I left off the other day speculating that a post-convention, pre-general election primary was not the intent of legislators pushing an August primary in Arkansas. [Actually, in its amended form, SB 253 calls for a late July presidential preference primary, separate from the other primary contests to be conducted during the third week in August.] But why make this move? It isn't to influence the general election. The parties would likely move relatively quickly to quash such a move.
In reality, the move, like many in politics, is to counter the unintended consequences of a previous change. In November, Arkansas voters passed a constitutional amendment to allow the state legislature to meet annually instead of biennially. Traditionally, the Arkansas General Assembly has met in odd-numbered years only, handling the business of the state between January and May. There have been extra sessions and up until 2000, they were held during the same calendar year as the regular session (since 1987). Since 2000, though, four of the five general assemblies have held these extra sessions in even-numbered years. The amendment basically institutionalizes the extra session, splitting the duties of the legislature into a regular session in odd-numbered years and a session focused on appropriations only in even-numbered years.
What does that have to do with the primary election?
A good question. Whether State Sen. Bill Pritchard (also one of the sponsors of the original amendment) moves forward with proposing a bill to switch the session alignment (regular session in even-numbered years and budget session in odd-numbered years), the May primary for state legislative positions will occur within a couple of weeks of the end of the one of the legislative sessions. That leaves only a small window of time for incumbents to campaign for the election. On top of that, legislators have traditionally eschewed fundraising (due to a self-imposed rule) activities during sessions and for 30 days before and after them. That obviously encompasses the primaries in this case and poses a problem for state legislative incumbents. [Their challengers aren't faced with the same problem.]
The amendment opened up a can of worms in other words. SB 253 is seeking to address the problems state legislators are potentially going to face, but in tandem with the likely repeal of the February presidential primary, that means there are issues with delegate allocation in 2012. And this doesn't even take into account the issues (the strain of a non-stop blitz of work from the summer through the general election in November) local election board officials have with this proposal.
While a post-convention primary seems to have been averted with addition of an amendment for a late July primary for presidential preference, this contest would likely fall outside of the window established by the parties.
Recent Posts:
1980 Presidential Primary Calendar
Arkansas Senate Unanimously Passes Primary Bill
Arkansas Senate Slated to Vote on 2012 Presidential Primary Today
Thursday, February 5, 2009
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
1980 Presidential Primary Calendar
Iowa caucuses (both parties)
Tuesday, January 22:
Hawaii Republican caucuses
February
Friday, February 1:Maine Republican caucuses (through March 15)
Saturday, February 2:
Arkansas Republican caucuses
Monday, February 4:
Wyoming Republican caucuses (through March 5)
Sunday, February 10:
Maine Democratic caucuses
Tuesday, February 26:
Minnesota caucuses (both parties)
New Hampshire primary
March
March: Virginia Republican caucuses (through April)Tuesday, March 4:
Massachusetts primary
Vermont primary (beauty contest--no delegates at stake)
Saturday, March 8:
South Carolina Republican primary (party-run)
Tuesday, March 11:
Alabama primary
Alaska Democratic caucuses
Florida primary
Georgia primary
Hawaii Democratic caucuses
Oklahoma Democratic caucuses
Washington caucuses (both parties)
Wednesday, March 12:
Delaware Democratic caucuses
Saturday, March 15:
Mississippi Democratic caucuses
South Carolina Democratic caucuses
Wyoming Democratic caucuses
Tuesday, March 18:
Illinois primary
Friday, March 21:
North Dakota Republican caucuses
Saturday, March 22:
Virginia Democratic caucuses
Tuesday, March 25:
Connecticut primary
New York primary
April
Tuesday, April 1:Kansas primary
Wisconsin primary
Saturday, April 5:
Louisiana primary
Missouri Republican caucuses (through April 12)
Monday, April 7:
Oklahoma Republican caucuses
Saturday, April 12:
Arizona Democratic caucuses
Sunday, April 13:
Arizona Republican committee meeting (& caucuses)
Thursday, April 17:
Idaho Democratic caucuses
Saturday, April 19:
Alaska Republican convention (through April 20)
North Dakota Democratic caucuses
Tuesday, April 22:
Missouri Democratic caucuses
Pennsylvania primary
Vermont caucuses (both parties)
Saturday, April 26:
Michigan Democratic caucuses
Wednesday, April 30:
Delaware Republican committee meeting (& caucuses)
May
Saturday, May 3:Texas primary (Republicans)
Texas Democratic caucuses
Monday, May 5:
Colorado caucuses (both parties)
Tuesday, May 6:
Indiana primary
North Carolina primary
Tennessee primary
Tuesday, May 13:
Maryland primary
Nebraska primary
Monday, May 19:
Utah caucuses (both parties)
Tuesday, May 20:
Michigan primary (Republicans)
Oregon primary
Tuesday, May 27:
Arkansas primary (Democrats)
Idaho primary (Republicans)
Kentucky primary
Nevada primary
June
Tuesday, June 3:California primary
Mississippi Republican primary (party-run)
Montana primary (Democrats)
New Jersey primary
New Mexico primary
Ohio primary
Rhode Island primary
South Dakota primary
West Virginia primary
Wednesday, June 4:
Montana Republican caucuses (through June 12)
[Primaries in bold; Caucuses in italics]
States that are split vertically had different dates for different party contests. The shade to the left of that line corresponds with the month in which the Democratic contest took place and the right side represents the Republican contest.
[Source: Congressional Quarterly and news accounts from 1980. The latter was used to double-check the dates or discover missing ones.]
A few notes:
1) This is a classically backloaded calendar. There were 27 states that held primaries in which both parties participated. Of those 27, 15 were held on May 6 or later. If this is expanded to included states where just one party held a primary (either opting into the state-funded primary or holding a party-run contest), the total number of primary states rises to 34. Of those 34, 20 were on or after May 6.
2) The date on which the most contests were held was June 3. Nine states had contests on the first Tuesday in June. However, the second largest collection of nominating contests was during the second week in March. Altogether, seven states held primaries or caucuses on that date; the first early Super Tuesday. Much of this was due to the Carter administration-brokered movement in Alabama and Georgia. The move was made as an effort to give the president a counter to the victories Ted Kennedy could have gotten in New Hampshire and Massachusetts, two and one week earlier, respectively. Those moves were the first conscious frontloading moves by states.
3) The number of intra-state primary/caucus splits between the parties grew compared to 1976. Whereas Montana was the only state with one party opting into the state-funded primary while the other held a caucus in 1976, seven states had such party-based contest divisions in 1980.
Recent Posts:
Arkansas Senate Unanimously Passes Primary Bill
Arkansas Senate Slated to Vote on 2012 Presidential Primary Today
1976 Presidential Primary Calendar
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
Arkansas Senate Unanimously Passes Primary Bill
There's a different "first in the nation" in presidential primary politics: the first state in the nation to move its presidential primary. For the second cycle in a row, Arkansas looks as if it will claim that mantle. In 2005 it was all about being early, but four years later saving money (and face, perhaps) seems to have won out.
Today the Arkansas Senate followed the lead of its counterparts in the House and voted unanimously to repeal the presidential primary established in the nearly four year old law. The bill (HB 1021) now heads to the governor's desk, and all signs point toward him signing it into law. A collective vote of 131 - 0 and $3 million in cost savings will do that even when the legislature and governor's mansion are controlled by different parties.
Recent Posts:
Arkansas Senate Slated to Vote on 2012 Presidential Primary Today
1976 Presidential Primary Calendar
Chairman Steele and the 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar
Today the Arkansas Senate followed the lead of its counterparts in the House and voted unanimously to repeal the presidential primary established in the nearly four year old law. The bill (HB 1021) now heads to the governor's desk, and all signs point toward him signing it into law. A collective vote of 131 - 0 and $3 million in cost savings will do that even when the legislature and governor's mansion are controlled by different parties.
Recent Posts:
Arkansas Senate Slated to Vote on 2012 Presidential Primary Today
1976 Presidential Primary Calendar
Chairman Steele and the 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar
Arkansas Senate Slated to Vote on 2012 Presidential Primary Today
Nearly two weeks after the Arkansas House voted unanimously to repeal the state's February presidential primary, the Senate has a vote (on HB 1021) scheduled for this afternoon. The bill has passed the Senate's State Agencies and Governmental Affairs Committee with a "Do Pass" designation. Thus far, the only amendment tacked on to the legislation has been one to add a Senate co-sponsor to the bill. In other words, this one seems like a done deal. And as FHQ mentioned recently, Governor Bebee has indicated that he would sign the bill should it wind up on his desk.
The only complicating factor is a bill recently read and referred to committee in the Senate. In its original form, SB 253 would have repealed the February presidential primary -- making that election concurrent with the primaries for state and local offices -- and shifted everything back to the third week in August. [What if the a major party's convention is before that point?!?] In its amended form (the one currently in committee), the bill would hold the presidential primary three weeks prior to that third week in August. In 2008, Michigan and Florida both defied party rules to hold their primaries ahead of the front end of the window in which the parties allowed non-exempt states to go. However, it is rare that a state would challenge the back end of that window. In fact, since the Democrats established the "window rule" prior to the 1980 presidential campaign, no state has held a delegate selection event later than the second Tuesday in June. Sure, as we saw during 2008, many of the caucus states wrapped up their delegate selection with late June and early July state conventions, but the first step in that process -- the one that counts in terms of media coverage and thus momentum -- came much earlier.
To say this is unusual, then, isn't a stretch. It would be a first. Of course, the new governor of Illinois, Pat Quinn, has expressed an interest in a September primary for the 2010 election (H/t to Ballot Access News for that link.). It isn't clear whether that extends to 2012 and the presidential primary, but Illinois is one of those states which has traditionally held its presidential primary together with its primaries for state and local offices.
In years when there is a massive frontloading shift, we typically see some backtracking (ie: the 1988 to 1992 transition following the Southern Super Tuesday), but if Arkansas and Illinois (and this one has not made it as far as being proposed as legislation yet) were to follow through with these moves it would represent an entirely new path for presidential primary movement. The other caveat is that the parties have incentivized primary scheduling since 2000. States going later in the process get bonus delegates. How many bonus delegates would a state get for holding its primary in August or September.
But let's think about this for a moment. [Allow me to jump off the deep end here.] Holding such a late primary is basically giving up. Oh, let's put that more diplomatically. How about opting out of the primary system? But as a result, the voters of the state don't have a say in influencing the decision of either party's nominee. On top of that, these contests would come after at least one of the major parties' conventions.
What effect, then, would such a contest have on the general election? This is somewhat similar to the conversation we had going last summer about Guam and the general election straw poll the island wanted to hold in September before the election. Now, if your state is already holding a primary or caucus after the point at which the nomination has been unofficially claimed, what does it matter where you go. Why not attempt to have some real influence? In essence, a state in such a situation would miss influencing the first step of the process, but could have a significant impact on the second, post-winnowing step.
Granted, this scenario would mean less if a state had a closed primary. Democrats vote for the one Democrat on the ballot (the party's nominee) and Republicans vote for the one Republican on the ballot. There isn't much to that. It isn't telling us too much. However, in an open primary state, we'd have a better chance of adding up both ballots and extrapolating something from that. Think about having a primary in between the conventions and the debates. Candidates would show up to a state like that and the coverage would be off the charts whether it was a gimme state or a competitive one (more so in the case of the latter).
But this isn't even the intent in either Arkansas or Illinois. It is fun to think about, though.
Recent Posts:
1976 Presidential Primary Calendar
Chairman Steele and the 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar
Presidential Primary and Caucus Dates Over Time
The only complicating factor is a bill recently read and referred to committee in the Senate. In its original form, SB 253 would have repealed the February presidential primary -- making that election concurrent with the primaries for state and local offices -- and shifted everything back to the third week in August. [What if the a major party's convention is before that point?!?] In its amended form (the one currently in committee), the bill would hold the presidential primary three weeks prior to that third week in August. In 2008, Michigan and Florida both defied party rules to hold their primaries ahead of the front end of the window in which the parties allowed non-exempt states to go. However, it is rare that a state would challenge the back end of that window. In fact, since the Democrats established the "window rule" prior to the 1980 presidential campaign, no state has held a delegate selection event later than the second Tuesday in June. Sure, as we saw during 2008, many of the caucus states wrapped up their delegate selection with late June and early July state conventions, but the first step in that process -- the one that counts in terms of media coverage and thus momentum -- came much earlier.
To say this is unusual, then, isn't a stretch. It would be a first. Of course, the new governor of Illinois, Pat Quinn, has expressed an interest in a September primary for the 2010 election (H/t to Ballot Access News for that link.). It isn't clear whether that extends to 2012 and the presidential primary, but Illinois is one of those states which has traditionally held its presidential primary together with its primaries for state and local offices.
In years when there is a massive frontloading shift, we typically see some backtracking (ie: the 1988 to 1992 transition following the Southern Super Tuesday), but if Arkansas and Illinois (and this one has not made it as far as being proposed as legislation yet) were to follow through with these moves it would represent an entirely new path for presidential primary movement. The other caveat is that the parties have incentivized primary scheduling since 2000. States going later in the process get bonus delegates. How many bonus delegates would a state get for holding its primary in August or September.
But let's think about this for a moment. [Allow me to jump off the deep end here.] Holding such a late primary is basically giving up. Oh, let's put that more diplomatically. How about opting out of the primary system? But as a result, the voters of the state don't have a say in influencing the decision of either party's nominee. On top of that, these contests would come after at least one of the major parties' conventions.
What effect, then, would such a contest have on the general election? This is somewhat similar to the conversation we had going last summer about Guam and the general election straw poll the island wanted to hold in September before the election. Now, if your state is already holding a primary or caucus after the point at which the nomination has been unofficially claimed, what does it matter where you go. Why not attempt to have some real influence? In essence, a state in such a situation would miss influencing the first step of the process, but could have a significant impact on the second, post-winnowing step.
Granted, this scenario would mean less if a state had a closed primary. Democrats vote for the one Democrat on the ballot (the party's nominee) and Republicans vote for the one Republican on the ballot. There isn't much to that. It isn't telling us too much. However, in an open primary state, we'd have a better chance of adding up both ballots and extrapolating something from that. Think about having a primary in between the conventions and the debates. Candidates would show up to a state like that and the coverage would be off the charts whether it was a gimme state or a competitive one (more so in the case of the latter).
But this isn't even the intent in either Arkansas or Illinois. It is fun to think about, though.
Recent Posts:
1976 Presidential Primary Calendar
Chairman Steele and the 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar
Presidential Primary and Caucus Dates Over Time
1976 Presidential Primary Calendar
Monday, January 19:
Iowa caucuses (both parties)
Saturday, January 24:
Mississippi Democratic caucuses
Friday, January 27:
Hawaii Republican caucuses
Wednesday, February 4:
Wyoming Republican caucuses (all month through March 5)
Saturday, February 7:
Oklahoma Democratic caucuses
Tuesday, February 10:
Alaska Democratic caucuses
Tuesday, February 24:
Minnesota caucuses (both parties)
New Hampshire primary
Saturday, February 28:
South Carolina Democratic caucuses
Massachusetts primary
Vermont primary (beauty contest--no delegates at stake)
Washington caucuses (both parties)
Tuesday, March 9:
Hawaii Democratic caucuses
Florida primary
Friday, March 12:
South Carolina Republican caucuses (through March 13)
Sunday, March 14:
Wyoming Democratic caucuses
Tuesday, March 16:
Illinois primary
Friday, March 19:
Kansas Republican caucuses
Tuesday, March 23:
Connecticut Republican caucuses
North Carolina primary
Saturday, March 27:
Mississippi Republican caucuses
Monday, March 29:
Maine Republican caucuses
Kansas Democratic caucuses
Virginia Democratic caucuses
Monday, April 5:
Oklahoma Republican caucuses
Tuesday, April 6:
New York primary
Wisconsin primary
Monday, April 19:
Missouri Republican caucuses (through April 24)
Tuesday, April 20:
Missouri Democratic caucuses
Thursday, April 22:
New Mexico Democratic caucuses
Saturday, April 24:
Arizona Democratic caucuses/Republican convention
Vermont caucuses (both parties)
Sunday, April 25:
New Mexico Republican caucuses (through May 1)
Tuesday, April 27:
North Dakota Democratic caucuses
Pennsylvania primary
Louisiana Democratic caucuses
North Dakota Republican caucuses (through June 14)
Texas primary
Monday, May 3:
Colorado caucuses (both parties)
Tuesday, May 4:
Alabama primary
Georgia primary
Indiana primary
Saturday, May 8:
Louisiana Republican caucuses (through May 15)
Tuesday, May 11:
Connecticut Democratic caucuses
Nebraska primary
West Virginia primary
Friday, May 14:
Virginia Republican caucuses (through May 15)
Monday, May 17:
Utah caucuses (both parties)
Tuesday, May 18:
Maryland primary
Michigan primary
Saturday, May 22:
Alaska Republican caucuses
Tuesday, May 25:
Arkansas primary
Idaho primary
Kentucky primary
Nevada primary
Oregon primary
Tennessee primary
Montana primary (Democrats only, Republican beauty contest--no delegates at stake)
Rhode Island primary
South Dakota primary
Tuesday, June 8:
California primary
New Jersey primary
Ohio primary
Friday, June 11:
Delaware Democratic convention
Saturday, June 19:
Delaware Republican convention
Saturday, June 26:
Montana Republican convention
[Primaries in bold; Caucuses in italics]
[Source: Congressional Quarterly and news accounts from 1976. The latter was used to double-check the dates or discover missing ones.]
A few notes:
1) The number of shared dates between state contests was relatively few in 1976.
2) Relatedly, the closest thing to a Super Tuesday in 1976 was May 25. Six states held primaries on that date. Outside of that, there were several dates with three contests, but that was the most.
3) Barely half of the contests were primaries (28 if you count the Montana primary.). The remaining states held caucuses, and of those caucus states, only 5 held both their Democratic and Republican contests on the same date. That leaves 17 states with separate dates for their major party caucuses. That number climbs to 18 if you count the Montana primary/convention split between the Democrats and Republicans, respectively.
Recent Posts:
Chairman Steele and the 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar
Presidential Primary and Caucus Dates Over Time
Presidential Primary and Caucus Dates Over Time (Take 1)
Iowa caucuses (both parties)
Saturday, January 24:
Mississippi Democratic caucuses
Friday, January 27:
Hawaii Republican caucuses
February
February: Maine Democratic caucuses (all month long)Wednesday, February 4:
Wyoming Republican caucuses (all month through March 5)
Saturday, February 7:
Oklahoma Democratic caucuses
Tuesday, February 10:
Alaska Democratic caucuses
Tuesday, February 24:
Minnesota caucuses (both parties)
New Hampshire primary
Saturday, February 28:
South Carolina Democratic caucuses
March
Tuesday, March 2:Massachusetts primary
Vermont primary (beauty contest--no delegates at stake)
Washington caucuses (both parties)
Tuesday, March 9:
Hawaii Democratic caucuses
Florida primary
Friday, March 12:
South Carolina Republican caucuses (through March 13)
Sunday, March 14:
Wyoming Democratic caucuses
Tuesday, March 16:
Illinois primary
Friday, March 19:
Kansas Republican caucuses
Tuesday, March 23:
Connecticut Republican caucuses
North Carolina primary
Saturday, March 27:
Mississippi Republican caucuses
Monday, March 29:
Maine Republican caucuses
April
Saturday, April 3:Kansas Democratic caucuses
Virginia Democratic caucuses
Monday, April 5:
Oklahoma Republican caucuses
Tuesday, April 6:
New York primary
Wisconsin primary
Monday, April 19:
Missouri Republican caucuses (through April 24)
Tuesday, April 20:
Missouri Democratic caucuses
Thursday, April 22:
New Mexico Democratic caucuses
Saturday, April 24:
Arizona Democratic caucuses/Republican convention
Vermont caucuses (both parties)
Sunday, April 25:
New Mexico Republican caucuses (through May 1)
Tuesday, April 27:
North Dakota Democratic caucuses
Pennsylvania primary
May
Saturday, May 1:Louisiana Democratic caucuses
North Dakota Republican caucuses (through June 14)
Texas primary
Monday, May 3:
Colorado caucuses (both parties)
Tuesday, May 4:
Alabama primary
Georgia primary
Indiana primary
Saturday, May 8:
Louisiana Republican caucuses (through May 15)
Tuesday, May 11:
Connecticut Democratic caucuses
Nebraska primary
West Virginia primary
Friday, May 14:
Virginia Republican caucuses (through May 15)
Monday, May 17:
Utah caucuses (both parties)
Tuesday, May 18:
Maryland primary
Michigan primary
Saturday, May 22:
Alaska Republican caucuses
Tuesday, May 25:
Arkansas primary
Idaho primary
Kentucky primary
Nevada primary
Oregon primary
Tennessee primary
June
Tuesday, June 1:Montana primary (Democrats only, Republican beauty contest--no delegates at stake)
Rhode Island primary
South Dakota primary
Tuesday, June 8:
California primary
New Jersey primary
Ohio primary
Friday, June 11:
Delaware Democratic convention
Saturday, June 19:
Delaware Republican convention
Saturday, June 26:
Montana Republican convention
[Primaries in bold; Caucuses in italics]
[Source: Congressional Quarterly and news accounts from 1976. The latter was used to double-check the dates or discover missing ones.]
A few notes:
1) The number of shared dates between state contests was relatively few in 1976.
2) Relatedly, the closest thing to a Super Tuesday in 1976 was May 25. Six states held primaries on that date. Outside of that, there were several dates with three contests, but that was the most.
3) Barely half of the contests were primaries (28 if you count the Montana primary.). The remaining states held caucuses, and of those caucus states, only 5 held both their Democratic and Republican contests on the same date. That leaves 17 states with separate dates for their major party caucuses. That number climbs to 18 if you count the Montana primary/convention split between the Democrats and Republicans, respectively.
Recent Posts:
Chairman Steele and the 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar
Presidential Primary and Caucus Dates Over Time
Presidential Primary and Caucus Dates Over Time (Take 1)
Monday, February 2, 2009
Chairman Steele and the 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar
Marc Ambinder has within the last week written some interesting stuff about the choice in the RNC chair race and the ramifications that may have on the presidential primary calendar for 2012 (see here and here). Let me put it this way: Michael Steele's selection was not greeted happily by Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee or any other social conservative thinking about throwing their name in the ring for a run at the White House in 2012.
Why?
Well, as the National Review mentioned in December, the new chairman is charged with some new powers that haven't been granted RNC chairs in the past. These new powers originated with the decision at last September's convention in Minneapolis to allow for the rules governing the 2012 nomination process to be altered outside of the bounds of the convention. In the past the GOP has simply crafted the rules for four years down the road at the preceding convention. As a part of opening that process up, the chair of the national party was given the ability to name nearly 80% of the members of this commission, or drafting committee, as Ambinder calls it.
Does this mean that significant change is on the way?
Not necessarily, but with Steele in place as the new chair of the RNC, it is more likely that a significant re-write of the rules will be undertaken than if one of the more conservative candidates for the position had won enough votes last Friday.
Here's the thing, though: I don't see the nomination process being turned upside down. [FAMOUS LAST WORDS!] What I do see is an effort to make some more moderate Republican (perhaps even Democratic) states a part of the exempt group of states at the beginning of the process (See the Democratic Party in 2006 with the exemption of South Carolina and Nevada.). No Republican since 1980 has won the party's nomination without winning South Carolina's primary first. Water down the impact of the Palmetto state's contest on the process with some less conservative states and the dynamics of nominee selection could be changed dramatically.
That is a far easier way of creating a path to the nomination for a more moderate Republican. It doesn't involve a complete overhaul of the system -- needed though it may be in the eyes of some -- and totally circumvents the possibility that there are multiple states that cannot comply with Republican Party rules, thus having to face holding a less representative caucus instead of a primary.
Again, nothing is written in stone at this point. But Steele's position at the top of the Republican Party makes it more likely than any of the other five candidates, save former Michigan GOP chair, Saul Anuzis, that there will be some significant changes to the 2012 presidential primary calendar.
[NOTE(S): Speaking of primary calendars, I'll be posting the dates of the contests from 1976-2008 to go along with the maps I posted last week. When that process is complete, all those maps in the left sidebar will be "click to enlarge" ready. I realize that is one major drawback to their presence there now, but the slideshow is still basically at the top of the front page. Also, I'll have a bit more on reform as the week goes on. I'm busily plowing through the symposium on presidential primary reform in the latest issue of PS as well as the Dan Lowenstein chapter on the possibility of federal intervention. Good stuff and it is all comment-worthy. Finally, thanks for your patience. I was on the road last week at a job interview and was busy, busy, busy while I was there and exhausted when I got back. That's why posting has been light since I put the maps up last week. However, with state legislatures back in session and me putting the finishing touches on my dissertation, relevant posts should be increasing in number as we head into spring.]
Recent Posts:
Presidential Primary and Caucus Dates Over Time
Presidential Primary and Caucus Dates Over Time (Take 1)
New Jersey in 2012
Why?
Well, as the National Review mentioned in December, the new chairman is charged with some new powers that haven't been granted RNC chairs in the past. These new powers originated with the decision at last September's convention in Minneapolis to allow for the rules governing the 2012 nomination process to be altered outside of the bounds of the convention. In the past the GOP has simply crafted the rules for four years down the road at the preceding convention. As a part of opening that process up, the chair of the national party was given the ability to name nearly 80% of the members of this commission, or drafting committee, as Ambinder calls it.
Does this mean that significant change is on the way?
Not necessarily, but with Steele in place as the new chair of the RNC, it is more likely that a significant re-write of the rules will be undertaken than if one of the more conservative candidates for the position had won enough votes last Friday.
Here's the thing, though: I don't see the nomination process being turned upside down. [FAMOUS LAST WORDS!] What I do see is an effort to make some more moderate Republican (perhaps even Democratic) states a part of the exempt group of states at the beginning of the process (See the Democratic Party in 2006 with the exemption of South Carolina and Nevada.). No Republican since 1980 has won the party's nomination without winning South Carolina's primary first. Water down the impact of the Palmetto state's contest on the process with some less conservative states and the dynamics of nominee selection could be changed dramatically.
That is a far easier way of creating a path to the nomination for a more moderate Republican. It doesn't involve a complete overhaul of the system -- needed though it may be in the eyes of some -- and totally circumvents the possibility that there are multiple states that cannot comply with Republican Party rules, thus having to face holding a less representative caucus instead of a primary.
Again, nothing is written in stone at this point. But Steele's position at the top of the Republican Party makes it more likely than any of the other five candidates, save former Michigan GOP chair, Saul Anuzis, that there will be some significant changes to the 2012 presidential primary calendar.
[NOTE(S): Speaking of primary calendars, I'll be posting the dates of the contests from 1976-2008 to go along with the maps I posted last week. When that process is complete, all those maps in the left sidebar will be "click to enlarge" ready. I realize that is one major drawback to their presence there now, but the slideshow is still basically at the top of the front page. Also, I'll have a bit more on reform as the week goes on. I'm busily plowing through the symposium on presidential primary reform in the latest issue of PS as well as the Dan Lowenstein chapter on the possibility of federal intervention. Good stuff and it is all comment-worthy. Finally, thanks for your patience. I was on the road last week at a job interview and was busy, busy, busy while I was there and exhausted when I got back. That's why posting has been light since I put the maps up last week. However, with state legislatures back in session and me putting the finishing touches on my dissertation, relevant posts should be increasing in number as we head into spring.]
Recent Posts:
Presidential Primary and Caucus Dates Over Time
Presidential Primary and Caucus Dates Over Time (Take 1)
New Jersey in 2012
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Presidential Primary and Caucus Dates Over Time
[Editor's Note: After having gotten similar feedback on the maps from some folks here at UGA today, I thought I'd attempt to edit them. They were nice in isolation -- if you had the time to learn and discern the color coding -- but for showing a trend quickly, the original colors weren't cutting it. So I decided to take Matthew up on his suggestion and see if I could make a six shade gradient work. I think it does. You can definitely see a stark contrast between 1976 and 2008 if you toggle back and forth between the two at the end of the slideshow. Here, for the sake of a reminding everyone, are the rules for reading the maps.]
This weekend I put together a few maps for a job talk and class lecture I'm doing later this week on frontloading and thought I'd share them with everyone. The slideshow below has the states color-coded based on the month in which their delegate selection event occurred in the elections from 1976-2008. You'll see that some states are divided with two separate colors in some years. That reflects the different dates on which Democratic and Republican states held (in most cases) their respective caucuses. Though there are states that had primaries for one party and caucuses for the other. In those instances where the state is divided, the left half color corresponds to the Democratic contest date and the right color, the Republicans'.
Recent Posts:
Presidential Primary and Caucus Dates Over Time (Take 1)
New Jersey in 2012
Out of Committee and On to the Floor: Back to May for the Arkansas Presidential Primary
This weekend I put together a few maps for a job talk and class lecture I'm doing later this week on frontloading and thought I'd share them with everyone. The slideshow below has the states color-coded based on the month in which their delegate selection event occurred in the elections from 1976-2008. You'll see that some states are divided with two separate colors in some years. That reflects the different dates on which Democratic and Republican states held (in most cases) their respective caucuses. Though there are states that had primaries for one party and caucuses for the other. In those instances where the state is divided, the left half color corresponds to the Democratic contest date and the right color, the Republicans'.
Recent Posts:
Presidential Primary and Caucus Dates Over Time (Take 1)
New Jersey in 2012
Out of Committee and On to the Floor: Back to May for the Arkansas Presidential Primary
Monday, January 26, 2009
Presidential Primary and Caucus Dates Over Time (Take 1)
NOTE: For an updated version (with better color-coding) please see here and for the full calendars in each of these election years, please see the left sidebar.
This weekend I put together a few maps for a job talk and class lecture I'm doing later this week on frontloading and thought I'd share them with everyone. The slideshow below has the states color-coded based on the month in which their delegate selection event occurred in the elections from 1976-2008. You'll see that some states are divided with two separate colors in some years. That reflects the different dates on which Democratic and Republican states held (in most cases) their respective caucuses. Though there are states that had primaries for one party and caucuses for the other. In those instances where the state is divided, the left half color corresponds to the Democratic contest date and the right color, the Republicans'.
When I get a chance, I'll post these in one of the sidebars so that they'll constantly be there for easy access.
Recent Posts:
New Jersey in 2012
Out of Committee and On to the Floor: Back to May for the Arkansas Presidential Primary
Illinois in 2012
This weekend I put together a few maps for a job talk and class lecture I'm doing later this week on frontloading and thought I'd share them with everyone. The slideshow below has the states color-coded based on the month in which their delegate selection event occurred in the elections from 1976-2008. You'll see that some states are divided with two separate colors in some years. That reflects the different dates on which Democratic and Republican states held (in most cases) their respective caucuses. Though there are states that had primaries for one party and caucuses for the other. In those instances where the state is divided, the left half color corresponds to the Democratic contest date and the right color, the Republicans'.
When I get a chance, I'll post these in one of the sidebars so that they'll constantly be there for easy access.
Recent Posts:
New Jersey in 2012
Out of Committee and On to the Floor: Back to May for the Arkansas Presidential Primary
Illinois in 2012
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
New Jersey in 2012
You have now entered the speculative zone. Oklahoma and Illinois were one thing, but this is quite another. FHQ finds it helpful to do exercises in hypotheticals from time to time, but this one may be a stretch. Yet, when I came across this discussion about New Jersey's 2009 governor's race, it triggered a memory of a recent addition to the law governing the Garden state's presidential primary.Now bear with me here...
The bill (A3186) keeps the date of the now separate presidential primary on the same first-Tuesday-in-February date, but now allows for the secretary of state to shift the date should it coincide with a "period of religious observance" that imposes "a substantial burden on an individual's ability to vote."
Now, I'm not sure about what religious observances may pop up during the first week in Tuesday in February 2012. And I certainly don't see the state of New Jersey being motivated to shift its presidential primary again, especially since just the Republican nomination will be at stake. But what if New Jersey Republicans were able to unseat Democratic Governor Jon Corzine? It isn't likely to happen if you listen to the folks over at Daily Kos, but the catch here is that the office of secretary of state in New Jersey is not an elective office. It is a position appointed by the governor. If that governor was a Republican would the administration be motivated to move the primary forward -- likely in violation of either parties' rules -- thus challenging the language of the new law?
Yeah, I didn't think it was likely either. New Jersey would be a nice medium to large chunk of delegates for one well-positioned candidate after New Hampshire, though. It is a winner-take-all primary after all.
We'll see. My bet is that Arkansas moves back to May over New Jersey ultimately pulling the trigger on this scheme.
Recent Posts:
Out of Committee and On to the Floor: Back to May for the Arkansas Presidential Primary
Illinois in 2012
Inauguration Day
Out of Committee and On to the Floor: Back to May for the Arkansas Presidential Primary
The bill to move the Arkansas presidential primary back to May in 2012 has passed the House State Agencies and Governmental Affairs Committee and now moves to the floor for a vote. HB 1021 would move the presidential primary back to coincide with the primaries for state and local offices usually held in late May. After getting lost in the shuffle in 2008, Arkansas is making the move largely as a cost-saving measure. The bill has had bi-partisan support and Democratic Governor Mike Bebee has already signaled that he would sign the bill into law should it reach his desk.
Quick four years ago, Arkansas once again will be among the first to reposition with the 2012 presidential primary season in mind.
Recent Posts:
Illinois in 2012
Inauguration Day
Oklahoma in 2012
Quick four years ago, Arkansas once again will be among the first to reposition with the 2012 presidential primary season in mind.
Recent Posts:
Illinois in 2012
Inauguration Day
Oklahoma in 2012
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