Much Ado About Nothing in Texas

All that talk about a public hearing and all the Texas House Elections Committee did was punt the decision on the bill (HB 246) to a later date.

Here is the reading from the April 27 meeting's minutes:

HB 246

The chair laid out HB 246.

The chair recognized Representative Alonzo to explain the measure.

Testimony taken/registration recorded. (See attached witness list.)

The chair recognized Representative Alonzo to close on the measure.

The bill was left pending without objection.

Now, I still need to go back and look at the video of this on the Texas legislature's web site, but I can say this: The witness list is pretty telling. Texas Secretary of State Elizabeth Winn weighed in on the bill, and then a host of folks came forward (vocally or not) as against the measure.

How many were for it? Zero, nada, zilch. That says something. It may be that Republicans in the state ultimately come to the table and help push this frontloading bill (moving the presidential primary from the first week in March to the first week in February 2012) through, but there won't be any happy campers on the local level.

FHQ will continue to track the progress and I should be able to augment this picture a bit soon with a bit of an addition to this and other legislative movement on the frontloading, er... front.


Recent Posts:
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Open Thread: Home Renovation Edition

Forget You Saw That...

Back in Business

FHQ is now back. I apologize for the absence, but with the new job, it was unavoidable. I'll have something new up shortly.

Ooh, May is off to a slooooooow start.


Recent Posts:
Open Thread: Home Renovation Edition

Forget You Saw That...

Are Clinton and Obama Still Fighting? The Texas Primary-Caucus is Back

Open Thread: Home Renovation Edition

You've likely noticed that it has been quiet around here the last few days. Not only is it the end of the semester, but we're in the midst of a whirlwind renovation to get the house ready to go on the market. Hopefully things will be somewhat back to normal tomorrow or Thursday.

Having said that, I thought I'd open up the comments for talk on Souter's replacement, Rubio running for Senate in Florida, and if you want to, you can continue talking about the New Hampshire situation.


Recent Posts:
Forget You Saw That...

Are Clinton and Obama Still Fighting? The Texas Primary-Caucus is Back

Democracy for the People

Forget You Saw That...

If you saw the post on the situation in New Hampshire, disregard the information. According to the New Hampshire Democratic Party Chair, Ray Buckley, the news was not true about the gay marriage vote and the Granite state's primary.

EDIT: I should probably add -- in the interest of not totally confusing everyone who didn't catch the original post -- that the issue in question was the DNC strong-arming hesitant Democratic state legislators into voting to pass the gay marriage bill wending its way through the General Court by threatening New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary status.


Recent Posts:
Are Clinton and Obama Still Fighting? The Texas Primary-Caucus is Back

Democracy for the People

More Party Switchers?

Are Clinton and Obama Still Fighting? The Texas Primary-Caucus is Back

Are big changes coming to the Democratic presidential nomination structure in the state that defines big?

Well, it depends on who you ask. On the one hand:

"There won't be anything dramatic," Sen. Royce West, D-Dallas (head of the Texas Democratic Party's committee looking into the issue), predicted.

On the other:

"I'm a taxpayer; I am paying for that primary," (committee member and Clinton-supporter, Linda) Burgess said. "I don't care if it's the Republican Party, Democratic Party or Polka-Dotted Party. I don't want any party to change the outcome of any election I'm paying for."

The argument here is over the controversial Texas Democratic primary-caucus system, or at least the caucus end of the structure. Advocates (and they seem to be Obama supporters) contend that the party building exercise that is the caucus is a worthwhile endeavor, but those with a negative view of the system (and they appear to be Clinton supporters) point toward the (un)representativeness of the caucus and the disproportionate impact in the delegate allocation.

Now, as I pointed out after last November's elections, the Texas Democratic Party was holding public hearings on the issue and the committee dealing with those is due to issue a report to the party's Executive Committee this summer. At that point a change may be made.

If I'm guessing, though, I'm going to have to side with Sen. West on this one. I just don't expect any fundamental changes. The longer caucus proponents -- and according to the Austin American-Statesman article there are plenty within the state party's power structure -- drag this thing out, the less salient an issue it becomes. Does anyone remember the tumult after Jesse Jackson beat 1988 Texas primary winner, Michael Dukakis, in the caucuses? The answer is no. Sure, that's because Jackson's win in the caucuses didn't overturn Dukakis' primary victory, but that actually strengthens the caucus proponents' argument here. That means that a close, almost tied nomination race is a requirement for this discrepancy to even be consequential. And we just don't see that happen that often.

The Texas Democratic Party is listening, but I don't think they'll do anything about the caucus. Let's be honest: Despite the talk about grassroots party building, the caucus was put in place -- much like the superdelegates at the national level -- to give the party a larger say in who got how many of the state's delegates. In the event, then, that there is a division between who the party wants as nominee and who the rank and file primary voters want, the party has a bit of an insurance policy. The party won't always win out, but if it is close enough the party will get its way.

All this draws on and expands upon a study I've cited in this space before. Scott Meinke, Jeffrey Staton and Steven Wuhs (gated) examined the effect the ideological convergence between state parties and potential primary/caucus voters has on how open a state's delegate selection event is. The idea, then is that the less those two groups converge ideologically, the less open the process will be (read: caucuses) and the more ideological overlap there is between citizens and state parties, the more open the process will be. Now, they were talking ideological convergence and what I'm discussing here is more candidate preference convergence. Yeah, those are pretty much the same thing, but in the case of Obama-Clinton, the underlying issue wasn't necessarily ideologically-based. That was a candidate-based division -- two candidates very similar ideologically.

So, will Texas Democrats make a change? I don't think so. If the party wants a caucus, the party will have a caucus. And it won't be a big deal in 2012 because Obama is likely going to be the only candidate on the ballot. In (uh, 1988, 2008), oh say, 2028 it might be a problem, but this Obama-Clinton thing will be ancient history by then.


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Democracy for the People

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Open Thread: Specter Switch

Democracy for the People

...or FHQ readers at least.

Recently I changed up the "Links" section here by replacing the default setting (Well, default when I started this endeavor a couple of years ago.) with a widget that cues up the most recent entry at the sites I read the most. I also moved that section from the right sidebar to the left one under the frontloading trend maps. Here's a screenshot:

[Click to Enlarge]

Anyway, it strikes me as somewhat unfair that I get to pick what's in that section. So I thought I'd open the comments section up to suggestions for additions to that area. I mean, we do have a community of readers here and it is my preference that everyone have a stake in FHQ -- a minority stake, but a stake nonetheless. I put it to you, then, FHQ readers both vocal and silent: Are there sites you'd like to see included in that space and, if so, what are they?

A couple of notes:
1) The sites have to be blog-like in that the widget requires an RSS feed. Some standard sites won't work. For example, CQ is frustratingly out of the loop for whatever reason. UPDATE: Well, maybe that wasn't a good example. Maybe, just maybe I wasn't trying hard enough to add CQ. Ha! [Hat tip to Matt from DemConWatch for the proper link.] CQ's now up.
2) There are only so many sites we can include before it gets overwhelmingly cluttered. That doesn't prevent you from suggesting something, but I feel the need to offer that disclaimer.

Anyway, have at it. The suggestion box is now open.


Recent Posts:
More Party Switchers?

Open Thread: Specter Switch

Indiana Sec. of State on 2012 Presidential Primary

More Party Switchers?

Jack asks:

"How does this (Specter) impact the chances of more switches? I've seen speculation about Snowe. Your take?

"I don't really think the idea of Snowe switching parties makes much sense. Specter switched because of electoral pressure to do so. Jeffords switched at a time when control of the Senate was in the balance. Neither of these incentives are available to Snowe, Collins, Inhofe or whoever would consider switching."

There are two lines of thought on either of the Maine senators switching:

1) You're right that there is definitely an electoral connection (sorry David Mayhew) here. Michael Steele can talk about targeting Collins or Snowe because of their votes, but how is he going to strengthen the bench in Maine and cultivate candidates to the right of either one of them that could win? That pressure existed with Specter, but not with Collins and Snowe. But...

2) It could be that one or both of them just simply gets sick being a part of a party that is philosophically different from themselves. Specter spoke along those lines, but I don't know that anyone took him too terribly seriously there. His was a move of electoral survival. As I said above, that doesn't really exist in Snowe's or Collins' case.

However, the Democrats are pushing the agenda now and the matters that they bring up for a vote could continually put Snowe and Collins in the uncomfortable position of having to decide between their convictions and their party. The more that happens, the more likely, I'd say, they are to reconsider their positions within the Republican Caucus.

The flip side is the extent to which they are on board with what the Obama administration is pushing. If either was totally in line with Obama, one or both of them would likely already have switched. But again, we're talking about the extent to which they are with Obama. It isn't one hundred percent and it isn't zero either. [I may have to look at some of their votes for a better idea, but that's a job for another day -- or another blogger. Ha!]

Ultimately, I think they'll stick it out (famous last words), but there's no doubt in my mind that they are being asked. The Democrats in the Senate would be foolish not to.

It never hurts to ask. The worst they can say is, "no," or maybe, "NO!" after the one hundredth time or so.


Recent Posts:
Open Thread: Specter Switch

Indiana Sec. of State on 2012 Presidential Primary

There Are Deciders and Then There Are...

Open Thread: Specter Switch

Well, Pennsylvania got slightly bluer today with Arlen Specter's surprising, yet not-so-surprising shift into the Democratic Caucus in the Senate. The way things were going, this was likely the only choice Specter had.

...if he was/is still interested in working in the Senate. Twenty-one points down is twenty-one points down. That's a tough row to hoe when you are talking about an incumbent and a primary polling deficit. Not that Chris Dodd is in an ideal position, but at least his polling deficit is against a potential general election opponent in 2010; not quite as threatening. Specter, I'm sure, saw the writing on the wall.


Thoughts?
Here's one: Seth Masket over at Enik Rising sums the move up nicely.

Here's another from Josh Marshall (via Seth): I completely forgot that Pennsylvania is a closed primary state. That certainly would have made Specter's prospects of re-election that much dimmer if he would have continued on that route.

Yet another: Michael Steele on Specter's departure. (h/t GOP12 for the link)

While we're on Specter, let me add a funny anecdote to this discussion:
A couple of summers ago I took a grading gig within the department to help out one of our faculty members. It was an intro to American government class made up completely of incoming freshmen. So this was their first college experience. Following a week of lectures on the branches of government and their attendant checks and balances we had an exam. One of the questions asked was about the checks between Congress and the Supreme Court. We had that week discussed Senate confirmation of judicial appointments and nestled in that discussion was a side note about Specter's role in the Clarence Thomas hearings -- specifically his questioning of Anita Hill and the backlash that created. Now, you have the proper context, but it took me a while in the midst of reading all these exams to figure out who one the students was referring to when mentioning Karl Inspector.

Karl Inspector?

Then the light bulb came on: Oh, Arl-en Spector.


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There Are Deciders and Then There Are...

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Indiana Sec. of State on 2012 Presidential Primary

Recently, Indiana Secretary of State, Todd Rokita, sat down with Howey Politics Indiana to discuss a wide range of things. Given that the secretary of state's office handles election administration in the Hoosier state, the talk ultimately turned to the 2012 presidential primary calendar.

Here are the relevant points from the discussion (commentary appended):

HPI: Have you had conversations with party chairs Dan Parker (D) and Murray Clark (R) about when Indiana will have its 2012 presidential primary?

Rokita: I have and we hope to be able to study it this summer. Again, I am disappointed that the Senate resolution that crossed over to the House to do just that did not get heard, as far as I’ve seen yet. That’s OK, the Senate can do its own. I hope the Democrats come to the table. It was their party that benefited so much from having a contested primary this last year. Indiana mattered. That’s a great thing. I want it to be that way every presidential election.

Let me clarify a few things about this exchange and augment them to some degree. First, SCR 28, the Senate resolution setting up a committee to study the wisdom behind moving Indiana's presidential primary in future cycles, passed the Senate and moved over to the House where it has stalled. Rokita says as much, but adds that it is the Democratic Party that is holding the measure up. And that is certainly in line with FHQ's thinking concerning 2012. Republicans are going to be more active in presidential primary frontloading than are Democrats simply because theirs is the party with the competitive nomination race. It is completely understandable, then, that the Republican-controlled Senate was able to move the resolution while the Democratic-controlled House basically refused to bring it out of commitee. Also, the clock is running out in the Indiana General Assembly. The legislature is slated to adjourn tomorrow (April 29), which means that it is all but assured that the Senate will be the only body in Indiana's state government studying a frontloading move for the Hoosier state's presidential primary.

[I've already weighed in on Indiana potentially moving. See here, here and here. And I still need to model that 2000 primary season. That sounds like a summer project.]

HPI: Do you think this is going to be a state-by-state thing or is there a chance of regional presidential primaries?

Rokita: Since I am president of the national association (of Secretary of States) we’ve studied the regional primary and that’s the one you’ll see me continue to advocate as we rotate around the country. I think that has some very good implications to it. However, what I realized after going through a presidential election cycle with it, the parties really are the backstop. If the parties make some reform, like rotating regional primaries, they will make it happen. The Republicans are moving in that direction. They used to have very strict rules at a party convention. Well, the Democratic Party was able to have a Rules Committee on the fly so they can adjust in between their national conventions. You saw the Republicans move in that direction after Minnesota this past year. I’m hopeful, but it’s quite clear the parties will have to both agree on a plan if we’re going to have any reform in the nation.

Ah, reform. Given his position as secretary of state, it is no surprise that Sec. Rokita is pushing the NASS Rotating Regional Primary Plan. That certainly isn't as interesting as his last statement. Let's look at that again: "I’m hopeful, but it’s quite clear the parties will have to both agree on a plan if we’re going to have any reform in the nation." As I've tried to make quite clear in this space, if reform is going to happen, it will have to be something that both parties coordinate. If only one party moves, the door will be fully opened to an exponential increase in the incidence of Florida and Michigan-type moves of defiance in the future. So, it is good to see that at least one person in a position of power has come to this realization. The extent to which that thinking spreads will dicatate whether we actually see primary reform or not.


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There Are Deciders and Then There Are...

Not Deciders.

[Decider]

[Not Decider]

Is it me or is the inevitability of Charlie Crist's "I'm running for Senate" announcement not similar to the drawn out process that was Fred Thompson's presidential announcement in 2008? For the record, I think Crist will fare much better than the former Tennessee senator turned actor turned presidential aspirant turned actor.

NOTE: It is also about time we put to rest the idea that the pictured hand gesture above is a prerequisite of being a decider.


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"Real" Republicans and the Implications for the 2012 GOP Nomination

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More Texas-less Fun