Let's Talk About Iowa

If there is one thing that can pull FHQ out of a posting hiatus that has lasted more than a year, then it is a potential shake up to the presidential primary calendar. So here we go. 

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In recent weeks there has been renewed chatter surrounding Iowa's continued presence not only among the early presidential primary and caucus states but at the front of the queue within the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination process. This is nothing new. It happens in some way, shape or form every cycle within one or both of the two major parties. Yet, some cycles see a much more muted, almost perfunctory discussion. 

This is not one of those cycles. 

Some within the broader Democratic Party network have raised legitimate concerns about how well aligned Iowa, much less its smaller caucusing electorate, is with the increasingly diversifying Democratic Party. And folks were saying those things before the Democratic caucus debacle in the Hawkeye state in 2020. With that added layer, Iowa quickly came back into the crosshairs and has not really left.

The sentiment remained in some quarters of the broader party to do something about Iowa, but the process had not caught up with it. Unlike in cycles when there is clearly an open Democratic presidential nomination process (or after a very competitive one), the Democratic National Committee has had no commission to deal with any real or perceived issues from the previous cycle ahead of 2024. It is that very sort of commission that in the past would have considered (or reconsidered) the pre-window early states on the calendar in the year immediately following the presidential election. Its recommendations, if any, would then be handed off to the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee (DNCRBC) for its consideration during the first two-thirds of the midterm election year. 

That is where the process is now (sans preceding commission dedicated to some real or perceived nomination problem). Sure, there were Iowa and process discussions in 2021, but not to the degree that they would have been had there been a commission. Still, all of this is currently occurring well within the regular rhythms of the national Democratic Party rules-making process. 

So, what is the DNCRBC considering with respect to Iowa and the 2024 presidential primary calendar now that it has entered into one of its intra-cycle busy seasons? 

It is multifaceted, but as has been reported since the DNCRBC met at the winter DNC meeting in Washington, DC in early March, there is a proposed framework that would require the four traditionally early states -- Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina -- to make the case before the committee as to why they should retain those positions. The proposed draft framework also describes the the criteria by which the DNCRBC would evaluate those waivers requests; placing particular emphasis on diversity (racial, geographic, unionization, etc.), primaries over caucuses, competitiveness in the general election and feasibility of holding an early contest. And this is not exactly about putting Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina under the microscope. The intent is to open the waivers process up to all states and territories. But the natural reaction has been to deem the whole thing the opening salvo in the demise of the Iowa caucuses at the head of the Democratic presidential nomination line. 

Again, that is a natural reaction. Iowa may check a geographic diversity box. It is (rural and) the midwestern representative among the traditional early four states. But it is not nearly as racially diverse as the broader Democratic Party, has caucuses (written into and protected by state law) and not a primary and is decreasingly competitive (and favoring Republicans) in presidential general elections. However, Hawkeye state Democrats retain an important building block in any of these discussions: it has for half a century now and can reasonably hold an early contest.

But in any resulting cost/benefit analysis, the odds seem stacked against Iowa and its Democratic caucuses. In fact, at the the March 28 virtual DNCRBC meeting, every member who spoke, spoke in favor of the working draft resolution. Granted, the word Iowa was never uttered, but its position was was hinted at a number of times by members who strongly advocated for more diversity in the pre-window period (Maria Cardona, Mo Elleithee, etc.) and others who echoed points raised in recent discussions in public meetings about the Democratic Party not being beholden to tradition or as member Leah Daughtry said in the latest virtual meeting, "a calendar from 50 years ago." That is all very hint, hint, nudge, nudge. Ahem, Iowa.

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But let's take a step back now that the resolution opening up the process has passed and 20 states and territories (including all four traditionally early states) have filed petitions for waivers to hold contests in the pre-window period with the DNCRBC and look at this from a different perspective, one that does not instantly veer off into "Iowa's doomed!" territory.

And to be honest, I'm almost surprised I haven't seen this cynically posted in some dark corner of social media somewhere. That cynical spin would go something like this: "Well, the DNC is talking about shaking up the early presidential primary calendar, but they ultimately won't do anything." And that would inevitably be followed with something about the establishment DNC working to maintain the status quo. Look, that may be out there and I missed it. [Sometimes those repeated arguments levied almost as an involuntary reaction no matter the problem get monotonous. And yes, some may say the same thing about some of the arguments I've made in this space for more than a decade and a half.]  

To even potentially make that assumption -- that all the DNCRBC is doing now is paying lip service to possible calendar change -- misses the point of what the DNCRBC has actually done in 2022. Iowa's caucuses may end up back at the front of the line, but the Democrats in the state will have had to work harder and to start that work in earnest earlier than they done in most past cycles. 

Here is what I mean. In most recent cycles, Iowa Democrats would not have to have anything formally assemble anything for the next cycle until putting a draft delegate selection plan out for public comment. And that typically occurs in the spring following the midterm election before formal proposals are due to the DNCRBC for review at the beginning part of May. In the context of the 2024 cycle, the normal procedure would maybe have Iowa Democrats talking about change at this point in the cycle -- and maybe even about significant changes -- but it would not necessarily have the urgency as it does in right now in 2022 given the direction the DNCRBC has taken things with the recent passage of its resolution. 

Of course, there was going to be urgency for Iowa Democrats after 2020 anyway, but the DNCRBC has manufactured additional external pressure by 1) making the four traditionally early states petition for waivers (rather than entering a new cycle with them mostly assuming things would carry over as they have done during the post-reform era and especially since the period after 2008), and 2) making them compete with other states for one of up to five early slots on the calendar.

Iowa Democrats now have to have something while not necessarily formal to present to the DNCRBC this summer, something that is nonetheless concrete with respect to how the state party is going to remedy the issues of 2020 and meet the new criteria laid out by the committee. That is within the next month or so and not by early May of next year as has been routine in the Democratic process. That is no small thing. 

The addition of that simple bureaucratic step in the process may indeed yield the same early primary calendar slate, but it has created a real set of incentives that very well may lead to real changes that move the same early states closer to broadly shared party goals. No, if Iowa and the remainder of the early four states hold their positions for 2024, that will not do much to further the work of the Price commission (which added Nevada and South Carolina to the early states for the 2008 cycle) in terms of diversity, but it would likely push things toward another DNC goal that has arisen in the time since: increased participation. Iowa Democrats may call their contest a caucus in 2024, but it will have to function at the very least like something akin to what Iowa Republicans do or move to something that is more primary-like in some ways to better accommodate increased participation. Because the gathering/caucusing and realigning (not to mention the use of state delegate equivalents) may very well (have to) be a thing of the past in the Iowa Democratic delegate selection process at this point. 

Look, this is not a post where I am arguing for Iowa's continued inclusion as the lead-off state in the Democratic process. There are a number of recent (and lengthy) Twitter threads where I have offered some ways in which Iowa Democrats could change their process (and to place into context the extent to which Iowa results are discounted in the Democratic presidential nomination process anyway). Instead, this post is intended to point out the changes the DNCRBC has already put in place. Even if the beginning of the calendar remains the very same as it has by rule since 2008, the added step is potentially significantly beneficial with respect to changes in the direction of broader party goals. 

And besides, the 2024 presidential primary calendar is not going to remain the same anyway. The DNCRBC has kind of quietly accounted for that already. Even if this new process yields the same four states in the pre-window, the committee still has the option of upping their number to five. That is not a cop out on the part of the committee. While simply adding a fifth state would potentially provide a very concrete example of change, the process of upping the ante on the traditionally early four states should also lead to positive examples of changes in their state-level processes. 

Part of the 2024 calendar may look the same at the beginning, then, but at least part of it is likely to change. 

Recent posts:

FHQ Turns 14

Oregon Bill Would Shift Presidential Primary to Super Tuesday

Circling of the Wagons for First-in-the-Nation in New Hampshire

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See more on our political/electoral consulting venture at FHQ Strategies.   

FHQ Turns 14

Today marks the beginning of FHQ's 15th year. Like any other period of time, it has been a span that has seen both ups and downs, none more challenging than this last year. But that is nothing unique to FHQ. We have all in various ways been pushed since the start of this pandemic.

They were humble beginnings. For a site that started out as nothing more than an attempt to gather information about how the 2008 presidential primary calendar was forming and share it as part of the (anecdotal) data gathering process for a doctoral dissertation, FHQ blossomed into something else. Over the years we have brought in many advocates and allies (and detractors too, I am sure), Democrats and Republicans, academics, practitioners and lay person alike with a simple goal: to inform the public about the complex process that both parties use to nominate presidential candidates and how that process has changed. 

Each hour, day, week, month spent during these last 14 years aiming for that goal have been extremely rewarding, but I want to close with a simple thank you to those of you new and old who have taken the time to read and take part in the conversations begun and continued here and on social media. So thank you. Thank you for being a part of this endeavor. I look forward to what the next year of FHQ brings.

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Josh

Recent posts:

Oregon Bill Would Shift Presidential Primary to Super Tuesday

Circling of the Wagons for First-in-the-Nation in New Hampshire

From Where Will the 2024 Delegate Rules Changes Come?

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

See more on our political/electoral consulting venture at FHQ Strategies.     

Oregon Bill Would Shift Presidential Primary to Super Tuesday

Legislation introduced earlier this month in Oregon would push the Beaver state's typical mid-May primary up to the first Tuesday in March.

SB 785, authored by Sen. Lee Beyer (D-6th, Springfield) resembles in part a bill from the last legislative session in 2019 which would have similarly moved the presidential primary up to Super Tuesday. However, the 2021 bill would move the entire consolidated primary -- including those for other offices -- into March in presidential election years only. The measure would additionally shift back the date on which the legislative session would commence in those years from February to May. The latter change also differs from the 2019 bill and saves state legislators from campaigning or raising money during the legislative session.

While that issue was not raised in the public hearing for the failed 2019 Super Tuesday bill, it was among the shortcomings of the legislation. The committee that heard the testimony on that bill also balked at the costs of a separate presidential primary and the impact it would have on election administrators. 

SB 785 addresses those issues, but it remains to be seen whether it will be any more successful than its predecessor was. Neighboring states all hold March or earlier contests, but the year after a presidential election is not a time when this type of legislation tends to move. But it would align Oregon with its neighbors if signed into law.

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A link to this legislation will be added to the 2024 FHQ presidential primary calendar.

Recent posts:

Circling of the Wagons for First-in-the-Nation in New Hampshire

From Where Will the 2024 Delegate Rules Changes Come?

The Nevada State Democratic Party Shake Up and 2024

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

See more on our political/electoral consulting venture at FHQ Strategies.     

Circling of the Wagons for First-in-the-Nation in New Hampshire

One hesitates to suggest that the process is beginning, but political actors in New Hampshire are continuing the process of defending the Granite state's first-in-the-nation presidential primary for the 2024 cycle. Typically one of the few bipartisan items in some of the early calendar states is that the state parties are on the same page when it comes to preserving their early and privileged positions on the presidential primary calendar. 

That is why it has been so notable that there has not been unity on the topic in Iowa across parties much less within the Democratic Party of Iowa in particular. But in New Hampshire, how the state plays the game of primary defense is a bit different. For all of the talk of the state parties and what they may do in maintaining the status quo, the decision on the presidential primary date ultimately lies with Secretary of State Bill Gardner (D). State law places the presidential primary date-setting power squarely in Gardner's domain and he has been adept over the last nearly half century in waiting out all challengers and scheduling the Granite state primary at the front of the queue. 

But that does not mean that the state parties in New Hampshire have no recourse, no role to play. While Gardner has probably the most effective tool at his disposal, it is one that is typically wielded late in the invisible primary process. The state parties, on the other hand, fill a void earlier in the that sequence, serving as liaisons to the national parties. That process is happening anew for 2024 now. And to the extent the two state parties can act in concert (with respect to presidential primary positioning), the better the united front message will potentially play with the national parties, the player in all of this that crafts and sets the rules that guide the nomination process and how the states and state parties act within it. 

So, whereas Iowa may not be presenting the usual united front, it looks as if feelers are being sent out between the parties in New Hampshire in order to save first-in-the-nation status there for another cycle. At-large DNC member, Joanne Dowdell (NH) recently pledged to work with and within the DNC and with Granite state Republicans to keep the status quo as it has been for more than a century in New Hampshire. 

But there is a process to all of that. And although Dowdell in an address to the New Hampshire Democratic Party state committee recently noted that new DNC chair, Jaime Harrison, will choose members for the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee who will be ratified in a September national party meeting, that is not where the calendar machination begin for 2024. In fact, they began remotely coming out of the 2020 Democratic National Convention last August. It was there that a report on the 2020 nomination process was commissioned. And that report is due at the end of March. 

That report is likely key for how New Hampshire (and Iowa for that matter) will approach any attempted defense of their status for 2024. If the report calls for change at the beginning of the calendar in an effort to diversify the early calendar electorate to bring it more in line with the Democratic primary electorate, then the approach will be different than if the report is silent on the matter. New Hampshire (and Iowa) would react differently based on that. Representatives on the DNC from those states would interact differently with their fellow DNC members on the DNCRBC. Now yes, Chair Harrison does have some latitude with respect to who gets named to the RBC, but that is a second order concern at this point behind that 2020 autopsy. Membership on the RBC matters -- and Iowa and New Hampshire will have representation there -- but it will be colored by the forthcoming report.

For now, however, that New Hampshirites of both parties are continuing to band together in defense of first-in-the-nation status is not as surprising as it is typical. But it contrasts with what is happening in Iowa for now.

Recent posts:

From Where Will the 2024 Delegate Rules Changes Come?

The Nevada State Democratic Party Shake Up and 2024

2020 Presidential Primary and Caucus Movement (Pre-pandemic)

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See more on our political/electoral consulting venture at FHQ Strategies.     

From Where Will the 2024 Delegate Rules Changes Come?

A few weeks back FHQ pulled back the curtain on the baseline set of rules the Republican National Committee has to work from as the 2024 presidential nomination cycle continues to evolve. But with that hanging out there and a report on the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination process due by the end of the month, it is fair to ask from where future rules changes will emanate. 

Among the most basic layers here is to consider the parties that typically tinker with their rules as a new nomination process approaches. Despite all the rumblings about Democratic rules changes that may stem from the national party's upcoming autopsy, it tends to be parties out of the White House that maneuver within their rules as a means of attempting to recapture the presidency. Now, it is debatable just how effective that is, but out-parties routinely make rules changes that it hopes will streamline the process and/or produce a nominee well-positioned to take on an incumbent in the opposition party. Although they were not rules changes, per se, the 2013 Growth and Opportunity Project report the Republican Party produced made broad recommendations about the direction of the party but also included a section on rules changes aimed at shrinking the window in which primaries and caucuses could occur on the calendar among other things. Many of those rules recommendations were instituted by the Republican National Committee while the party went the other way in the lead up to and after the 2016 election on a number of the other recommendations. 

By that measure, then, 2024 starts somewhat off-kilter. Again, it is early, but the rumblings about delegate selection rules changes are on the in-party side of the equation. Discussions about replacing Iowa and/or New Hampshire at the front fo the 2024 presidential primary calendar or completely replacing caucuses with primaries abound among the broader Democratic Party coalition and within the commentariat. 

But much of that difference -- the in-party versus out-party dynamic -- early in the 2024 may largely be a function of the priorities of both parties. The wishlist for changes to the Democratic presidential nomination system is mostly a continuation -- an extension -- of the work completed ahead of the 2020 process. Through that lens, adding diversity to the beginning of the calendar or expanding participation by valuing primaries over caucuses is just finishing the work started in 2017-2018. 

Yet, that begs the question: what are the (out-party) Republicans up to? 

Thus far, it has been all quiet on the western front from the Grand Old Party. However, it should be repeated that the priorities there are different than for Democrats. Replacing Iowa and New Hampshire does not appear to be as important nor does the caucus to primary shift (despite some chatter in 2018 about an incentive structure to facilitate such a change). But what are the 2024 priorities for Republicans? If consensus can be built among decision makers in the national party about what type of nominee the party wants, then there may be some more extensive tinkering than there was during Trump's 2020 nomination defense. That consensus may not come or may not be easy to come by as candidates and their proxies in power within the Republican National Committee jockey for position during the 2024 invisible primary. 

And like the 2020 platform, the national rules on the Republican side may very well carry over as is (or with minor corrections to reflect the change in cycle) to the 2024 cycle. Of course, that does not mean that there will not be rules changes for 2024 for the Republican process. It just means that it may not be coming from the national party. Instead, it may be the states and state parties where those changes take shape under the guidance of the national party rules. Although it has waned during recent cycles, Republican state parties still have more latitude to craft their own delegate selection and allocation processes under national party rules than do their Democratic state party counterparts. There very simply are fewer mandates from the national level on Republican state parties. 

Even in that scenario, however, state parties are still limited in what they can do. State governments in primary states are responsible for altering the date of the contest, but state parties do have some discretion on how to allocate delegates to candidates based on the results of primaries and caucuses. And that could be where there is some movement on the Republican rules in 2023. Yet, if there is enough of a groundswell from the state parties up to the Republican National Committee to expand or revert those allocation rules to pre-2012 levels, then there could be some push to end the use of the proportionality window at the beginning of the calendar, requiring states to allocate delegates in a proportional manner during the first half of March. 

For now, however, all of this is speculative. The relative silence on the Republican side has made this all a mystery to this point in the cycle. The obvious "problem" areas once common across parties are not exactly problematic for Republicans. It could also be said that the perception of delegate selection rules problems is asymmetric across national parties. That may yet change as the cycle develops, but at this point bet on state-level changes over national-level rules changes until anything new bubbles up, something that also differs from how Democrats have handled things in their own rules change track up to now.

Recent posts:

The Nevada State Democratic Party Shake Up and 2024

2020 Presidential Primary and Caucus Movement (Pre-pandemic)

#InvisiblePrimary: Visible -- CPAC 2021

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

See more on our political/electoral consulting venture at FHQ Strategies.     

The Nevada State Democratic Party Shake Up and 2024

The political landscape in Nevada shifted over the weekend. 

Judith Whitmer was elected state party chair of the Nevada Democratic Party which was quickly followed by a mass resignation of most of the state party apparatus. The particulars of the intra-party squabble are less important, however, than the impact the moves may have with respect to electoral politics in upcoming cycles. The elevation of a Bernie Sanders-aligned chair and subsequent loss of party infrastructure is only going to place more strain on the relationship between the state/state party and the Democratic National Committee. Sure, that will affect fundraising and get-out-the-vote efforts in the near term, but Nevada Democrats -- in the state legislature and in the now-departing state party -- have come out of the 2024 gates with a brazen yet flawed vehicle to challenge Iowa and New Hampshire for first-in-the-nation status on the presidential primary calendar moving forward. 

The developments of this past weekend in the Silver state will only serve to further hamper that effort. 

Last month, FHQ asked whether the stars would align for Nevada to take over the spot at the front of the queue on the 2024 presidential primary calendar. A state and its decision makers can be willing to do something -- in this case establish a presidential primary to replace a caucus and schedule the contest early on the calendar -- but are those actors actually able to pull that maneuver off? I cannot speak to the current willingness within what will be a new state party structure, but each move thus far in Nevada in 2021 has made it less likely that the state will be able to successfully move up the calendar and displace Iowa and New Hampshire. 

Take a look at Iowa for a moment. It is a BIG deal that there are dissenting voices in the Hawkeye state these days, dissenting voices suggesting it is time for Iowa (Democrats) to give up their coveted early calendar position and shift away from a caucus/convention system to select and allocate national convention delegates. Part of what has made Iowa successful in keeping its slot at the front is that everyone there -- within the two major state parties, across the two parties and among elected officials -- was on the same page: do whatever it takes to stay first. Again, that there is some break in this is BIG deal. That does not mean that Iowa will lose its position at the top, but it will not help. 

And that is an effort to preserve something that Iowa has held for nearly half a century. Already on the defensive after 2020, Iowans may have some difficulty in continuing to make that case.

Now, go back to Nevada. Democrats in the legislature (and formerly of the state party) are not trying to preserve something, but to gain something. A bill to set a January date for a newly established presidential primary may only agitate the DNC and will certainly give New Hampshire secretary of state Bill Gardner ample time to once again move ahead of any would-be interlopers on their first-in-the-nation status. Layer on top of that potential agitation a state party apparatus that does not as clearly see eye to eye with the national party and one has a recipe for disaster. Or if not disaster, then a (very) problematic path to first-in-the-nation status. 

Certainly, under these circumstances, the DNC would be inclined to continue pushing for a state government-run presidential primary rather than let a state party it is at odds with conduct caucuses early on the 2024 calendar. But even if that new party structure supports the presidential primary, it will not be in a good position to make the pitch that it should be first if is remains at loggerheads with the national party and backs an ineffective primary bill that really only stirs the pot. Other states will likely make these pitches too if the DNC entertains replacing Iowa and/or New Hampshire at the front of the line. And what once looked like a reasonable cross-section of the Democratic Party primary electorate in Nevada may look worse off -- like less of a safe bet -- for having provoked the national party. Other states may begin to look attractive as alternatives. 

And it could also be that the road of least resistance is just maintaining the status quo on the presidential primary calendar. Those first two states may not come off looking too good -- representative -- until one begins to consider what the alternatives are. 

...and more importantly what getting one of those alternatives there would entail. Talk of replacing Iowa and New Hampshire is easy. Replacing them is not. So far in 2021, Nevada has done itself no favors in its attempt to be that alternative.

Recent posts:

2020 Presidential Primary and Caucus Movement (Pre-pandemic)

#InvisiblePrimary: Visible -- CPAC 2021

Nevada Senate Bill Would Establish Consolidated Presidential Primary in June

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

See more on our political/electoral consulting venture at FHQ Strategies.    

2020 Presidential Primary and Caucus Movement (Pre-pandemic)

[Scroll down for analysis below graphic]

For a site named for the phenomenon of states shifting their presidential primary and caucus dates to earlier periods on the calendar often clustered with a number of other states, there was not a significant change between 2016 and 2020. States moved, but it was much more muted in the lead up to 2020 than in other previous cycles like 2008. 

There were five fewer contests in 2020 than in 2016. That was a function of a number of states trading in caucuses for consolidated state government-run primaries. Part of that trade-in was about state parties abandoning caucuses on separate dates -- one for Democrats and one for Republicans -- for, in some cases, newly established primaries (see for example Utah and Washington).

Additionally, whereas 36 states (or state parties) moved contests in 2016, there were only 30 state moves out of 71 contests. [If both Democrats and Republicans used a primary or conducted caucuses on the same date, then those were counted as one contest (unless the moves from one party differed from the other within a state).]

States have largely learned their lesson about frontloading. That era seems to have come to a close after the 2008 cycle. Either they have shifted back to previously held later dates or they have ignored the potential for getting lost in the shuffle among a group of larger states. While there was movement forward on the 2020 presidential primary calendar -- see Arkansas and California -- the average shift among states that moved as the 2020 primaries approached was just -1.47 days, a backward move.

Most of what explains that is not the pandemic. The graphic above accounts for the movement on the calendar before Covid-19 wreaked havoc on the calendar starting in mid-March 2020. Instead, what is driving the average negative movement is a group of Republican state parties either canceling primaries or opting out of them in favor of later caucuses and/or state conventions as the means of selecting and allocating national convention delegates. 

Finally, there were a handful of double moves. Both Arkansas and New York had 2016 primary laws expire at the end of 2016 which reverted each to their previous dates, Arkansas in May and New York in February. The DC Council also moved the primary in the district twice. The first change was to a date one week later on the calendar which the second reversed when the council shifted the contest up two weeks to the first Tuesday in June. On the graphic, the first move is always "underneath" the second and final move. 

NOTE: A separate post on post-pandemic movement is forthcoming.

Recent posts:

#InvisiblePrimary: Visible -- CPAC 2021

Nevada Senate Bill Would Establish Consolidated Presidential Primary in June

#InvisiblePrimary: Visible -- Running for 2024, but Running in 2024?

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

See more on our political/electoral consulting venture at FHQ Strategies.    

#InvisiblePrimary: Visible -- CPAC 2021

Typically, FHQ does not put much stock in Conservative Political Action Conference, as it is one of the more visible mile markers during any invisible primary period on the Republican side. But it is one of those events that has a straw poll of the next presidential nomination race in the GOP for those who are interested in such things. Polls, straw or otherwise, have no real meaning this far out from the 2024 Republican nomination and a certain former president may have an inside track on winning this one of the straw variety in any event. 

However, that does not mean that the confab of conservatives in Orlando is without significance. It just means that there is probably none to be derived from that straw poll. But if one is trying to assess the invisible primary as it is developing, who is there at CPAC and who is not is noteworthy and at least something of an earlier indicator of who is running for and who might be running in 2024.

So who is in Orlando speaking this weekend?

former President Donald Trump

Governor Ron DeSantis (FL)

Senator Ted Cruz (TX)

Senator Tom Cotton (AR)

Senator Rick Scott (FL)

Senator Josh Hawley (MO)

former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo

Governor Kristi Noem (SD)

Again, Trump is likely to dominate the event or at least much of the news coming out of it and overshadow all of the others. And that includes those who are not in attendance and/or speaking. Notable among that group are:

former Vice President Mike Pence

Senator Marco Rubio (FL)

former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley

Governor Larry Hogan (MD)

Surely there are others to list here, but that brief list of no-shows and the uninvited will suffice. They are the ones often discussed in the context of possible 2024 bids. 

Is CPAC the end all be all on the path to the 2024 Republican presidential nomination? Not in 2021 it isn't. But what it does represent is an opportunity to appeal to a particularly active constituency in the Republican primary electorate. And that is an opportunity that some candidates will have and others do not. And that is meaningful even with nearly three years until voters begin to cast votes for their presidential preferences. Will those voters remember CPAC 2021 then? Most likely not. But it may be a part of an aggregation of events and activities that candidates take part in to help form the candidates that they may become by 2023-2024.

The invisible primary marches on.

Recent posts:

Nevada Senate Bill Would Establish Consolidated Presidential Primary in June

#InvisiblePrimary: Visible -- Running for 2024, but Running in 2024?

If It Was So Easy to Change Then It Would Have Changed By Now

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

See more on our political/electoral consulting venture at FHQ Strategies.    

Nevada Senate Bill Would Establish Consolidated Presidential Primary in June

In one corner, there is the recent proposal from majority Democrats in the Nevada Assembly to not only establish a presidential primary in the Silver state, but to schedule it in late January in an effort to challenge for first-in-the-nation status on the presidential primary calendar.

But in the other now is a counterproposal of sorts from nearly the full Republican caucus (including all of the leadership) in the Nevada state Senate. However, instead of being early calendar provocative, the Republican bill introduced last week -- SB 130 -- would similarly establish a presidential primary, but tether it to the primary for state and local offices. That primary currently falls on the second Tuesday in June. 

On timing, then, these two measures could not place the presidential primary further away from one another. Democrats, who are not assured of having an active nomination race in 2024 with an incumbent in the White House, are pushing the envelope in Nevada on the front end of the calendar. But the Republican bill would schedule the new presidential primary -- consolidated with the other primaries -- near the back end of the primary calendar when the GOP may have an active nomination race. [No Democratic contest can be later than the second Tuesday in June, and no Republican primary or caucus can fall on a date after the second Saturday in June.]  

It is a stark contrast, one that breaks with how in-parties and out-parties behave between cycles with respect to their delegate selection rules (on both the national and state levels). The motivation for Republicans is clear. The countermeasure would create a presidential primary, but avoid the costs of funding an all new separate presidential primary election as the Democrats' proposal does. Yet, as with the Democratic bill in the Assembly, this latest bill can also be amended. But would Silver state legislators want to contend with anything other than a June primary for their own renomination contests (if the full consolidated primary was moved to any earlier date upon amendment)? Alternatively, would such a proposal meet the Democrats' wishes of a presidential primary but allow Silver state Republicans to stick with their caucuses for allocating national convention delegates? 

Regardless, Nevada Republicans are in the minority in both chambers of the state legislature, so it is not exactly clear how much leverage they bring to the discussion of the establishment and scheduling of a presidential primary. 

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A link to this legislation has been added to the 2024 FHQ presidential primary calendar.

Recent posts:

#InvisiblePrimary: Visible -- Running for 2024, but Running in 2024?

If It Was So Easy to Change Then It Would Have Changed By Now

 

The Week the Calendar Wars Heated Up

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#InvisiblePrimary: Visible -- Running for 2024, but Running in 2024?

For years now, FHQ has trotted out a fairly simple question during the candidate emergence phase of the invisible primary. Increasingly that emergence occurs -- or more accurately can be seen occurring -- earlier and earlier. But then as now the parsimony of the question creates a powerful lens through which to view (prospective) presidential candidate activity long before primary voters begin to weigh in on just who each party's nominee will be.

Back in 2009, FHQ asked if anyone thought that Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) was not running for the 2012 Republican nomination and followed that up with another distinction. The former Minnesota governor could run for the 2012 nomination in 2009 but the question at that point was whether Pawlenty would actually be running in 2012.

As it turned out Pawlenty did formally announce a bid. But there was more: trips to Iowa, the formation of an exploratory committee, early biographical ads from aligned political action committees. And outside of the candidate's and his campaign's (direct) control there was early polling and general chatter in Republican circles about a Pawlenty bid.

But for all of that activity, Tim Pawlenty never made it to any of the primaries and caucuses in 2012. Instead, his run was derailed by a third place showing in the August 2011 Ames Straw Poll, an event made all the more important because the Pawlenty team had made the Hawkeye state make or break for the former governor. 

Now, why the reminiscence about Tim Pawlenty?

Well, aside from the origin story for the running for but not necessarily in maxim, it speaks to how one should observe the action of (prospective) candidates in the increasing visible but still invisible primary. Candidates run all of the time and many do not get as far or do as much as Tim Pawlenty once did from 2009-2011. Furthermore, candidates need not formally announce as Pawlenty did to have been considered a candidate running for a party's nomination. Take the journey of Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) in 2018-2019. There was never any announcement that he was going to seek the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination. But there was PAC activity, hiring and trips to the usual nomination haunts. There no doubt was other activity that happened more quietly, signals that Brown got from other elites (donors, DNC members, etc.) that did not see the light of day in any reporting. But Brown ran for the 2020 Democratic nomination before ultimately passing.

And there are already signs that this is happening already in the 2024 presidential nomination cycle. There has been no lack of questions about whether both President Biden and former President Trump will run in 2024. In fact, Dave Hopkins had a wonderful piece up just yesterday in response to a Washington Post article about Biden advisors "working under the assumption that he [Biden] will once again top the Democratic ticket in 2024."

As Hopkins said, of course he is. 

And that decision, formal or not, has implications for how other prospective candidates will behave. That is true on the Republican side with respect to what Trump might do. It is not, for example, a secret that former South Carolina governor, Nikki Haley, is running for the 2024 Republican nomination. It just is not. And while Haley may give speeches this and next year and work through her PAC toward electing Republicans across the country in the midterm elections in 2022, none of that guarantees that she will be running in 2024. And that may or may not be because Trump throws his hat back in the ring. 

Yet just because a candidate does not run in any contests does not mean that they did not run for the nomination in that cycle. It just means that roadblocks appeared in any number of forms during the invisible primary instead of voters directly rejecting that candidate in Iowa or New Hampshire or in some other state on down the line on the primary calendar. 

But yes, there are candidates who are running for 2024 even now, three years out.

Recent posts:

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The Week the Calendar Wars Heated Up

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See more on our political/electoral consulting venture at FHQ Strategies.