Another Weekend, Another Mixed Bag for Romney in Caucus State Delegate Allocation

Not to completely beat this into the ground, but FHQ has attempted since Iowa on January 3 to point out that there are likely to be differences -- some significant, some small -- between non-binding precinct caucus results and the ultimate allocation of delegates across the handful of states with these caucus/conventions systems. With Rick Santorum having suspended his campaign, the balance will tip toward more significant differences rather than smaller ones (ie: Romney, as presumptive nominee, overperforming his straw poll showings at the precinct level), but with some variation. Hypothetically speaking, then, the baseline expectation is that the worse Romney did in the initial straw poll, the greater the turnaround will be for him when the delegates are actually allocated.

Now, FHQ is not going to formally test this -- not yet anyway -- but in eyeballing it, there is some evidence of this in the small group of caucus states to have finalized or partially finalized their delegate allocation.¹ In North Dakota, for instance, Romney turned a third place finish in the March 6 straw poll into an overall victory as measured in national convention delegates coming out of the state convention in the Peace Garden state. Stated differently, Romney received just a shade under 24% of the vote in the North Dakota straw poll, but won over 43% of the delegates at the state convention.

This is a small group of states, though, and there is evidence that the opposite has occurred as well: Romney not improving on an earlier (weak) performance. In a similar circumstance to North Dakota, Minnesota also saw Romney finish third in the February 7 straw poll vote. Unlike North Dakota, however, the congressional district delegate allocation has continued to go (overwhelmingly) against Romney. Instead of consolidating behind the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, nearly 85% of the delegates have gone to Texas congressman Ron Paul.  That is a more than tripling of the level of support Paul garnered in the precinct caucuses.²

As compared to that baseline expectation above, we get less a picture of some sort of systematic, generalizable pattern and more of a sense that much of this variation -- the movement to and from candidates from the initial step of the process to the delegate allocation step -- is based on state-level quirks. And I don't know that that is all that unexpected. It speaks to the decentralized nature of the Republican nomination process, and by extension the differences across states in allocating delegates. That is why we have instances where Romney placed third in straw polls with under a quarter of the vote but ended up with 0% of the delegates in Minnesota and 43% in North Dakota.³

If those are the two extremes in the precinct caucus performance to convention allocation range, then there are a couple of states that fit somewhere in between; states where Romney crested above the 25% mark in the straw poll, but where the former Massachusetts governor has improved upon that in the allocation of delegates. Despite some mixed results in Colorado a week ago, Romney was still able to increase his 35% share of the straw poll vote to a nearly 45% share of the delegates allocated. In Missouri, Romney's doubled his 25% showing in the February 7 non-binding primary in the congressional district convention delegate allocation.⁴ Of the 24 delegates on the line across the Show Me state in eight congressional district conventions on Saturday, Romney supporters filled twelve slots.

Again, much of the variation is attributable to state-level factors. These are factors like the North Dakota Republican Party putting forth a delegate slate at their state convention that was heavily weighted toward Romney. Moving in the opposite direction, the fact that Paul-Santorum unity slates won 16 out of 21 congressional district delegate positions and 20 of the 33 total spots represents evidence of a lack of consolidation behind Romney in some of these states. And heading into the rest of the contests, what should we expect?

Continued variation.

• Will state parties attempt to ram through Romney-centric slates as in North Dakota?
• Will they have to or will there be any discernible consolidation behind Romney with or without such efforts?
• Will Paul slates of delegates continue to work with Santorum leftovers like in Colorado?
• Will those Santorum remainders take the seemingly pragmatic route and work with Romney unity slates as in several Missouri congressional district conventions?

There are still state conventions to be held in Minnesota and Missouri and state/district conventions to be held in Iowa, Maine and Washington (and Louisiana). With the exception of Missouri (see footnote #4), Ron Paul received anywhere from 21% of the vote at the precinct level (Iowa) to 34% (Maine). In tandem with the Santorum share of the vote, that creates a Paul-Santorum range of 46% (Iowa) collectively to 72% (Minnesota) where those Santorum folks are fairly consequential in determining the ultimate allocation. Siding with Romney is a vote for consolidation and party unity whereas a vote for Paul is a vote against Romney.

...just like what the Romney folks did to John McCain in siding with Paul delegates in Nevada in 2008.

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¹ At this point, that list includes Colorado, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota and Wyoming. Iowa, Maine and Washington have yet to reach either the state or district convention stages of their processes. The district conventions are held in conjunction with the state conventions in either May or June in each of those three states.

² Paul's delegate haul in the four congressional district conventions in Minnesota on Saturday (April 21) mirrored his performance in the four prior district conventions: ten Paul delegates, two non-Paul delegates. The Minnesota count as of now stands at Paul: 20, Santorum: 2, Gingrich: 1 and Unknown: 2 with 13 delegates to be selected at the state convention and two automatic delegates.

³ The process is complete in North Dakota, but the Minnesota process has just gotten through the district convention allocation stage. In other words, the process is not complete there. The 0% number should also bear some caveats. Two of the remaining four delegates that have been allocated in Minnesota are Santorum delegates allocated prior to this weekend. The final two are unknown in terms of their affiliation. They could be Romney supporters, but could be unaligned or aligned with another candidate. That 0% is based on what we know now: Romney has no clear delegates from Minnesota.

⁴ Missouri is slightly different from the other states in that the non-binding primary held there was not held in conjunction with the selection of delegates to move on to a subsequent step in a caucus/convention process. The Missouri Republican Party did not report results from the March 17 precinct caucuses where the delegate selection process began. If anything there is less of a link between the primary results in Missouri and the delegate selection than there is in the other non-binding caucus states without a primary. But without precinct-level caucus data, the primary results in Missouri are all we have in the way of comparison in terms of where the process began there.

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In Missouri, A Bill to Bind Delegates Based on the Presidential Primary; Not the Caucus

Back at the end of March, Missouri state House member, Tom Flanigan (R-127th), introduced HB 2031. The intent of the legislation is to bind the delegates to the national conventions based on the results of the state-funded presidential primary.¹ Now, as one will recall, the Missouri presidential primary was only binding on the Democratic nomination race, but not on the Republican side. Since the Republican-controlled Missouri legislature could not agree on a date to which the presidential primary should be moved, the presidential primary remained in February; a date that was non-compliant with both national parties' delegate selection rules.²

The Missouri Democratic Party petitioned the DNC for and received a waiver to proceed with the February primary.³ Republicans in the Show Me state, however, had no recourse. With no waiver process in place on the Republican side and with the decision to remain in February resting [mostly] with Republicans in the state legislature, the Missouri Republican Party had a choice to make between sticking with the non-compliant February presidential primary -- which meant losing 50% of the delegation -- or shifting the the delegate selection and allocation to a caucus/convention system. The state party chose the latter, and that has not sat well at least some Missouri Republicans ever since.

Enter HB 2031. The language is simple (sections in bold are bill-based additions to code):

115.755. 1. A statewide presidential preference primary shall be held on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in February of each presidential election year.             

2. The results of the presidential preference primary conducted under this section shall bind each party delegate on a first vote at the national party convention, and shall take precedence over any result of any presidential preference caucus.

However, that may be all that is simple about this legislation (...and why it is probably likely not to pass). Obviously, if this legislation were to pass and be signed into law it would create a conflict between the state government and the state party over the nature of the delegate selection/allocation process. And before FHQ gets too far into this, it should be noted that there are plenty of examples of state laws that dictate the delegate selection process. Massachusetts, New Hampshire and North Carolina, for instance, not only prescribe a threshold past which candidates receive delegates but also that the overall allocation be proportional to the vote in the primary election. The Missouri legislation lacks that specificity. That is not a problem in and of itself, but it does -- to FHQ's eyes anyway -- indicate the kind of ad hoc nature of this bill.

What makes such laws workable in Massachusetts or New Hampshire or North Carolina is that the state parties are fine with the delegate selection/allocation guidelines laid forth therein. There is no conflict. But if there was, the state party could/would take the state to court. And time and time again, courts have sided with the parties (see Tashjian and/or California Democratic Party v. Jones). The nomination process, after all, is a party function and the courts have established and reasserted the precedent that gives parties first amendment rights of free association that affects not only participation but other rules of nomination as well. While the three states above, then, have no internal conflict -- between state government laws and party guidelines -- Missouri would have such a conflict in the event that this legislation became law.

The Missouri Republican Party has been pretty clear about wanting to avoid sanctions from the RNC. That was the point of the -- from their vantage point -- temporary switch to a caucus/convention system for delegate allocation in 2012. The Republican-controlled legislature, on the other hand, could not decide what to do with the primary once the original to-March bill was vetoed. Neither Republican caucus -- in the House or Senate -- could come to terms on moving the primary back, keeping it where it was or as a last resort, canceling it for 2012 altogether. And if FHQ had to bet on the outcome of this new bill to bind the delegates based on the February 7 primary, I would wager on it getting bogged down somewhere along the line in the legislature.

Time is short anyway. Missouri Republican Party district-level conventions are this weekend and the state convention is June 2. On top of that, the bill was just referred to committee on April 18 and the legislative session is due to expire on May 18.

To quote George Costanza: "Prognosis Negative."

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¹ The bill also corrects a contradiction in the election codes that refers to the presidential primary on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in March. That section was not altered in the 2002 legislation that moved the presidential primary from March to the first Tuesday after the first Monday in February for the 2004 cycle.

² The legislature did pass legislation to move the primary back to March, but that legislation was vetoed by Governor Jay Nixon (D) because it contained a provision that would have stripped the governor of some of his/her appointment power (in the event of a vacancy to statewide office).

³ The argument for the waiver was that the primary being scheduled in February was a matter that was out of the hands of Missouri Democrats -- both the party and the Democratic members of the legislature. The national party's decision was made that much easier by the fact that the Democratic nomination race was not competitive. In other words, the fallout from such a decision did not clearly benefit one candidate over another. For a situation where competition mattered in such decision-making, see the Florida example from 2008.


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Race to 1144: CO, MN & ND Conventions

Source:
Contest Delegates (via contest results and rules, and RNC)
Automatic Delegates (Democratic Convention Watch)

Delegate breakdown (post-CO, MN & ND conventions):


Changes since Maryland, Washington, DC & Wisconsin (4/3/12):

• Romney: +25 delegates (Colorado: +14, North Dakota: +7, New York: +2, Connecticut: +1, Massachusetts: +1)
• Santorum: +15 delegates (North Dakota: +7, Colorado: +6, Minnesota: +2)
• Paul: +12 delegates (Minnesota: +10, North Dakota: +2)
• Gingrich: +1 delegate (North Dakota: +1)

Notes:
1) Mitt Romney has picked up five automatic delegates in the time since the April 3 primaries: two in New York and one each in Colorado, Connecticut and Massachusetts.

2) The AP reported in the week after the North Dakota Republican state convention that of the 25 total delegates, Romney added 12, Santorum 8, Paul 2 and Gingrich 1. The remaining two contest delegates were uncommitted.

3) In Colorado, Romney was awarded 13 delegates, Santorum 6 and the final 14 contest delegates remained uncommitted following the state and congressional district conventions over the weekend.

4) The four congressional district conventions that have been held in Minnesota have favored Texas congressman, Ron Paul, thus far. Ten of his supporters have won slots while Santorum delegates filled out the 12 delegate slate.

5) The allocation of the delegates in Georgia is based on the most recent vote returns published online by the office of the Georgia Secretary of State. The allocation here differs from the RNC allocation in Georgia. The above grants Gingrich one additional delegate (which has been taken from Romney's total). Due to the way the Georgia Republican Party rounds fractional delegates, the FHQ count was off by one delegate (+Romney/-Gingrich). The congressional district count is unaffected (Gingrich 31, Romney, 8 and Santorum 3), but the way the at-large delegates are allocated to Gingrich and Romney -- the only candidates over 20% statewide -- is a bit quirky. Gingrich's portion of the vote would have entitled him to 14.6 delegates and Romney's 8.0. Under Georgia Republican rules, Gingrich is given 14 delegates and Romney 8. That leaves nine delegates unclaimed because the remaining candidates did not clear the 20% threshold. The candidate with the highest "remainder" is awarded the first delegate and the candidates over 20% trade turns until all of those delegates are allocated. Remember, Gingrich did not round up to 15 delegates (14.6), but that 0.6 gives him a larger "remainder" than Romney. The former speaker, then, is allocated the first of nine delegates. With an odd number of delegates leftover, Gingrich would have a fifth turn after Romney's fourth and that would end the allocation of those "extra" delegates. Gingrich would claim five to Romney's four. Of the 31 at-large delegates, Gingrich is allocated 19 and Romney 12. Please note that for winning the statewide vote, Gingrich is allocated the three automatic delegates. That makes the final allocation Gingrich 53, Romney 20 and Santorum 3. The RNC, though, has a different interpretation.

6) The Alabama primary results by congressional district have not been released by the Alabama Republican Party. The distribution above is based on the RNC interpretation of the allocation.

7)  Iowa Republican Party Chairman Spiker was a part of the Paul campaign in Iowa and resigned his position upon taking up the post of party chair. While he has expressed his intent to side with whomever the Republican nominee will be, Spiker has not also directly signaled any neutrality in the race. The door is open for his support of Paul at a potential contested convention. While FHQ includes Spiker in Paul's delegate total, it is necessary to make note of the possible future subtraction of one delegate that would bring the Texas congressman's total to 26.

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Mixed Results for Romney in First Contests Since Becoming Presumptive Nominee

If you were expecting a repeat of North Dakota in Colorado or Minnesota over the weekend in state and/or congressional district conventions, you were dealt a bit of a surprise.

Unlike what transpired in the Peace Garden state two weeks ago, presumptive Republican presidential nominee, Mitt Romney, was unable to dominate the proceedings in either Colorado's state and congressional district conventions or in the three congressional district conventions in Minnesota's 3rd, 5th and 6th districts. Instead Romney was shut out in the North Star state, overperformed his statewide straw poll showing in the Colorado state convention, and broke even or was bested in the seven congressional district conventions in the Centennial state.

In Minnesota:
According to Minnesota Republican National Committeewoman Pat Anderson, Ron Paul swept all three congressional district conventions in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. Remember on February 7 when the twitterverse collectively scoffed at the the notion that Paul would get the "maximum number of delegates out of Minnesota"? FHQ filed that memory away. As of now, four congressional districts have held conventions. Paul adds nine from the past weekend's three conventions to the one delegate he received in the 7th district at the end of March.¹ Half way through the congressional district delegate allocation, 83% of the delegates so far selected support Ron Paul. FHQ has been saying it since January, and we'll say it again: Ron Paul will get his delegates. Will he win the Republican nomination? No, but he will likely overshoot his delegate total from four years ago in St. Paul this summer in Tampa.

In Colorado:
Statewide:
In winning eight delegate spots out of 12 total at-large delegates, Mitt Romney outperformed his 35% straw poll share of the vote by almost 100%.² In other words, had Colorado proportionally allocated its at-large delegates, Romney would have received just four delegates. On this particular weekend, this statewide (state convention) vote was the closest thing to North Dakota that was witnessed across two other (mostly) non-binding caucus states.

Congressional Districts:
Of all the candidates, Mitt Romney had the most delegates at five of the seven Colorado congressional district conventions. Of course, that overlooks the fact that there was a fairly significant cache of unpledged delegates across all seven districts. It also turns a blind eye to the reality that Santorum's and Paul's collective delegate strength was greater than Romney's in five of the seven districts. In those two districts where Romney outmatched the Paul/Santorum "team"³ -- the 3rd and 6th districts -- Romney won one and two delegates respectively. Unpledged delegates won the other two delegate positions in the 3rd and the other one in the 6th. It may, then, have been less about a collective effort between Paul and Santorum supporters than the majority of unpledged delegates in both of those districts.

What was truly strange was that Santorum won any of the congressional district delegates. He placed fourth in the number of congressional district convention delegates in the 1st (one delegate won) and 2nd (one delegate won), and third in the 4th (one delegate won), 5th (two delegates won), and 7th (one delegate won). No candidate received all three delegates from any of the seven congressional districts, but Santorum winning two delegates in a district where he finished behind "Unpledged" and Paul -- in that order -- was noteworthy the weekend after the former Pennsylvania senator suspended his campaign.

Meanwhile, it was perhaps even stranger that Ron Paul emerged from the Colorado district conventions with no pledged delegates. Many Paul supporters celebrated the overall unpledged victory, claiming that those are Ron Paul delegates. And with Santorum out, that may not necessarily be untrue, though Santorum delegates comprise six of the 20 total slots that were not either Romney delegates or automatic delegates in the Colorado delegation.

2012 Colorado Republican Party Congressional District Delegate Breakdown  (National Convention Delegates Won in Parentheses)
District	Unpledged	Romney	Santorum	Paul	Gingrich
#1	20 (2)	31	7 (1)	36	5
#2	51 (2)	14	7 (1)	13	1
#3	89 (2)	27 (1)	19	6	2
#4	78 (2)	28	23 (1)	13	0
#5	35	9 (1)	14 (2)	17	0
#6	48 (1)	31 (2)	11	4	0
#7	56 (1)	21 (1)	16 (1)	10	0
(Total)	(10)	(5)	(6)	(0)	(0)

What, then, can we take away from the weekend?

For starters, this provides us with perhaps the polar opposite to what happened in North Dakota, where the state party put forth a delegate slate for vote before the entire state convention that was weighted toward Mitt Romney. Romney may or may not do well among the Minnesota at-large delegate slate, the Paul, Santorum and Gingrich supporters aren't rolling over and playing dead.

...even if Romney is the presumptive Republican nominee.

And again, this further fills out the picture of the connection between the straw poll results and the actual delegate allocation in the non-binding/unbound delegate caucus states. It may be that at some point everyone rallies behind Mitt Romney as the Republican nominee, but that is not happening yet as the state conventions for these caucus states roll around. North Dakota was evidence that the party (state or national) was willing that to be the case, but Colorado and Minnesota have given the counterargument: That the straw poll, or more to the point, the precinct caucuses are not entirely meaningless. There is no binding mechanism, but that does not mean that the delegates chosen to move from one round of the caucus/convention process are not devoid of presidential candidate preferences. The fallout from North Dakota and the results in Colorado and (so far in) Minnesota should speak to that. None of these allocations have been proportional to the straw poll results, nor have they been winner-take-all. They are the organic byproduct of the caucus/convention system; unbound by direct allocation rules.

The expectation is that Romney will likely move toward a consolidation of the vote in the remaining primary states, but these caucus states -- finishing up a process that was borne out of an earlier and competitive portion of this race -- will be worth watching. Delegates committed to the non-Romney candidates may continue to be for their candidates.

...or at least against the presumptive nominee as these processes run their course. Want a signal that the not-Romney voters and delegates have given up? Watch these delegate allocating state conventions as primaries continue to tip toward Romney.

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¹ Delegates supporting Rick Santorum took the other two slots.

² Colorado Republican Party National Delegate Results:
Colorado Republican Party National Delegate Results

³ This was something that FHQ brought up last week in setting the stage for the Colorado delegate allocation.

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Hey Hey, Ho Ho. This Romney Protest's Got to Go?

...or something like that.

FHQ will take the bait and fan the smoldering embers of the fire that is the 2012 Republican presidential primary race. First Read's Michael O'Brien actually brings up a fairly interesting question about the factors surrounding/likelihood of a protest vote against Mitt Romney throughout the rest of the primary calendar. No, I'm not going to dwell on the question of whether there will be a protest vote -- there will be¹ -- but FHQ will look at the factors that will likely play into Romney meeting or surpassing the mostly arbitrary 70% mark in the remaining primaries and caucuses. Let's look at the factors that may keep Romney under that particular share of the vote:

[...you know, before those inevitable stories about how weak Romney is because there are still voters voting against him.]

1. Opposition by numbers: Simply put, the number of active candidates still in the race matters in this instance. The more candidates involved, the higher the collective vote share. Ron Paul will get his share of the vote. If anything proved that, it was the Texas congressman's performance against John McCain in 2008. Paul's voters were never going to jump ship to Romney anyway. Gingrich is another matter. The former speaker will likely pull in some of the displaced Santorum vote, but so too will Romney. And Santorum is still on the ballot in most states. Some of those Santorum votes will stay home. Well, they may actually stay home or stay home by voting for Santorum -- their preferred candidate.
2. Open primaries: Now that the race is effectively over -- Eh, who am I kidding? It's over. -- Democrats are even less likely to cross over to vote in the Republican primary. However, Paul will continue to pull in both Libertarian-minded Republicans and independents in some of the more open primary states (see O'Brien's example of Idaho in 2008, Paul's high water mark in terms of vote share). 
3. Geography/evangelism: Yeah, it still matters.

The combination of these factors makes North Carolina, Indiana, West Virginia, Arkansas and Texas states to most closely watch for that 70% mark that other recent Republican nominees have been able to garner against only token opposition.²

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¹ And to be clear, this will have no impact on the outcome of the Republican nomination. Romney will be the Republican nominee.

² Throw Rhode Island in for good measure, too. The Ocean state allows independents to participate. [Thanks to the Green Papers for the data on primary participation across states.]

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Santorum Suspends: A Nomination Race in Context

Well, FHQ will add its two cents. And not surprisingly, we'll look at Rick Santorum's decision to suspend his presidential campaign through the lens of the delegate count.

All too often delegate counts don't matter in the grand scheme of things in most presidential nomination races. To the extent that they do, it is fleeting. Counting up delegates is only consequential and/or necessary in a couple of instances:

1. After the race has progressed far enough that one candidate has effectively taken all/most of the momentum -- or continued riding it from the invisible primary portion of the campaign -- and thus stretched out to a large enough lead to make a comeback unlikely if not impossible.
2. If the race has progressed to a point where two or more candidates are trading primary and caucus wins and staying within range of each other in terms of the delegate count. 

These are the extremes and throughout much of the post-reform era the process has moved ever closer to the former rather than the latter. A constantly frontloading calendar gave, for much of that period, frontrunning candidates a greater and better opportunity to effectively wrap up the nomination early if they had established themselves as the clear frontrunner heading into the contest portion of the race. The nomination races in both parties in 2000 and for the Democrats in 2004 are good examples. But if 2008 demonstrated anything it was that if the invisible primary (fundraising, poll position and endorsement) has proven inconclusive, then true delegate counting may ensue. Certainly, this was more the case on the Democratic side in 2008 than among the Republican candidates.

One easy way of describing the 2012 Republican nomination race is to say that despite all the rules changes and all the calendar movement, it still played out pretty much like 2008. Super Tuesday came and went with one candidate well ahead of the others in the delegate count and a month later it was over. Of course, John McCain was way out in front of his rivals in 2008 after the February 5 Super Tuesday series of contests, but a month later -- after wins in Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas and Vermont -- the Arizona senator wrapped up the nomination. And that's just as it was in 2012. Romney emerged from Super Tuesday on March 6 with a sizable enough delegate lead and eliminated his final viable opponent a month later after wins in Maryland, Washington, DC and Wisconsin.

Now, the explanation is more complex than that. After all McCain surpassed the 1191 delegate mark to officially clinch the nomination a month after Super Tuesday, whereas Romney will continue to march toward 1144 in a semi-contested to uncontested way for the rest of the calendar. The point here is not to minimize that distinction. Rather, the intent is to point out that while delegate counting is fun -- more so for some of us than others -- often these contests for a party's nomination are more a process of elimination. Presumptive nominees don't often have to concern themselves with the sorts of gain-deficit ratios and other delegate calculations Barbara Norrander (2000) so eloquently describes in discussing the end game of nomination contests. No, more often than not, it is simply a matter of a frontrunner eliminating his or her final viable opponent (Norrander 1996).

We counted delegates for a while in 2012, but this one ended like so many other presidential nomination races of the post-reform era ended: with the runner-up withdrawing. In this case, Mitt Romney had established enough of a delegate lead that a Santorum comeback was unlikely if not impossible.


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Cart Before the Horse: Pennsylvania/Colorado Edition

FHQ realizes that the desire is to jump to the next seemingly consequential contest in the Republican presidential nomination race. And with 72 unbound delegates -- directly and blindly selected on the April 24 primary ballot¹ -- on the line in the home state of the current number two in the overall delegate count, that is not entirely unwarranted. [Mostly unwarranted, but not entirely.] But to the folks who said after last week's three contests in Maryland, Washington, DC and Wisconsin that there were no contests between now and April 24, well, there are.

...and contests with delegates on the line.

Sure, one could argue that Colorado has already had its turn in the spotlight, but with district and state assemblies later this week in the Centennial state -- contests that will actually select delegates to attend the Republican National Convention in Tampa -- it means more now than in the earlier non-binding straw poll.² Of the 36 Colorado delegates, 21 will be on the line in congressional district assemblies on April 12-13 and 12 more (at-large delegates) will be at stake at the state assembly on April 14. The remaining three delegates are automatic delegates who are free to endorse/pledge to whichever candidate they choose. However, both the national committeeman and national committeewoman -- two of the automatic delegates -- will be elected at the state convention as well.

Looking at the precinct caucuses straw poll results, the inclination is to assume -- as the AP has done -- that Rick Santorum will emerge with more delegates. Of course, this ignores the rules of delegate selection in Colorado.³ Now, while the RNC will likely continue to consider the Colorado delegates unbound even after this weekend, this overlooks the fact that, in a change from the 2008 rules, the Colorado Republican Party is allowing delegate candidates to officially pledge themselves to a candidate. Additionally, that pledge is binding through one ballot at the national convention (...or until said candidate is no longer in the race). [That sounds an awful lot like a bound delegate. As such, this will be an interesting test case in terms of the RNC delegate count. The RNC has already counted the Illinois delegates, though technically unbound, toward both Romney's and Santorum's totals. Those delegates were filed as supporters of the candidates and elected directly on the March 20 primary ballot.]

What this means is that the delegate candidates in Colorado are who we need to look at and not the straw poll results from February 7. By that measure, it looks as if Mitt Romney will emerge victorious in the Colorado delegate count. The former Massachusetts governor has more at-large delegate candidates pledged to him than any other candidate and more pledged congressional district delegates in five of the seven Colorado congressional districts.

The leader in the other two congressional districts, you might be surprised to find out, is Ron Paul and not Rick Santorum. [Perhaps that autopsy should live on.]

Now, before we get into possible Santorum-Paul alliances to prevent Mitt Romney from overperforming his straw poll numbers in another non-binding caucus state, there is another wildcard to discuss: unpledged delegates. The Colorado Republican Party may have changed the rules regarding the pledging/binding of delegates compared to the 2008 cycle, but that never meant that delegates had to run as pledged to a particular candidate. They don't. In fact, if "Unpledged" was a candidate, he or she would be the frontrunner to emerge with the most delegates from Colorado. With the exception of the first congressional district, there are more unpledged delegates than pledged delegates in the six other congressional districts and statewide (at-large). The race to determine/sway the preferences of those delegates will play an outsized role in the selection of delegates in the congressional district and state conventions later this week.

NOTES:

1. As Jon Bernstein pointed out yesterday, though this race is effectively over, the fact that none of the remaining three candidates other than Romney has dropped out -- and by all accounts have no plans to in the near term -- provides us with a nice glimpse into the mechanics of Republican caucus/convention systems in a somewhat competitive environment. It is a helpful exercise to observe what happens -- particularly in light of the projections made based on the February 7 straw poll. 
2. To get back to those latent Santorum-Paul delegate alliances, it is an open question as to whether such coalitions are to the candidates' benefit. On the one hand both could strategically align with each other to prevent Romney from winning the most delegates on either the congressional district level or at the state convention. But on the other hand, the margins are not that great between each candidate individually and Mitt Romney -- statewide or in any of the seven congressional districts -- that the persuasion of some of the unpledged delegates could not be overcome. In fact, FHQ would hypothesize that, at least initially, a Darwinian struggle for the votes of those unpledged delegates would be the optimal strategy for each of the campaigns. But this is a more dynamic process than "form a coalition" or "go-it-alone" for Paul and Santorum (or Romney for that matter). The struggle may be where this starts, but again, there is a difference between delegate selection and delegate binding. And there are no rules to guide this process in Colorado. Nothing has to be proportional to the straw poll vote or the vote at that district or state convention. Nor does the allocation have to be winner-take-all. It could be either, but neither is required by rule. Much, then, will depend on the method of voting. Is it an open Darwinian struggle -- of sorts -- like the Iowa Democratic caucuses or is/are a secret ballot vote(s) taken to determine overall preference and delegates chosen accordingly? We don't know. 
3. Of course, with more than one congressional district, Colorado will be different from North Dakota. The Colorado GOP may put forth a slate of at-large delegates at the state convention -- that doesn't appear to be the case -- but that is a much more difficult enterprise from above and outside of the congressional district conventions. 
4. That has not stopped at least some from crying shenanigans. Romney's delegates will be the first listed on the ballot (...based on national delegate count order).
5. This means a lot less with Santorum suspending his campaign. Consider the experiment in semi-competitive Republican caucus states over.

--
¹ FHQ will have more on the Pennsylvania Republican delegate selection system some other time. Suffice it to say, it will not be the easiest contest in which to gauge some measure of victory for a candidate or candidates. ...as if Rick Santorum needed any more hills to climb in the quest to keep Mitt Romney from 1144.

² Yes, from a momentum standpoint, binding or not, the Colorado win along with Minnesota and Missouri wins helped make Rick Santorum relevant again for the contests -- particularly Michigan -- later in February. That didn't stop the Romney campaign from retorting that Santorum got no delegates out of his February 7 victories.

³ I suppose it helps that the AP (via the New York Times) adds the very fine print that Colorado is non-binding and the delegate allocation for the state is just a projection. It would be perhaps less misleading if they didn't project the delegates at all. See North Dakota.


Recent Posts:
Maine Legislature Exploring Presidential Primary Option for 2016

More on Santorum Delegate Math and Some Thoughts on Texas as Winner-Take-All

Race to 1144: MD, DC & WI Primaries

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Maine Legislature Exploring Presidential Primary Option for 2016

In mid-March LD 1882 was introduced in both the Maine state House and Senate on behalf of Secretary of State Joseph Carleton. At the time of introduction the legislation was intended to create an optional presidential primary system for primary voters in the Pine Tree state. In other words, the goal was to provide one or more of the parties active in the state a state-funded option for selecting and allocating national convention delegates for the purposes of nominating a presidential candidate.

Under the provisions of the original bill, the state party central committees would have the ability to opt into the state-funded primary -- as opposed to the caucus system that has been in place for much of the post-reform era. And even if just one party did so -- whether in scenarios where both major parties have competitive nomination races or just one did -- the state would have been on the hook for the expenses behind the primary election. As long as the date was not before January 1 of the election year, the state party would be free to set the date of the contest on a date of its choosing. If both parties were to have competitive nominations, the two parties would have to agree on a date. In the event that the parties could not come to an agreement on the date or if one or both simply failed to certify a date with the secretary of state, the primary would be set for one week after the New Hampshire primary (whenever it was -- presumably if it was not prior to January 1).

[Speaking of New Hampshire, if any party opted into the primary as outlined above their delegate allocation process would be guided by a proportional method of allocation for any candidate receiving 10% or more of the vote in the primary. ...just like in New Hampshire.]

But that is the original bill.

It has subsequently been amended to allow for further consideration of the state's options. The amended bill charges the Joint Committee on Veteran and Legal Affairs to explore the options available for the presidential nomination process in Maine (sometime in the July 1-October 15, 2012 window) and produce legislation to be introduced and considered during the first session of the 126th Maine legislature. The amended bill easily passed the state Senate (31-4) but found more resistance in the state House. The 85-57 vote to pass the bill had a more Democratic and Republican ayes than nays but there were more Republicans (34) voting against than Democrats (23) and more Democrats (45) voting for than Republicans (40). Both parties were split over the legislation in the House.

[The bill's fiscal report indicates that a 2006 study found a presidential primary election would cost the state $1 million. That figure and some additional administrative costs is being used as the price tag in this legislation.]

Maine has abandoned the caucus before. The state had a primary option codified and in place for the 1996-2000 presidential nomination cycles before returning to the caucus system in 2004.

Thanks to Jim Fossell for passing along news of this bill to FHQ.


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More on Santorum Delegate Math and Some Thoughts on Texas as Winner-Take-All

FHQ won't belabor the point on the Santorum delegate math. We're late to this anyway, as the Santorum campaign put out their memo, "The Media's Delegate Math is Wrong" last Thursday. There are degrees to delegate counting. As much as the AP projection is rosy for Romney (It is actually not that bad for Santorum, while we're on the subject.), the Santorum count is equally -- well, way more so in truth -- Santorum-friendly.

The truth lies somewhere in between; closer to the AP projection, but in the between nonetheless. At least with the AP's math, we know that there is a proportional projection of the delegates across most of the group of non-binding caucus states. That can be accounted for, and in fact, FHQ attempts to do just that by backing out those delegates until they are actually allocated at congressional district and/or state conventions. Those delegates are unbound. To take one example, the AP initially -- based on the March 6 caucus straw poll results -- awarded Rick Santorum 11 delegates in North Dakota, Ron Paul eight, Mitt Romney seven and Newt Gingrich two delegates. [Yes, that proportionally allocates the three automatic delegates also.] The reality following the late March state convention in the Peace Garden state was that the slate of delegates selected favored Romney. Once the dust settled the AP was able to report that of that elected slate of delegates, 12 supported Romney, eight Santorum, two Paul and one delegate came out for Gingrich.¹ Two others remained uncommitted and that rounded out the 25 non-automatic delegates. Of those three automatic delegates, one, the national committeewoman Sandy Boehler endorsed Romney while the other two stayed on the sidelines.

Is the media's count wrong?

Yes, their projection was. Reality versus projection shows an eight seven delegate swing in Romney's direction.

The advantage to that is that we have the ability to pinpoint mistakes; or at least perceived mistakes. Such a benefit is not afforded us in the Santorum count. This is what prompted me to say -- via tweet -- that it was put up or shut up time for the Santorum campaign. Either demonstrate -- state-by-state -- what the count is or stop pretending.² FHQ is absolutely fine with the Arizona or Florida argument. It is wrong to reallocate those delegates strictly proportionally, but that is an area I'm willing to play along with the Santorum folks. But if they want anyone to believe that the campaign is having any success in this, well, Paul-like caucus strategy, then it is time to show who the delegates are and it would help to share a line of endorsement from those delegates as well. The Santorum campaign needs fewer North Dakotas and much fewer "You'll just have to trust us, but we have almost 200 more delegates than anyone is giving us credit for" press releases. The proof is in the pudding and I don't think the Santorum folks have gotten us to that point in the meal yet. [Heck, I don't think we're seated at the table yet.]

The question is simple: If you have more delegates when are you going to share with everyone from where those delegates are?

--
The far more interesting piece of information from the Santorum delegate memo was that Texas would be moving to a winner-take-all allocation of its delegates. FHQ has a few comments on this:

1. This has come up several times since it became apparent that Texas would not be able to hold a March 6 presidential primary. The Republican Party of Texas voted in September 2011 to shift to a proportional method of allocation to comply with RNC rules. But then, due to the dispute of congressional district lines, the March primary became unfeasible. 
2. This had RPT arguing that the [proportionality] rules were set in stone prior to October 1 (the deadline for states to have rules in place according to the RNC rules) and that was that. But that had FHQ asking in December why it was not possible to argue before the RNC that circumstances out of the control of RPT forced the switch to proportionality in the first place and that with an after-April 1 primary Texas could transition back to its former delegate allocation method.
3. Of course, arguing that RPT would have an argument before the RNC is not anything that has any basis in reality in the Republican rules. There is -- as RNC Communications Director Sean Spicer pointed out -- no waiver process. That is only something that occurs on the Democratic side. The RNC delegate selection process is, as FHQ has attempted to point out, much more decentralized. Traditionally, states have had the latitude to decide how they will allocate their apportioned delegates. In 2012, that leeway was only afforded to states with contests after April 1. But just as there is no waiver process on the Republican side, there is nothing in the RNC delegate selection rules to prevent a post-October 1 change on the state level to state-level delegate rules. There is no direct penalty for such a move. Would there be a challenge to such a change at the convention (if it mattered)? Sure, but it would still be possible. Several states finalized plans after October 1, 2011. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina all moved the dates of their contests after that point. Any penalties incurred were due to the earliness of those contests and not because they had shifted the dates of their primaries or caucuses after October 1. Who else changed dates after October 1? Texas did; twice. 
4. Can RPT change to a winner-take-all method of allocation? Yes, but there apparently is not enough willingness to do so where it counts in the Lone Star state. Back at the end of February, when the state party had to finalize plans to deal with the new court-arbitrated May 29 primary date, the [State Republican Executive Committee of the] Republican Party of Texas voted down at least three resolutions to change the proportional allocation method to something else. 
5. Now there is a movement within at least some factions of the party to revert to the rules as they were before: winner-take-all. Of course, just as many thought that all the pre-April 1 states would have strictly proportional allocation, many are of the opinion that Texas will be strictly winner-take-all. To return to the rules as they were in 2008 in Texas, though, the party would be returning to a conditional system of allocation. A majority winner, either statewide or on the congressional district level, would receive all of the at-large or the three delegates per congressional district, respectively. Otherwise, everything is proportional. This is not a statewide winner-take-all delegate system like what was witnessed in Washington, DC last week (or Florida or Arizona for that matter). What that means is that Santorum would not necessarily receive all of the delegates from Texas. 
6. ...and even if Santorum did win all of the Texas delegates would it keep Romney from 1144? It would reduce his cushion some.

--
¹ From the AP's Dale Wetzel:

"The state GOP initially said delegates would be awarded in proportion to the caucus results, though the delegates would remain free to vote their conscience. If delegates were awarded proportionally, Santorum would get 11, Paul would get eight, Romney would get seven and Gingrich would get two. 

But at the state convention, Romney supporters successfully elected the most delegates — even though the former Massachusetts governor finished third in the caucuses. In interviews with the AP, 12 delegates said they backed Romney, eight supported Santorum, two favored Paul and one preferred Gingrich. Two delegates said they had no favorite. 

Rounding out North Dakota's 28 delegates are three members of the Republican National Committee who will automatically attend the convention. Among them, Sandy Boehler supports Romney while Curly Haugland and Stan Stein, the state GOP chairman, are uncommitted. 

The delegates said they plan to meet prior to the national convention to decide how they will vote with the idea that they would divvy up votes to reflect the results of the caucuses."

² This prompted Jon Bernstein to respond that it was the campaign's job to pretend. And I totally agree. It is the Santorum campaign's right to pretend. However (and this is where so many conversations between political scientists end up), I would argue that there are degrees of pretending and the Santorum folks do themselves no favors by not presenting even one shred of evidence that they have any more delegates than the press gives them credit for. [I genuinely hope that Jon comes back at this with a reference to the Seinfeld episode where Elaine and the Eastern European author are arguing in an elevator about whether there are "just coincidences" or if there are degrees of coincidences.] If Santorum campaign wants to push back against the AP projection, it isn't had to do, but do it by producing at least one, say, Missouri congressional district delegate who is supporting Santorum or at least one more than the AP is attributing to Santorum.

Recent Posts:
Race to 1144: MD, DC & WI Primaries

2012 Republican Delegate Allocation: Maryland

2012 Republican Delegate Allocation: Washington, DC

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Race to 1144: MD, DC & WI Primaries

Source:
Contest Delegates (via contest results and rules, and RNC, Georgia Secretary of State)
Automatic Delegates (Democratic Convention Watch)

Delegate breakdown (post-MD, DC & WI):

Changes since Louisiana (3/24/12):

• Romney: +92 delegates (Maryland: +37, Washington, DC: +16, Wisconsin: +33, North Dakota: +5, Tennessee: +1)
• Santorum: +10 delegates (Wisconsin: +9, North Dakota: +1)
• Gingrich: -1 delegate (Tennessee: -1)

Notes:
1) Mitt Romney won all of the at-large and automatic delegates in both Maryland and Wisconsin, all eight congressional districts in Maryland, five of eight districts in Wisconsin and all of the at-large delegates from DC. Rick Santorum won the remaining three congressional districts in Wisconsin.

2) Of the slate of 25 delegates selected at the North Dakota Republican state convention on March 31, five are pledged Romney supporters and one is a known Santorum advocate.

3) The Tennessee Republican Party finalized the congressional district vote count and delegate allocation this week. The effects were minimal. One delegate shifted from Newt Gingrich's total in Tennessee to Mitt Romney's column.

4) The allocation of the delegates in Georgia is based on the most recent vote returns published online by the office of the Georgia Secretary of State. The allocation here differs from the RNC allocation in Georgia. The above grants Gingrich one additional delegate (which has been taken from Romney's total). ***UPDATE*** Due to the way the Georgia Republican Party rounds fractional delegates, the FHQ count was off by one delegate (+Romney/-Gingrich). The congressional district count is unaffected (Gingrich 31, Romney, 8 and Santorum 3), but the way the at-large delegates are allocated to Gingrich and Romney -- the only candidates over 20% statewide -- is a bit quirky. Gingrich's portion of the vote would have entitled him to 14.6 delegates and Romney's 8.0. Under Georgia Republican rules, Gingrich is given 14 delegates and Romney 8. That leaves nine delegates unclaimed because the remaining candidates did not clear the 20% threshold. The candidate with the highest "remainder" is awarded the first delegate and the candidates over 20% trade turns until all of those delegates are allocated. Remember, Gingrich did not round up to 15 delegates (14.6), but that 0.6 gives him a larger "remainder" than Romney. The former speaker, then, is allocated the first of nine delegates. With an odd number of delegates leftover, Gingrich would have a fifth turn after Romney's fourth and that would end the allocation of those "extra" delegates. Gingrich would claim five to Romney's four. Of the 31 at-large delegates, Gingrich is allocated 19 and Romney 12. Please note that for winning the statewide vote, Gingrich is allocated the three automatic delegates. That makes the final allocation Gingrich 53, Romney 20 and Santorum 3.

5) The Alabama primary results by congressional district have not been released by the Alabama Republican Party. The allocation above is based on the RNC interpretation of the allocation.

6)  Iowa Republican Party Chairman Spiker was a part of the Paul campaign in Iowa and resigned his position upon taking up the post of party chair. While he has expressed his intent to side with whomever the Republican nominee will be, Spiker has not also directly signaled any neutrality in the race. The door is open for his support of Paul at a potential contested convention. While FHQ includes Spiker in Paul's delegate total, it is necessary to make note of the possible future subtraction of one delegate that would bring the Texas congressman's total to 26.

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