buffer for the four carve-out states in most cases. However, in an instance where the another state has its primary tethered to one of the carve-outs, it provides Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina with little cover. If North Carolina remains anchored to the South Carolina primary, then neither South Carolina nor the other carve-outs can effectively escape the North Carolina primary.
The RNC rules, however, protect the carve-out states and the ideal -- from the party's perspective -- calendar through other means. Like the Democrats, the Republican National Committee also penalizes states that conduct primaries or caucuses before the first Tuesday in March. Unlike the Democrats and unlike the RNC from 2012, the 2016 version sets a more severe timing penalty than simply reducing a state's delegation by half. That 50% penalty was the same one used and enforced in both 2008 and 2012 by the Republican National Committee. Yet, with Florida and Michigan breaking the calendar rules in both 2008 and 2012 and Arizona joining in 2012, the penalty was not effective at deterring all states from those sorts of violations.
The answer for the RNC for 2016 has come in the form of the newly installed super penalty. Instead of a flat 50% penalty, the RNC has opted to reduce violating states' delegations to either 9 or 12 delegates (depending on size) (Rule 17(a)). More than three-quarters of states and territories would face a penalty of 60% or more. The large a state's delegation, the larger the penalty would be.
For a state like North Carolina -- a state that increased the size of its Republican delegation by nearly 20 delegates for 20161 -- to be reduced to 12 delegates would translate to a more than 80% penalty. That is a significantly scaled back delegation that would reshape how candidates campaign in the state. And given that North Carolina allocates its delegates proportionally to candidates based on the statewide vote, such a small delegation may not change the way the candidates approach North Carolina as much as affect decisions over whether to bother with campaigning for a proportional share of 12 delegates.2
Folks in North Carolina are just waking up to the fact that the Tar Heel state will hold an early primary next year. Some are even speculating about what kind of player North Carolina will be in the presidential nomination process. On the county level, there is some concern emerging over the logistics of a February presidential primary.
But very few here in the Tar Heel state are talking about how North Carolina will be penalized by the national party rules if the presidential primary law remains unchanged and the impact that will have on the primary and campaigns' decisions to spend money in a multi-market state for just 12 delegates.
As the North Carolina General Assembly gets down to and continues its work, it is worth watching whether legislators address the primary issue. They are aware of the potential problem. North Carolina Republican National Committeeman, David Lewis, is in the North Carolina House of Representatives. Furthermore, the RNC has expressed confidence to FHQ that this matter would be resolved.
We shall see. The RNC has been good about bringing states in line during the 2016 cycle so far (see Arizona and Florida). But North Carolina could be a real threat to the primary calendar order in 2016. on the one hand, the carve-out states may scramble to schedule around North Carolina and run the risk of breaking the timing rules themselves. On the other hand, due to the tethering of the primary law, the four carve-out states cannot really steer clear of North Carolina. That may mean that the early states and the national parties will lean on the candidates to avoid the Tar Heel state. It could also mean that if the primary law cannot get changed in 2015 during a regular session that ends in July that the state parties will have to save the North Carolina delegate allocation process from itself by switching to later and compliant caucuses to avoid penalty.
That is a few speculative steps down the road though. North Carolina is in a provocative position on the 2016 primary calendar and step one to altering that runs through the state legislature.
Well, that and perhaps people here realizing it is a problem.
--
1 By maintaining a Republican-controlled legislature and winning a second US Senate seat, the governor's mansion and voting for Romney in 2012, North Carolina gained bonus delegates over its Republican share in 2012 (see RNC Rule 14(a)(5-7)). North Carolina's percentage gain in share of delegates from 2012 to 2016 is just shy of 30%.
2 It would actually be a proportionate share of just nine delegates. The three automatic delegates -- the state party chair, the national committeeman and the national committeewoman -- have been unbound and thus their allocation is not dependent upon the results of the primary.
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Thursday, January 29, 2015
The 2016 RNC Super Penalty
From the 2012 Rules of the Republican Party (the delegate selection rules that will govern the 2016 nomination process):
Now that the 2014 midterms have passed, the Republican National Committee has the data necessary to determine bonus delegates and thus the size of each state delegation.1 A firmer sense of the size of each delegation (via The Green Papers), in turn, provides the extent to which the super penalty would affect each state if a decision was made on the state level to break the rules prohibiting primaries or caucuses before the first Tuesday in March (March 1, 2016).2
Here is the percentage of the delegation lost if each state violated the super penalty (More below the figure):
With the exception of Delaware, Vermont and the four smallest territories, all states have a greater than 50% penalty for a delegate selection event scheduled before March 1. And even if, say, Delaware or Vermont decided to roll the dice and go rogue, the combination of nine delegates in Democratic Party-dominated states would likely not prove attractive to the candidates. Of course, that would assumes that those Democratic state governments would move the primaries into earlier and non-compliant calendar positions in the first place.
As the delegations grow in size, the effect of the penalty increases. States with delegations larger than 60 delegates would face an over 80% reduction in possibly being non-compliant. North Carolina, for example, moved up the list since our earliest look at the original super penalty. The state is now under unified Republican control and has gained bonuses as a result. But those in the Republican majorities on the state level also opted to separate the presidential primary from those for state and local offices and tether that presidential primary to the (likely February) primary in South Carolina. That means the Tar Heel state is currently staring down a substantial 83% reduction to their full 71 member delegation (tied for sixth largest delegation).
Past rogue states have already disarmed. Florida moved back. Arizona moved back. Michigan looks to be moving back. All moved after the original super penalty came out of the 2012 Republican National Convention in Tampa. Other states with February contests (New York) or ties to February contests (Colorado, Minnesota, Utah) have either moved back in the past (and are likely to do so again) or have options that allow them to avoid the problems attendant to non-compliant contests.
Upping the penalty seems to be having the desired effect from the RNC perspective.
...but it is not all the way there. All eyes on North Carolina.
--
1 Those bonuses -- determined by the guidelines in Rule 14(a)(5-7) -- are based on Republican electoral votes in the previous presidential election and Republicans' hold on US House and Senate positions, governors seats and state legislative control. Basically, the more Republican control there is in a state, the more bonus delegates are added to a state's at-large delegate pool.
2 This penalty does not apply to the carve-out states unless any of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and/or South Carolina holds a contest more than a month before the next earliest, non-carve-out state.
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Rule 17(a): If any state or state Republican Party violates Rule No. 16(c)(2), the number of delegates and the number of alternate delegates to the national convention from that state shall each be reduced by fifty percent (50%). Any sum presenting a fraction shall be decreased to the next whole number. No delegation shall be reduced to less than two (2) delegates and a corresponding number of alternate delegates. If any state or state Republican Party violates Rule No. 16(c)(1) of The Rules of the Republican Party the number of delegates to the national convention shall be reduced for those states with 30 or more total delegates to nine (9) plus the members of the Republican National Committee from that state, and for those sates with 29 or fewer total delegates to six (6) plus the members of the Republican National Committee from that state. The corresponding alternate delegates shall also be reduced accordingly.The second half of that rule (bolded by FHQ for emphasis) describes the so-called super penalty to be levied on states that violate the timing rules laid out in Rule 16(c)(1). The reality is that the penalty is there to prevent states from doing that; going rouge. Instead of the flat 50% delegation reduction used in 2012, the RNC will shrink rogue delegations to 12 total delegates (in states originally with 30 or more delegates) and to 9 total delegates (in states with 29 or fewer delegates) in 2016. The party has traded that flat rate of reduction to a set point of reduction that places an increasing penalty on states as their delegations grow in size.
Now that the 2014 midterms have passed, the Republican National Committee has the data necessary to determine bonus delegates and thus the size of each state delegation.1 A firmer sense of the size of each delegation (via The Green Papers), in turn, provides the extent to which the super penalty would affect each state if a decision was made on the state level to break the rules prohibiting primaries or caucuses before the first Tuesday in March (March 1, 2016).2
Here is the percentage of the delegation lost if each state violated the super penalty (More below the figure):
As the delegations grow in size, the effect of the penalty increases. States with delegations larger than 60 delegates would face an over 80% reduction in possibly being non-compliant. North Carolina, for example, moved up the list since our earliest look at the original super penalty. The state is now under unified Republican control and has gained bonuses as a result. But those in the Republican majorities on the state level also opted to separate the presidential primary from those for state and local offices and tether that presidential primary to the (likely February) primary in South Carolina. That means the Tar Heel state is currently staring down a substantial 83% reduction to their full 71 member delegation (tied for sixth largest delegation).
Past rogue states have already disarmed. Florida moved back. Arizona moved back. Michigan looks to be moving back. All moved after the original super penalty came out of the 2012 Republican National Convention in Tampa. Other states with February contests (New York) or ties to February contests (Colorado, Minnesota, Utah) have either moved back in the past (and are likely to do so again) or have options that allow them to avoid the problems attendant to non-compliant contests.
Upping the penalty seems to be having the desired effect from the RNC perspective.
...but it is not all the way there. All eyes on North Carolina.
--
1 Those bonuses -- determined by the guidelines in Rule 14(a)(5-7) -- are based on Republican electoral votes in the previous presidential election and Republicans' hold on US House and Senate positions, governors seats and state legislative control. Basically, the more Republican control there is in a state, the more bonus delegates are added to a state's at-large delegate pool.
2 This penalty does not apply to the carve-out states unless any of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and/or South Carolina holds a contest more than a month before the next earliest, non-carve-out state.
Recent Posts:
Back to the Future in Michigan: Another Attempt to Move Presidential Primary to March
Legislation Would Shift Illinois Presidential, Other Primaries from March to June
The End of the New Hampshire Primary? ...by Death Penalty?
Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.
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