Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Alaska GOP to Hold March 6 District Conventions

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The Alaska Republican Party is set to begin its 2012 presidential delegate selection process with district conventions on Super Tuesday, March 6.1 FHQ just got off the phone with Alaska Republican Party Chairman Randy Ruedrich, and he confirmed to us that the party has planned on March 6 district conventions ending with an April 26-28 state convention since it adopted the necessary rules back on February 5, 2011.

Notes:
The Alaska Republicans, then, join western caucuses in Idaho, North Dakota and Wyoming along with a host of primary states on Super Tuesday.

Mitt Romney won the district conventions in 2008.

--
1 This date was earlier confirmed by The Green Papers. A hat tip to Tony Roza for passing it along.



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Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp Set to Schedule Presidential Primary

FHQ just had Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp's office send along this press release:

Secretary of State Kemp to Announce Georgia’s Presidential Preference Primary Date  
Atlanta – Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp will announce the state’s presidential preference primary date on Thursday, September 29, 2011 at 11 a.m. in the Georgia Capitol, South Wing.   
What: Secretary of State Brian Kemp to announce the state’s presidential                           preference primary date.  
Where: Georgia Capitol, South Wing  
When: Thursday, September 29, 2011 at 11 a.m.

This is all very interesting. Let's read the tea leaves, shall we.

First of all, that Secretary Kemp is weighing in on when the Georgia presidential primary will be ahead of when the Florida Presidential Preference Primary Date Selection Committee will meet (Friday, September 30 between 11am-noon) to set the Florida date is telling. It tells me that Georgia will not go before January 31. Why decide on a date that challenges Florida before Florida is set to decide on their date? In fact, just because Florida Speaker Dean Cannon has said that the PPPDSC will likely choose January 31 does not make that binding. Georgia, then, will not make a decision prior to Florida if they want to go before Florida. Florida would simply leapfrog Georgia's date on Friday.

That means that Georgia is most likely to go on a date between January 31 and March 6. More specific still, Georgia is likely to jump Arizona and Michigan at the very least (before February 28). But will Georgia opt to go on January 31 with Florida or attempt to fill some empty space in February -- say February 14 or 21 -- and set a date then where they will hold a non-compliant, but significant primary with a date all to themselves? That is a tough one. But the rationale used above, though, one would have to think it is the latter. Florida wants a position all to themselves also. Why would Georgia schedule its primary on the same date as Florida before Florida has made its decision? Florida's PPPDSC could just move up another week on Friday.

My guess is that Georgia ends up on February 14 or 21. [Having waved my magic presidential primary wand, I will now be proven wrong.] That also means that we can eliminate a few of the calendar scenarios from this morning.


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What Florida on January 31 Means for the Rest of the 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar

So, Florida is strongly considering returning its presidential primary to the January 31 date with which it started 2011?1

Well, what does that mean for the remaining states that have yet to decide on dates? Furthermore, what does that mean for the rest of the calendar? First things first: If we operate under the assumption that the earliest states -- Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina -- want to schedule their respective primaries and caucuses in 2012, then what we are witnessing now is a time crunch that significantly reduces the options available to those states. Now, all we have to go on here is the precedent set in 2008. Due to the time constraints, New Hampshire was willing to hold its primary just five days after the Iowa caucuses instead of the seven days that are required by state law. That exception was made presumably because New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner did not want the beginning of the nomination process stretching over into 2007. If that is the case in 2011, then there are only so many options that are available to the earliest states.

Before FHQ gets any further I should make some points about why it is that Florida is right back to where it started from. As I mentioned last night, the uncertainty of the Missouri situation coupled with the looming state-level deadline to set a date has forced Florida's hand. The Presidential Preference Primary Date Selection Committee has to act under the worst-case-scenario assumption that the Missouri primary will end up on February 7; whether it actually does or not. That pushes Florida up to January 31 at the latest and sets in motion the sequential domino effect.

Naturally, our focus shifts to the earliest four states, but Georgia actually holds all the cards now. The calendar now hinges on the answer to the "Where will Georgia end up on the calendar?" question. There are three answers and at least two calendar scenarios associated with them:

1. Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp could opt to comply with the national parties' rules and set a date on or after March 6. Given his comments on joining Florida if the Sunshine state jumps the March 6 barrier and that he doesn't mind waiting until after Iowa and New Hampshire have set their dates to do likewise with Georgia's primary, the option seems unlikely, but still possible.

2. Secretary Kemp could also choose to set the Georgia primary on the same date as Florida.

3. Finally, Georgia could jump Florida.

The first two options yield the same calendar scenarios. Whether Georgia goes on the same date as or after Florida, the primary in the Sunshine state would still be on January 31. If, however, Georgia leapfrogs Florida, then the top of the calendar is reshuffled even further.

Option 1 (Georgia goes at the same time as Florida or later):
Tuesday, January 10: Iowa2 
Tuesday, January 17: New Hampshire
Saturday, January 21: Nevada
Tuesday, January 24: Louisiana caucuses (not confirmed but rumored)
Saturday, January 28: South Carolina
Tuesday, January 31: Florida, Georgia
Option 2 (Georgia before Florida):
a. Saturday Georgia primary
Monday, January 2: Iowa
Tuesday, January 10: New Hampshire
Saturday, January 14: Nevada
Saturday, January 21: South Carolina
Tuesday, January 24: Louisiana caucuses (not confirmed but rumored)
Saturday, January 28: Georgia
Tuesday, January 31: Florida
b. Tuesday Georgia primary
Monday, January 2: Iowa
Tuesday, January 10: New Hampshire
Saturday, January 14: Nevada
Saturday, January 21: South Carolina
Tuesday, January 24: Georgia, Louisiana caucuses (not confirmed but rumored)
Tuesday, January 31: Florida
The kicker here is that there will at some point be a showdown between New Hampshire and Nevada. New Hampshire law, as mentioned above, requires a seven day buffer on either side of its primary. An exception was made in 2007, and another one may have to be made in 2011. Why? Well, the Nevada Republican Party over the summer tethered their caucuses to New Hampshire, requiring that the caucuses be set on the Saturday after New Hampshire. New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner has already said that that would not work for the Granite state. That reformulates slightly the above scenario analyses.

Option 3 (Georgia before Florida, New Hampshire at least 7 days before Nevada):
a. Saturday Georgia primary, New Hampshire at least 7 days before Nevada
Sunday, January 1: Iowa
Tuesday, January 3: New Hampshire
Saturday, January 14: Nevada
Saturday, January 21: South Carolina
Tuesday, January 24: Louisiana caucuses (not confirmed but rumored)
Saturday, January 28: Georgia
Tuesday, January 31: Florida
b. Tuesday Georgia primary, New Hampshire at least 7 days before Nevada
Sunday, January 1: Iowa
Tuesday, January 3: New Hampshire
Saturday, January 14: Nevada
Saturday, January 21: South Carolina
Tuesday, January 24: Georgia, Louisiana caucuses (not confirmed but rumored)
Tuesday, January 31: Florida
Now, I know folks are going to run with this January 1 Iowa caucus stuff. FHQ DOES NOT THINK IT WILL END UP THIS WAY. [Perhaps I got my point across.] Iowa on January 1 is shorthand for this may start in December. I'll spare you the caps this time, but I don't think that is likely either. If the only that triggers December contests is New Hampshire's desire to have a seven versus four day buffer between it and the Nevada caucuses, then New Hampshire will relent as it did in 2007 and accept the four day cushion.

Keep in mind that the year before barrier is a powerful one. If that is broken, it signals more than anything else can that the system is broken in some fundamental way. [Yes, those arguments are out there anyway, but jumping into the year before the presidential election would be exponentially worse.]  And that is not the signal that New Hampshire wants to send. That threatens the privileged position not only the Granite state enjoys, but Iowa and now South Carolina and Nevada. Those states will do whatever they can to avoid the December scenario.

If you are keeping score at home then, watch Georgia now that Florida has seemingly decided and that will be where the answers to the 2012 primary calendar puzzle lie.

--
1 Technically, state law had Florida scheduled for the final Tuesday in January since the law was changed in 2007. But that changed when the Florida legislature again altered the law in the legislation that created the Presidential Preference Primary Date Selection Committee.

2 The BCS championship game is on Monday, January 9 and Iowa would not fall on its customary Monday slot in that event.



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Super Tuesday Caucuses for North Dakota Republicans

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The North Dakota Republican State Committee met on the evening of Tuesday, September 27 and finalized plans for their 2012 delegate selection. North Dakota Republican Party Communications Director, Matt Becker, has confirmed to FHQ via email that the caucus/convention process will begin with March 6 caucuses and culminate with the state convention during the March 30-April 1 weekend.

Notes:
1. North Dakota Republicans will caucus three months prior to their Democratic counterparts in the state. As of now, that is the greatest amount of time between Republican and Democratic delegate selection in any state across the country.

2. Super Tuesday has been shifted back a month in 2012 relative to 2008, and yet North Dakota Republicans have stuck with a date for precinct caucuses on the earliest date allowed by the national parties. That will mean, however, that there will be a month less time between the precinct caucuses and the state convention.

3. North Dakota Republicans now occupy the space on March 6 that Colorado Republicans vacated over the weekend. There are now, once again, three western Republican caucus states scheduled to hold caucuses on March 6 (Idaho, North Dakota and Wyoming). As was the case in Idaho and Wyoming, North Dakota Republicans preferred Mitt Romney in their 2008 caucuses.




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Tuesday, September 27, 2011

The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (9/27/11)

With Washington Republicans set for March 3 precinct caucuses, an update to the 2012 presidential primary calendar is in order.

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Yet to decide/be confirmed:
Iowa Republicans
New Hampshire
Nevada Republicans
South Carolina Republicans
Florida
Georgia
Missouri
Wisconsin
Alaska Republicans
North Dakota Republicans 

February 2012
Monday, February 6:
Iowa Democratic caucuses  (based on DNC rules and submitted delegate selection plan)

Saturday, February 4:
(through February 11) Maine Republican caucuses 


Tuesday, February 7:
Colorado Republican caucuses 
Minnesota Republican caucuses
Missouri (could move to March 6)

Saturday, February 18:
Nevada Democratic caucuses (based on DNC rules and submitted delegate selection plan)

Tuesday, February 21:
Wisconsin (bill moving primary to April 3 awaiting gubernatorial action)

Tuesday, February 28:
Arizona
Michigan (bill keeping primary on February 28 awaiting gubernatorial action)
South Carolina Democratic primary (based on DNC rules and submitted delegate selection plan)

March 2012

Saturday, March 3:
Washington Republican caucuses



Tuesday, March 6 (Super Tuesday):
Colorado Democratic caucuses 
Idaho Republican caucuses 
Massachusetts (active legislation would move primary to June -- unlikely to pass)
Minnesota Democratic caucuses 
Ohio
Oklahoma 
Tennessee 
Texas 
Vermont
Virginia
(through March 10) Wyoming Republican caucuses

Saturday, March 10: 
Kansas Republican caucuses


Sunday, March 11:
Maine Democratic caucuses


Tuesday, March 13:
Alabama 
Hawaii Republican caucuses
Mississippi
Utah Democratic caucuses

Tuesday, March 20
Illinois

Saturday, March 24:
Louisiana 


April 2012
Tuesday, April 3:
Maryland
Washington, DC

Saturday, April 7:
Hawaii Democratic caucuses
Wyoming Democratic caucuses

Saturday, April 14:
Idaho Democratic caucuses 
Kansas Democratic caucuses 
Nebraska Democratic caucuses

Sunday, April 15:
Alaska Democratic caucuses
Washington Democratic caucuses

Tuesday, April 24:
Connecticut
Delaware
New York
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island 


May 2012
Saturday, May 5:
Michigan Democratic caucuses


Tuesday, May 8:
Indiana
North Carolina (active legislation would move primary to March 6 -- unlikely to pass)
West Virginia

Tuesday, May 15:
Nebraska
Oregon

Tuesday, May 22:
Arkansas 
Kentucky 


June 2012
Tuesday, June 5:
California
Montana
New Jersey 
New Mexico
North Dakota Democratic caucuses
South Dakota

Tuesday, June 26:
Utah (Republicans only)




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Broken Invisible Fences and Scheduling the Missouri Presidential Primary

The AP's Chris Blank is up with a doomsday scenario article about the Missouri presidential primary situation; that the Show Me state nominating contest may be stuck on February 7 with legislation to move the primary to March 6 stuck in the state Senate. FHQ is no stranger to doomsday calendar scenarios. We were talking about Florida as a problem back when it was just one of twenty states with non-compliant contests entering 2011. We were there to shed light on the possibility of December in Des Moines and Manchester when the Florida legislature gave the Presidential Preference Primary Date Selection Committee the ability to schedule the primary in the Sunshine state as early as January 3. Those were doomsday scenarios.

Missouri is not.

...yet.

The gridlock in Missouri has the presidential primary legislation being held hostage in the state Senate as a bargaining chip the Republican-controlled Senate is using against the Republican-controlled House in an effort to produce a jobs/economic development package closer to the Senate's position. That is an undoubtedly ominous situation, but to characterize the Missouri situation as such based on the fact that a meaningless October 1 deadline is approaching is misleading at best. As we have mentioned previously, there are no penalties associated with submitting to the RNC a delegate selection plan following the October 1 date. None. It is like a broken invisible fence. Most dogs don't know any better. They think the electric current is still on and act accordingly. But a few dogs know the circuit has been broken or was never working in the first place. Missouri has been in the former group as have most states during the post-McGovern-Fraser reform era. But now Missouri will potentially join the latter group and find out on Saturday that the RNC is powerless to sanction states with undetermined presidential primary and caucus dates.

If there is pressure on the states associated with October 1, then it is only symbolic. It is not real. As FHQ pointed out last night, the pressure -- to the extent there is any -- is on the Missouri legislature based on the late October-November candidate filing window on the horizon. The Missouri presidential primary may end up on February 7, but that has little or nothing to do with this Saturday's deadline. If need be, the Missouri General Assembly will continue to negotiate up to the statutory mandate ending the special session in November.

Doomsday? Maybe. Deadline? Nope.



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Washington Republicans to Caucus on March 3

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The Washington State Republican Party has chosen to begin its delegate selection process on March 3 with precinct caucuses. A straw poll of presidential preference will be conducted at those meetings as well but the true delegate allocation -- as has been the case in Colorado, Maine, Minnesota and Wyoming -- will take place in subsequent steps in the process. In Washington, that will happen at the state convention in Tacoma during the first weekend in June. But like the rest of the caucus states above, Washington, too, will have a pre-window start to its delegate selection process, but avoid penalty due to the fact that no delegates are allocated at the precinct level.

Former Washington State Republican Party Chair Chris Vance had this to say about the Republican delegate selection in the Evergreen state:  

And where does Washington state fit in all of this?  With the cancellation of the primary election, 40 of our 43 national delegates will be allocated by the caucus/convention process.  Unlike the Democrats’ super delegate system, the only Republicans guaranteed a seat at the convention are members of the RNC. State Chairman Kirby Wilbur and our two National Committee members, therefore, are automatic delegates.  Everyone else has to get elected.

The process will start with precinct caucuses on Saturday, March 3.  Most county and legislative district party organizations are now choosing to pool multiple caucuses in public locations, such as high schools, rather than in people’s homes.  Any registered voter can attend a caucus as long as they are willing to sign a form pledging not to participate in any other party’s nomination process.  At each caucus two or three attendees will be elected as delegates to the next step in the process, which is the legislative district caucus in King County, the county convention in the rest of the state.

A presidential straw poll will be taken at the precinct caucuses and the state party will release the results.  Those results will be meaningless.  The straw poll will have nothing to do with who ultimately wins Washington’s delegates, but the media will announce a “winner” on March 3, just as they erroneously announced Pat Robertson as the winner in Washington state in 1988.

Notes:
Washington Republicans will caucus the Saturday before Super Tuesday in 2012. The party held precinct caucuses the Saturday after Super Tuesday in 2008.

There still is no official word of this from the WSRP, but this does follow a mention of the March 3 date in a Washington Times article last week and in the September message from the Kitsap County Republican Party chair. Of course, the official word is not entirely necessary other than to get some handle on when the decision was made. FHQ is still trying to determine that. We will share that information when and if it becomes available.

A tip of the cap to FHQ reader, MysteryPolitico for sharing the Washington Times article and Kitsap County links with us.

UPDATE: More from the Washington Secretary of State's office.



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“Friday will be another significant day in this process.”

-- New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner on Florida setting a presidential primary date this coming Friday (quoted in the Political Intelligence blog at The Boston Globe).

FHQ wants to stress again that this whole process is sequential. Gardner is absolutely right that Florida is but one part of the equation in his/New Hampshire's primary date calculus. Once Florida decides, the process moves to South Carolina. Decision makers in both states will have to make their decisions based on an incomplete set of information. Florida will anyway. The Missouri situation is in limbo and will likely continue to be past the point at which the Presidential Preference Primary Date Selection Committee (PPPDSC) will have to schedule the primary (on or before October 1).1 The committee will very likely have to decide on a date assuming that Missouri will be scheduled for February 7, whether the Show Me state presidential primary actually ends up on that date or ends up moving back to March 6.

Florida will have to plan for that contingency and set a date accordingly. South Carolina will follow, then Nevada and then New Hampshire. Overall, then, Bill Gardner is in no hurry. The New Hampshire secretary of state will sit back as he did four years ago, wait for the dust to settle, and then make a decision that best suits New Hampshire.2

--
1 The PPPDSC will meet for the second and final time on Friday, September 30.

2 And no, FHQ does not "predict" that will be on February 7. At the time I wrote that, as is our custom here, that was the likely latest possible date New Hampshire could have gone given the circumstances at that particular point. If FHQ had to predict where New Hampshire ends up, I'd agree with the New Hampshire Republican National Committeeman Duprey: sometime in January.



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Monday, September 26, 2011

The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (9/26/11)

The decisions by Colorado Republicans to move their precinct caucuses up to February 7 and by New Jersey acting-Governor Kim Guadagno to sign legislation moving the Garden state presidential primary away from that date means another change to the 2012 presidential primary calendar. Maine Republicans have also selected a time for their caucuses as well in the time since the Kansas Republican caucuses came to light.

[Note: Please make note of the fact that for clarity any subsequent changes to the calendar that are made will appear in the clean version form and not the marked up versions that have been added in the past.]

[Click to Enlarge]

2012 Presidential Primary Calendar

Yet to decide/be confirmed:
Iowa Republicans
New Hampshire
Nevada Republicans
South Carolina Republicans
Florida
Georgia
Missouri
Wisconsin
Alaska Republicans
North Dakota Republicans 
Washington Republicans

February 2012
Monday, February 6:
Iowa Democratic caucuses  (based on DNC rules and submitted delegate selection plan)

Saturday, February 4:
(through February 11) Maine Republican caucuses 


Tuesday, February 7:
Colorado Republican caucuses 
Minnesota Republican caucuses
Missouri (could move to March 6)

Saturday, February 18:
Nevada Democratic caucuses (based on DNC rules and submitted delegate selection plan)

Tuesday, February 21:
Wisconsin (bill moving primary to April 3 awaiting gubernatorial action)

Tuesday, February 28:
Arizona
Michigan (bill keeping primary on February 28 awaiting gubernatorial action)
South Carolina Democratic primary (based on DNC rules and submitted delegate selection plan)

March 2012
Tuesday, March 6 (Super Tuesday):
Colorado Democratic caucuses 
Idaho Republican caucuses 
Massachusetts (active legislation would move primary to June -- unlikely to pass)
Minnesota Democratic caucuses 
Ohio
Oklahoma 
Tennessee 
Texas 
Vermont
Virginia
(through March 10) Wyoming Republican caucuses

Saturday, March 10: 
Kansas Republican caucuses


Sunday, March 11:
Maine Democratic caucuses


Tuesday, March 13:
Alabama 
Hawaii Republican caucuses
Mississippi
Utah Democratic caucuses

Tuesday, March 20
Illinois

Saturday, March 24:
Louisiana 


April 2012
Tuesday, April 3:
Maryland
Washington, DC

Saturday, April 7:
Hawaii Democratic caucuses
Wyoming Democratic caucuses

Saturday, April 14:
Idaho Democratic caucuses 
Kansas Democratic caucuses 
Nebraska Democratic caucuses

Sunday, April 15:
Alaska Democratic caucuses
Washington Democratic caucuses

Tuesday, April 24:
Connecticut
Delaware
New York
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island 


May 2012
Saturday, May 5:
Michigan Democratic caucuses


Tuesday, May 8:
Indiana
North Carolina (active legislation would move primary to March 6 -- unlikely to pass)
West Virginia

Tuesday, May 15:
Nebraska
Oregon

Tuesday, May 22:
Arkansas 
Kentucky 


June 2012
Tuesday, June 5:
California
Montana
New Jersey 
New Mexico
North Dakota Democratic caucuses
South Dakota

Tuesday, June 26:
Utah (Republicans only)


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Window Closing Sooner Rather Than Later on Moving Missouri Presidential Primary to March

Friday came and went, the Missouri General Assembly special session pushed on, and the date of the Show Me state presidential primary remained in limbo. The session was rumored to be coming to a close on Friday, but with many of the items on the special session legislative agenda splitting the Republican-controlled House and Senate, the session has devolved into technical sessions meant to do nothing more than keep the session going. The state Senate gaveled in a session this morning only to adjourn shortly thereafter to return next Monday.

Stuck in neutral, then, what does this mean for the Missouri presidential primary? For starters, the RNC deadline for setting primary or caucus dates is October 1 -- this coming Saturday. Of course, there are no penalties associated with missing that deadline (...from the RNC at least). On the state and local levels it means continued uncertainty for elections officials who must procede as if the primary will be on February 7. But this affects the candidates as well. The special session can go on into November, and it may, but it won't take the presidential primary with it.

Why?

Well, the candidate filing deadline -- according to Missouri Revised Statute Section 115.761.1 -- and the fee associated with it are due to the state in a window between 8am on the Tuesday fifteen weeks prior to the primary and 5pm on the Tuesday eleven weeks to the primary. If the primary is set on February 7, then that window stretches from October 25-November 22. The first part of that window could overlap with the continuation and close of the special session. This is particularly interesting considering that the House committee substitute to HB 3, in addition to altering the presidential primary date, also raises the filing fee.

The pressure, then, would be on the legislature to resolve its differences and get a bill off to the governor for his consideration on or prior to October 25. That is four weeks from Tuesday. The state House is set to meet next for a technical session on Thursday, September 29 and the state Senate on Monday, October 3. The result is that the Missouri primary date will be unknown until a time past the RNC-mandated deadline for having set a primary or caucus date.

Thanks to an FHQ reader for pointing out the filing deadline conflict.



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