How Big Was McCain's Bounce?

Hey, what's with the past tense? Well, a consensus seems to have emerged that McCain peaked -- at least in the context of the convention bounce -- some time last week. First the national polls began drifting back toward Obama and now we have begun to see hints of a similar pattern on the state level. But how and where did McCain bounce following the GOP convention in St. Paul? As has been our custom here at FHQ, we keep tabs on these shifts with periodic examinations of the changes to our weighted averages. Typically that has meant a monthly wrap up post, but the two conventions straddled the line between August and September, making that a difficult enterprise. The trends on the state level during the first two-thirds of August didn't really seem to favor either candidate despite talk of Obama's continued slide in the polls. Much of that could be attributed to the fact that many of the mountain west states were not polled during that time. In other words, we did not have a complete, state-by-state understanding of what was going on. Those gaps have been filled in the post-convention period.

Using the electoral map FHQ posted on the eve of the Democratic convention as our baseline, we can compare where the race was on August 24 to where it is now (...or was as of last Saturday*). I should note that we are talking about changes to our average and by its nature that means that the shifts are, on the whole, kind of small. To get a large shift, one of two things has to happen: 1) a number of polls indicates a distinct trend toward one candidate in a state or 2) one outlier poll completely changes the average in state that has been polled very sporadically. North Carolina is the best example of the former. The latter is well illustrated by a trio of states: Louisiana and West Virginia moving toward Obama while Vermont moved toward McCain. And the movement in these three states is due to a decrease in a substantial lead. Vermont's average for example shifted nearly 6.5 points based entirely upon a new poll (one of three total from the state) that had Obama ahead just 19 points instead of a number in the mid- to high twenties. Keep this in mind as you look at the movement across each state.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

And what we see is an awful lot of McCain yellow. The Arizona senator put some distance between himself and Barack Obama in a lot of traditionally Republican states, from the mountain west and into the South. In fairness though, McCain also made up ground in more competitive states like Ohio, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Oregon. He also increased his small advantage in Virginia. But Obama made strides in several states as well. Most notably, he gained ground in Indiana and Missouri and extended advantages in Pennsylvania, Iowa, and New Hampshire.

Pennsylvania being a gain state for Obama during the McCain bounce period may raise some eyebrows. Hasn't there been a decided down trend for the Illinois senator in the polls conducted in the Keystone state? Yes, but over the summer when Obama was enjoying a noticeable lengthening of his lead in Pennsylvania polling, our average nearly inched out of the toss up distinction, but never did. While other electoral college analyses moved Pennsylvania into safer categories for Obama, it never budged from the toss up distinction here. [Awfully braggy, aren't we, FHQ?] That has a lot to do with the fact that there was already a massive amount of polling done in Pennsylvania during primary season. That kept the average for the Keystone state rooted in the 3-5 point range for Obama for the most part. So, the average removes most of the volatility from poll to poll, keeping Pennsylvania anchored to a certain equilibrium, and in the process mutes some of the movement that otherwise looked to be heading in McCain's direction.

Let me close by focusing on the swing states. States like Alaska, Montana, North Carolina and North Dakota all moved off the board -- perhaps not permanently, but they are off for now -- during this post-convention period. Among the remaining eleven toss up states, though, McCain gained in seven (Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Michigan, Ohio, Virginia and Florida) while Obama inched up in four (Missouri, Indiana**, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire). I have asked the question before, but was the bounce in the national polls distributed evenly across all states? No. McCain shored up his base in some traditionally Republican states, but also seems to have edged out Obama among the battleground states as well. What does that mean, though? If this is, in fact, McCain's peak, then pulling to within eight electoral votes (273-265) is close but not quite good enough. However, if external factors intervene and one candidate has the momentum down the stretch, those toss ups may break in concert in one direction on November 4.

*The map charts the changes to FHQ's weighted averages in the states over that period (August 25 - September 12). Last Friday was the back end boundary because that was the cut off between a week of intense polling and a weekend where the releases dwindled. In the time since the week end we've seen a subtle shift back toward Obama. So to capture the full McCain bounce, it was incumbent upon FHQ to include only those polls that were conducted and released during the Arizona senator's peak period in the polls.

**Of course, Indiana's one poll during this period was released between the Democratic and Republican conventions. That poll favored McCain, but the margin was smaller in that Howey-Gage poll than the previous two polls conducted in the Hoosier state.


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The Pre-Convention Swoon Revisited

I don't necessarily want to reprise the post and the resulting discussion here, but I thought it was important to update Saturday's examination of the August poll movement to reflect all the data we have through August. I'm treating the Biden announcement as part of the convention. Therefore, any polls conducted prior to August 23 are included in the analysis below. In other words, all the polls covered in yesterday's electoral college projection post plus the Epic/MRA Michigan and Columbus Dispatch Ohio polls are rolled into this update. The Suffolk poll from Colorado is omitted because the survey period extended through yesterday. No, the Biden announcement was not part of the convention, but with its proximity to the Democractic convention, it will be difficult to parse out those differences in the polls, ex post facto. As such, we will treat the two -- in relation to state level polling -- as one in the same.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

The map above provides a much the same picture we saw just two days ago. In fact, none of the states where polling had been conducted prior to Saturday, saw any change to the intensity of their shifts thus far during August. However, both Utah and Wyoming were shaded in based on the large margins the Mason-Dixon polls in each gave John McCain. Neither really provides any substantial break from the conventional wisdom though. If anything the relative "tightness" of both to this point in the race was notable.

There are three other states that I kind of gave short shrift to the other day that I'd like to take the opportunity to address here in the absence of an in-depth analysis of the toss up states. Iowa, Minnesota and New Mexico are trending toward Johm McCain since the beginning of August. We've mentioned Minnesota's recent trends before, but they're worth noting again. The Land of 10,000 Lakes has seen a decided tightening in two of the three August polls. Both stand out as anomalous in the overall progression of polling in Minnesota. The slim two point lead in the Survey USA poll, as Scott mentioned, may have something to do with the way the firm is screening its sample. Indeed, the most recent Survey USA poll of Minnesota was in June during Obama's jump in the the polls in most states. While most polling firms showed an Obama lead in the mid- to upper teens, Survey USA had the race in a dead heat with Obama up by a scant one point margin. Minnesota and Survey USA may be like oil and water then. Still that only "explains away" one of those recent narrow leads for Obama in Minnesota. The other was the four point margin Rasmussen found in their latest sample of the North Star state. That one I won't dwell on, but I will say that when you take into account the high numbers of the "bounce" period -- and then peppered throughout the summer -- with the uncharacteristically low numbers we've seen recently, you get an average very similar to the one FHQ has overall now; one in the upper single digits.

In Iowa the story is a bit different. Other than a 17 point margin in a February Selzer poll, the range of polling has been between 2 and 10 points within no discernible pattern emerging. This one has settled in and remains fairly static within the area of a 6 to 7 point edge for Obama. New Mexico is essentially a fringe toss up state, propped up by two favorable Zogby Interactive polls. When those are removed New Mexico does move into the toss up region but it is on par with a state like Missouri on the flip side of the Electoral College Spectrum. It is possible that McCain moves in and picks off New Mexico, but at this point that is the equivalent to Obama pulling Missouri into his column. The probability of those two things happening simultaneously in November is quite small, but one candidate winning both would be a clear signal that the momentum down the stretch has swung decidedly in that candidate's direction.


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The Electoral Map (8/24/08)

Swoon? What Swoon? A Look at the Changes During Pre-Convention August

Obama-Biden

Swoon? What Swoon? A Look at the Changes During Pre-Convention August

Well, swoon may be a bit strong, but the perception is that the momentum is headed in McCain's direction. Is that the case, though? Sure it is. "They" told us so. However, just for fun, let's look at what has happened in August so far and see. The plus here is that this will give us a baseline in which to begin assessing VP selection and convention effects. Due to the compression of all four events (Democratic and Republican selections and conventions), it is difficult to definitively say, but we'll have these numbers as a jumping off point when that time comes, though.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

Thus far there has been polling conducted in 34 states during August, including 12 of FHQ's 14 toss up states. And that is where we'll keep the focus for this examination, on those toss up states. Coming into the month, McCain held advantages in 8 toss up states totaling 86 electoral votes and Obama was ahead in 6 states with 76 electoral votes. In that time only Ohio's 20 electoral votes shifted (from Obama to McCain), though -- spoiler alert! -- that will change tomorrow. Regardless, that was the state of play heading in to the heat of August.

Let's look at those states:
McCain -- AK, FL, IN, MO, MT, NC, ND, VA

Obama -- CO, MI, NV, NH, OH, PA

Immediately, we can take Montana and North Dakota out. Neither has been polled this month, but among the rest there was some movement of note. Among the six Obama states, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire and Ohio shifted away from the Illinois senator while Michigan and Pennsylvania moved toward him. As we've said over the last couple of weeks, Colorado, Nevada and Ohio are among the closest of states now. Having all three move away Obama is not a welcome sight for those within the campaign. While that is certainly negative, the movement among the McCain states is also noteworthy Of those six McCain states where surveys took place, only two moved in the Arizona senator's direction while the remaining four trended in Obama's direction. So while McCain is making strides in the closest of states, Obama is actually pulling some of those McCain toss ups further into play, going against the prevailing perception of the moment. Alaska made a strong move toward Obama and Florida, North Carolina and Virginia edged ever so slightly to the left.

Now, I should note that this data includes the new release of Zogby Interactive polling in a series of battleground states. I'll have more on this in tomorrow's electoral college post, but in this context I should make some comments about how those numbers affect our weighted averages in those ten states. Despite the sample being self-selected, most of these numbers jibe well with recent polling in those states.

Battleground States	Obama	McCain	Barr	Nader	Not Sure/Other
Colorado	44%	38%	8%	2%	8%
Florida	40%	43%	5%	1%	12%
Michigan	46%	37%	5%	1%	12%
Nevada	39%	38%	10%	3%	10%
New Hampshire	38%	42%	11%	1%	9%
New Mexico	46%	37%	5%	1%	11%
North Carolina	47%	39%	3%	2%	9%
Ohio	41%	36%	8%	1%	13%
Pennsylvania	46%	37%	5%	3%	8%
Virginia	43%	41%	5%	1%	10%

The exceptions are Colorado, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Ohio. And while the Ohio result shifts -- as you'll see tomorrow -- the Buckeye state back to Obama, it is still a very small change overall (and it only takes a little bit of one). Of the rest, only North Carolina changes the direction of the trend for August up to this point. And even then, the move toward McCain was minimal before the Zogby numbers were incorporated.

In the end, while it looks like an even distribution as far as the number of toss up states (and all states for that matter -- 19 - 14 in McCain's favor) heading in one candidate's direction or the other, McCain has to be given a slight edge because he has moved the three closest states (on the Electoral College Spectrum) in his direction. We should also note that Minnesota has crept toward McCain for the second consecutive month (or partial month in this case), yet remains on the upper end of Obama lean states. The situation is similar in Iowa as well. Though the Hawkeye state hasn't moved toward McCain in consecutive months, it has inched closer to McCain during August. It too remains solidly within the lean category for Obama, but if the current trend continues that could change.


Recent Posts:
Obama-Biden

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The Links (8/21/08): National Party Convention Bounces

Did Obama or McCain Win July?

***I said I'd have this up yesterday, but Blogger wasn't for some strange reason allowing the uploading of images during the latter half of the day and I didn't want to post this without the maps. It gave me a chance to incorporate the last of the July polls that were released yesterday anyway. There will likely be some other July stragglers that emerge well into August, but I'll add them to a revised edition in the post for August. The June revisions are at the conclusion of this post. Thanks, and sorry for the delay.

June, it seems, was an Obama month. The Illinois senator both wrapped up the nomination and showed improvement in the polls, with few exceptions, across the map. The dynamic changed in July, however. Whereas McCain only had a handful of states trend in his direction in June, July was with a yellow (pro-McCain) tint. 24 of the 39 states in which polling was conducted in July pushed FHQ's weighted averages toward the Arizona senator.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

By contrast Obama's June dominance gave way to a July map where his trendlines decreased in 21 of the 39 states where he gained a month earlier. Certainly the inclusion of the Zogby numbers in June inflates Obama's end of June averages, and in many cases, the Zogby polls were the last polls conducted in those states and were thus given the most weight. Any subsequent move toward McCain in July could then really have an effect on the the changes to the average, making what may have been a small change to McCain a big change. Even when the Zogby numbers are completely removed from the equation, McCain still countered Obama's June increases by pulling closer or extending his lead in 20 states (as opposed to 24). The omission of the Zogby data translated into trendlines reversing in Obama's direction in six states (AR, MI, MO, NM, OR and VA) and toward McCain in two others (NH and NJ). In other words, in nearly a quarter of the states where Zogby conducted an interactive poll in June (8 of 34), those polls affected the direction in which FHQ's weighted average was going.

The Illinois senator did manage to increase his standing in 15 states (or 19 if the Zogby data is excluded -- a number much closer to the number of states in which McCain gained in the absence of those polls) overall in July. Let's take a moment to look at the states deemed toss ups as of Sunday in FHQ's weighted average. Of those 13 states, 12 had at least one poll conducted in July. Of those twelve, half moved in Obama's direction (FL, MT, NV, NC, ND and PA) and two shifted toward McCain (CO and OH). The remaining four (MI, MO, NH and VA) were among the group of states that shifted directions based on whether the Zogby data was used. Michigan, Missouri and Virginia trended toward McCain in July with the Zogby data included, but reversed course in the absence of that data, shifting in Obama's direction. New Hampshire had the exact opposite effect: favoring Obama with the Zogby data, but away from him in their absence.

Now, the Zogby data is actually included in FHQ's average, so we'll discuss these toss ups in that light. [I have to add the distinction, though, in the interest of transparency.] As such, these swing states, where these trends are of the most consequence, are evenly distributed between the two candidates (6 to 6). However, three of Obama's seven gains and four of McCain's are states that are currently favoring the other candidate in the overall average, albeit slightly. Sure that's the nature of a toss up state, but still, that's an interesting bit of information to take away from this. Obama leads in Colorado, Michigan and Ohio, but during July those three states shifted toward McCain. Likewise, McCain holds an advantage over Obama in Florida, Montana, North Carolina and North Dakota, but is witnessing the Illinois senator gaining on him in those four states. If those seven states completed the switch to the other candidate Obama would net a gain of 2 electoral votes in the electoral college, stretching his advantage to 300-238 (McCain states: FL+MT+NC+ND=48 EVs, Obama states: CO+MI+OH=46 EVs).

State Shift Rankings (July)*
MT-3	WA-11	MO-11	OR-7	AR-6
SD-3	NV-15	MI-17	AK-3	ID-4
FL-27	GA-15	VA-13	NM-5	KS-6
ND-3	NJ-15	CO-9	AZ-10	ME-4
IA-7	NC-15	MN-10	LA-9	SC-8
WI-10	NH-4	OH-20	NE-5	IL-21
PA-21	TX-34	AL-9	CA-55	OK-7
KY-8	CT-7	NY-31	MS-6
* The states are ranked from biggest shift toward Obama to the biggest shift toward McCain. The darker the shade (of yellow or green) the bigger the shift during July.

Well, that's all well and good, but there is one additional caveat we need to make, isn't there? What about those Rasmussen "leaners"? Did using the "with leaners" or "without leaners" data make any difference in how the July map looks above? Below are the July polls from Rasmussen since the "with leaners" distinction was added to the firm's polling press releases (up to and including the polls that came out just yesterday -- AL, AZ and CT):

Rasmussen Polls Since w/Leaners Distinction was Added (7/9/08)*
State	Date	w/o Leaners	w/Leaners	Change	Undecideds Drop
Missouri	7/7	+5	+5	0	-10
New Jersey	7/7	+5	+3	+2	-4
Illinois	7/8	+13	+11	+2	-6**
North Dakota	7/8	0	+1	+1	-7**
Wisconsin	7/8	+13	+10	+3	-6
Louisiana	7/9	+20	+19	+1	-2
South Dakota	7/9	+4	+4	0	-4
Washington	7/9	+9	+8	+1	-6
Iowa	7/10	+10	+10	0	-9
Michigan	7/10	+8	+8	0	-5
Minnesota	7/10	+18	+17	+1	0
Kansas	7/14	+20	+23	+3	-9
North Carolina	7/15	+3	+3	0	-5
Oregon	7/15	+9	+9	0	-5
Nevada	7/16	+2	+2	0	-5
Virginia	7/16	0	+1	+1	-6
Alaska	7/17	+5	+5	0	-7
Arkansas	7/17	+10	+13	+3	-4
Georgia	7/17	+9	+11	+2	+1
Maine	7/17	+10	+8	+2	-2
Colorado	7/21	+7	+3	+4	-13
Ohio	7/21	+6	+10	+4	-7
Florida	7/22	+1	+2	+1	-7
Minnesota	7/22	+12	+13	+1	--***
New Hampshire	7/23	+6	+4	+2	-5
Pennsylvania	7/23	+5	+6	+1	-8
California	7/24	+12	+10	+2	-6
New Mexico	7/24	+5	+6	+1	-6
Nebraska	7/28	+18	+19	+1	-3
Kentucky	7/29	+10	+9	+1	-9
Mississippi	7/29	+11	+12	+1	-2
Montana	7/29	+1	0	+1	-3
Alaska	7/30	+5	+6	+1	--***
Arizona	7/30	+16	+19	+3	-6
Texas	7/30	+9	+8	+1	-9
Alabama	7/31	+18	+20	+2	-9
Connecticut	7/31	+15	+13	+2	-6
Avg. Change				+0.95	-5.7
*The "with leaners" distinction was added to reports that were released beginning on 7/9/08. The date on which these polls were conducted (The ones that these releases were based on) stretches back to 7/7/08. **Rasmussen has only conducted one poll in these states. Therefore, the difference was taken from between the with and without leaner numbers within the same poll in these cases. ***Previous poll had been taken after "with leaners" change had been made. We expect no out of the ordinary drop in the number of undecideds when comparing two "with leaners" interpretations.

The map above uses the "with leaners" data. If, however, we shift and inpute the "without leaners" data, the trends remain the same in 33 of the 35 states in which Rasmussen conducted July polls (post-July 7). Only Colorado and Texas would have taken different courses in the event the "leaners" were withheld. Colorado would have trended toward Obama while Texas would have favored McCain. In Texas that's probably not that big a deal. The Lone Star state is comfortably red currently. In Colorado, though, this is of note simply because the state is a toss up by FHQ's estimation. And while the trend would have changed, the overall average favors Obama regardless.

So who won July? Well, the map looks awfully yellow (pro-McCain), but the Arizona senator's gains are in states where he is already way out in front or too far behind to make much of a difference. The swing states are even allocated in terms of how many are trending toward each of the candidates. And when that sort of analysis is stretched to the lean states -- 11 states -- on both sides, McCain has the averages trending in his direction in only four (AK, NM, OR and SC). Of the 24 states where July polling was favorable to McCain, then, 14 of them were already solidly red. So, while the map is decidedly more yellow than it was a month ago, the Illinois senator is still moving in a positive direction in 12 of the 22 toss up or lean states where polling was done in July.

----
Appendix: June Revisions

One thing you'll notice immediately is that this map is even greener (pro-Obama) than the original map was. This revised version incorporates several polls that were released after I posted the first look at the changes during June. Granted, I posted that on July 1 and Rasmussen released a series of polls during the latter half of that holiday week. Additionally, all those Zogby polls are factored as well, making for an inclusion of around 40 new polls.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

Those Zogby polls were seen as favoring Obama, so they tend to have biased the map in the Illinois senator's direction. McCain, for example, had six states that trending toward him in June with the late releases excluded. However, when those are added in, the McCain total drops to four. Missouri, Oregon and South Carolina all flip to Obama, while the Zogby poll in Illinois pulled the average for the Land of Lincoln down. How is it then that the Zogby polls favor Obama, yet his home state is trending against him? Well, Illinois, prior to June, had had only one poll conducted in the state -- a February Survey USA poll that gave Obama a 29 point edge. In other words, Obama pretty much had nowhere to go but down there. And despite the shift, Obama still maintains a strong advantage over McCain in the state. With the inclusion of the additional (late-breaking) polls, Obama's bounce throughout June looks even bigger.


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Obama's Slide: Is Clinton Taking Advantage?

One of the biggest complaints about these maps that I've been producing for over a month now (see right side bar for the links) is that they pull in polling data from way back in February and give each of those polls (recent and long ago) equal weight. And that's a legitimate argument. Clinton supporters (and the detractors of my methodology) have chimed in in the comments sections of some of these posts to argue that Obama's good standing in the polls, post-Super Tuesday and pre-Jeremiah Wright, is propping up his averages, giving the appearance of competitiveness against McCain. My argument for including all the polls from Super Tuesday on has been that that was the point at which this became an even, two-person race for the Democratic nomination. The argument that we should expect some decay in a poll's value as it gets older, though, is still a valid one. I would counter that it is still necessary to include all the data from Super Tuesday forward, but to discount the early polls and weight the more recent ones.

Since there is a range in the number of polls per state (a low of one and a high of 15) there was some variation in the number of polls that were considered recent or dated. The following rules have been adopted to deal with these differences:

• If there has only been one poll conducted in a state, that is all the information on that state. Those poll numbers are left as they are, neither discounted nor weighted.
• If a state has had two or three polls since Super Tuesday the more recent one was given extra weight while the dated one (or two were) was discounted.
• Any state that had four polls over this period had the two most recent polls weighted while the earliest two polls were discounted.
• Finally, in all the states that had five or more polls the three most recent polls were given added significance while all the other polls were discounted to account for decay over time.

The big question: What effect does this have on the electoral college projection maps? If the recent negativity around Obama's campaign has any relevance, there should be a noticeable shift in his numbers against McCain in the hypothetical general election polls pitting the two against each other. In other words, adding in a decay function and giving more significance to the newer polls should be expected to hurt Obama. Relatedly though, is Clinton taking advantage of her opponent's slide? She has picked up some points on Obama both nationally and in the states yet to hold nominating contests, but is that translating to a possible battle against McCain? Is she able to make a better case that she would be more electable against McCain than would Obama?

To the maps!
In comparing the weighted Obama map to the unweighted one (see link under Recent Posts at the bottom), several things are clear. There is a lot less light blue and purple and much more brown. Many of the states that were leaning toward Obama or were toss ups favoring him moved into the McCain column. Whereas last week's maps showed an even split in the number of toss up states between Obama and McCain, this map has 11 of the 15 total toss ups favoring McCain. As a result, the race between the two in the electoral college has gone from a virtual tie to an 80 electoral vote advantage for McCain (309 to 229) with 174 toss up electoral votes. Among the states where the candidates were either strongly ahead or held a solid lead, Obama led 192 electoral votes to 172. McCain, then, took 137 or those 174 toss up electoral votes.
And Clinton? Her map and the resulting electoral college projections are nearly identical to the unweighted map. There are changes in the map on the margins, but the electoral vote tally is exactly the same (304 to 234 for McCain). That indicates that she has managed to maintain a certain standing against McCain, but that Obama's recent troubles have not changed the perceptions of those polled in regard to her standing against the Arizona senator.
And what of the difference each candidate makes in the various states? Here too, the maps are largely similar. The states shaded on each candidate's map are the same with the weighted data as they were before the transformations to the data were made. The difference is the magnitude of the differences. The Obama map is much lighter now. There are many more yellows and greens now than purples and blues. When the more recent polls are given greater value, the impact Obama had by being the head of the ticket against McCain is erode in relation to Clinton. In other words, the McCain margins between the two are narrower in many of the states. Obama's slide then has pulled him back down to earth; to the point that there really isn't a "dime's worth of difference" between Clinton and himself.
So, now I have appeased the Clinton supporters on their methodological concerns, but probably have both camps agitated with me over how the maps now look. I have argued before that the cloudiness over who the Democratic nominee will be has suppressed some of the support the party's nominee should get given the state of the typical general election indicators (presidential approval and economy). In that regard then, this is something of a worst-case scenario for the Democrats. It does underscore how the divisiveness of the post-Texas/Ohio race has hurt them and makes that much more understandable the calls from the party's elite to decide this thing earlier rather than later.

Related: Obama's Slide Revisited


Recent Posts:
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***Please see links to past maps in the right side bar***

The State of the Race: Counting Delegates in the North Carolina Primary

The State of the Race: Counting Delegates in the Indiana Primary