Wednesday, September 26, 2012

The Electoral College Map (9/26/12)

Nine new surveys were released in seven states on Wednesday. In a slew of already blue states -- of varying levels -- the data either confirmed or increased President Obama's preexisting leads heading into the day. Of the most consequence was the fact that wider polling margins in the toss up state represented -- Colorado, Florida, Iowa and Ohio -- increased the FHQ weighted averages in each.

New State Polls (9/26/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Colorado
9/21-9/22
+/- 3.4%
765 likely voters
50.2
45.5
4.3
+4.7
+2.76
Florida
9/18-9/24
+/- 3.0%
1196 likely voters
53
44
3
+9
+1.26
Florida
9/24
+/- 4.0%
540 likely voters
49
46
4
+3
--
Iowa
9/24-9/26
+/- 3.6%
754 likely voters
51
44
5
+7
+3.26
Maryland
9/17-9/23
+/- 3.5%
813 likely voters
55
36
8
+19
+20.23
Massachusetts
9/24
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
55
40
2
+15
+19.50
Ohio
9/18-9/24
+/- 3.0%
1162 likely voters
53
43
3
+10
+3.66
Pennsylvania
9/18-9/23
+/- 4.9%
392 likely voters
52
43
3
+9
+7.25
Pennsylvania
9/18-9/24
+/- 3.0%
1180 likely voters
54
42
2
+12
--

Polling Quick Hits:
Colorado:
Of the ten post-convention polls conducted in the Centennial state, the president has been under the 48% level of support in only two and above the 50% level in half of the remaining eight surveys. The latest Gravis poll was among that group of four polls and has contributed to the growing spread between the candidates in Colorado. Governor Romney continues to hover right around 45% in most polls while the president has gradually pushed into the upper 40s.

Florida:
As was the case with Nevada and Ohio a day ago, the two polls released in Florida today disagree with one another. Both point in the same direction, but one -- Insider Advantage -- is within the range of polls released of late while the other -- Q-poll -- is a bit outside of what we have come to expect in Sunshine state polls. That is more attributable to the Obama share of support -- 6 points greater than where the FHQ weighted average has the president's support pegged -- than it does Romney's. The governor is right around his weighted average level of support in this Q-poll.  The Insider Advantage poll is a different story; very close to where FHQ has the race for Florida's 29 electoral votes.

Iowa:
The uptick in polling frequency in the Hawkeye state since the conventions has the average in Iowa moving in one direction: toward the president. Not only has the margin in Florida stretched, but so too has the gap in Iowa. Already having overtaken Colorado on the Electoral College Spectrum below, Iowa's average margin has grow to the point that it has now settled just behind Ohio having passed Virginia as well. Of the five post-convention polls that have been in the field in Iowa, three of them have found Obama north of the 50% mark. Only one other has found the president below the 48% level. Governor Romney, meanwhile, has carved out a position in the mid-40s.

Maryland:
The data out of Maryland is great, but it isn't doing a whole lot more than confirming what we already knew in the Old Line state. It is and will continue to be safely in Obama's column between now and election day.

Massachusetts:
Well, the senate race continues to provide presidential poll watchers with a surplus of data in the Bay state. Unlike the senate race between Brown and Warren, the presidential race is not close. It has, not surprisingly, remained consistently blue.

Ohio:
Another day and another broad polling margin in the Buckeye state. Like the Florida Q poll, this Q poll in Ohio seems to be pushing the envelope. There is, however, more similar data to back up this +10 Obama lead than there was in Florida. But the same phenomenon is at work in Ohio as was in the Sunshine state. What is driving the growth in the margin is an increase in the Obama share of support. Romney's share in this Q poll is right in line with where the FHQ averages have it.

Pennsylvania:
There is not all that much to say about Pennsylvania. The two new polls have the Keystone state exactly where it has been all along: in the Lean Obama category. That said, the Pennsylvania Q poll is fairly consistent with the other two polls from the firm released in Florida and Ohio. There are two silver lining interpretations of that; one for each candidate. The Romney silver lining is that if these polls are right, then Pennsylvania seems to be moving along with Florida and Ohio (that the latter two are outliers). From the president's perspective, this may be evidence that Ohio is closer to Pennsylvania than Florida and that the Sunshine state by extension is an outlier. These are, after all, snapshots, but the closeness of the results across the three states is worth noting.


Despite a series of new surveys from several swing states, there just was not that much action on the map or on the Electoral College Spectrum below. The map is unchanged versus yesterday and the most noteworthy change on the Spectrum is that Iowa jumped past Virginia. Illinois and Massachusetts flipped spots as well.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
WA-12
(158)
NH-4
(257)
MO-10
(166)
ND-3
(55)
RI-4
(10)
NJ-14
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
IN-11
(156)
KY-8
(52)
NY-29
(39)
CT-7
(179)
IA-6
(281/263)
MT-3
(145)
AL-9
(44)
HI-4
(43)
NM-5
(184)
VA-13
(294/257)
GA-16
(142)
KS-6
(35)
MD-10
(53)
MN-10
(194)
CO-9
(303/244)
SC-9
(126)
AR-6
(29)
IL-20
(73)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
TX-38
(117)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(84)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
LA-8
(79)
OK-7
(20)
CA-55
(139)
MI-16
(237)
SD-3
(191)
NE-5
(71)
ID-4
(13)
ME-4
(143)
WI-10
(247)
AZ-11
(188)
WV-5
(66)
WY-3
(9)
DE-3
(146)
NV-6
(253)
TN-11
(177)
MS-6
(61)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

Noteworthy in the shift to the Watch List is that Florida dropped off, having pushed past the 1% level in the averages into the Toss Up Obama area. The Sunshine state is still very much competitive, but that it is moving toward Obama and not Romney puts the former Massachusetts governor in a decided strategic bind. Without those 29 electoral votes, Romney faces a very steep climb indeed to 270.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Michigan
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
Minnesota
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Montana
from Lean Romney
to Strong Romney
Nevada
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Mexico
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Nevada, for example, is close to being a Lean Obama state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:


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Tuesday, September 25, 2012

The Electoral College Map (9/25/12)

Compared to last Tuesday, this one was light in terms of the polling traffic. There were seven new polls  from five states and the take home message seems to be that Obama is consequentially stretching his leads in some of the toss up states.

...but with some caveats.

New State Polls (9/25/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Arkansas
9/17
+/- 2.0%
2228 likely voters
34.5
55.5
7
+21
+21.73
Florida
9/19-9/23
+/- 4.5%
769 likely voters
51
47
1
+4
+0.99
Nevada
9/18-9/20
+/- 4.4%
501 likely voters
52
43
5
+9
+4.60
Nevada
9/19-9/20
+/- 4.4%
500 likely voters
46
46
2
0
--
New Jersey
9/19-9/23
+/- 4.0%
613 likely voters
52
37
10
+15
+12.81
Ohio
9/21-9/22
+/- 4.3%
594 likely voters
45
44
10
+1
+3.44
Ohio
9/19-9/23
+/- 4.5%
759 likely voters
52
44
2
+8
--

Polling Quick Hits:
Arkansas:
Well, if there is an antithesis to the statement that Obama is stretching his leads, Arkansas is it; quick with a rebuttal. Then again, the Natural state has never been viewed as one of the more hospitable states for the president. In fact, statewide, it was one of the few states that became redder in 2008 as compared to 2004 when most of the rest of the country was swinging to the left. It wasn't that long ago that Democrats were competitive on the presidential level in Arkansas. Clinton obviously did quite well in his home state, but both Gore and Kerry kept it in the ballpark. Obama didn't in 2008 and doesn't look to be improving on his showing there in 2012.

Florida:
FHQ does not want to frontload the comments reserved for Nevada and Ohio, but some of it applies to Florida as well. The Washington Post poll is an example of Obama stretching his lead on the state level. Sure, there have been +4 Obama survey results, but that type of spread is becoming more commonplace  post-convention. That has taken the FHQ weighted average -- at one point just +0.04 Obama -- and widened it nearly to the point of coming off of the Watch List. As we have said many times in this space, it is the consistency of the polls that has to be the most troubling to the Romney campaign.

Nevada:
Both Nevada and Ohio had a couple of polls released today and the picture was largely the same. Intra-state the two polls cancelled each other out. While one seemed to point toward Obama increasing his advantage, the other showed a much tighter (or tied) race. In the case of Nevada, there have been six polls conducted and released in the time since the conventions. Three have shown an Obama lead of seven points or more and the other three have indicated a race that is close to if not within the margin of error (for many of these polls) at three points or less. Part of that is simple polling variability. But part of it is also the fact that the greater than seven point polls just weren't there before; not in as great a number anyway. After seeing the gap close in Nevada to the point that it almost slipped off the Watch List deeper into the Toss Up category, the FHQ weighed average has begun to climb again toward the Lean Obama category.

New Jersey:
New Jersey is like Pennsylvania only slightly bluer. The numbers continue to come in rather consistently in the low double digits. The Garden state simply is not competitive this time around as it has occasionally threatened to be in the not too distant past.

Ohio:
See Nevada, but with the caveat that there are comparatively more polls in Ohio. There have been eleven post-convention polls conducted in Ohio. The president has led all eleven of them, but has led six of them by four or more points (five by more than 5 points) and held the advantage in the remaining five polls by three points or less. In the Buckeye state, as was the case in Nevada, the weighted average has begun to climb, but only slightly and always between three and four points. The slow move is attributable to both the number of overall polls and just how great the leads are in the president's favor. That said the trajectory that the Ohio average is on is pushing it ever closer to the Watch List, only not in a direction that would not bring it closer to Romney. Instead, the average is moving closer to the Lean Obama area.


Nothing changed on the map today, much less the overall tally of electoral college votes. The same is true on the Electoral College Spectrum as well. Outside of the new polling data in Arkansas pushing the Natural state much deeper into the Strong Romney category -- into the far right column -- all of the other states where new data was introduced held their positions. This election still very much hinges on that small group of states in lighter shades of blue or red and maybe Wisconsin. The playing field is very narrow and the margin of error for the challenger is very small indeed.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
WA-12
(158)
NH-4
(257)
MO-10
(166)
ND-3
(55)
RI-4
(10)
NJ-14
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
IN-11
(156)
KY-8
(52)
NY-29
(39)
CT-7
(179)
VA-13
(288/263)
MT-3
(145)
AL-9
(44)
HI-4
(43)
NM-5
(184)
IA-6
(294/250)
GA-16
(142)
KS-6
(35)
MD-10
(53)
MN-10
(194)
CO-9
(303/244)
SC-9
(126)
AR-6
(29)
MA-11
(64)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
TX-38
(117)
AK-3
(23)
IL-20
(84)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
LA-8
(79)
OK-7
(20)
CA-55
(139)
MI-16
(237)
SD-3
(191)
NE-5
(71)
ID-4
(13)
ME-4
(143)
WI-10
(247)
AZ-11
(188)
WV-5
(66)
WY-3
(9)
DE-3
(146)
NV-6
(253)
TN-11
(177)
MS-6
(61)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Watch List remains the same as it was a day ago, but with the footnote that Florida is within one one-hundredth of a point of coming off the list; ending up deeper into the Toss Up Obama category. Similarly, Nevada is making a push, after contracting some, toward the Lean Obama category. Both continue to be on the list for now, however.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Michigan
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
Minnesota
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Montana
from Lean Romney
to Strong Romney
Nevada
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Mexico
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Nevada, for example, is close to being a Lean Obama state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:


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Monday, September 24, 2012

The Electoral College Map (9/24/12)

The dawn of a new week brought ten more polls from ten states. With the exception of Montana, all were either toss ups or states in the Lean Obama range. Excepting North Carolina, all of the toss up states with newly released polls saw lean level poll margins. In other words, in each case where Obama led in a toss up state, he also witnessed growth in support above what has been established in those states. In addition and at least somewhat importantly, Obama also crested above the 50% mark in those polls and was on the precipice of that break-even threshold in North Carolina.

New State Polls (9/24/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Colorado
9/20-9/23
+/- 3.2%
940 likely voters
51
45
4
+6
+2.66
Florida
9/20-9/22
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
50
45
4
+5
+0.90
Iowa
9/20-9/23
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
51
44
4
+7
+2.83
Michigan
9/20
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
54
42
3
+12
+5.86
Minnesota
9/17-9/19
+/- 3.5%
800 likely voters
48
40
7
+8
+9.22
Montana
9/17-9/19
+/- 4.0%
625 likely voters
42
51
5
+9
+9.01
Nevada
9/20-9/23
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
51
44
4
+7
+4.62
North Carolina
9/18-9/19
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
49
45
2
+4
+1.06
Pennsylvania
9/12-9/20
+/- 4.29%
522 likely voters
48
40
7
+8
+6.93
Wisconsin
9/20-9/23
+/- 2.8%
1238 likely voters
53
41
5
+12
+5.19

Polling Quick Hits:
Colorado:
Obama has been at or above 50% in Colorado previously, but compared to the overall state of the race in the Centennial state, that level of support is running a bit above Obama's FHQ weighted average support there. Romney, however, in the mid-40s, is performing up to the preexisting expectations.

Florida:
As in Colorado, Obama is outperforming his FHQ weighted average any time he is at or over 50% in a poll. Surpassing the 50% barrier is a less frequent occurrence in Florida, though. Romney, meanwhile, is similarly stuck in the mid-40s in this ARG poll in Florida just as was the case in Colorado.

Iowa:
Iowa is another toss up state with Obama breaking 50% in today's poll, and the story is the same as it was in Florida and Colorado (albeit with fewer overall polls and slightly more variability in the averages as a result). There is -- simply put -- a real need for increased polling in the Hawkeye state. Iowa is underpolled and has gone back and forth between the candidates all summer with the balance consistently tipping in the president's direction.

Michigan:
Rare are the double digit advantages in Michigan, yet here we are in late-September and Obama holds a twelve point lead in the latest Rasmussen poll of the Great Lakes state. This one definitely has all the markings -- absent other similar data -- of an outlier built on an incumbent exceeding the level of polling support witnessed in earlier polls. Romney, again, is right in line with where he has been all along in his home state.

Minnesota:
There could be some more polling in Minnesota, but the the Land of 10,000 Lakes has seemingly settled into a position around the Strong/Lean line on the Obama side of the ledger and that has been reflected in this and other polling in the state. Of the Lean troika that includes neighbors Wisconsin and Michigan, Minnesota has been slightly more Democratic-leaning overall.

Montana:
Mason Dixon kind of nailed it on this one. Well, they nailed it if FHQ's weighted averages are in anyway reflective of the true nature of the race. The poll margin and the FHQ average are nearly equivalent. And that is a nice way of saying something about Montana. It is in the Lean Romney category and is deep enough in to be well outside of the president's reach. While some states have not swung back with the hypothetical uniform swing nationally (North Carolina and Ohio), Montana has, moving from a state on the periphery of being competitive in 2008 to not competitive at all on the presidential level in 2012.

Nevada:
The song remains the same in Nevada in that Obama, as in several states above, is over 50% support in the latest ARG survey. The president has had similar snapshots in the Silver state in 2012, but the preponderance of the data has suggested that this poll is on the high side concerning Obama's level of support. Mitt Romney, on the other hand, is right in line with where he has been in the state.

North Carolina:
Obama turns in another September lead in North Carolina and shows a 14 point gain over the last Civitas poll in the state to boot. North Carolina is not at all necessary to Obama in getting to 270 electoral votes, but being able to make Romney play defense in the Tar Heel state instead of offense elsewhere is a huge strategic advantage for the president.

Pennsylvania:
Meh. Pennsylvania is a Lean Obama state where neither campaign is playing. Need I say more? I don't think so. The new Mercyhurst poll merely confirms what we already knew about the Keystone state.

Wisconsin:
Changes (September 24)
StateBeforeAfter
WisconsinToss Up ObamaLean Obama
In lean again, toss up again Wisconsin, the averages have slipped back over into Lean territory. Of course, that was driven in large part by a double digit margin pushing the Badger state over the line into the Lean category, but not by much. Wisconsin is still very much a state between categories.


Wisconsin pads the Lean Obama category for the moment. That shifts the 10 electoral votes from the Badger state there as well, but doesn't move the state on the Spectrum below. Though it may or may not be of any great import, Iowa and Colorado also switched places in the middle column below. The two states were moving toward converging of late, but they are now heading in separate directions: the margin in Colorado contracting while Iowa pushes toward the Ohio/Virginia group.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
WA-12
(158)
NH-4
(257)
MO-10
(166)
MS-6
(55)
RI-4
(10)
NJ-14
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
IN-11
(156)
ND-3
(49)
NY-29
(39)
CT-7
(179)
VA-13
(288/263)
MT-3
(145)
KY-8
(46)
HI-4
(43)
NM-5
(184)
IA-6
(294/250)
GA-16
(142)
AL-9
(38)
MD-10
(53)
MN-10
(194)
CO-9
(303/244)
SC-9
(126)
KS-6
(29)
MA-11
(64)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
TX-38
(117)
AK-3
(23)
IL-20
(84)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
LA-8
(79)
OK-7
(20)
CA-55
(139)
MI-16
(237)
SD-3
(191)
NE-5
(71)
ID-4
(13)
ME-4
(143)
WI-10
(247)
AZ-11
(188)
AR-6
(66)
WY-3
(9)
DE-3
(146)
NV-6
(253)
TN-11
(177)
WV-5
(60)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Watch List? Well, nothing to see here. Everything is the same as it was yesterday. It is all about Florida and then the Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin group. Those are still the states most worth watching for new polls.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Michigan
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
Minnesota
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Montana
from Lean Romney
to Strong Romney
Nevada
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Mexico
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Nevada, for example, is close to being a Lean Obama state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:


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